scholarly journals Climate Change and Drought Drivers: Identification of drought drivers and climate extreme using regression-based algorithms

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Israel Ropo Orimoloye
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Extreme

Variability Analysis of Climate Extreme Index using Downscaled Multi-models and Grid-based CMIP5 Climate Change Scenario Data

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 123-132
Author(s):  
Jae-Pil Cho ◽  
Jae-Uk Kim ◽  
Soon-Kun Choi ◽  
Sye-Woon Hwang ◽  
Hui-Cheul Jung
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Extreme Index ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
Variability Analysis ◽  
Grid Based

scholarly journals Biodiversity and climate change adaptation through non-discrete architectural spaces and architectures

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie Davidova ◽  
Dana Rakova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
Research Survey ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Systemic Process ◽  
Discrete Spaces ◽  
Systemic Design

The research claims that traditions are not static. They develop and adapt based on the present situation. Due to the recent climate extremes coming to formally mild climate locations, their architectures can learn from traditional ones from more climate extreme locations. The present systemic design study on semi-interior, ‘non-discrete spaces’ (Hensel, 2013; Hensel & Turko, 2015), of Norwegian traditional architectures, so called ‘svalgangs’ and ‘skuts’ examine its reuse for today climate change adaptation and support of biodiversity that is currently decreasing. Our agricultural land become so toxic, that its species are recently moving and adapting for life in the cities. The discussed traditional spaces offer various boundary penetration of its surrounding environment while providing mediation of its biotic and abiotic agency. These do not cover only anthropocentric benefits for its users such as light and climate comfort but also offer opportunities of communication with other species or their sheltering. This practitioners’ historical research survey motivated by design co-developes its own systemic process based methodology Systemic Approach to Architectural Performance that originates from ‘Systems Oriented Design’ (Sevaldson, 2013b) and ‘Time Based Design’ (Sevaldson, 2004). Where, this ‘non-anthropocentric architecture’ (Hensel, 2012) is in over-evolving co-design with ambient environment’s abiotic and biotic agents, including humans.

scholarly journals Trend analysis of climate change compound indices in Iran

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Roshani ◽  
Fatemeh Parak ◽  
Hossein Esmaili
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Spatial Coherence ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
Small Areas ◽  
Thermal Climate ◽  
Tourism Climate

Abstract The time-placement scheme of climate extreme changes is important. In this regard, a set of a compound indices derived using daily resolution climatic time series data is examined to assess climate change in Iran. The compound indices were examined for 47 synoptic meteorological stations during 1981–2015. The results show that most stations experienced a negative trend for the cool/dry (CD) and cool/wet (CW) index and a positive trend in CW was observed in some dispersed small areas. Both warm/dry (WD) and warm/wet (WW) indices have similar behavior, but the magnitude and spatial consistency of WW days were much less than WD days. The results show that more than 80% of stations experienced a decrease in the annual occurrence of the cold modes and an increase in the annual occurrence of the warm modes. On the other hand, universal thermal climate index (UTCI) change demonstrated a significant increase in the annual occurrence of strong heat stress (32–38 °C) and significant decrease in the annual occurrence of no thermal stress class (9–26 °C). Moreover, trends in tourism climate index (TCI), including TCI≥ 60 and TCI≥ 80, showed similar changes but with weak spatial coherence.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on rawa river water source in lake Lindu watershed, Central Sulawesi, Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 276 ◽  
pp. 04003
Author(s):  
I Wayan Sutapa ◽  
Muhammad Galib Ishak ◽  
Vera Wim Andiese
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Water ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Water Discharge ◽  
Water Source ◽  
Soil Water Storage ◽  
Research Station ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
Projected Changes

Global Climate change has been discussed in the High-Level Conference in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in 1992 and has given more impacts in the world. One of the global climate exchanges is the rising of intensity and frequency of climate extreme which included drought, flood, and hurricane. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of climate change on evapotranspiration and rainfall for river water discharge of Rawa. The investigation has been carried out using daily data and analyzed on a daily, monthly and yearly. The rain stations that represent the location of this research are Palolo, Kulawi, and Wuasa. Climatological station nearest to the research station used Bora. Climate trends and projected changes in the method of Makesens analysis (Mann-Kendall, Sens) and the correlation of rainfall and evapotranspiration discharge used linear regression equation. Similarly, the correlation between changes in soil water storage with rainfall, evapotranspiration, and discharge was analyzed in a linear manner. The conclusion of this study is the climate changes in the River of Rawa watershed was characterized by slowly increasing temperature, increasing rainfall, and decreasing discharge.

