scholarly journals Methods and Technologies for Mastering Uncertainty

2021 ◽  
pp. 209-364
Author(s):  
Peter Groche ◽  
Eberhard Abele ◽  
Nassr Al-Baradoni ◽  
Sabine Bartsch ◽  
Christian Bölling ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Product Life Cycle ◽  
Phase Boundaries ◽  
Technical Aspects ◽  
Specific Approach ◽  
Propagation Of Uncertainty ◽  
Subsequent Chapter ◽  
Process Chains ◽  
Technical Systems ◽  
Identification Analysis

AbstractUncertainty affects all phases of the product life cycle of technical systems, from design and production to their usage, even beyond the phase boundaries. Its identification, analysis and representation are discussed in the previous chapter. Based on the gained knowledge, our specific approach on mastering uncertainty can be applied. These approaches follow common strategies that are described in the subsequent chapter, but require individual methods and technologies. In this chapter, first legal and technical aspects for mastering uncertainty are discussed. Then, techniques for product design of technical systems under uncertainty are presented. The propagation of uncertainty is analysed for particular examples of process chains. Finally, semi-active and active technical systems and their relation to uncertainty are discussed.

scholarly journals Our Specific Approach on Mastering Uncertainty

2021 ◽  
pp. 43-111
Author(s):  
Peter F. Pelz ◽  
Robert Feldmann ◽  
Christopher M. Gehb ◽  
Peter Groche ◽  
Florian Hoppe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Uncertainty Propagation ◽  
Main Topic ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Robust Optimisation ◽  
Specific Approach ◽  
Process Chains ◽  
Technical Systems ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Dynamic Time

AbstractThis chapter serves as an introduction to the main topic of this book, namely to master uncertainty in technical systems. First, the difference of our approach to previous ones is highlighted. We then discuss process chains as an important type of technical systems, in which uncertainty propagates along the chain. Five different approaches to master uncertainty in process chains are presented: uncertainty identification, uncertainty propagation, robust optimisation, sensitivity analysis and model adaption. The influence of the process on uncertainty and methods depends on whether it is dynamic/time-varying and/or active. This brings us to the main strategies for mastering uncertainty: robustness, flexibility and resilience. Finally, three different concrete technical systems that are used to demonstrate our methods are presented.

Analyzing common approaches of accident models for risk management in socio-technical systems

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Kiwan ◽  
D.V. Berezkin ◽  
M. Raad ◽  
B. Rasheed
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Complex Systems ◽  
Human Error ◽  
Practical Importance ◽  
Individual Characteristics ◽  
Sociotechnical Systems ◽  
Technical Aspects ◽  
The Social ◽  
Technical Systems ◽  
Traditional Approaches

Statement of a problem. One of the main tasks today is to prevent accidents in complex systems, which requires determining their cause. In this regard, several theories and models of the causality of accidents are being developed. Traditional approaches to accident modeling are not sufficient for the analysis of accidents occurring in complex environments such as socio-technical systems, since an accident is not the result of individual component failure or human error. Therefore, we need more systematic methods for the investigation and modeling of accidents. Purpose. Conduct a comparative analysis of accident models in complex systems, identify the strengths and weaknesses of each of these models, and study the feasibility of their use in risk management in socio-technical systems. The paper analyzes the main approaches of accident modeling and their limitations in determining the cause-and-effect relationships and dynamics of modern complex systems. the methodologies to safety and accident models in sociotechnical systems based on systems theory are discussed. The complexity of sociotechnical systems requires new methodologies for modeling the development of emergency management. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the socio-technical system as a whole and to focus on the simultaneous consideration of the social and technical aspects of the systems. When modeling accidents, it is necessary to take into account the social structures and processes of social interaction, the cultural environment, individual characteristics of a person, such as their abilities and motivation, as well as the engineering design and technical aspects of systems. Practical importance. Based on analyzing various techniques for modeling accidents, as well as studying the examples used in modeling several previous accidents and review the results of this modeling, it is concluded that it is necessary to improve the modeling techniques. The result was the appearance of hybrid models of risk management in socio-technical systems, which we will consider in detail in our next work.

scholarly journals Outlook

2021 ◽  
pp. 457-464
Author(s):  
Peter F. Pelz ◽  
Peter Groche ◽  
Marc E. Pfetsch ◽  
Maximilian Schaeffner
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Product Life Cycle ◽  
Mechanical Engineering ◽  
Applied Mathematics ◽  
Bertolt Brecht ◽  
Engineering Science ◽  
Product Life ◽  
Link Type ◽  
Technical Systems

