scholarly journals Natural variability vs forced signal in the 2015–2019 Central American drought

2021 ◽  
Vol 168 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Salvatore Pascale ◽  
Sarah B. Kapnick ◽  
Thomas L. Delworth ◽  
Hugo G. Hidalgo ◽  
William F. Cooke
Keyword(s):  
Central America ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Central American ◽  
Internal Climate Variability ◽  
Large Ensembles ◽  
High Emission ◽  
Decadal Trend ◽  
Drying Trend ◽  
Model Ensembles ◽  
Anthropogenic Contributions

AbstractThe recent multi-year 2015–2019 drought after a multi-decadal drying trend over Central America raises the question of whether anthropogenic climate change (ACC) played a role in exacerbating these events. While the occurrence of the 2015–2019 drought in Central America has been asserted to be associated with ACC, we lack an assessment of natural vs anthropogenic contributions. Here, we use five different large ensembles—including high-resolution ensembles (i.e., 0.5∘ horizontally)—to estimate the contribution of ACC to the probability of occurrence of the 2015–2019 event and the recent multi-decadal trend. The comparison of ensembles forced with natural and natural plus anthropogenic forcing suggests that the recent 40-year trend is likely associated with internal climate variability. However, the 2015–2019 rainfall deficit has been made more likely by ACC. The synthesis of the results from model ensembles supports the notion of a significant increase, by a factor of four, over the last century for the 2015–2019 meteorological drought to occur because of ACC. All the model results further suggest that, under intermediate and high emission scenarios, the likelihood of similar drought events will continue to increase substantially over the next decades.

Marginalization, Assimilation, and Resurgence: Indigenous People in Central America since Independence

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wolfgang Gabbert
Keyword(s):  
Central America ◽  
Indigenous People ◽  
Cultural Difference ◽  
Indigenous Population ◽  
Active Role ◽  
Central American ◽  
Colonial Rule ◽  
Access To Education ◽  
Land Loss ◽  
Agricultural Export

While the end of colonial rule brought formal equality it did not end discrimination and marginalization of the indigenous population in independent Central America. Many suffered land loss and proletarianization in the emerging agricultural export economy. However, indigenous people were not mere victims of exploitation, displacement, and ladinization but played an often active role in Central American politics. Participation in the market economy and access to education fostered stratification within the indigenous population. The emergence of well-off and educated Indians and changes in international politics promoting multiculturalism contributed to the emergence of indigenous movements in recent decades. While some progress has been made concerning the recognition of cultural difference and autonomy, land rights are still a much disputed issue.

Exploring ethno-racial policy for the Garinagu in Central America: making the case for Black Indigeneity

2020 ◽  
pp. 117718012097900
Author(s):  
Sheryl Felecia Means
Keyword(s):  
Central America ◽  
Cultural Policy ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Water Rights ◽  
Central American ◽  
Language Attrition ◽  
Political Autonomy ◽  
Collective Rights ◽  
Land And Water Rights ◽  
Racial Policy

Across the Central American region, several groups received political autonomy by the end of the 20th century. By granting autonomy to these groups, countries like Nicaragua acknowledged certain populations as members of distinct ethnic groups. This was not the case for every country or group in the region, and the lack of effective ethno-racial policy-making considerations across Central America has led to language attrition, loss of land and water rights, and commodification of historic communities. This article focuses on Honduras and Belize as unique sites of ethno-racial and socio-cultural policy making, group identity making and unmaking, and group rights for the Garinagu. Specifically, this work forwards a re-examination of national ethno-racial policy and a critical assessment of political models based on ethno-cultural collective rights intended to combat racial discrimination.

UNICEF in Central America

1960 ◽  
Vol 329 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-77
Author(s):  
Alice C. Shaffer
Keyword(s):  
United Nations ◽  
Central America ◽  
International Organizations ◽  
Central American ◽  
The World ◽  
Working Together ◽  
Integrated Programs ◽  
Regional Basis ◽  
The United Nations

Central America has been one of the pioneer areas for the United Nations Children's Fund assisted pro grams. When the United Nations Children's Fund, under a broadened mandate from the United Nations, shifted the emphasis of its aid from emergency to long term and from war-torn countries to those economically less developed, Cen tral American governments immediately requested its assist ance to strengthen and extend services to children and mothers. As one of the first areas in the world to aim at the eradication of malaria and to have engaged in an inten sive campaign against malnutrition on a regional basis, the Central American experiences in these fields have become known, watched, and studied by people from many countries. Against this background, international and bilateral organi zations are working together with governments as they broaden the scope and the extent of their programs. Ten years of co-operative action have highlighted the need for train ing of personnel, both professional and auxiliary. This period has also made clear the value of more integrated programs with wider collaboration both within the ministries of government and between the international organizations.

