scholarly journals Identifying decision-relevant uncertainties for dynamic adaptive forest management under climate change

2020 ◽  
Vol 163 (2) ◽  
pp. 891-911
Author(s):  
Naomi Radke ◽  
Klaus Keller ◽  
Rasoul Yousefpour ◽  
Marc Hanewinkel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Volume Growth ◽  
European Beech ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
West Germany ◽  
Forest Growth Model ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Planning Cycle

AbstractThe decision on how to manage a forest under climate change is subject to deep and dynamic uncertainties. The classic approach to analyze this decision adopts a predefined strategy, tests its robustness to uncertainties, but neglects their dynamic nature (i.e., that decision-makers can learn and adjust the strategy). Accounting for learning through dynamic adaptive strategies (DAS) can drastically improve expected performance and robustness to deep uncertainties. The benefits of considering DAS hinge on identifying critical uncertainties and translating them to detectable signposts to signal when to change course. This study advances the DAS approach to forest management as a novel application domain by showcasing methods to identify potential signposts for adaptation on a case study of a classic European beech management strategy in South-West Germany. We analyze the strategy’s robustness to uncertainties about model forcings and parameters. We then identify uncertainties that critically impact its economic and ecological performance by confronting a forest growth model with a large sample of time-varying scenarios. The case study results illustrate the potential of designing DAS for forest management and provide insights on key uncertainties and potential signposts. Specifically, economic uncertainties are the main driver of the strategy’s robustness and impact the strategy’s performance more critically than climate uncertainty. Besides economic metrics, the forest stand’s past volume growth is a promising signpost metric. It mirrors the effect of both climatic and model parameter uncertainty. The regular forest inventory and planning cycle provides an ideal basis for adapting a strategy in response to these signposts.

scholarly journals Disentangling the Legacies of Climate and Management on Tree Growth

Ecosystems ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Marqués ◽  
Drew M. P. Peltier ◽  
J. Julio Camarero ◽  
Miguel A. Zavala ◽  
Jaime Madrigal-González ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Tree Growth ◽  
European Beech ◽  
Ring Formation ◽  
Silver Fir ◽  
Past Climate ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Ecological Memory ◽  
Historical Forest

AbstractLegacies of past climate conditions and historical management govern forest productivity and tree growth. Understanding how these processes interact and the timescales over which they influence tree growth is critical to assess forest vulnerability to climate change. Yet, few studies address this issue, likely because integrated long-term records of both growth and forest management are uncommon. We applied the stochastic antecedent modelling (SAM) framework to annual tree-ring widths from mixed forests to recover the ecological memory of tree growth. We quantified the effects of antecedent temperature and precipitation up to 4 years preceding the year of ring formation and integrated management effects with records of harvesting intensity from historical forest management archives. The SAM approach uncovered important time periods most influential to growth, typically the warmer and drier months or seasons, but variation among species and sites emerged. Silver fir responded primarily to past climate conditions (25–50 months prior to the year of ring formation), while European beech and Scots pine responded mostly to climate conditions during the year of ring formation and the previous year, although these responses varied among sites. Past management and climate interacted in such a way that harvesting promoted growth in young silver fir under wet and warm conditions and in old European beech under drier and cooler conditions. Our study shows that the ecological memory associated with climate legacies and historical forest management is species-specific and context-dependent, suggesting that both aspects are needed to properly evaluate forest functioning under climate change.

scholarly journals Water and forests in the Mediterranean hot climate zone: a review based on a hydraulic interpretation of tree functioning

2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. eR02 ◽  
Author(s):  
Teresa Soares David ◽  
Clara Assunção Pinto ◽  
Nadezhda Nadezhdina ◽  
Jorge Soares David
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Bibliographic Databases ◽  
Climate Zone ◽  
Hot Climate ◽  
Tree Survival ◽  
The Mediterranean

Aim of the study: Water scarcity is the main limitation to forest growth and tree survival in the Mediterranean hot climate zone. This paper reviews literature on the relations between water and forests in the region, and their implications on forest and water resources management. The analysis is based on a hydraulic interpretation of tree functioning.Area of the study: The review covers research carried out in the Mediterranean hot climate zone, put into perspective of wider/global research on the subject. The scales of analysis range from the tree to catchment levels.Material and Methods: For literature review we used Scopus, Web of Science and Google Scholar as bibliographic databases. Data from two Quercus suber sites in Portugal were used for illustrative purposes.Main results: We identify knowledge gaps and discuss options to better adapt forest management to climate change under a tree water use/availability perspective. Forest management is also discussed within the wider context of catchment water balance: water is a constraint for biomass production, but also for other human activities such as urban supply, industry and irrigated agriculture.Research highlights: Given the scarce and variable (in space and in time) water availability in the region, further research is needed on: mapping the spatial heterogeneity of water availability to trees; adjustment of tree density to local conditions; silvicultural practices that do not damage soil properties or roots; irrigation of forest plantations in some specific areas; tree breeding. Also, a closer cooperation between forest and water managers is needed.Keywords: tree hydraulics; tree mortality; climate change; forest management; water resources.

