scholarly journals Uncertainty and Complexity: Towards Model-Based Demography

Author(s):  
Jakub Bijak

AbstractThis chapter focuses on the broad methodological and philosophical underpinnings of the Bayesian model-based approach to studying migration. Starting from reflections on the uncertainty and complexity in demography and, in particular, migration studies, the focus moves to the shifting role of formal modelling, from merely describing, to predicting and explaining population processes. Of particular importance are the gaps in understanding asylum migration flows, which are some of the least predictable while at the same time most consequential forms of human mobility. The well-recognised theoretical void of demography as a discipline does not help, especially given the lack of empirical micro-foundations in formal modelling. Here, we analyse possible solutions to theoretical shortcomings of demography and migration studies from the point of view of the philosophy of science, looking at the inductive, deductive and abductive approaches to scientific reasoning. In that spirit, the final section introduces and extends a research programme of model-based demography.

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-52
Author(s):  
Michel Beine ◽  
Lionel Jeusette

Abstract Recent surveys of the literature on climate change and migration emphasize the important diversity of outcomes and approaches of the empirical studies. In this paper, we conduct a meta-analysis in order to investigate the role of the methodological choices of these empirical studies in finding some particular results concerning the role of climatic factors as drivers of human mobility. We code 51 papers representative of the literature in terms of methodological approaches. This results in the coding of more than 85 variables capturing the methodology of the main dimensions of the analysis at the regression level. These dimensions include authors' reputation, type of mobility, measures of mobility, type of data, context of the study, econometric methods, and last but not least measures of the climatic factors. We look at the influence of these characteristics on the probability of finding any effect of climate change, a displacement effect, an increase in immobility, and evidence in favor of a direct vs. an indirect effect. Our results highlight the role of some important methodological choices, such as the frequency of the data on mobility, the level of development, the measures of human mobility and of the climatic factors as well as the econometric methodology.


2009 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-84
Author(s):  
Russell King

This paper examines the changing role of islands in the age of globalization and in an era of enhanced and diversified mobility. There are many types of islands, many metaphors of insularity, and many types of migration, so the interactions are far from simple. The ‘mobilities turn’ in migration studies recognizes the diversification in motivations and time-space regimes of human migration. After brief reviews of island studies and of migration studies, and the power of geography to capture and distil the interdisciplinarity and relationality of these two study domains, the paper explores various facets of the generally intense engagement that islands have with migration. Two particular scenarios are identified for islands and migration in the global era: the heuristic role of islands as ‘spatial laboratories’ for the study of diverse migration processes in microcosm; and the way in which, especially in the Mediterranean and near-Atlantic regions, islands have become critical locations in the geopolitics of irregular migration routes. The case of Malta is taken to illustrate some of these new insular migration dynamics.


2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 164-174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Vannini ◽  
Ricardo Gomez ◽  
Megan Carney ◽  
Katharyne Mitchell

We reflect on the experience of a cross-disciplinary collaboration between scholars in the fields of geography, anthropology, communication, and information studies, and suggest paths for future research on sanctuary and migration studies that are based on interdisciplinary approaches. After situating sanctuary in a wider theoretical, historical, and global context, we discuss the origins and contemporary expressions of sanctuary both within and beyond faith-based organizations. We include the role of collective action, personal stories, and artistic expressions as part of the new sanctuary movement, as well as the social and political forms of outrage that lead to rekindling protest and protection of undocumented immigrants, refugees, and other minorities and vulnerable populations. We conclude with a discussion on the urgency for interdisciplinary explorations of these kinds of new, contemporary manifestations of sanctuary, and suggest paths for further research to deepen the academic dialogue on the topic.


2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Russell King

Abstract This commentary paper starts by questioning the assumption that migration means international migration, and goes on to affirm that migration studies has indeed come of age as a coherent if highly diverse research field. Several emerging epistemic communities are identified: migration and development; gender and migration; lifestyle migration; and youth and student migrations. Finally, I argue that the role of geography in the study of migration has been under-valued.


2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Mehmet Gökay Özerim ◽  
Deniz Eroğlu Utku ◽  
Pınar Yazgan