Sir Lionel Carden's Proposed Agreement on Central America, 1912

1959 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 291-295
Author(s):  
Walter V. Scholes
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Central America ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Central American ◽  
Economic Interests ◽  
Department Of State ◽  
Secretary Of State ◽  
Early Twentieth Century ◽  
Foreign Office

As American economic interests expanded in Central America in the early twentieth century, many British representatives concluded that the Foreign Office would have to devise some method to protect existing British investments against American encroachment. When Secretary of State Knox visited Central America in 1912, he and Sir Lionel E. G. Carden, the British Minister to Central America, discussed Central American affairs when they met in Guatemala on March 16. Knox could scarcely have been very sympathetic as Carden expounded the British point of view, for the Department of State believed that the greatest obstacle to the success of its policy in Central America was none other than the British Minister. As early as April, 1910, Knox had unsuccessfully tried to have Carden transferred from his post; the attempt failed because Sir Edward Grey backed up his Minister.

Our Policy of Non-Recognition in Central America

1931 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 298-301 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chandler P. Anderson
Keyword(s):  
Central America ◽  
Central American ◽  
Treaty Obligation

The treaty obligation, which the Central American countries have imposed upon themselves, to refuse recognition to new governments established in those countries in certain specified circumstances, was first adopted in their General Treaty of Peace and Amity of December 20, 1907, and their supplemental treaty of the same date.2 The stipulations of these treaties were restated and consolidated in their later General Treaty of Peace and Amity of February 7, 1923, which treaty is still in force.3

The United States and the Rise of General Maximiliano Hernández Martínez

1971 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 151-172 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth J. Grieb
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
El Salvador ◽  
Central America ◽  
American Politics ◽  
State Department ◽  
The United States ◽  
The State ◽  
Central American ◽  
Coup D'etat ◽  
The Military

The militarycoup d'étatwhich installed General Maximiliano Hernández Martínez as President of El Salvador during December 1931 created a crisis involving the 1923 Washington Treaties. By the terms of these accords, the Central American nadons had pledged to withhold recognition from governments seizing power through force in any of the isthmian republics. Although not a signatory of the treaty, the United States based its recognition policy on this principle. Through this means the State Department had attempted to impose some stability in Central America, by discouraging revolts. With the co-operation of the isthmian governments, United States diplomats endeavored to bring pressure to bear on the leaders of any uprising, to deny them the fruits of their victory, and thus reduce the constant series ofcoupsandcounter-coupsthat normally characterized Central American politics.

The Caravana of Central American Mothers in Mexico: Performances of Devotional and Saintly Motherhood on a Transnational Stage-in-Motion

2021 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 266-284
Author(s):  
ANA ELENA PUGA
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Central America ◽  
Family Reunification ◽  
Central American ◽  
Nation State ◽  
Domestic Sphere ◽  
Left Behind ◽  
Victims Of Violence ◽  
And Migration ◽  
The Disappeared

Like earlier mother activism in Latin America, the annual Caravana de Madres Centroamericanas (Caravan of Central American Mothers) through Mexico strategically activates the traditional archetype of mothers as passive, pious, suffering victims whose self-abnegation forces them, almost against their will, out of their supposedly natural domestic sphere. Three elements, however, distinguish the caravana from earlier protests staged by mothers. First, this protest crosses national borders, functioning as a transnational pilgrimage to the memory of the disappeared relative. This stage-in-motion temporarily spotlights and claims the spaces traversed by undocumented Central American migrants in Mexico, attempting to recast those migrants as victims of violence rather than as criminals. Second, through performances of both devotional motherhood and saintly motherhood, the caravana's mother-based activism de-normalizes violence related to drugs and migration. Third, performances of family reunification staged by the caravana organizers take place in the few cases in which they manage to locate family members who have not fallen prey to violence but have simply resettled in Mexico and abandoned or lost touch with families left behind in Central America. These performances of family reunification serve important functions: they shift the performance of motherhood from devotion to saintly tolerance, patience and forgiveness – even toward prodigal offspring who were ‘lost’ for years; they provide a chance for other mothers to vicariously feel joy and hope that their children are still alive; they exemplify world citizens challenging incompetent or indifferent nation state authorities; and they enact a symbolic unification of Central America and Mexico in defiance of contemporary nation state borders.