scholarly journals Coupled forest growth-hydrology modelling as an instrument for the assessment of effects of forest management on hydrology in forested catchments

2011 ◽  
Vol 27 ◽  
pp. 149-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Sutmöller ◽  
S. Hentschel ◽  
J. Hansen ◽  
H. Meesenburg
Keyword(s):  
Forest Management ◽  
Growth Parameters ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Interactive System ◽  
Forest Conversion ◽  
Stand Development ◽  
Forested Catchments ◽  
Forestry Practices ◽  
Forest Growth Model

Abstract. The type and intensity of forest management directly influences regional catchment hydrology. Future forest management must optimise the effects of its practices to achieve sustainable management. With scenario analysis of forestry practices, the effects of different forest utilisation strategies on the hydrology of forested catchments can be temporally and spatially quantified. The approach adopted in this study necessitated the development of an interactive system for the spatially distributed modelling of hydrology in relation to forest stand development. Consequently, a forest growth model was used to simulate stand development assuming various forest management activities. Selected simulated forest growth parameters were entered into the hydrological model to simulate water fluxes under different conditions of forest structure. The approach enables the spatially differentiated quantification of changes in the water regime (e.g. increased evapotranspiration). The results of hydrological simulations in the study area, the Oker catchment (northern Harz Mountains), show that forests contribute to the protection of water systems because they have a balancing effect on the hydrological regime. As scenario simulations also suggest, however, forestry practices can also lead to substantial changes in water budgets of forested catchments. The preservation of the hydrological services of forests requires a sustainable and long-term forest conversion on the basis of current management directives for near natural silviculture. Management strategies on basis of moderate harvesting regimes are preferred because of their limited impact on the water budget.

Potential impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of key forest tree species in Italy under RCP4.5 for 2050s

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo Pecchi ◽  
Maurizio Marchi ◽  
Marco Moriondo ◽  
Giovanni Forzieri ◽  
Marco Ammoniaci ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Species Richness ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Mixed Stands ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Potential Impact

Abstract Background: Forests provide a range of ecosystem services essential for the human wellbeing and their ability is influenced by climate background and further connected to forest management strategies. Italy is a well-known biodiversity hotspot but an uncertainty assessment of the potential impact of climate change is still missing in this country. The aim of this paper is model the potential impact of climate change on 19 tree species occurring across the Italian forests using a species distribution modelling approach, six different Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and one Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for 2050s under an intermediate forcing scenario (RCP 4.5). Results: While no sensible variation in the spatial distribution of the total forested area has been predicted with some tree species gaining space and covering the spatial contractions of others, results showed substantial differences between each species and different climate models. The analyses reported an unchanged amount of total land suitability to forest growth in mountain areas while smaller values were predicted for valleys and floodplains than high-elevation areas. Pure woods were predicted as the most influenced when compared with mixed stands which are characterized by a greater species richness and therefore a supposed higher level of biodiversity and resilience to climate change threatens. Pure softwood stands (e.g. Pinus, Abies) were more sensitive than hardwoods (e.g. Fagus, Quercus), probably due to their artificial origin which established pure stands with tree species generally more prone to admixture with others in (semi)-natural ecosystems.Conclusions: Forest management could play a fundamental role to reduce the potential impact of climate change on forest ecosystems. Silvicultural practices should be aimed at increasing the species richness and favouring hardwoods currently growing as dominating species under conifers canopy, stimulating the natural regeneration, gene flow and supporting (spatial) migration processes.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Forest Management: Białowieża Primeval Forest Case Study

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 97
Author(s):  
Wojciech Kędziora ◽  
Roman Wójcik ◽  
Katarzyna Szyc
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Primeval Forest ◽  
Białowieża Primeval Forest

