Prognostic/Clinical Prediction Models: Development of a Clinical Prediction Model for an Ordinal Outcome: The World Health Organization Multicentre Study of Clinical Signs and Etiological Agents of Pneumonia, Sepsis and Meningitis in Young Infants

2005 ◽  
pp. 251-286 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank E. Harrell ◽  
Peter A. Margolis ◽  
Sandy Gove ◽  
Karen E. Mason ◽  
E. Kim Mulholland ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Clinical Signs ◽  
World Health ◽  
Clinical Prediction ◽  
Clinical Prediction Models ◽  
Clinical Prediction Model ◽  
Young Infants ◽  
The World ◽  
Etiological Agents ◽  
Health Organization

scholarly journals Visual Data Analysis and Simulation Prediction for COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia Using SEIR Prediction Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (08) ◽  
pp. 154
Author(s):  
Shakir Khan
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Future Trend ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization

<p>The World Health Organization (WHO) reported the COVID-19 epidemic a global health emergency on January 30 and confirmed its transformation into a pandemic on March 11. China has been the hardest hit since the virus's outbreak, which may date back to late November. Saudi Arabia realized the danger of the Coronavirus in March 2020, took the initiative to take a set of pre-emptive decisions that preceded many countries of the world, and worked to harness all capabilities to confront the outbreak of the epidemic. Several researchers are currently using various mathematical and machine learning-based prediction models to estimate this pandemic's future trend. In this work, the SEIR model was applied to predict the epidemic situation in Saudi Arabia and evaluate the effectiveness of some epidemic control measures, and finally, providing some advice on preventive measures.</p>

scholarly journals Real-time neural network based predictor for cov19 virus spread

PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. e0243189
Author(s):  
Michał Wieczorek ◽  
Jakub Siłka ◽  
Dawid Połap ◽  
Marcin Woźniak ◽  
Robertas Damaševičius
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Numerical Data ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Future Trend ◽  
World Health ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization

Since the epidemic outbreak in early months of 2020 the spread of COVID-19 has grown rapidly in most countries and regions across the World. Because of that, SARS-CoV-2 was declared as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on January 30, 2020, by The World Health Organization (WHO). That’s why many scientists are working on new methods to reduce further growth of new cases and, by intelligent patients allocation, reduce number of patients per doctor, what can lead to more successful treatments. However to properly manage the COVID-19 spread there is a need for real-time prediction models which can reliably support various decisions both at national and international level. The problem in developing such system is the lack of general knowledge how the virus spreads and what would be the number of cases each day. Therefore prediction model must be able to conclude the situation from past data in the way that results will show a future trend and will possibly closely relate to the real numbers. In our opinion Artificial Intelligence gives a possibility to do it. In this article we present a model which can work as a part of an online system as a real-time predictor to help in estimation of COVID-19 spread. This prediction model is developed using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to estimate the future situation by the use of geo-location and numerical data from past 2 weeks. The results of our model are confirmed by comparing them with real data and, during our research the model was correctly predicting the trend and very closely matching the numbers of new cases in each day.

Acute stroke and transient ischaemic attack

2021 ◽  
pp. 175573802110587
Author(s):  
Isabelle Brooks
Keyword(s):  
Acute Stroke ◽  
World Health Organization ◽  
Transient Ischaemic Attack ◽  
Clinical Signs ◽  
World Health ◽  
Cerebral Function ◽  
The World ◽  
Vascular Origin ◽  
Ischaemic Attack ◽  
Health Organization

The World Health Organization defines a stroke as ‘rapidly developing clinical signs of focal (or global) disturbance of cerebral function, with symptoms lasting 24 hours or longer or leading to death, with no apparent cause other than vascular origin’. If the symptoms last less than 24 hours, typically less than 2 hours, then this is classified as a transient ischaemic attack. ‘Brain attack’ is a term that is increasingly used, as the rapid nature of treatment means the differentiating criterion of symptoms lasting at least 24 hours, is often not met before initiation of treatment.