Dünya artan bir şekilde birbiriyle daha derinden bağlantılı hale gelirken, insan hareketliliği bu süreci etkileyen ve süreçten etkilenen önemli bir kavram olarak karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Küreselleşme olarak anılan bu hızlı dönüşüm süreci, insan hareketliliğine ivme sağlamaktadır. Bununla birlikte süreç diğer yandan bu hareketliliği daha düzenli, daha kontrol edilebilir hale getirip, kayıpların minimuma indirilmesinde etkin inisiyatiflerin geliştirilmesi konusunda uluslararası işbirliği için zorlayıcı nedenler ortaya çıkarmaktadır. Zira Suriye krizi ile bir kez daha gün yüzüne çıktığı üzere hareketlilik, salt bölgesel çabalarla değil, küresel boyutta ele alınması gereken bir kavramdır. Bu vesile ile ortaya çıkan bir diğer unsur ise, geliştirilecek inisiyatiflerin yine salt hedef ülke odaklı değil, kitlelerin kırılganlıklarının göz önünde bulundurularak tasarlanması gerekliliğidir. Bu noktada, 2016’da BM öncülüğünde alanda sorumluluk paylaşımına yön verecek, göç ve mülteci kavramlarını beraberce ele alacak bir mutabakatın tamamlanması için BM üye ülkelerinin bir araya gelmeleri oldukça önemli bir adımdır. Bu adım, içerisinde 23 temel hedefi barındıran Küresel Göç Mutabakatı’nın 2018 Aralık ayında tamamlanması ile nihayetlenmiştir. Başlangıçtaki katılım hevesini yitirse de, umut veren içeriği ile alana yeni bir soluk getireceğine inandığımız bu Mutabakatı Mülteci Mutabakatı ile birlikte dergimizin bu sayısının sunuş bölümünde mercek altına aldık. Analizimiz, Göç ve Mülteci Mutabakatları’nı hızlı değişim süreci olarak küreselleşme bağlamında çatışma ve kriz kavramları çerçevesinde incelemektedir. Burada eleştirel bir yaklaşım ile mutabakatlara yönelik beklentileri ele alırken, metinde yer alan kısıtlara da değindik. Mutabakatların hareketliliğe bütüncül yaklaşan dilini ve uluslararası işbirliği çabalarının bir yansıması olmasını oldukça değerli görmekle beraber, hedef kitlenin kırılganlıklarına ve ihtiyaçlarına cevap verme noktasında gelişmeye ihtiyaç duyduğunu düşünmekteyiz.ABSTRACT IN ENGLISHEditorial: Global Migration and Refugee Compacts as an International Response to Mass Population Movements in Conflicts and CrisesThe World increasingly becomes more integrated. In this process, human mobility appears as one of the important elements that affect the process of integration as well as the one that is affected by this integration. This rapid transformation process, which is called globalisation, accelerates human mobility. On the other hand, it also reveals certain compelling reasons for international solidarity in order to develop initiatives that make mobility more regular and manageable as well as are effective to decrease deaths. Yet, the Syrian crisis showed that mobility is a concept that requires international effort; solely regional one is not enough. It is also clear that the focus of planned initiatives should not merely consider target countries; they should be developed by taking vulnerabilities of individuals. At this point, it is quite significant that UN member countries gathered in 2016 to develop a compact which would take refugee and migration questions together as well as to define the responsibilities in the international area. This start finalized with developing Global Migration Compact which contains 23 major goals. Sadly, the Compact deceived some countries’ enthusiasm to be part of it. Yet, we still believe that this initiative will give a new pulse in the field of mobility. Therefore we share the introduction part of this issue to the Global Migration Compact together with Refugee Compact. This analysis will examine Global Migration and Refugee compacts in the framework of conflict and crisis notions and in relation to globalisation. We undertake a critical point of view; therefore we consider expectations from the Compacts and their limits together. It is good to see that the Compacts are a reflection of international solidarity effort and it approaches a holistic understanding toward the mobility. However, we also believe that these Compacts require further developments in order to fully respond to the vulnerabilities and needs of people.


Sociologija ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 60 (1) ◽  
pp. 255-274
Author(s):  
Tanja Visic ◽  
Dunja Poleti-Cosic

Whilst often adopting a feminist perspective, the literature on gender and migration has often neglected to consider the production of knowledge from this point of view. It has left unarticulated the assumptions and concerns about gender and gender relations that underpin scientific knowledge claims about female migration. The aim of the paper is to problematize the dominant paradigms in contemporary studies and how these paradigms manifest the tension between knowledge produced in the core countries and those produced in the semiperiphery. In doing this, we offer a critical review of the broader field of feminist migration studies using the concept of ?gender knowledge? in order to identify some of the omissions and neglected topics in the field of migration studies - such as a de-emphasis on gender and sexuality, or on the intersectional interplay of gender with other dimensions of inequality, an over-focus on quantitative approaches, and a neglect to consider migrants? agency which comes as a result of unexamined methodological nationalism and methodological sexism. The paper shows the importance of the geographical, political, social and cultural contextualisation of the production of knowledge and the relevance of problematizing the connection between knowledge drawn from the semi-periphery and that drawn from the core. The paper does this through a discussion of particular cases of migration for domestic and care work and the development of gender-focussed approaches to migration studies in Serbia.


