scholarly journals The dynamics of entropy in the COVID-19 outbreaks

2020 ◽  
Vol 101 (3) ◽  
pp. 1847-1869 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ziqi Wang ◽  
Marco Broccardo ◽  
Arnaud Mignan ◽  
Didier Sornette
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Evolution ◽  
Central Element ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Simple Modification ◽  
Absolute Change ◽  
Address Data ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Stochastic Framework ◽  
The Absolute ◽  
The Impact

Abstract With the unfolding of the COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical modelling of epidemics has been perceived and used as a central element in understanding, predicting, and governing the pandemic event. However, soon it became clear that long-term predictions were extremely challenging to address. In addition, it is still unclear which metric shall be used for a global description of the evolution of the outbreaks. Yet a robust modelling of pandemic dynamics and a consistent choice of the transmission metric is crucial for an in-depth understanding of the macroscopic phenomenology and better-informed mitigation strategies. In this study, we propose a Markovian stochastic framework designed for describing the evolution of entropy during the COVID-19 pandemic together with the instantaneous reproductive ratio. Then, we introduce and use entropy-based metrics of global transmission to measure the impact and the temporal evolution of a pandemic event. In the formulation of the model, the temporal evolution of the outbreak is modelled by an equation governing the probability distribution that describes a nonlinear Markov process of a statistically averaged individual, leading to a clear physical interpretation. The time-dependent parameters are formulated by adaptive basis functions, leading to a parsimonious representation. In addition, we provide a full Bayesian inversion scheme for calibration together with a coherent strategy to address data unreliability. The time evolution of the entropy rate, the absolute change in the system entropy, and the instantaneous reproductive ratio are natural and transparent outputs of this framework. The framework has the appealing property of being applicable to any compartmental epidemic model. As an illustration, we apply the proposed approach to a simple modification of the susceptible–exposed–infected–removed model. Applying the model to the Hubei region, South Korean, Italian, Spanish, German, and French COVID-19 datasets, we discover significant difference in the absolute change of entropy but highly regular trends for both the entropy evolution and the instantaneous reproductive ratio.

Supporting Youth With Autism Learning Social Competence: A Comparison of Game- and Nongame-Based Activities in 3D Virtual World

2021 ◽  
pp. 073563312110220
Author(s):  
Xianhui Wang ◽  
Wanli Xing
Keyword(s):  
Social Interaction ◽  
Social Competence ◽  
Central Element ◽  
Autism Spectrum ◽  
Virtual Learning Environment ◽  
Learning Activities ◽  
Behavior Patterns ◽  
Interaction Behavior ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Impact

This study explored youth with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) learning social competence in the context of innovative 3D virtual learning environment and the effects of gaming as a central element of the learning experience. The empirical study retrospectively compared the social interactions of 11 adolescents with ASD in game-and nongame-based 3D collaborative learning activities in the same social competence training curriculum. We employed a learning analytics approach - association rule mining to uncover the associative rules of verbal social interaction and nonverbal social interaction contributors from the large dataset of the coded social behaviors. By comparing the rules across the game and nongame activities, we found a significant difference in youth with ASD’s social performance. The results of the group comparison study indicated that the co-occurrence of verbal and nonverbal behaviors is much stronger in the game-based learning activities. The game activities also yielded more diverse social interaction behavior patterns. On the other hand, in the nongame activities, students’ social interaction behavior patterns are much more limited. Furthermore, the impact of game design principles on learning is then discussed in this paper.

scholarly journals Sugarcane Farmers Perception, Comprehension Regarding Climate Change and its Mitigation Through Adoption of Cultural Practices

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 71-77
Author(s):  
Hafiz Ali Raza ◽  
Rana Muhammad Amir ◽  
Farzana Zaheer Syed ◽  
Muhammad Shoaib Ajnum ◽  
Imran Kareem ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Cultural Practices ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Structured Interview ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Randomized Sampling ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Impact

