scholarly journals Dynamical analysis of coronavirus disease with crowding effect, and vaccination: a study of third strain

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Raza ◽  
Muhammad Rafiq ◽  
Jan Awrejcewicz ◽  
Nauman Ahmed ◽  
Muhammad Mohsin
Keyword(s):  
Infection Rate ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
World Health ◽  
Dynamical Analysis ◽  
Crowding Effect ◽  
Nonlinear Incidence Rate ◽  
The Third ◽  
Rate Of Spread ◽  
The Impact

AbstractCountries affected by the coronavirus epidemic have reported many infected cases and deaths based on world health statistics. The crowding factor, which we named "crowding effects," plays a significant role in spreading the diseases. However, the introduction of vaccines marks a turning point in the rate of spread of coronavirus infections. Modeling both effects is vastly essential as it directly impacts the overall population of the studied region. To determine the peak of the infection curve by considering the third strain, we develop a mathematical model (susceptible–infected–vaccinated–recovered) with reported cases from August 01, 2021, till August 29, 2021. The nonlinear incidence rate with the inclusion of both effects is the best approach to analyze the dynamics. The model's positivity, boundedness, existence, uniqueness, and stability (local and global) are addressed with the help of a reproduction number. In addition, the strength number and second derivative Lyapunov analysis are examined, and the model was found to be asymptotically stable. The suggested parameters efficiently control the active cases of the third strain in Pakistan. It was shown that a systematic vaccination program regulates the infection rate. However, the crowding effect reduces the impact of vaccination. The present results show that the model can be applied to other countries' data to predict the infection rate.

The comprehensive Icf core set for schizophrenia from the perspective of psychiatrists: A content-validity study using the Delphi technique

2017 ◽  
Vol 41 (S1) ◽  
pp. s803-s803
Author(s):  
L. Nuño ◽  
M. Barrios ◽  
E. Rojo ◽  
J. Gomez-Benito ◽  
G. Guilera
Keyword(s):  
Content Validity ◽  
World Health ◽  
International Classification Of Functioning ◽  
Functional Impairments ◽  
Icf Core Set ◽  
The Third ◽  
Core Set ◽  
Competing Interest ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

IntroductionSchizophrenia is a chronic mental illness associated with several functional impairments. There has been an increasing interest in the impact of schizophrenia on functioning. The development of the Comprehensive International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) Core Set for schizophrenia, a shortlist of 97 ICF categories that are relevant for describing functioning and disability of people living with schizophrenia, has derived from this interest.ObjectivesThis study aims to explore the content validity of this core set from the perspective of psychiatrists.MethodsIn a 3-round Delphi survey, psychiatrists experienced in schizophrenia treatment were asked about patients’ problems, resources and environmental factors they treat in patients with schizophrenia.ResultsA total of 352 psychiatrists from 65 countries representing all six World Health Organization regions completed the first round questionnaire. The response rate at the third round was 86%. Answers were linked to 422 ICF categories. Of all these, 109 ICF categories reached consensus (≥ 75% agreement) at the third round. Eighty-seven out of the 97 ICF categories that form the comprehensive ICF core set for schizophrenia were represented in this list. All the comprehensive ICF core set for schizophrenia categories reached consensus except five categories.ConclusionsThe content validity of the comprehensive ICF core set for schizophrenia from the perspective of psychiatrists was largely supported. However, further research is needed including other health professionals (e.g., psychologists, nurses and occupational therapists) to further obtain new content validity evidences.Disclosure of interestThe authors have not supplied their declaration of competing interest.

scholarly journals Are we there yet? An adaptive SIR model for continuous estimation of COVID-19 infection rate and reproduction number in the United States (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Shapiro ◽  
Fazle Karim ◽  
Guido Muscioni ◽  
Abel Saju Augustine
Keyword(s):  
Infection Rate ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Infected Individual ◽  
Local Population ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Continuous Estimation ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND The dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic vary due to local population density and policy measures. When making decisions, policy makers consider an estimate of the effective reproduction number R_t which is the expected number of secondary infections by a single infected individual. OBJECTIVE We propose a simple method for estimating the time-varying infection rate and reproduction number R_t . METHODS We use a sliding window approach applied to a Susceptible-Infectious-Removed model. The infection rate is estimated using the reported cases for a seven-day window to obtain continuous estimation of R_t. The proposed adaptive SIR (aSIR) model was applied to data at the state and county levels. RESULTS The aSIR model showed an excellent fit for the number of reported COVID-19 positive cases, a one-day forecast MAPE was less than 2.6% across all states. However, a seven-day forecast MAPE reached 16.2% and strongly overestimated the number of cases when the reproduction number was high and changing fast. The maximal R_t showed a wide range of 2.0 to 4.5 across all states, with the highest values for New York (4.4) and Michigan (4.5). We demonstrate that the aSIR model can quickly adapt to an increase in the number of tests and associated increase in the reported cases of infections. Our results also suggest that intensive testing may be one of the effective methods of reducing R_t. CONCLUSIONS The aSIR model provides a simple and accurate computational tool to obtain continuous estimation of the reproduction number and evaluate the impact of mitigation measures.