Twenty First Century Climate Extremes Projection and Climate Vulnerability Risk Assessment in Homogeneous Climatic Zones using high Resolution Climate Data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Firdos Khan ◽  
Jürgen Pilz ◽  
Shaukat Ali ◽  
Sher Muhammad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Bayesian Model Averaging ◽  
Development Program ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climatic Zones ◽  
Change Assessment ◽  
Climate Change Assessment ◽  
Increasing Trends

<p> Climate change assessment plays a pivotal role in impact assessment studies for better planning and management in different areas. A three-steps-integrated approach is used for climate change assessment. In the first step, homogeneous climatic zones were developed by combining two statistical approaches, cluster analysis and L-moment on the basis of Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI).  A set of GCMs was selected for each climate zone by incorporating Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), using the outputs of fourteen GCMs for maximum, minimum temperature and precipitation. The seven best GCMs were downscaled to higher resolution using statistical methods and considered for climate extremes assessment for each zone. The performances of GCMs are different for different climate variables, however, in some cases there is coincidence. Climate extremes were analyzed for the baseline and future periods F1 (2011-2040), F2 (2041-2070) and F3 (2071-2100) for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. For precipitation under the RCP4.5, most of climate extremes have decreasing/increasing trends. Further, zone-01, zone-02, and zone-03 show increasing trends while zone-04 and zone-05 have mixed (decreasing/increasing) trends in climate extremes for all periods. For temperature, sixteen climate extreme indices were considered, some important indices are: GSL, SU25, TMAXmean, TMINmean, TN10p, TN90P, TX10p, TX90P, TNN, TNX, TXN, TXX. GSL has mixed trend (increasing/decreasing) depending on cold or hot climate zones. Similarly, TN10P and TN90P also show decreasing and increasing trends, respectively, while TX10P and TX90P have decreasing and increasing trends, respectively, in RCP4.5. TNN, TNX have mixed trends and TXN, TXX have mostly increasing trends except of few time periods in which they have decreasing and insignificant trends. The overall precipitation does not show significant changes, however, the projected intensities and frequencies are changing in future and require special consideration to save infrastructure, prevent casualties and other losses. More importantly, this study will help to address different Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nation Development Program related to climate change, hunger, environment, food security, and energy sectors.</p>

First results of model sensitivity studies on the influence of global changes to the North and Baltic Seas

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Birte-Marie Ehlers ◽  
Frank Janssen ◽  
Janna Abalichin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Coastal Region ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
Model Sensitivity ◽  
The North ◽  
First Results ◽  
Sensitivity Studies

<p>The “German Strategy for Adaption to Climate Change” (DAS) has been established as the political framework to climate change adaption in Germany. One task of the “Adaption Action Plan of the DAS” is the installation of a permanent service of seamless climate prediction. The pilot project “Projection Service for Waterways and Shipping” (ProWaS) prepares an operational forecasting and projection service for climate, extreme weather and coastal and inland waterbodies. The target region is the North Sea and Baltic Sea with focus on the German coastal region and its estuaries.</p><p>ProWaS provides regional model setups for the North and Baltic Seas. To figure out technical issues and to validate the model setups, 20-year hindcast simulations forced with a regional reanalysis (COSMO-REA6 (Bollmeyer et al., 2015)) were carried out.</p><p>These simulations are used as basis for sensitivity studies with reference to global change scenarios. To evaluate the effect of global changes on the coastal regions especially in the North and Baltic Seas, model studies regarding global sea level rise, changes in global ocean and air temperature, changes in global salinity and changes of the regional river runoffs have been performed. Therefore, boundary conditions of a hindcast simulation are adapted to different change conditions and sensitivity studies for different periods have been carried out. First results of these investigations on model sensitivity studies are presented. These results will be used as a basis for further development of climate projection models.</p>

Implementation of NEMO v4.0.1 as ocean component for the regional climate modeling framework

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Janna Abalichin ◽  
Birte-Marie Ehlers ◽  
Frank Janssen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Modeling ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
The Impact

<p>The ‘German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change’ (DAS) provides the political framework to climate change mitigation and adaptation in Germany. The associated ‘Adaption Action Plan’ envisages the establishment of an operational forecasting and projection service for climate, extreme weather and coastal and inland waterbodies. This service is intended to make use of a regional climate modeling framework, with NEMO v4.0.(1) as the ocean component. The atmospheric component will be provided by the German Weather Service (either the current weather forecasting model ICON or COSMO will be used) and will be coupled to NEMO after testing and calibration of NEMO on the regional scale.</p><p>The area of interest includes besides the North Sea and the Baltic Sea the entire North-West-Shelf to take into account cross-shelf transport, the water exchange between North Sea and Baltic Sea and the impact of North Atlantic weather systems on the internal dynamics of the seas. One focus area will be German Bight, well known for its large tidal flats, which make wetting & drying a desirable model feature, which will be tested in future. The used/implemented bathymetry includes the up to date measurements of the sea floor from the EMODNET network.</p><p>To achieve a proper description of the dynamics in this region the model has to be calibrated with regard to the timing and amplitude of the water levels in the coastal waters, the water inflow through the Danish straits, the thermal stratification as well as the seasonality and thickness of the sea ice in the Northern Baltic Sea.</p><p>These efforts are carried out in the pilot project ‘Projection Service for Waterways and Shipping’ (ProWaS).</p>

scholarly journals Characterisation of Vegetation Response to Climate Change: A Review