Sugarcane is an important cash crop in Pakistan. Recently, the average per hectare production of sugarcane is low due to climatic variation. Therefore, sugarcane farmers are threatened by this emerging issue that has drastically affected their livelihoods, food security, and sustainability. This study was designed to analyze the perception, comprehension, and adoption of cultural practices in the mitigation of the impact of climate change. For this purpose, district Rahim yar khan was selected purposively from the Province of Punjab as the universe of the study; as one of the highly cultivated areas among all districts of Punjab. From selected districts, two tehsils were randomly selected, namely Sadiqabad and Kanpur. From each selected tehsil, 5 villages were selected using randomized sampling technique. In each selected village, 18 sugarcane farmers were selected randomly thus, making a total of 180 respondents. The data were collected through quantitative methods. A pre-tested and well-structured interview schedule was developed for the collection of information from sugarcane farmers.  Data were analyzed using both descriptive and inferential statistics through the Statistical Package for Social Sciences. Results indicated that there was a significant difference between the two groups, adopter and non-adopters of mitigation strategies towards climate change. The results revealed that the majority (98.3 % and 75 %) of the growers reported that an increase in temperature and deforestation for the last five years respectively. Moreover, residues burring and deforestation were major causes of climate change followed by an excess of CO2 from agriculture activities and farm operations. The study recommended that the adoption of cultural practices in mitigation of the impact of climate change should be promoted through information sources.

Perceptual Estimation of Diffuse White Level in HDR Images

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (1) ◽  
pp. 195-200
Author(s):  
Fu Jiang ◽  
Mark D. Fairchild ◽  
Kenichiro Masaoka
Keyword(s):  
Luminance Level ◽  
Neutral Density ◽  
Image Content ◽  
Important Concept ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Measurement Methodology ◽  
Appearance Models ◽  
The Absolute ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Perceptual Estimation

Diffuse white is an important concept in all color appearance models. However, there is a lack of research directly about the perceived diffuse white in HDR images. Three experiments were conducted to explore the perceptual estimation of diffuse white in real HDR images when presented on displays. The first experiment showed that the perceptual estimation of diffuse white relied more on the image content than the clipped peak luminance levels. Experiment II used images with different neutral density filters rather than clipping. The normalized luminance levels of the perceptual estimation were similar, depending on image content but not on image absolute luminance levels. Moreover, in both experiments, no significant difference can be found between expert and naive observers. The variance across images agreed with each other between experiment I and II. However, both results demonstrated that the absolute luminance level of observers' estimation is higher than the calibrated diffuse white level. Experiment III focused on exploring the impact of measurement methodologies on the absolute luminance level of the estimated diffuse white. Results of experiment III verified that the absolute luminance level of the perceptual estimation can be manipulated by the measurement methodology but the variance across image content is stable.

Measuring Impact of Stress in Sandwich Generation Caring for Demented Parents

GeroPsych ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 171-179 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurence M. Solberg ◽  
Lauren B. Solberg ◽  
Emily N. Peterson
Keyword(s):  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Exploratory Factor Analysis ◽  
Social Worker ◽  
Resource Availability ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Sandwich Generation ◽  
Item Questionnaire ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Adult Caregivers ◽  
The Impact

Stress in caregivers may affect the healthcare recipients receive. We examined the impact of stress experienced by 45 adult caregivers of their elderly demented parents. The participants completed a 32-item questionnaire about the impact of experienced stress. The questionnaire also asked about interventions that might help to reduce the impact of stress. After exploratory factor analysis, we reduced the 32-item questionnaire to 13 items. Results indicated that caregivers experienced stress, anxiety, and sadness. Also, emotional, but not financial or professional, well-being was significantly impacted. There was no significant difference between the impact of caregiver stress on members from the sandwich generation and those from the nonsandwich generation. Meeting with a social worker for resource availability was identified most frequently as a potentially helpful intervention for coping with the impact of stress.