scholarly journals A review of statistical updating methods for clinical prediction models

2016 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 185-197 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ting-Li Su ◽  
Thomas Jaki ◽  
Graeme L Hickey ◽  
Iain Buchan ◽  
Matthew Sperrin
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Healthcare Outcomes ◽  
Clinical Prediction ◽  
Clinical Prediction Models ◽  
Clinical Prediction Model ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Single Strategy ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Dynamic Updating

A clinical prediction model is a tool for predicting healthcare outcomes, usually within a specific population and context. A common approach is to develop a new clinical prediction model for each population and context; however, this wastes potentially useful historical information. A better approach is to update or incorporate the existing clinical prediction models already developed for use in similar contexts or populations. In addition, clinical prediction models commonly become miscalibrated over time, and need replacing or updating. In this article, we review a range of approaches for re-using and updating clinical prediction models; these fall in into three main categories: simple coefficient updating, combining multiple previous clinical prediction models in a meta-model and dynamic updating of models. We evaluated the performance (discrimination and calibration) of the different strategies using data on mortality following cardiac surgery in the United Kingdom: We found that no single strategy performed sufficiently well to be used to the exclusion of the others. In conclusion, useful tools exist for updating existing clinical prediction models to a new population or context, and these should be implemented rather than developing a new clinical prediction model from scratch, using a breadth of complementary statistical methods.

scholarly journals Hospital-based Surveillance for Pediatric Bacterial Meningitis in the Era of the 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine in Ghana

2019 ◽  
Vol 69 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. S89-S96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lorna Awo Renner ◽  
Effua Usuf ◽  
Nuredin Ibrahim Mohammed ◽  
Daniel Ansong ◽  
Thomas Dankwah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
World Health Organization ◽  
Conjugate Vaccine ◽  
Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine ◽  
Clinical Signs ◽  
World Health ◽  
Sentinel Site ◽  
Reference Laboratory ◽  
Vaccine Type ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization

Abstract Background Global surveillance for vaccine preventable invasive bacterial diseases has been set up by the World Health Organization to provide disease burden data to support decisions on introducing pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV). We present data from 2010 to 2016 collected at the 2 sentinel sites in Ghana. Methods Data were collected from children <5 years of age presenting at the 2 major teaching hospitals with clinical signs of meningitis. Cerebrospinal fluid specimens were collected and tested first at the sentinel site laboratory with conventional microbiology methods and subsequently with molecular analysis, at the World Health Organization Regional Reference Laboratory housed at the Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia, for identification of Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, and Neisseria meningitidis, the 3 most common bacteria causing meningitis. Results There were 4008 suspected cases of meningitis during the surveillance period, of which 31 (0.8%) were laboratory confirmed. Suspected meningitis cases decreased from 923 in 2010 to 219 in 2016. Of 3817 patients with available outcome data, 226 (5.9%) died. S. pneumoniae was the most common bacterial pathogen, accounting for 68.5% of confirmed cases (50 of 73). H. influenzae and N. meningitidis accounted for 6.8% (5 of 73) and 21.9% (16 of 73), respectively. The proportion of pneumococcal vaccine serotypes causing meningitis decreased from 81.3% (13 of 16) before the introduction of 13-valent PCV (2010–2012) to 40.0% (8 of 20) after its introduction (2013–2016). Conclusions Cases of suspected meningitis decreased among children <5 years of age between 2010 and 2016, with declines in the proportion of vaccine-type pneumococcal meningitis after the introduction of 13-valent PCV in Ghana.

scholarly journals COVID-19 on the Nile: Review on the Management and Outcomes of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the Arab Republic of Egypt from February to August 2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 1588
Author(s):  
Yai-Ellen Gaye ◽  
Christopher Agbajogu ◽  
Reida El Oakley
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
International Health ◽  
Respiratory Illness ◽  
World Health ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
Health Organization

