scholarly journals How to measure uncertainty in uncertainty sampling for active learning

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vu-Linh Nguyen ◽  
Mohammad Hossein Shaker ◽  
Eyke Hüllermeier
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Active Learning ◽  
Sampling Strategies ◽  
Total Uncertainty ◽  
Uncertainty Sampling ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Alternative Approaches ◽  
Active Learner ◽  
Probabilistic Nature ◽  
Different Sources

AbstractVarious strategies for active learning have been proposed in the machine learning literature. In uncertainty sampling, which is among the most popular approaches, the active learner sequentially queries the label of those instances for which its current prediction is maximally uncertain. The predictions as well as the measures used to quantify the degree of uncertainty, such as entropy, are traditionally of a probabilistic nature. Yet, alternative approaches to capturing uncertainty in machine learning, alongside with corresponding uncertainty measures, have been proposed in recent years. In particular, some of these measures seek to distinguish different sources and to separate different types of uncertainty, such as the reducible (epistemic) and the irreducible (aleatoric) part of the total uncertainty in a prediction. The goal of this paper is to elaborate on the usefulness of such measures for uncertainty sampling, and to compare their performance in active learning. To this end, we instantiate uncertainty sampling with different measures, analyze the properties of the sampling strategies thus obtained, and compare them in an experimental study.

scholarly journals Active-Learning Approaches for Landslide Mapping Using Support Vector Machines

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 2588
Author(s):  
Zhihao Wang ◽  
Alexander Brenning
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Active Learning ◽  
Emergency Response ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Random Sampling ◽  
Performance Measure ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Uncertainty Sampling ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Landslide Mapping

Ex post landslide mapping for emergency response and ex ante landslide susceptibility modelling for hazard mitigation are two important application scenarios that require the development of accurate, yet cost-effective spatial landslide models. However, the manual labelling of instances for training machine learning models is time-consuming given the data requirements of flexible data-driven algorithms and the small percentage of area covered by landslides. Active learning aims to reduce labelling costs by selecting more informative instances. In this study, two common active-learning strategies, uncertainty sampling and query by committee, are combined with the support vector machine (SVM), a state-of-the-art machine-learning technique, in a landslide mapping case study in order to assess their possible benefits compared to simple random sampling of training locations. By selecting more “informative” instances, the SVMs with active learning based on uncertainty sampling outperformed both random sampling and query-by-committee strategies when considering mean AUROC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) as performance measure. Uncertainty sampling also produced more stable performances with a smaller AUROC standard deviation across repetitions. In conclusion, under limited data conditions, uncertainty sampling reduces the amount of expert time needed by selecting more informative instances for SVM training. We therefore recommend incorporating active learning with uncertainty sampling into interactive landslide modelling workflows, especially in emergency response settings, but also in landslide susceptibility modelling.

scholarly journals User behaviour analysis and churn prediction in ISP

2020 ◽  
pp. 57-67
Author(s):  
Ahmet Turkmen ◽  
Cenk Anil Bahcevan ◽  
Youssef Alkhanafseh ◽  
Esra Karabiyik
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Service Sector ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Query Logs ◽  
Boosting Algorithm ◽  
Different Sources ◽  
Better Than

There is no doubt that customer retention is vital for the service sector as companies’ revenue is significantly based on their customers’ financial returns. The prediction of customers who are at the risk of leaving a company’s services is not possible without using their connection details, support tickets and network traffic usage data. This paper demonstrates the importance of data mining and its outcome in the telecommunication area. The data in this paper are collected from different sources like Net Flow logs, call records and DNS query logs. These different types of data are aggregated together to decrease the missing information. Finally, machine learning algorithms are evaluated based on the customer dataset. The results of this study indicate that the gradient boosting algorithm performs better than other machine learning algorithms for this dataset.   Keywords: Data analysis, customer satisfaction, subscriber churn, machine learning, telecommunication.

Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Techniques Using Predictive Modeling

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ritu Khandelwal ◽  
Hemlata Goyal ◽  
Rajveer Singh Shekhawat
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Data Science ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Learning Stage ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Different Types

Introduction: Machine learning is an intelligent technology that works as a bridge between businesses and data science. With the involvement of data science, the business goal focuses on findings to get valuable insights on available data. The large part of Indian Cinema is Bollywood which is a multi-million dollar industry. This paper attempts to predict whether the upcoming Bollywood Movie would be Blockbuster, Superhit, Hit, Average or Flop. For this Machine Learning techniques (classification and prediction) will be applied. To make classifier or prediction model first step is the learning stage in which we need to give the training data set to train the model by applying some technique or algorithm and after that different rules are generated which helps to make a model and predict future trends in different types of organizations. Methods: All the techniques related to classification and Prediction such as Support Vector Machine(SVM), Random Forest, Decision Tree, Naïve Bayes, Logistic Regression, Adaboost, and KNN will be applied and try to find out efficient and effective results. All these functionalities can be applied with GUI Based workflows available with various categories such as data, Visualize, Model, and Evaluate. Result: To make classifier or prediction model first step is learning stage in which we need to give the training data set to train the model by applying some technique or algorithm and after that different rules are generated which helps to make a model and predict future trends in different types of organizations Conclusion: This paper focuses on Comparative Analysis that would be performed based on different parameters such as Accuracy, Confusion Matrix to identify the best possible model for predicting the movie Success. By using Advertisement Propaganda, they can plan for the best time to release the movie according to the predicted success rate to gain higher benefits. Discussion: Data Mining is the process of discovering different patterns from large data sets and from that various relationships are also discovered to solve various problems that come in business and helps to predict the forthcoming trends. This Prediction can help Production Houses for Advertisement Propaganda and also they can plan their costs and by assuring these factors they can make the movie more profitable.

scholarly journals Model-Based Probabilistic Inversion Using Magnetic Data: A Case Study on the Kevitsa Deposit

Geosciences ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 150
Author(s):  
Nilgün Güdük ◽  
Miguel de la Varga ◽  
Janne Kaukolinna ◽  
Florian Wellmann
Keyword(s):  
Structural Parameters ◽  
Rock Properties ◽  
Magnetic Data ◽  
Geological Model ◽  
Borehole Data ◽  
Likelihood Functions ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Geophysical Information ◽  
Different Sources

Structural geological models are widely used to represent relevant geological interfaces and property distributions in the subsurface. Considering the inherent uncertainty of these models, the non-uniqueness of geophysical inverse problems, and the growing availability of data, there is a need for methods that integrate different types of data consistently and consider the uncertainties quantitatively. Probabilistic inference provides a suitable tool for this purpose. Using a Bayesian framework, geological modeling can be considered as an integral part of the inversion and thereby naturally constrain geophysical inversion procedures. This integration prevents geologically unrealistic results and provides the opportunity to include geological and geophysical information in the inversion. This information can be from different sources and is added to the framework through likelihood functions. We applied this methodology to the structurally complex Kevitsa deposit in Finland. We started with an interpretation-based 3D geological model and defined the uncertainties in our geological model through probability density functions. Airborne magnetic data and geological interpretations of borehole data were used to define geophysical and geological likelihoods, respectively. The geophysical data were linked to the uncertain structural parameters through the rock properties. The result of the inverse problem was an ensemble of realized models. These structural models and their uncertainties are visualized using information entropy, which allows for quantitative analysis. Our results show that with our methodology, we can use well-defined likelihood functions to add meaningful information to our initial model without requiring a computationally-heavy full grid inversion, discrepancies between model and data are spotted more easily, and the complementary strength of different types of data can be integrated into one framework.

