scholarly journals Landscape-Scale Forest Reorganization Following Insect Invasion and Harvest Under Future Climate Change Scenarios

Ecosystems ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stacey K. Olson ◽  
Erica A. H. Smithwick ◽  
Melissa S. Lucash ◽  
Robert M. Scheller ◽  
Robert E. Nicholas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Disturbance ◽  
Emerald Ash Borer ◽  
Agrilus Planipennis ◽  
Forest Composition ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Species Dominance

AbstractEmerald ash borer (EAB; Agrilus planipennis Farimaire) has been found in 35 US states and five Canadian provinces. This invasive beetle is causing widespread mortality to ash trees (Fraxinus spp.), which are an important timber product and ornamental tree, as well as a cultural resource for some Tribes. The damage will likely continue despite efforts to impede its spread. Further, widespread and rapid ash mortality as a result of EAB is expected to alter forest composition and structure, especially when coupled with the regional effects of climate change in post-ash forests. Thus, we forecasted the long-term effects of EAB-induced ash mortality and preemptive ash harvest (a forest management mitigation strategy) on forested land across a 2-million-hectare region in northern Wisconsin. We used a spatially explicit and spatially interactive forest simulation model, LANDIS-II, to estimate future species dominance and biodiversity assuming continued widespread ash mortality. We ran forest disturbance and succession simulations under historic climate conditions and three downscaled CMIP5 climate change projections representing the upper bound of expected changes in precipitation and temperature. Our results suggest that although ash loss from EAB or harvest resulted in altered biodiversity patterns in some stands, climate change will be the major driver of changes in biodiversity by the end of century, causing increases in the dominance of southern species and homogenization of species composition across the landscape.

Amazon forest responses to drought: scaling from individuals to ecosystems.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott R. Saleska ◽  
Natalia Restrepo-Coupe ◽  
Fernanda V. Barros ◽  
Paulo R. L. Bittencourt ◽  
Neill Prohaska ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Ecosystem Respiration ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Forest Composition ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Amazon Forest ◽  
Ecosystem Responses ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Dry Seasons

<p>Scaling from individuals or species to ecosystems is a fundamental challenge of modern ecology and understanding tropical forest response to drought is a key challenge of predicting responses to global climate change.  We here synthesize our developing understanding of these twin challenges by examining individual and ecosystem responses to the 2015 El Niño drought at two sites in the central Amazon of Brazil, near Manaus and Santarem, which span a precipitation gradient from moderate (Manaus) to long (Santarem) dry seasons.  We will focus on how ecosystem water and carbon cycling, measured by eddy flux towers, emerges from individual trait-based responses, including photosynthetic responses of individual leaves, and water cycle responses in terms of stomatal conductance and hydraulic xylem embolism resistance.  We found the Santarem forest (with long dry seasons) responded strongly to drought: sensible heat values significantly increased and evapotranspiration decreased.  Consistent with this, we also observed reductions in photosynthetic activity and ecosystem respiration, showing levels of stress not seen in the nearly two decades since measurements started at this site.  Forests at the Manaus site showed significant, however, less consistent reductions in water and carbon exchange and a more pronounced water deficit.  We report an apparent community level forest composition selecting for assemblies of traits and taxa manifest of higher drought tolerance at Santarem, compared to the Manaus forest (short dry seasons) and other forest sites across Amazonia.  These results suggest that we may be able to use community trait compositions (as selected by past climate conditions) and environmental threshold values (e.g. cumulative rainfall, atmospheric moisture and radiation) as to help forecast ecosystem responses to future climate change.</p>

scholarly journals Predicting the Potential Global Geographical Distribution of Two Icerya Species under Climate Change

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 684
Author(s):  
Yang Liu ◽  
Juan Shi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South America ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Scientific Management ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Invasive Pests ◽  
Suitable Habitats

Climate change is predicted to alter the geographic distribution of a wide variety of taxa, including insects. Icerya aegyptiaca (Douglas) and I. purchasi Maskell are two polyphagous and invasive pests in the genus Icerya Signoret (Hemiptera: Monophlebidae) and cause serious damage to many landscape and economic trees. However, the global habitats suitable for these two Icerya species are unclear. The purpose of this study is to determine the potentially suitable habitats of these two species, then to provide scientific management strategies. Using MaxEnt software, the potential risk maps of I. aegyptiaca and I. purchasi were created based on their occurrence data under different climatic conditions and topology factors. The results suggested that under current climate conditions, the potentially habitable area of I. aegyptiaca would be much larger than the current distribution and there would be small changes for I. purchasi. In the future climate change scenarios, the suitable habitats of these two insect species will display an increasing trend. Africa, South America and Asia would be more suitable for I. aegyptiaca. South America, Asia and Europe would be more suitable for I. purchasi. Moreover, most of the highly habitat suitability areas of I. aegyptiaca will become concentrated in Southern Asia. The results also suggested that “min temperature of coldest month” was the most important environmental factor affecting the prediction models of these two insects. This research provides a theoretical reference framework for developing policies to manage and control these two invasive pests of the genus Icerya.