2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 164-174
Author(s):  
Sara Vannini ◽  
Ricardo Gomez ◽  
Megan Carney ◽  
Katharyne Mitchell

We reflect on the experience of a cross-disciplinary collaboration between scholars in the fields of geography, anthropology, communication, and information studies, and suggest paths for future research on sanctuary and migration studies that are based on interdisciplinary approaches. After situating sanctuary in a wider theoretical, historical, and global context, we discuss the origins and contemporary expressions of sanctuary both within and beyond faith-based organizations. We include the role of collective action, personal stories, and artistic expressions as part of the new sanctuary movement, as well as the social and political forms of outrage that lead to rekindling protest and protection of undocumented immigrants, refugees, and other minorities and vulnerable populations. We conclude with a discussion on the urgency for interdisciplinary explorations of these kinds of new, contemporary manifestations of sanctuary, and suggest paths for further research to deepen the academic dialogue on the topic.


Author(s):  
N.V. Belov ◽  
U.I. Papiashwili ◽  
B.E. Yudovich

It has been almost universally adopted that dissolution of solids proceeds with development of uniform, continuous frontiers of reaction.However this point of view is doubtful / 1 /. E.g. we have proved the active role of the block (grain) boundaries in the main phases of cement, these boundaries being the areas of hydrate phases' nucleation / 2 /. It has brought to the supposition that the dissolution frontier of cement particles in water is discrete. It seems also probable that the dissolution proceeds through the channels, which serve both for the liquid phase movement and for the drainage of the incongruant solution products. These channels can be appeared along the block boundaries.In order to demonsrate it, we have offered the method of phase-contrast impregnation of the hardened cement paste with the solution of methyl metacrylahe and benzoyl peroxide. The viscosity of this solution is equal to that of water.


2009 ◽  
pp. 4-27
Author(s):  
A. Cohen ◽  
G. Harcourt

The article written by the well-known theorists and historians of economic thought contains a detailed overview of the Cambridge capital controversy, which had raged from the mid-1950-s through the mid-1970-s. The authors track the origins of the controversy and cover arguments of both sides in chronological order. From their point of view, the discussion hasnt been resolved, and its main underlying aspects were ideological beliefs and fundamental methodological controversies on the nature of equilibrium and on the role of time in economic theory. The article is published with comments written by other leading theoreticians.


2019 ◽  
pp. 22-29
Author(s):  
Н. В. Фрадкіна

The purpose and tasks of the work are to analyze the contemporary Ukrainian mass culture in terms of its value and humanistic components, as well as the importance of cultural studies and Ukrainian studies in educational disciplines for the formation of a holistic worldview of modern youth.Analysis of research and publications. Scientists repeatedly turned to the problems of the role of spirituality in the formation of society and its culture. This problem is highlighted in the publications by O. Losev, V. Lytvyn, D. Likhachev, S. Avierintsev, M. Zakovych, I. Stepanenko and E. Kostyshyn.Experts see the main negative impact of mass culture on the quality approach, which determines mass culture through the market, because mass culture, from our point of view, is everything that is sold and used in mass demand.One of the most interesting studies on this issue was the work by the representatives of Frankfurt School M. Horkheimer and T. Adorno «Dialectics of Enlightenment» (1947), devoted to a detailed analysis of mass culture. Propaganda at all socio-cultural levels in the form is similar in both totalitarian and democratic countries. It is connected, according to the authors, with the direction of European enlightenment. The tendency to unify people is a manifestation of the influence of mass culture, from cinema to pop. Mass culture is a phenomenon whose existence is associated with commerce (accumulation in any form – this is the main feature of education), in general, the fact that it exists in this form is related to the direction of the history of civilization.Modern mass culture, with its externally attractive and easily assimilated ideas and symbols, appealing to the trends of modern fashion, becomes a standard of prestigious consumption, does not require intense reflection, allows you to relax, distract, not teach, but entertains, preaches hedonism as the main spiritual value. And as a consequence, there are socio-cultural risks: an active rejection of other people, which leads to the formation of indifference; cruelty as a character trait; increase of violent and mercenary crime; increase in the number of alcohol and drug addicts; anti-patriotism; indifference to the values of the family and as a result of social orphanhood and prostitution.Conclusions, perspectives of research. Thus, we can conclude that modern Ukrainian education is predominantly formed by the values of mass culture. Namely, according to the «Dialectic» by Horkheimer and Adorno, «semi-enlightenment becomes an objective spirit» of our modern society.It is concluded that only high-quality education can create the opposite of the onset of mass culture and the destruction of spirituality in our society. It is proved that only by realizing the importance of cultivating disciplines in the educational process and the spiritual upbringing of the nation, through educational reforms, humanitarian knowledge will gradually return to student audiences.Formation of youth occurs under the influence of social environment, culture, education and self-education. The optimal combination of these factors determines both the process of socialization itself and how successful it will be. In this context, one can see the leading role of education and upbringing. It turns out that the main task of modern education is to spread its influence on the development of spiritual culture of the individual, which eventually becomes a solid foundation for the formation of the individual. Such a subject requires both philosophical and humanitarian approaches in further integrated interdisciplinary research, since the availability of such research will provide the theoretical foundation for truly modern educational and personal development.


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