scholarly journals The Ability of the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score to Predict Mobility, Length of Stay and Mortality in Hospital, and Discharge Destination in Patients Admitted with a Hip Fracture

2020 ◽  
Vol 107 (4) ◽  
pp. 319-326 ◽  
Author(s):  
Radcliffe Lisk ◽  
Keefai Yeong ◽  
David Fluck ◽  
Christopher H. Fry ◽  
Thang S. Han

Abstract The Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) has been developed for predicting 30-day and 1-year mortality after hip fracture. We hypothesise that NHFS may also predict other adverse events. Data from 666 patients (190 men, 476 women), aged 60.2–103.4 years, admitted with a hip fracture to a single centre from 1/10/2015 and 7/12/2017 were analysed. The ability of NHFS to predict mobility within 1 day after surgery, length of stay (LOS) find mortality, and discharge destination was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curves and two-graph plots. The area under the curve (95% confidence interval [CI]) for predicting mortality was 67.4% (58.4–76.4%), prolonged LOS was 59.0% (54.0–64.0%), discharge to residential/nursing care was 62.3% (54.0–71.5%), and any two of failure to mobilise, prolonged LOS or discharge to residential/nursing care was 64.8% (59.0–70.6%). NHFS thresholds at 4 and 7 corresponding to the lower and upper limits of intermediate range where sensitivity and specificity equal 90% were identified for mortality and prolonged LOS, and 4 and 6 for discharge to residential/nursing care, which were used to create three risk categories. Compared with the low risk group (NHFS = 0–4), the high risk group (NHFS = 7–10 or 6–10) had increased risk of in-patient mortality: rates = 2.0% versus 7.1%, OR (95% CI) = 3.8 (1.5–9.9), failure to mobilise within 1 day of surgery: rates = 18.9% versus 28.3%, OR = 1.7 (1.0–2.8), prolonged LOS (> 17 days): rates = 20.3% versus 33.9%, OR = 2.2 (1.3–3.3), discharge to residential/nursing care: rates = 4.5% vs 12.3%, OR = 3.0 (1.4–6.4), and any two of failure to mobilise, prolonged LOS or discharge to residential/nursing care: rates = 10.5% versus 28.6%, 3.4 (95% CI 1.9–6.0), and stayed 4.1 days (1.5–6.7 days) longer in hospital. High NHFS associates with increased risk of mortality, prolonged LOS and discharge to residential/nursing care, lending further support for its use to identify adverse events.

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (15) ◽  
pp. 3241
Author(s):  
Shih-Hao Chen ◽  
Ya-Yun Cheng ◽  
Chih-Hao Lin

Background: Patients undergoing hemodialysis are prone to cardiac arrests. Methods: This study aimed to develop a risk score to predict in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) in emergency department (ED) patients undergoing emergency hemodialysis. Patients were included if they received urgent hemodialysis within 24 h after ED arrival. The primary outcome was IHCA within three days. Predictors included three domains: comorbidity, triage information (vital signs), and initial biochemical results. The final model was generated from data collected between 2015 and 2018 and validated using data from 2019. Results: A total of 257 patients, including 52 with IHCA, were analyzed. Statistical analysis selected significant variables with higher sensitivity cutoff, and scores were assigned based on relative beta coefficient ratio: K > 5.5 mmol/L (score 1), pH < 7.35 (score 1), oxygen saturation < 85% (score 1), and mean arterial pressure < 80 mmHg (score 2). The final scoring system had an area under the curve of 0.78 (p < 0.001) in the primary group and 0.75 (p = 0.023) in the validation group. The high-risk group (defined as sum scores ≥ 3) had an IHCA risk of 47.2% and 41.7%, while the low-risk group (sum scores < 3) had 18.3% and 7%, in the primary and validation databases, respectively. Conclusions: This predictive score model for IHCA in emergent hemodialysis patients could help healthcare providers to take necessary precautions and allocate resources.


Cancers ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 1631
Author(s):  
Anna Astarita ◽  
Giulia Mingrone ◽  
Lorenzo Airale ◽  
Fabrizio Vallelonga ◽  
Michele Covella ◽  
...  