scholarly journals DISSEMINATING INFORMATION ON COVID-19 TO RURAL DWELLERS THROUGH TRANSLATION: A PANACEA TO COVID-19 SPREAD

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fetnani Cecilia
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Information Needs ◽  
World Health ◽  
Personal Hygiene ◽  
Rate Of Spread ◽  
Precautionary Measures ◽  
Linguistic Groups ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Rural Dwellers ◽  
The Impact

The ravaging coronavirus has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). Its rate of spread and mortality is alarming. To worsen matters, there is no cure, no vaccine presently, though clinical trials are going on. The economies of different countries have been shut down; people are being isolated and quarantined. Everybody has been advised to stay home and stay safe. For developing countries like Nigeria, the only safeguard to mitigate the crazy impact of the pandemic is to adhere to the precautionary measures outlined by health experts – physical distancing, wearing of facemasks, use of sanitizers, maintaining personal hygiene and avoiding social gatherings. Information on COVID-19 needs to reach all Nigerians no matter their location or level of literacy if the impact would be mitigated. Nigeria is a multilingual society so the COVID-19 information needs to be available to all linguistic groups especially those in the rural areas. This paper discusses the dissemination of information on COVID-19 to rural dwellers through translation. The focus here is the Igbo in the South Eastern part of Nigeria. The paper examines translation and terminology, then goes on to give the Igbo version of about 117 COVID-19 terms employing different methods of term creation like equivalence, composition, naturalisation, idiomatic expressions and explicative modulation. With these, the rural Igbo speakers can understand what COVID-19 is all about, the inherent dangers and the precautionary measures to take in order to stem the tide and preserve lives. Some recommendations were also made to help the containment of the pandemic.

scholarly journals Control Strategies to Curtail Transmission of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nita H. Shah ◽  
Ankush H. Suthar ◽  
Ekta N. Jayswal
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control Theory ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
World Health ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization declared the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2) a pandemic and a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. As of 29 March 2020, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has affected 199 countries and territories, resulting in 683,536 positive cases and causing 32,139 deaths. The pandemic has the potential to become extremely destructive globally if not treated seriously. In this study, we propose a generalized SEIR model of COVID-19 to study the behaviour of its transmission under different control strategies. In the model, all possible cases of human-to-human transmission are considered and its reproduction number is formulated to analyse the accurate transmission dynamics of the coronavirus outbreak. Optimal control theory is applied to the model to demonstrate the impact of various intervention strategies, including voluntary quarantine, isolation of infected individuals, improving an individual's immunity, and hospitalization. In addition, the effect of control strategies on the model is analysed graphically by simulating the model numerically.

scholarly journals University of the Third Age: the impact of continuing education on the quality of life of the elderly

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 545-555 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chadi Emil Adamo ◽  
Marina Tomaz Esper ◽  
Gabriela Cunha Fialho Cantarelli Bastos ◽  
Ivone Félix de Sousa ◽  
Rogério José de Almeida
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Continuing Education ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Variance Analysis ◽  
World Health ◽  
Third Age ◽  
The Third ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Objective: To verify, among elderly participants of the University of the Third Age (UnATI) of PUC Goiás, Goiania, Brazil, whether quality of life was higher or lower among veteran or first-year participants of the UnATI, and to evaluate if there was a statistically significant difference between the quality of life of men and women or first-years and veterans. Method: An observational case-control study with a quantitative approach was performed with 100 elderly individuals from the UnATI. Fifty first-years and fifty veterans were involved. Two questionnaires were applied, one with sociodemographic data and the other using the World Health Organization Quality of Life - Old (WHOQOL-OLD) scale, which evaluates the quality of life of the elderly. Variance analysis (ANOVA) and multivariate variance analysis (MANOVA) were performed, with p≤0.05 applied to the relevant statistics. Result: The vast majority of the sample were women (90%), aged between 60 and 86 years old (average of 68.37±5.28 years old). The overall quality of life score was 3.68±0.50 (first-years) and 3.87±0.55 (veterans). There was a statistically significant difference in the areas: sensory functioning (veterans =4.28±0.65 and first-years =3.95±0.80) (p=0.025) and past, present and future activity (veterans =4.0±0.72 and first-years =3.59±0.79) (p=0.008). Multivariate variance analysis identified that the overall quality of life scores of both men (veterans =3.15 and first-years =4.21) and women (veterans =3.78 and first-years =3.86), were highest after they became veteran students (p=0.007). Conclusion: Veterans had a higher quality of life than first-years. The continuing education provided by UnATI has a positive impact on the quality of life of the elderly.