scholarly journals Evaluating Nature-Based Solution for Flood Reduction in Spercheios River Basin under Current and Future Climate Conditions

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 3885
Author(s):  
Christos Spyrou ◽  
Michael Loupis ◽  
Νikos Charizopoulos ◽  
Ilektra Apostolidou ◽  
Angeliki Mentzafou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Maximum Velocity ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
The Impact

Nature-based solutions (NBS) are being deployed around the world in order to address hydrometeorological hazards, including flooding, droughts, landslides and many others. The term refers to techniques inspired, supported and copied from nature, avoiding large constructions and other harmful interventions. In this work the development and evaluation of an NBS applied to the Spercheios river basin in Central Greece is presented. The river is susceptible to heavy rainfall and bank overflow, therefore the intervention selected is a natural water retention measure that aims to moderate the impact of flooding and drought in the area. After the deployment of the NBS, we examine the benefits under current and future climate conditions, using various climate change scenarios. Even though the NBS deployed is small compared to the rest of the river, its presence leads to a decrease in the maximum depth of flooding, maximum velocity and smaller flooded areas. Regarding the subsurface/groundwater storage under current and future climate change and weather conditions, the NBS construction seems to favor long-term groundwater recharge.

scholarly journals PREDICTION OF CHANGES IN VEGETATION DISTRIBUTION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS USING MODIS DATASET

2016 ◽  
Vol XLI-B8 ◽  
pp. 883-887
Author(s):  
Hidetake Hirayama ◽  
Mizuki Tomita ◽  
Keitarou Hara
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Remote Sensing Data ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Slope Aspect ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Vegetation Distribution ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Distribution Maps ◽  
Sensing Data

The distribution of vegetation is expected to change under the influence of climate change. This study utilizes vegetation maps derived from Terra/MODIS data to generate a model of current climate conditions suitable to beech-dominated deciduous forests, which are the typical vegetation of Japan’s cool temperate zone. This model will then be coordinated with future climate change scenarios to predict the future distribution of beech forests. The model was developed by using the presence or absence of beech forest as the dependent variable. Four climatic variables; mean minimum daily temperature of the coldest month (TMC)，warmth index (WI)， winter precipitation (PRW) and summer precipitation (PRS): and five geophysical variables; topography (TOPO), surface geology (GEOL), soil (SOIL), slope aspect (ASP), and inclination (INCL); were adopted as independent variables. Previous vegetation distribution studies used point data derived from field surveys. The remote sensing data utilized in this study, however, should permit collecting of greater amounts of data, and also frequent updating of data and distribution maps. These results will hopefully show that use of remote sensing data can provide new insights into our understanding of how vegetation distribution will be influenced by climate change.

scholarly journals PREDICTION OF CHANGES IN VEGETATION DISTRIBUTION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS USING MODIS DATASET

2016 ◽  
Vol XLI-B8 ◽  
pp. 883-887
Author(s):  
Hidetake Hirayama ◽  
Mizuki Tomita ◽  
Keitarou Hara
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Remote Sensing Data ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Slope Aspect ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Vegetation Distribution ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Distribution Maps ◽  
Sensing Data

The distribution of vegetation is expected to change under the influence of climate change. This study utilizes vegetation maps derived from Terra/MODIS data to generate a model of current climate conditions suitable to beech-dominated deciduous forests, which are the typical vegetation of Japan’s cool temperate zone. This model will then be coordinated with future climate change scenarios to predict the future distribution of beech forests. The model was developed by using the presence or absence of beech forest as the dependent variable. Four climatic variables; mean minimum daily temperature of the coldest month (TMC)，warmth index (WI)， winter precipitation (PRW) and summer precipitation (PRS): and five geophysical variables; topography (TOPO), surface geology (GEOL), soil (SOIL), slope aspect (ASP), and inclination (INCL); were adopted as independent variables. Previous vegetation distribution studies used point data derived from field surveys. The remote sensing data utilized in this study, however, should permit collecting of greater amounts of data, and also frequent updating of data and distribution maps. These results will hopefully show that use of remote sensing data can provide new insights into our understanding of how vegetation distribution will be influenced by climate change.

scholarly journals Host Overwintering Phenology and Climate Change Influence the Establishment of Tetrastichus planipennisi Yang (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae), a Larval Parasitoid Introduced for Biocontrol of the Emerald Ash Borer

2020 ◽  
Vol 113 (6) ◽  
pp. 2641-2649
Author(s):  
Juli R Gould ◽  
Melissa L Warden ◽  
Benjamin H Slager ◽  
Theresa C Murphy
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Biological Control ◽  
Emerald Ash Borer ◽  
Control Program ◽  
The United States ◽  
Agrilus Planipennis ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ongoing Research ◽  
Tetrastichus Planipennisi