Cardiovascular adverse events (CVAEs) are linked to Carfilzomib (CFZ) therapy in multiple myeloma (MM); however, no validated protocols on cardiovascular risk assessment are available. In this prospective study, the effectiveness of the European Myeloma Network protocol (EMN) in cardiovascular risk assessment was investigated, identifying major predictors of CVAEs. From January 2015 to March 2020, 116 MM patients who had indication for CFZ therapy underwent a baseline evaluation (including blood pressure measurements, echocardiography and arterial stiffness estimation) and were prospectively followed. The median age was 64.53 ± 8.42 years old, 56% male. Five baseline independent predictors of CVAEs were identified: office systolic blood pressure, 24-h blood pressure variability, left ventricular hypertrophy, pulse wave velocity value and global longitudinal strain. The resulting ‘CVAEs risk score’ distinguished a low- and a high-risk group, obtaining a negative predicting value for the high-risk group of 90%. 52 patients (44.9%) experienced one or more CVAEs: 17 (14.7%) had major and 45 (38.7%) had hypertension-related events. In conclusion, CVAEs are frequent and a specific management protocol is crucial. The EMN protocol and the risk score proved to be useful to estimate the baseline risk for CVAEs during CFZ therapy, allowing the identification of higher-risk patients.


2013 ◽  
Vol 95 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
EJC Dawe ◽  
E Lindisfarne ◽  
T Singh ◽  
I McFadyen ◽  
P Stott

Introduction The Sernbo score uses four factors (age, social situation, mobility and mental state) to divide patients into a high-risk and a low-risk group. This study sought to assess the use of the Sernbo score in predicting mortality after an intracapsular hip fracture. Methods A total of 259 patients with displaced intracapsular hip fractures were included in the study. Data from prospectively generated databases provided 22 descriptive variables for each patient. These included operative management, blood tests and co-mobidities. Multivariate analysis was used to identify significant predictors of mortality. Results The mean patient age was 85 years and the mean follow-up duration was 1.5 years. The one-year survival rate was 92% (±0.03) in the low-risk group and 65% (±0.046) in the high-risk group. Four variables predicted mortality: Sernbo score >15 (p=0.0023), blood creatinine (p=0.0026), ASA (American Society of Anaesthesiologists) grade >3 (p=0.0038) and non-operative treatment (p=0.0377). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed the Sernbo score as the only predictor of 30-day mortality (area under curve 0.71 [0.65–0.76]). The score had a sensitivity of 92% and a specificity of 51% for prediction of death at 30 days. Conclusions The Sernbo score identifies patients at high risk of death in the 30 days following injury. This very simple score could be used to direct extra early multidisciplinary input to high-risk patients on admission with an intracapsular hip fracture.


2007 ◽  
Vol 38 (8) ◽  
pp. 1203-1210 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Suvisaari ◽  
L. Häkkinen ◽  
J. Haukka ◽  
J. Lönnqvist

BackgroundPrevious studies suggest that offspring of mothers with psychotic disorders have an almost two-fold higher mortality risk from birth until early adulthood. We investigated predictors of mortality from late adolescence until middle age in offspring of mothers with psychotic disorders.MethodThe Helsinki High-Risk Study follows up offspring (n=337) of women treated for schizophrenia spectrum disorders in mental hospitals in Helsinki before 1975. Factors related to mortality up to 2005 among offspring of these mothers was investigated with a survival model. Hazard rate ratios (HRR) were calculated using sex, diagnosis of psychotic disorder, childhood socio-economic status, maternal diagnosis, and maternal suicide attempts and aggressive symptoms as explanatory variables. The effect of family was investigated by including a frailty term in the model. We also compared mortality between the high-risk group and the Finnish general population.ResultsWithin the high-risk group, females had lower all-cause mortality (HRR 0.43, p=0.05) and mortality from unnatural causes (HRR 0.24, p=0.03) than males. Having themselves been diagnosed with a psychotic disorder was associated with higher mortality from unnatural causes (HRR 4.76, p=0.01), while maternal suicide attempts were associated with higher suicide mortality (HRR 8.64, p=0.03). Mortality in the high-risk group was over two-fold higher (HRR 2.44, p<0.0001) than in the general population, and remained significantly higher when high-risk offspring who later developed psychotic disorders were excluded from the study sample (HRR 2.30, p<0.0001).ConclusionsOffspring of mothers with psychotic disorder are at increased risk of several adverse outcomes, including premature death.