As the world fights the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the World Health Organization (WHO) reports that over 17 million people globally were infected with SARS-CoV-2 as of 1 August 2020. Although infections are asymptomatic in 80% of cases, severe respiratory illness occurs in 20% of cases, requiring hospitalization and highly specialized intensive care. The WHO, under the International Health Regulations, declared this pandemic a public health emergency of international concern; it has affected nearly all health systems worldwide. The health system in Egypt, similar to many others, was severely challenged when confronted with the need for urgent and major expansion required to manage such a significant pandemic. This review uses publicly available data to provide an epidemiological summary of the COVID-19 pandemic behavior during the first wave of the outbreak in Egypt. The article covers mathematical modeling predictions, Egypt’s healthcare system, economic and social impacts of COVID-19, as well as national responses that were crucial to the initial containment of the pandemic. We observed how the government managed the outbreak by enhancing testing capacity, contact tracing, announcing public health and social measures (PHSMs), as well as allocating extra funds and human resources to contain SARS-COV-2. Prospectively, economic losses from major sources of revenues—tourism, travel, and trade—may be reflected in future timelines, as Egypt continues to control cases and loss of life from COVID-19. Overall, trends indicate that the spread of COVID-19 in Egypt was initially contained. Revalidation of prediction models and follow-up studies may reveal the aftermath of the pandemic and how well it was managed in Egypt.

scholarly journals Covid - 19: Morbidity Structure and Control Measures in Russia

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (S1) ◽  
pp. 13-15
Author(s):  
Lapina Elizaveta Yurievna ◽  
Puzyrev Viktor Gennadievich
Keyword(s):  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Clinical Signs ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Spread Of Infection

are important, and used to be well known, human and animal pathogens.A novel coronavirus was identified at the end of 2019, as the cause of a number of pneumonia cases in city in the Hubei Province of China, Wuhan. Appeared to be a highly contagious anthroponotic infection. It rapidly caused an epidemic throughout China, hereafter an increasing number of cases in other countries throughout the world. All age groups, including children, are susceptible to the virus, but this age group is more likely to be asymptomatic. However, children may play a great epidemiological role in the spread of the virus with the absence of clinical signs of respiratory disease. Elderly people are the most severe carriers of the virus, as well as people with concomitant diseases. In February 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) designated the disease COVID-19, which stands for coronavirus disease 2019 [4]. The virus that causes COVID-19 is designated severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); before, it was referred to as 2019-nCoV. We conducted meta-analysis of currently available data to summarize knowledge about the current epidemic in Russia, the dynamic of spread of the infection and management of the disease. Quarantine measures, which were carried out rather quickly, avoided the rapid spread of infection and thus contributed to a gradual increase in the load on medical facilities. As a result, most hospitals had time to prepare for an increased number of patients with coronavirus infection.

scholarly journals Hand Hygiene during Pandemic

2021 ◽  
pp. 51-59
Author(s):  
Aditya Hiware
Keyword(s):  
Hand Hygiene ◽  
Disease Control ◽  
Clinical Signs ◽  
World Health ◽  
Short Article ◽  
The Public ◽  
The World ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Defensive Measures

After authoritatively announced as a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO), radical measures to limit human developments to contain the COVID-19 contamination are utilized by the greater part of the nations. Keeping up high close to home cleanliness by continuous handwashing and being cautious of clinical signs are generally prescribed to diminish the sickness trouble. The public and global wellbeing organizations, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the WHO, have given rules to counteraction and treatment ideas. Here, in this short article, in view of accessible clinical data, the writer examines why handwashing could be defensive of COVID-19 contaminations. Albeit a definite and inside and out conversation of different preventive and defensive measures is past the extent of this article, this survey will zero in on the utility of continuous handwashing in limiting the danger of spreading COVID-19 contamination

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