Abstract Emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), is one of the most serious forest pests in the United States. Ongoing research indicates that establishment of larval parasitoids depends upon the season-long availability of host stages susceptible to parasitism. We monitored emerald ash borer overwintering stages at 90 sites across 22 states to: 1) produce a model of the percentage of emerald ash borer overwintering as non-J larvae; 2) link that model to establishment of Tetrastichus planipennisi; and 3) explore changes to our model under climate change scenarios. Accumulated growing degree days (GDD) is an important predictor of the proportion of emerald ash borer overwintering as non-J larvae (1–4 instar larvae under the bark; available to parasitoids emerging in spring) versus J-larvae (fourth-instar larvae in pupal chambers in the outer wood; unavailable to parasitoids). From north to south, the availability of non-J emerald ash borer larvae in the spring decreases as accumulated GDD increases. In areas where the model predicted >46–75%, >30–46%, >13–30%, or ≤13% of emerald ash borer overwintering as non-J larvae, the probability of establishment of T. planipennisi was 92%, 67%, 57%, and 21%, respectively. We determined that 13% of emerald ash borer overwintering as non-J larvae was the lowest threshold for expected T. planipennisi establishment. Additional modeling predicts that under climate change, establishment of T. planipennisi will be most affected in the Central United States, with areas that are currently suitable becoming unsuitable. Our results provide a useful tool for the emerald ash borer biological control program on how to economically and successfully deploy emerald ash borer biological control agents.

scholarly journals Mapping current and potential future distributions of the oak tree (Quercus aegilops) in the Kurdistan Region, Iraq

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nabaz R. Khwarahm
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
Oak Tree

Abstract Background The oak tree (Quercus aegilops) comprises ~ 70% of the oak forests in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). Besides its ecological importance as the residence for various endemic and migratory species, Q. aegilops forest also has socio-economic values—for example, as fodder for livestock, building material, medicine, charcoal, and firewood. In the KRI, Q. aegilops has been degrading due to anthropogenic threats (e.g., shifting cultivation, land use/land cover changes, civil war, and inadequate forest management policy) and these threats could increase as climate changes. In the KRI and Iraq as a whole, information on current and potential future geographical distributions of Q. aegilops is minimal or not existent. The objectives of this study were to (i) predict the current and future habitat suitability distributions of the species in relation to environmental variables and future climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070); and (ii) determine the most important environmental variables controlling the distribution of the species in the KRI. The objectives were achieved by using the MaxEnt (maximum entropy) algorithm, available records of Q. aegilops, and environmental variables. Results The model demonstrated that, under the RCP2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070 climate change scenarios, the distribution ranges of Q. aegilops would be reduced by 3.6% (1849.7 km2) and 3.16% (1627.1 km2), respectively. By contrast, the species ranges would expand by 1.5% (777.0 km2) and 1.7% (848.0 km2), respectively. The distribution of the species was mainly controlled by annual precipitation. Under future climate change scenarios, the centroid of the distribution would shift toward higher altitudes. Conclusions The results suggest (i) a significant suitable habitat range of the species will be lost in the KRI due to climate change by 2070 and (ii) the preference of the species for cooler areas (high altitude) with high annual precipitation. Conservation actions should focus on the mountainous areas (e.g., by establishment of national parks and protected areas) of the KRI as climate changes. These findings provide useful benchmarking guidance for the future investigation of the ecology of the oak forest, and the categorical current and potential habitat suitability maps can effectively be used to improve biodiversity conservation plans and management actions in the KRI and Iraq as a whole.

scholarly journals Water Temperature and Hydrological Modelling in the Context of Environmental Flows and Future Climate Change: Case Study of the Wilmot River (Canada)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 2101
Author(s):  
Christian Charron ◽  
André St-Hilaire ◽  
Taha B.M.J. Ouarda ◽  
Michael R. van den Heuvel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Temperature ◽  
Environmental Flows ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Water Abstraction ◽  
Surface Water Flow ◽  
Modelling Studies ◽  
Rcp 8.5

Simulation of surface water flow and temperature under a non-stationary, anthropogenically impacted climate is critical for water resource decision makers, especially in the context of environmental flow determination. Two climate change scenarios were employed to predict streamflow and temperature: RCP 8.5, the most pessimistic with regards to climate change, and RCP 4.5, a more optimistic scenario where greenhouse gas emissions peak in 2040. Two periods, 2018–2050 and 2051–2100, were also evaluated. In Canada, a number of modelling studies have shown that many regions will likely be faced with higher winter flow and lower summer flows. The CEQUEAU hydrological and water temperature model was calibrated and validated for the Wilmot River, Canada, using historic data for flow and temperature. Total annual precipitation in the region was found to remain stable under RCP 4.5 and increase over time under RCP 8.5. Median stream flow was expected to increase over present levels in the low flow months of August and September. However, increased climate variability led to higher numbers of periodic extreme low flow events and little change to the frequency of extreme high flow events. The effective increase in water temperature was four-fold greater in winter with an approximate mean difference of 4 °C, while the change was only 1 °C in summer. Overall implications for native coldwater fishes and water abstraction are not severe, except for the potential for more variability, and hence periodic extreme low flow/high temperature events.

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