2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunhua Bei ◽  
Shun Liu ◽  
Xiangyuan Yu ◽  
Moqin Qiu ◽  
Bo Tang ◽  
...  

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in microRNA may affect its expression and regulation of target genes, which may consequently alter individual susceptibility to cancer. In this study we aimed to investigate associations betweenmiR-122polymorphisms and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in a southern Chinese population. Three selected SNPs inmiR-122(rs9966765, rs1135519, and rs17669) were genotyped in 1050 HCC patients and 1079 cancer-free controls using Sequenom MassARRAY platform and the associations of the three SNPs and HCC risk were evaluated. We found that individuals with the rs1135519 CC genotypes had a significant increased risk of HCC than those with TT genotypes (adjusted OR=2.71, 95% CI=1.15-6.36, andP=0.022), while the rs9966765 CC genotypes showed a borderline significant association with increased risk of HCC when compared with the GG genotypes (adjusted OR=2.38, 95% CI=0.99-5.75, andP=0.052). There was also a significant increased risk of HCC when combining risk genotypes of these loci, i.e., rs1135519 CC and rs9966765 CC. Compared with the low-risk group (0 risk genotype), the high risk group (1-2 risk genotypes) had significantly increased risk of HCC (OR=1.61, 95% CI=1.05-2.44, andP=0.028). Further genotype-expression analysis revealed that cases carrying the CC genotype of rs1135519 had lower levels ofmiR-122expression than those with the TT genotype. Our results suggest that SNP of rs1135519 modulatesmiR-122expression and contributes to the genetic susceptibility of HCC, either independently or together with rs9966765 inmiR-122.Further well-designed studies with lager sample sizes are needed to confirm our findings.


TH Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 04 (01) ◽  
pp. e59-e65 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex C. Spyropoulos ◽  
Concetta Lipardi ◽  
Jianfeng Xu ◽  
Colleen Peluso ◽  
Theodore E. Spiro ◽  
...  

AbstractAn individualized approach to identify acutely ill medical patients at increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) and a low risk of bleeding to optimize the benefit and risk of extended thromboprophylaxis (ET) is needed. The International Medical Prevention Registry on Venous Thromboembolism (IMPROVE) VTE risk score has undergone extensive external validation in medically ill patients for in-hospital use and a modified model was used in the MARINER trial of ET also incorporating an elevated D-dimer. The MAGELLAN study demonstrated efficacy with rivaroxaban but had excess bleeding. This retrospective analysis investigated whether the modified IMPROVE VTE model with an elevated D-dimer could identify a high VTE risk subgroup of patients for ET from a subpopulation of the MAGELLAN study, which was previously identified as having a lower risk of bleeding. We incorporated the modified IMPROVE VTE score using a cutoff score of 4 or more or 2 and 3 with an elevated D-dimer (>2 times the upper limit of normal) to the MAGELLAN subpopulation. In total, 56% of the patients met the high-risk criteria. In the placebo group, the total VTE event rate at Day 35 was 7.94% in the high-risk group and 2.83% for patients in the lower-risk group. A reduction in VTE was observed with rivaroxaban in the high-risk group (relative risk [RR]: 0.68, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.51–0.91, p = 0.008) and in the lower-risk group (RR: 0.69, 95% CI: 0.40 -1.20, p = 0.187). The modified IMPROVE VTE score with an elevated D-dimer identified a nearly threefold higher VTE risk subpopulation of patients where a significant benefit exists for ET using rivaroxaban.


Blood ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 108 (11) ◽  
pp. 715-715
Author(s):  
Rupert M. Bauersachs ◽  
Joachim Dudenhausen ◽  
Andree Faridi ◽  
Thorsten Fischer ◽  
Samson Fung ◽  
...  