Prognostic value of absolute monocyte count in chronic lymphocytic leukaemia

2015 ◽  
Vol 156 (15) ◽  
pp. 592-597
Author(s):  
László Szerafin ◽  
János Jakó ◽  
Ferenc Riskó
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Lymphocytic Leukaemia ◽  
Prognostic Value ◽  
Lymphocytic Leukaemia ◽  
Treatment Time ◽  
Monocyte Count ◽  
Time To Treatment ◽  
Causes Of Mortality ◽  
The Absolute ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Overal Survival

Introduction: The low peripheral absolute lymphocyte and high monocyte count have been reported to correlate with poor clinical outcome in various lymphomas and other cancers. However, a few data known about the prognostic value of absolute monocyte count in chronic lymphocytic leukaemia. Aim: The aim of the authors was to investigate the impact of absolute monocyte count measured at the time of diagnosis in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukaemia on the time to treatment and overal survival. Method: Between January 1, 2005 and December 31, 2012, 223 patients with newly-diagnosed chronic lymphocytic leukaemia were included. The rate of patients needing treatment, time to treatment, overal survival and causes of mortality based on Rai stages, CD38, ZAP-70 positivity and absolute monocyte count were analyzed. Results: Therapy was necessary in 21.1%, 57.4%, 88.9%, 88.9% and 100% of patients in Rai stage 0, I, II, III an IV, respectively; in 61.9% and 60.8% of patients exhibiting CD38 and ZAP-70 positivity, respectively; and in 76.9%, 21.2% and 66.2% of patients if the absolute monocyte count was <0.25 G/l, between 0.25–0.75 G/l and >0.75 G/l, respectively. The median time to treatment and the median overal survival were 19.5, 65, and 35.5 months; and 41.5, 65, and 49.5 months according to the three groups of monocyte counts. The relative risk of beginning the therapy was 1.62 (p<0.01) in patients with absolute monocyte count <0.25 G/l or >0.75 G/l, as compared to those with 0.25–0.75 G/l, and the risk of overal survival was 2.41 (p<0.01) in patients with absolute monocyte count lower than 0.25 G/l as compared to those with higher than 0.25 G/l. The relative risks remained significant in Rai 0 patients, too. The leading causes of mortality were infections (41.7%) and the chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (58.3%) in patients with low monocyte count, while tumours (25.9–35.3%) and other events (48.1 and11.8%) occurred in patients with medium or high monocyte counts. Conclusions: Patients with low and high monocyte counts had a shorter time to treatment compared to patients who belonged to the intermediate monocyte count group. The low absolute monocyte count was associated with increased mortality caused by infectious complications and chronic lymphocytic leukaemia. The absolute monocyte count may give additional prognostic information in Rai stage 0, too. Orv. Hetil., 2015, 156(15), 592–597.

Implicit and explicit corrective feedback and feedback exposure conditions

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-48
Author(s):  
Takehiro Iizuka ◽  
Kimi Nakatsukasa
Keyword(s):  
Explicit Knowledge ◽  
Corrective Feedback ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Oral Corrective Feedback ◽  
Post Test ◽  
Picture Description ◽  
Potential Factors ◽  
Implicit And Explicit ◽  
Instructional Settings ◽  
The Impact

This exploratory study examined the impact of implicit and explicit oral corrective feedback (CF) on the development of implicit and explicit knowledge of Japanese locative particles (activity de, movement ni and location ni) for those who directly received CF and those who observed CF in the classroom. Thirty-six college students in a beginning Japanese language course received either recast (implicit), metalinguistic (explicit) or no feedback during an information-gap picture description activity, and completed a timed picture description test (implicit knowledge) and an untimed grammaticality judgement test (explicit knowledge) in a pre-test, immediate post-test and delayed post-test. The results showed that overall there was no significant difference between CF types, and that CF benefited direct and indirect recipients similarly. Potential factors that might influence the effectiveness of CF, such as instructional settings, complexity of target structures and pedagogy styles, are discussed.