AbstractBertolt Brecht once closed a text with the words “We are disappointed to see the curtain close and all questions are left unanswered” [1]. In this book, it has become clear that uncertainty is immanent in the product life cycle of technical systems in mechanical engineering from (B) production, (C) usage, (D) reuse to (E) sourcing. The latter is the starting phase of the following sequence B, C, D, E. Uncertainty has been relevant since the beginning of the industrialisation, cf. Theodor Fontane’s ballad ‘The Tay Bridge’ quoted in Chap. 10.1007/978-3-030-78354-9_1 and this will continue to be so. Hence, we will never see “the curtain close”, but a perpetual contribution of engineering science, applied mathematics, law and further branches of science to master uncertainty in mechanical engineering.

scholarly journals Analysis, Quantification and Evaluation of Uncertainty

2021 ◽  
pp. 113-207
Author(s):  
Maximilian Schaeffner ◽  
Eberhard Abele ◽  
Reiner Anderl ◽  
Christian Bölling ◽  
Johannes Brötz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Model Uncertainty ◽  
Product Life Cycle ◽  
Mechanical Engineering ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
Product Life ◽  
Technical Systems

AbstractThis chapter describes the various approaches to analyse, quantify and evaluate uncertainty along the phases of the product life cycle. It is based on the previous chapters that introduce a consistent classification of uncertainty and a holistic approach to master the uncertainty of technical systems in mechanical engineering. Here, the following topics are presented: the identification of uncertainty by modelling technical processes, the detection and handling of data-induced conflicts, the analysis, quantification and evaluation of model uncertainty as well as the representation and visualisation of uncertainty. The different approaches are discussed and demonstrated on exemplary technical systems.

The Whitehead Decomposition

2021 ◽  
pp. 95-102
Author(s):  
Xiaoyi Cui ◽  
Boldizsár Kalmár ◽  
Patrick Orson ◽  
Nathan Sunukjian
Keyword(s):  
Euclidean Space ◽  
Real Line ◽  
Embedding Theorem ◽  
The Real ◽  
Subsequent Chapter ◽  
Simply Connected

‘The Whitehead Decomposition’ introduces this historically significant decomposition. Not only is the quotient of the 3-sphere by the Whitehead decomposition not homeomorphic to the 3-sphere, it is not even a manifold. In order to detect this curious fact, the notion of a noncompact space being simply connected at infinity is introduced. The chapter also describes the Whitehead manifold, which is a contractible 3-manifold not homeomorphic to Euclidean space. While the Whitehead decomposition does not shrink, its product with the real line does, as is proved in this chapter; in other words, the quotient of the 3-sphere by the Whitehead decomposition is a manifold factor. The proof of the disc embedding theorem utilizes Bing–Whitehead decompositions, which may be understood to be a mix between the Whitehead decomposition and the Bing decomposition from a previous chapter. In a subsequent chapter, precisely when Bing–Whitehead decompositions shrink is explained.

GUIDELINE FOR ORIENTED SYSTEMS ENGINEERING PROCESS IN SMALL AND MEDIUM SIZED ENTERPRISES

2015 ◽  
Vol 76 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anja Czaja ◽  
Roman Dumitrescu
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Systems Engineering ◽  
Product Life Cycle ◽  
Development Process ◽  
Product Development Process ◽  
Engineering Process ◽  
Comprehensive Understanding ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Cycle Systems ◽  
Technical Systems

Technical systems of tomorrow will go beyond current traditional mechatronics designs by incorporating inherent intelligence. This adds high demands on the product development process, such as the need for a comprehensive understanding of the system and consideration of the full product life-cycle. Systems engineering (SE) is an approach that has a potential to fulfill these requirements. However, until now it could not be applied through a wide range of different industries and segments, especially in small and medium sized enterprises. This paper discusses different obstacles for the use of SE and presents a concept for a systems engineering guideline to face these challenges. The aim of the systems engineering guideline is to enable a target-oriented application of systems engineering methods and tools. The objective is to overcome the barriers of introduction of SE for enterprises. It links a design process to methods and tools in the field of systems engineering.  

Large Technical Systems

2021 ◽  
pp. 91-106
Author(s):  
Muhammed Can ◽  
Halid Kaplan
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Big Data ◽  
Smart Cities ◽  
Technical System ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Power Networks ◽  
Technical Aspects ◽  
Theoretical Approaches ◽  
Big Data Applications ◽  
Technical Systems

In recent years, artificial intelligence has become a new normal in the modern world. Even though there are still limitations and it remains to be premature both in terms of applications and theoretical approaches, AI has a huge potential to shift various systems from healthcare to transportation. Needless to say, smart cities are also significant for AI's development. IoT, big data applications, and power networks bring a new understanding of how we live and what the future will be like when AI is adapted to smart cities. However, it is highly misleading to focus on AI itself in this manner. Rather, it should be considered as a part of the ‘Large Technical System'. In this vein, the chapter will ask the following questions: To what extent might AI contribute the power networks of smart cities? How can LTS theory explain this evolution both in terms of technical aspects and technopolitics?