Abstract Women with a history of VTE, thrombophilia or both are at increased risk for VTE during pregnancy, but the optimal management strategy, and the need for thromboprophylaxis is not well defined in clinical guidelines because of limited trial data. The EThIG (Efficacy of Thromboprophylaxis as an Intervention during Gravidity) is a multicenter trial that prospectively enrolled 810 pregnant women at risk of VTE. Women were assigned to one of 3 management strategies: Low risk group I (including women with prior secondary VTE, or asymptomatic thrombophilia) with “watchful waiting” management, and dalteparin prophylaxis postpartum (50–100 IU/kg), or earlier if additional risk factors occurred; high risk group II (e.g. idiopathic VTE or symptomatic thrombophilia) receiving 50–100 IU/kg dalteparin; and very high-risk group III (e.g. acute VTE, prior long-term OAC, symptomatic AT-deficiency or antiphospholipid syndrome), receiving 100–200 IU/kg dalteparin. Primary efficacy outcome measure was symptomatic VTE, main safety outcome measures were haemorrhages, osteoporosis, thromboctopenia and pregnancy outcome. Results (mean ± SD / 95% CI): 810 women (age 30.8±5.4 years, weight 73.6±16.1kg) were enrolled, 28 % in group I, 58 % in II and 14% in III, including 66 women with acute VTE. 60.1% had prior VTE, 75.4% had thrombophilia (42.1 % FV-Leiden, 2.1 % homozygous, 9.5 % FII G20210A, 4.1% PC-, 1 % AT-deficiency; 17.4 % APS). 35.8 % had previous miscarriage, still birth or physical malformation. Comorbid conditions included lupus erythematosus, liver transplantation, ventricular septum defect, paraplegia, hepatitis C, nephrotic syndrome, asthma, chronic haemolytic anaemia, thalassaemia, osteoporosis and thrombocytopaenia. Median treatment initiation was at 17.0 weeks, at 24.0 weeks in group I, 14.5 weeks in group II and 16.0 weeks for group III. Mean daily dose was 66.2 ± 22.5 IU per kg (group I), 76.8 ± 24.1 IU per kg (group II) and 120.0 ± 49.1 IU per kg (group III). Objectively confirmed, symptomatic VTE occurred in 5 of 810 women (0.6%;0.2–1.5%). The rate of serious bleeding was 3.0% (1.9–4.4%), 0.9% (0.3–1.8%) occurred in the antepartum period, 2.1% (1.3–3.4%) peri-partum;1.1% (0.5–2.2%) was possibly heparin-related. There was no evidence of heparin-induced thrombocytopenia, and one case of osteoporosis (fracture of the saccygous bone during delivery). There were 94.4% successful pregnancies, 40 foetuses (4.9%; 3.6–6.7%) were lost due to miscarriage, 7 due to elective termination. Risk-stratified heparin prophylaxis was associated with a low incidence of symptomatic venous thromboembolism and few clinically important adverse events. Antepartum heparin prophylaxis is warranted in pregnant women with prior idiopathic thrombosis or symptomatic thrombophilia.


2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 394-394
Author(s):  
Lavanniya Kumar Palani Velu ◽  
Vishnuvardhan Chandrabalan ◽  
Ross Carter ◽  
Colin McKay ◽  
Donald McMillan ◽  
...  

394 Background: Pancreas-specific complications (PSC), comprising postoperative pancreatic fistula, post-pancreatectomy haemorrhage, and intra-abdominal collections, are drivers of morbidity following pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). Intra-operatively derived pancreatic gland texture is a major determinant of postoperative PSC. We have previously demonstrated that a postoperative day 0 (PoD0) serum amylase ≥ 130 IU/L is an objective surrogate of pancreatic texture, and is associated with PSC. We sought to refine the PSC risk prediction model by including serial measurements of serum C-reactive protein (CRP). Methods: 230 consecutive patients undergoing PD between 2008 and 2014 were included in the study. Routine serum investigations, including amylase and CRP were performed from the pre-operative day. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to identify a threshold value of serum CRP associated with clinically significant PSC. Results: 95 (41.3%) patients experienced a clinically significant PSC. ROC analysis identified post-operative day 2 (PoD2) serum CRP of 180 mg/L as the optimal threshold (P=0.005) associated with clinically significant PSC, a prolonged stay in critical care (P =0.032), and a relaparotomy (P = 0.045). Patients with a PoD0 serum amylase ≥ 130 IU/L who then developed a PoD2 serum CRP ≥ 180 mg/L had a higher incidence of postoperative complications. Patients were categorised into high, intermediate and low risk groups based on PoD0 serum amylase and PoD2 serum CRP. Patients in the high risk group (PoD0 serum amylase ≥ 130 IU/L and PoD2 serum CRP ≥ 180 mg/l) had significantly higher incidence of PSC, a return to theatre, prolonged lengths stay (all P≤ 0.05) and a four-fold increase in perioperative mortality compared patients in the intermediate and low risk groups (7 deaths in the high risk group versus 2 and nil in the intermediate and low risk groups respectively). Conclusions: A high risk profile, defined as PoD0 serum amylase ≥ 130 IU/L and PoD2 serum CRP ≥ 180 mg/l, should raise the clinician’s awareness of the increased risk of clinically significant PSC and a complicated postoperative course following pancreaticoduodenectomy.