Identification of Tropical Cyclones’ Critical Positions Associated with Extreme Precipitation Events in Central America

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hugo G. Hidalgo ◽  
Eric J. Alfaro ◽  
Franklin Hernández-Castro ◽  
Paula M. Pérez-Briceño
Keyword(s):  
Central America ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Critical Path ◽  
Central American ◽  
Pacific Basin ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
Indirect Impacts ◽  
Precipitation Events

<p>Tropical cyclones are one of the most important causes of disasters in Central America. Using historical (1970–2010) tracks of cyclones in the Caribbean and Pacific basin, we identify critical path locations where these low-pressure systems cause the highest number of floods in a set of 88 precipitation stations in the region. Results show that tropical cyclones from the Caribbean and Pacific basin produce a large number of indirect impacts on the Pacific slope of the Central American isthmus. Although the direct impact of a tropical cyclone usually results in devastation in the affected region, the indirect effects are more common and sometimes equally severe. In fact, the storm does not need to be an intense hurricane to cause considerable impacts and damage. The location of even a lower intensity storm in critical positions of the oceanic basin can result in destructive indirect impacts in Central America. The identification of critical positions can be used for emergency agencies in the region to issue alerts of possible flooding and catastrophic events.</p>

Mediterranean climate change projections: an update from CMIP5 and CMIP6.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Josep Cos ◽  
Francisco J Doblas-Reyes ◽  
Martin Jury
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Weighting Scheme ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
High Emission ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Model Ensembles ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Model Weighting

<p>The Mediterranean has been identified as a climate change hot-spot due to increased warming trends and precipitation decline. Recently, CMIP6 was found to show a higher climate sensitivity than its predecessor CMIP5, potentially further exacerbating related impacts on the Mediterranean region.</p><p>To estimate the impacts of the ongoing climate change on the region, we compare projections of various CMIP5 and CMIP6 experiments and scenarios. In particular, we focus on summer and winter changes in temperature and precipitation for the 21st century under RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6, RCP4.5/SSP2-4.5 and RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 as well as the high resolution HighResMIP experiments. Additionally, to give robust estimates of projected changes we apply a novel model weighting scheme, accounting for historical performance and inter-independence of the multi-member multi-model ensembles, using ERA5, JRA55 and WFDE5 as observational reference. </p><p>Our results indicate a significant and robust warming over the Mediterranean during the 21st century irrespective of the used ensemble and experiments. Nevertheless, the often attested amplified Mediterranean warming is only found for summer. The projected changes vary between the CMIP5 and CMIP6, with the latter projecting a stronger warming. For the high emission scenarios and without weighting, CMIP5 indicates a warming between 4 and 7.7ºC in summer and 2.7 and 5ºC in winter, while CMIP6 projects temperature increases between 5.6 and 9.2ºC in summer and 3.2 to 6.8ºC in winter until 2081-2100 in respect to 1985-2005. In contrast to temperature, precipitation changes show a higher level of uncertainty and spatial heterogeneity. However, for the high emission scenario, a robust decline in precipitation is projected for large parts of the Mediterranean during summer. First results applying the model weighting scheme indicate reductions in CMIP6 and increases in CMIP5 warming trends, thereby reducing differences between the two ensembles.</p>

Education and Research in Astronomy in Central America

1998 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 885-887
Author(s):  
M. C. Pineda De Carias
Keyword(s):  
El Salvador ◽  
Central America ◽  
International Cooperation ◽  
Central American ◽  
University Staff ◽  
National University ◽  
San Carlos ◽  
Observational Techniques ◽  
Astronomy And Astrophysics

Recently, important efforts have been made to organize and consolidate the Assembly of Central American Astronomers (AAAC), an organization created to contribute to the development of astronomy and astrophysics in Central America, with the help of international cooperation; the Central American Courses in Astronomy and Astrophysics, have been hosted each year by a different national university in Central America (1995: Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Honduras, 1996: Universidad de El Salvador, 1997: Universidad de San Carlos de Guatemala, and 1998: Universidad de Panama). These courses aimed to provide an exchange of knowledge and experience among university staff and students interested in continuing studies in Astronomy and Astrophysics. Regional Observational Campaigns have been organized to train young astronomers in the use of astronomical equipment and observational techniques. It seems that the broad development of astronomy and astrophysics in Central American as a whole, will be possible only when nuclei of astronomers in each of the countries concerned begin to develop many more activities, countries As part of the III Central American Course on Astronomy and Astrophysics (III-CURCAA, April 1997, Guatemala), in a forum about Education and Research in Astronomy in Central America, several important conclusions were stated. In this paper we present the six most relevant conclusions discussed there.

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