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 7265
Author(s):  
Gbenga Abayomi Afuye ◽  
Ahmed Mukalazi Kalumba ◽  
Israel Ropo Orimoloye
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
Vegetation Response ◽  
Ecological Conservation ◽  
Sustainable Planning ◽  
Key Policy ◽  
Risks Assessment ◽  
National Governments

Climate change extreme events have consequential impacts that influence the responses of vegetation dynamics as well as ecosystem functioning and sustainable human well-being. Therefore, vegetation response to climate change (VRCC) needs to be explored to foster specific-organised management programmes towards ecological conservation and targeted restoration policy to various climate extreme threats. This review aimed to explore the existing literature to characterise VRCC and to identify solutions and techniques fundamental in designing strategies for targeted effective adaptation and mitigation to achieve sustainable planning outcomes. Accordingly, this review emphasised recent theoretical and practical research on the vegetation-climate responses and their related impacts in the wake of climate change and its debilitating impacts on vegetation. Consequently, this study proposes the Information-based model (IBM), needed to examine Factors–forms of Impacts–Solutions (Techniques)–Risks assessment to identify and provide insights about VRCC in a given region. In conclusion, two enablers of adaptive indicators and the novel systems-based serve as a key policy formulation for sustainability in strengthening the goals of global involvement of local and sub-national governments and institutions in the effective management of vegetation and ecosystem protection.

scholarly journals Climate change indicators software for computing climate change indices for agriculture

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (17) ◽  
pp. 343
Author(s):  
Francisco Bautista ◽  
Aristeo Pacheco ◽  
Inna Dubrovina
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Climate Anomalies ◽  
Large Sets ◽  
Daily Weather Data ◽  
Analytical Tools

Climatic anomalies affect agricultural production, so the identification of climate change at the local level is a pressing task. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has generated indices that allow the identification of extreme climate events. Recent studies of weather and climate variation have increasingly used the climate extreme indices defined by the IPCC. This article dwells upon the ICC (climate change indicators) software written in the Java language which is a convenient tool for storing and processing large sets of daily weather data. The software allows the calculation of 27 climate change indices and four indices for growing vines. Built-in analytical tools help identify trends and climate anomalies on different time intervals. The application is additionally supplied with important functionality for statistical data processing and visualization. Tools that help analyzing climate change can foster wiser strategic decision-making in the management of agriculture and ecosystems.

scholarly journals Risk Mapping for the Sustainable Protection of Cultural Heritage in Extreme Changing Environments

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 700 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Sardella ◽  
Elisa Palazzi ◽  
Jost von Hardenberg ◽  
Carlo Del Grande ◽  
Paola De Nuntiis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Cultural Heritage ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Web Gis ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Impact

Cultural heritage is widely recognized to be at risk due to the impact of climate change and associated hazards, such as events of heavy rain, flooding, and drought. User-driven solutions are urgently required for sustainable management and protection of monumental complexes and related collections exposed to changes of extreme climate. With this purpose, maps of risk-prone areas in Europe and in the Mediterranean Basin have been produced by an accurate selection and analysis of climate variables (daily minimum and maximum temperature—Tn and Tx, daily cumulated precipitation—RR) and climate-extreme indices (R20mm, R95pTOT, Rx5 day, CCD, Tx90p) defined by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Indices (ETCCDI). Maps are available to users via an interactive Web GIS (Geographic Information System) tool, which provides evaluations based on historical observations (high-resolution gridded data set of daily climate over Europe—E-OBS, 25 km) and climate projections (regional climate models—RCM, ~12 km) for the near and far future, under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The tool aims to support public authorities and private organizations in the decision making process to safeguard at-risk cultural heritage. In this paper, maps of risk-prone areas of heavy rain in Central Europe (by using R20mm index) are presented and discussed as example of the outputs achievable by using the Web GIS tool. The results show that major future variations are always foreseen for the 30-year period 2071–2100 under the pessimistic scenario (RCP 8.5). In general, the coastal area of the Adriatic Sea, the Northern Italy, and the Alps are foreseen to experience the highest variations in Central Europe.

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