2009 ◽  
Vol 27 (34) ◽  
pp. 5772-5780 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bonnie E. Gould Rothberg ◽  
Aaron J. Berger ◽  
Annette M. Molinaro ◽  
Antonio Subtil ◽  
Michael O. Krauthammer ◽  
...  

PurposeAs a result of the questionable risk-to-benefit ratio of adjuvant therapies, stage II melanoma is currently managed by observation because available clinicopathologic parameters cannot identify the 20% to 60% of such patients likely to develop metastatic disease. Here, we propose a multimarker molecular prognostic assay that can help triage patients at increased risk of recurrence.MethodsProtein expression for 38 candidates relevant to melanoma oncogenesis was evaluated using the automated quantitative analysis (AQUA) method for immunofluorescence-based immunohistochemistry in formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded specimens from a cohort of 192 primary melanomas collected during 1959 to 1994. The prognostic assay was built using a genetic algorithm and validated on an independent cohort of 246 serial primary melanomas collected from 1997 to 2004.ResultsMultiple iterations of the genetic algorithm yielded a consistent five-marker solution. A favorable prognosis was predicted by ATF2 ln(non-nuclear/nuclear AQUA score ratio) of more than –0.052, p21WAF1nuclear compartment AQUA score of more than 12.98, p16INK4Aln(non-nuclear/nuclear AQUA score ratio) of ≤ −0.083, β-catenin total AQUA score of more than 38.68, and fibronectin total AQUA score of ≤ 57.93. Primary tumors that met at least four of these five conditions were considered a low-risk group, and those that met three or fewer conditions formed a high-risk group (log-rank P < .0001). Multivariable proportional hazards analysis adjusting for clinicopathologic parameters shows that the high-risk group has significantly reduced survival on both the discovery (hazard ratio = 2.84; 95% CI, 1.46 to 5.49; P = .002) and validation (hazard ratio = 2.72; 95% CI, 1.12 to 6.58; P = .027) cohorts.ConclusionThis multimarker prognostic assay, an independent determinant of melanoma survival, might be beneficial in improving the selection of stage II patients for adjuvant therapy.


2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 87-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lillian Sarah Coventry ◽  
Austin Nguyen ◽  
Amalia Karahalios ◽  
Sasha Roshan-Zamir ◽  
Phong Tran

Introduction: Orthogeriatric care models have been introduced within many health-care facilities to improve outcomes for hip fracture patients. This study aims to evaluate differences in care between 3 models, an orthopedic model, a geriatric model, and a comanaged model. Materials and Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted for hip fracture patients treated at Western Health between November 2012 and March 2014. All patients aged 65 years or older were included in the analysis. Results: There were 183 patients in the orthopedic model, 137 in the geriatric model, and 126 in the comanaged model. Demographics and clinical characteristics were similar across the 3 models. Length of stay, mortality, and discharge destination were also consistent across the 3 groups. However, groups involving geriatricians were more likely to receive preoperative medical assessments, have greater recognition of postoperative medical problems, and have implementation of long-term osteoporosis management. Conclusion: The involvement of geriatricians in perioperative care models resulted in more comprehensive medical care without impacting length of stay, mortality, or discharge destination.


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