Reducing the Social Stigma Associated with Obsessive Compulsive Disorder: A Controlled Trial of an Intervention Program in a Turkish Community Sample

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 101-120
Author(s):  
Ayça Aktaç Gürbüz ◽  
Orçun YORULMAZ ◽  
Gülşah DURNA
Keyword(s):  
Obsessive Compulsive Disorder ◽  
Intervention Program ◽  
Controlled Trial ◽  
Community Sample ◽  
Case Vignette ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Obsessive Compulsive ◽  
Compulsive Disorder ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Impact

Scientific research into the reduction of stigmatization, particularly related to specific problems such as Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder (OCD), is scarce. In the present study, we examine the impact of a video-based antistigma intervention program for OCD in a pretest-posttest control group research. After being randomly assigned to either an intervention (n= 101) or control group (n= 96), the participants reported their attitudes on a hypothetical case vignette before and after OCD vs. Multiple Sclerosis (MS) videos, and again six months later as a follow up assessment. The mixed design analyses for the group comparisons indicated that although there was no significant difference in the measures of the control group, the participants watching the anti-stigma OCD video, in which the focus was psychoeducation and interaction strategies, reported significantly lower scores on social distances and negative beliefs for the case vignettes they read, and this difference was maintained six months later. Then, the present results indicate the effectiveness of our anti-stigma intervention program for OCD. Interventions to reduce stigmatization can also be viewed as effective tools for changing the attitudes of people toward OCD, although further research and applications are needed related to specific disorders if a longlasting impact is to be achieved.

Antecedents And Outcomes Of Qwl Among Employees In Banks

2019 ◽  
Vol 118 (7) ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Geethanjali N ◽  
Parveen Roja M ◽  
Lavanya D
Keyword(s):  
Organizational Climate ◽  
Job Stress ◽  
Work Life ◽  
Working Environment ◽  
Quality Of Work Life ◽  
Quality Of Work ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Service Productivity ◽  
The Impact

Quality of work life is the major factor to be considered in working environment of any organization. The performance of employees and the organization lies on the ability of the employees based on working environment. The QWL leads to better working environment which improves the performance of organization. The present study has made an attempt to find the level of factors causing QWL and the impact of outcome of QWL in banks. Since the profile of the banks may be associated with the level of outcomes of QWL, the present study has made an attempt to examine it with the help of one way analysis of variance and t-test. The included outcomes of QWL are job satisfaction, job stress, organizational climate, organizational commitment, employees retention behaviour, service quality employees and service productivity of employees. The highly associated determinants of QWL and the significant difference among the PUSBs and PRSBs have been noticed. The significantly associating important profiles of the banks regarding the existence of outcome of QWL are identified.

A MODELING SYSTEM FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT, MANAGEMENT AND HEDGING IN COASTAL AREAS

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Alexander Danilov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
System Structure ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Adverse Weather ◽  
The Impact

Every aspect of human operations faces a wide range of risks, some of which can cause serious consequences. By the start of 21st century, mankind has recognized a new class of risks posed by climate change. It is obvious, that the global climate is changing, and will continue to change, in ways that affect the planning and day to day operations of businesses, government agencies and other organizations and institutions. The manifestations of climate change include but not limited to rising sea levels, increasing temperature, flooding, melting polar sea ice, adverse weather events (e.g. heatwaves, drought, and storms) and a rise in related problems (e.g. health and environmental). Assessing and managing climate risks represent one of the most challenging issues of today and for the future. The purpose of the risk modeling system discussed in this paper is to provide a framework and methodology to quantify risks caused by climate change, to facilitate estimates of the impact of climate change on various spheres of human activities and to compare eventual adaptation and risk mitigation strategies. The system integrates both physical climate system and economic models together with knowledge-based subsystem, which can help support proactive risk management. System structure and its main components are considered. Special attention is paid to climate risk assessment, management and hedging in the Arctic coastal areas.

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