Prediction of aircraft estimated time of arrival using machine learning methods

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
O. Basturk ◽  
C. Cetek
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Web Application ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Time Of Arrival ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Trajectory Data ◽  
Different Sources ◽  
Machine Learning Models

ABSTRACT In this study, prediction of aircraft Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) is proposed using machine learning algorithms. Accurate prediction of ETA is important for management of delay and air traffic flow, runway assignment, gate assignment, collaborative decision making (CDM), coordination of ground personnel and equipment, and optimisation of arrival sequence etc. Machine learning is able to learn from experience and make predictions with weak assumptions or no assumptions at all. In the proposed approach, general flight information, trajectory data and weather data were obtained from different sources in various formats. Raw data were converted to tidy data and inserted into a relational database. To obtain the features for training the machine learning models, the data were explored, cleaned and transformed into convenient features. New features were also derived from the available data. Random forests and deep neural networks were used to train the machine learning models. Both models can predict the ETA with a mean absolute error (MAE) less than 6min after departure, and less than 3min after terminal manoeuvring area (TMA) entrance. Additionally, a web application was developed to dynamically predict the ETA using proposed models.

scholarly journals Not all biases are bad: equitable and inequitable biases in machine learning and radiology

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirjam Pot ◽  
Nathalie Kieusseyan ◽  
Barbara Prainsack
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Human Error ◽  
Technical Problem ◽  
Social Dimension ◽  
Patient Treatment ◽  
Technical Solution ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Human Decision

AbstractThe application of machine learning (ML) technologies in medicine generally but also in radiology more specifically is hoped to improve clinical processes and the provision of healthcare. A central motivation in this regard is to advance patient treatment by reducing human error and increasing the accuracy of prognosis, diagnosis and therapy decisions. There is, however, also increasing awareness about bias in ML technologies and its potentially harmful consequences. Biases refer to systematic distortions of datasets, algorithms, or human decision making. These systematic distortions are understood to have negative effects on the quality of an outcome in terms of accuracy, fairness, or transparency. But biases are not only a technical problem that requires a technical solution. Because they often also have a social dimension, the ‘distorted’ outcomes they yield often have implications for equity. This paper assesses different types of biases that can emerge within applications of ML in radiology, and discusses in what cases such biases are problematic. Drawing upon theories of equity in healthcare, we argue that while some biases are harmful and should be acted upon, others might be unproblematic and even desirable—exactly because they can contribute to overcome inequities.

scholarly journals A Survey on Bias and Fairness in Machine Learning

2021 ◽  
Vol 54 (6) ◽  
pp. 1-35
Author(s):  
Ninareh Mehrabi ◽  
Fred Morstatter ◽  
Nripsuta Saxena ◽  
Kristina Lerman ◽  
Aram Galstyan
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Real World ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Future Directions ◽  
Discriminatory Behavior ◽  
Real World Applications ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Different Sources

With the widespread use of artificial intelligence (AI) systems and applications in our everyday lives, accounting for fairness has gained significant importance in designing and engineering of such systems. AI systems can be used in many sensitive environments to make important and life-changing decisions; thus, it is crucial to ensure that these decisions do not reflect discriminatory behavior toward certain groups or populations. More recently some work has been developed in traditional machine learning and deep learning that address such challenges in different subdomains. With the commercialization of these systems, researchers are becoming more aware of the biases that these applications can contain and are attempting to address them. In this survey, we investigated different real-world applications that have shown biases in various ways, and we listed different sources of biases that can affect AI applications. We then created a taxonomy for fairness definitions that machine learning researchers have defined to avoid the existing bias in AI systems. In addition to that, we examined different domains and subdomains in AI showing what researchers have observed with regard to unfair outcomes in the state-of-the-art methods and ways they have tried to address them. There are still many future directions and solutions that can be taken to mitigate the problem of bias in AI systems. We are hoping that this survey will motivate researchers to tackle these issues in the near future by observing existing work in their respective fields.

scholarly journals A transferable active-learning strategy for reactive molecular force fields

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom Young ◽  
Tristan Johnston-Wood ◽  
Volker L. Deringer ◽  
Fernanda Duarte
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Active Learning ◽  
Learning Strategy ◽  
Force Fields ◽  
Molecular Simulations ◽  
Quantum Mechanical ◽  
Interatomic Potentials ◽  
Molecular Force ◽  
High Level ◽  
Active Learning Strategy

Predictive molecular simulations require fast, accurate and reactive interatomic potentials. Machine learning offers a promising approach to construct such potentials by fitting energies and forces to high-level quantum-mechanical data, but...

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