Ecosystems of the Białowieża Primeval Forest are characterized by a high degree of naturalness and biodiversity. Changes in species and age structure in the long-term period resulted from both natural processes and human impact (indirectly and directly). The assessment of changes and knowledge about the current state allows to decide what protective measures should be taken to improve the condition of forest ecosystems. One can also evaluate the processes taking place and their direction, and therefore also assess the need for any actions. In the conducted research, the changes occurring in forest ecosystems with particular emphasis on spruce were assessed. An almost 100-year process of evolution of the species share in stands was analyzed up to 2015 using historical forest management and present spatial information data. Habitat data were used to assess the suitable and unsuitable conditions for spruce dominance. In addition, long-term development model was used for forecasting of the share of this species using data from beginning of 2015. Those results were compared with data from more than 500 sample plots measured in 2016–2018, just after bark beetle (Ips typographus) outbreak in 2015. Spruce has doubled, from 12% to 25%, its share of the Bialowieża Forests area in the first half of 20th century and was stable for the second half. The development model run just before the outbreak suggested stable decrease of spruce share in the horizon of 2065 down to 23%. The habitat model from 2015 was suggesting that spruce suitable sites covered only 12% of the area and only 50% of that area being dominated by spruce; the residue growing in unfavorable habitat conditions. The recent outbreak, with no management control, has dwindled spruce share down below 9%, showing habitual model results being better than the development model scenario.

scholarly journals Spatial Pattern of Climate Change Effects on Lithuanian Forestry

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 809 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gintautas Mozgeris ◽  
Vilis Brukas ◽  
Nerijus Pivoriūnas ◽  
Gintautas Činga ◽  
Ekaterina Makrickienė ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Decision Support Systems ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Support Systems ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Change Effects

Research Highlights: Validating modelling approach which combines global framework conditions in the form of climate and policy scenarios with the use of forest decision support system to assess climate change impacts on the sustainability of forest management. Background and Objectives: Forests and forestry have been confirmed to be sensitive to climate. On the other hand, human efforts to mitigate climate change influence forests and forest management. To facilitate the evaluation of future sustainability of forest management, decision support systems are applied. Our aims are to: (1) Adopt and validate decision support tool to incorporate climate change and its mitigation impacts on forest growth, global timber demands and prices for simulating future trends of forest ecosystem services in Lithuania, (2) determine the magnitude and spatial patterns of climate change effects on Lithuanian forests and forest management in the future, supposing that current forestry practices are continued. Materials and Methods: Upgraded version of Lithuanian forestry simulator Kupolis was used to model the development of all forests in the country until 2120 under management conditions of three climate change scenarios. Selected stand-level forest and forest management characteristics were aggregated to the level of regional branches of the State Forest Enterprise and analyzed for the spatial and temporal patterns of climate change effects. Results: Increased forest growth under a warmer future climate resulted in larger tree dimensions, volumes of growing stock, naturally dying trees, harvested assortments, and also higher profits from forestry activities. Negative impacts were detected for the share of broadleaved tree species in the standing volume and the tree species diversity. Climate change effects resulted in spatially clustered patterns—increasing stand productivity, and amounts of harvested timber were concentrated in the regions with dominating coniferous species, while the same areas were exposed to negative dynamics of biodiversity-related forest attributes. Current forest characteristics explained 70% or more of the variance of climate change effects on key forest and forest management attributes. Conclusions: Using forest decision support systems, climate change scenarios and considering the balance of delivered ecosystem services is suggested as a methodological framework for validating forest management alternatives aiming for more adaptiveness in Lithuanian forestry.

scholarly journals Projected effects of climate change on the carbon stocks of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) forests in Zala County, Hungary

2016 ◽  
Vol 62 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zoltán Somogyi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Fagus Sylvatica ◽  
European Beech ◽  
Carbon Stocks ◽  
Carbon Accounting ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Fagus Sylvatica L ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Recent studies suggest that climate change will lead to the local extinction of many tree species from large areas during this century, affecting the functioning and ecosystem services of many forests. This study reports on projected carbon losses due to the assumed local climate change-driven extinction of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) from Zala County, South-Western Hungary, where the species grows at the xeric limit of its distribution. The losses were calculated as a difference between carbon stocks in climate change scenarios assuming an exponentially increasing forest decline over time, and those in a baseline scenario assuming no climate change. In the climate change scenarios, three different sets of forest management adaptation measures were studied: (1) only harvesting damaged stands, (2) additionally salvaging dead trees that died due to climate change, and (3) replacing, at an increasing rate over time, beech with sessile oak (Quercus petraea Matt. Lieb.) after final harvest. Projections were made using the open access carbon accounting model CASMOFOR based on modeling or assuming effects of climate change on mortality, tree growth, root-to-shoot ratio and decomposition rates. Results demonstrate that, if beech disappears from the region as projected by the end of the century, over 80% of above-ground biomass carbon, and over 60% of the carbon stocks of all pools (excluding soils) of the forests will be lost by 2100. Such emission rates on large areas may have a discernible positive feedback on climate change, and can only partially be offset by the forest management adaptation measures.

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