Algorithm Machine

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Broeckmann
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Human Experience ◽  
The Other ◽  
History Of ◽  
Machine Art ◽  
Technical Systems ◽  
The 1950S ◽  
The Aesthetic ◽  
Determining Factor

This chapter discusses the ways in which twentieth-century artists have engaged with the aesthetic dimensions of algorithms and machine autonomy. It extends the narrative on the history of machine art from the previous chapter, beyond the program of Hultén’s 1968 “Machine” exhibition. It explains how the dialogue between art and cybernetics has evolved from the 1950s cybernetic artworks of Nicolas Schöffer, through the 1968 exhibition “Cybernetic Serendipity” and Jack Burnham’s concept of Systems Aesthetics, to the more contemporary software and robotic artworks of Max Dean, Seiko Mikami, and others. A focus is placed on the work of Canadian artist David Rokeby who has explored the aesthetics of the human encounter and interaction with technical systems since the 1980s. The analysis aims at adding two further aspects of the aesthetics of machines to the list of five such aspects developed in the previous chapter: one is the aspect of “interactivity”, which adds the dimension of a charged dialogue and exchange between human and machine; and the other is the aspect of “machine autonomy”, which becomes a determining factor in the human experience of increasingly independent and self-referential technical systems.

Techno-economic analysis of activities to improve the reliability of complex systems

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 39-55
Author(s):  
Igor G Panin ◽  
Elena K. Volkova ◽  
Konstantin V Shchurin
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Economic Analysis ◽  
Complex Systems ◽  
Optimization Model ◽  
Product Life Cycle ◽  
Product Life ◽  
Complex Technical Systems ◽  
Technical Systems ◽  
The Individual

Developed a comprehensive methodology for the techno-economic analysis of the reliability of complex technical systems as a set of basic components reliability - reliability, durability, serviceability and persistence. Highlights the individual calculation factors, on the basis of which it is possible to create an adequate integrated mathematical model which takes into account the stages of creation, implementation and consumption of reliability in the context of integrating optimization model based on maintaining a designated level of performance reliability at all stages of the product life cycle.

Fortpflanzung von Unsicherheit in Prozessketten*/Propagation of uncertainty in process chains consisting of forming and machining operations

2018 ◽  
Vol 108 (01-02) ◽  
pp. 84-90
Author(s):  
C. Bölling ◽  
F. Hoppe ◽  
F. Geßner ◽  
M. Knoll ◽  
E. Prof. Abele ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Value Chain ◽  
Process Simulation ◽  
Research Centre ◽  
Machining Processes ◽  
Forming Process ◽  
Propagation Of Uncertainty ◽  
Process Chains ◽  
Orbital Forming ◽  
Industrial Value Chain ◽  
Formed Part

Aufeinanderfolgende Umform- und Zerspanungsprozesse stellen im industriellen Umfeld eine typische Wertschöpfungskette dar. Die Auswirkungen von Unsicherheit werden in solchen Prozessketten bislang nur in Einzelprozessen untersucht. Gegenstand der Untersuchungen im Sonderforschungsbereich 805 ist die Entwicklung einer verketteten, geregelten Prozesskette über die unterschiedlichen Bearbeitungsoperationen hinweg. In einem ersten Schritt wird im Rahmen dieses Aufsatzes die Verkettung eines Taumelprozesses mit einer nachfolgenden Reiboperation in einer Simulation untersucht. Die Geometrie der umgeformten Bauteile wird dazu mittels einer entwickelten Schnittstelle in ein passendes Format umgewandelt. Bei der Simulation der Reibbearbeitung wird der Einfluss der Schneidengeometrie sowie unterschiedlicher Bearbeitungsstrategien auf die Auslenkung des Werkzeuges untersucht.   Successive forming and machining processes represent a common industrial value chain. By now, the effect of uncertainty on these process chains has solely been examined with regard to single processes. The research subject of the Collaborative Research Centre 805 is the development of an interlinked closed-loop controlled process chain consisting of various processing operations. This paper presents the investigation results of an orbital forming process simulation succeeded by a reaming operation. An interface has been designed that converts the geometry of the formed part into a suitable format for the subsequent reaming process simulation. By means of the coupled simulation the influence of cutting edge geometry and machining strategies on tool deflection is examined.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document