scholarly journals Forward Bifurcation with Hysteresis Phenomena from Atherosclerosis Mathematical Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 125-137
Author(s):  
Dipo Aldila ◽  
Arthana Islamilova ◽  
Sarbaz H.A. Khosnaw ◽  
Bevina D. Handari ◽  
Hengki Tasman
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Infection Rate ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Control Program ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Dynamic Complexity ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

Atherosclerosis is a non-communicable disease (NCDs) which appears when the blood vessels in the human body become thick and stiff. The symptoms range from chest pain, sudden numbness in the arms or legs, temporary loss of vision in one eye, or even kidney failure, which may lead to death. Treatment in cases with severe symptoms requires surgery, in which the number of doctors or hospitals is limited in some countries, especially countries with low health levels. This article aims to propose a mathematical model to understand the impact of limited hospital resources on the success of the control program of atherosclerosis spreads. The model was constructed based on a deterministic model, where the hospitalization rate is defined as a time-dependent saturated function concerning the number of infected individuals. The existence and stability of all possible equilibrium points were shown analytically and numerically, along with the basic reproduction number. Our analysis indicates that our model may exhibit various types of bifurcation phenomena, such as forward bifurcation, backward bifurcation, or a forward bifurcation with hysteresis depending on the value of hospitalization saturation parameter and the infection rate for treated infected individuals. These phenomenon triggers a complex and tricky control program of atherosclerosis. A forward bifurcation with hysteresis auses a possible condition of having more than one stable endemic equilibrium when the basic reproduction number is larger than one, but close to one. The more significant value of hospitalization saturation rate or the infection rate for treated infected individuals increases the possibility of the stable endemic equilibrium point even though the disease-free equilibrium is stable. Furthermore, the Pontryagin Maximum Principle was used to characterize the optimal control problem for our model. Based on the results of our analysis, we conclude that atherosclerosis control interventions should prioritize prevention efforts over endemic reduction scenarios to avoid high intervention costs. In addition, the government also needs to pay great attention to the availability of hospital services for this disease to avoid the dynamic complexity of the spread of atherosclerosis in the field.

scholarly journals Control Strategies to Curtail Transmission of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nita H. Shah ◽  
Ankush H. Suthar ◽  
Ekta N. Jayswal
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control Theory ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
World Health ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

AbstractRecently the World Health Organization has declared the outbreak of a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2) as a pandemic, and declared it as Public Health Emergency of International Concern. More than 683,536 positive cases and 32,139 deaths caused by novel corona virus 2019 (COVID-19) has affected 199 countries and territories. This pandemic can transform into an extremely destructive form if we still do not take it seriously. In the present study, we propose a generalized SEIR model of COVID-19 to study the behaviour of its transmission under different control strategies. In the model, all possible cases of human to human transmission are taken care and its reproduction number is formulated to analyse accurate transmission dynamics of the coronavirus outbreak. Optimal control theory is applied in the model to pretend the impact of various intervention strategies, including voluntary quarantine, isolation of infected individuals, improving an individual’s immunity and hospitalisation. Also, effect of the control strategies on model is analysed graphically by simulating the model numerically.

scholarly journals Study of the Dependence of Effective Reproduction Number of COVID-19 on the Temperature and Humidity: A Case Study with the Indian States

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manoj Mandal ◽  
Subhradeep Patra ◽  
Sabyasachi Pal ◽  
Suman Acharya ◽  
Mangal Hazra
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
World Health ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Negative Slope ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Linear Regression Method ◽  
Indian States ◽  
Temperature And Humidity ◽  
The Impact

Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) started in Wuhan province of China in November 2019 and within a short time, it was declared as a worldwide pandemic by World Health Organisation due to very fast worldwide spread of the virus. In the absence of any vaccine, various mitigation measures were used. In the past, the effect of temperature and humidity on the spread of the virus was studied for a very early phase of the data with mixed results. We are studying the impact of COVID-19 on the maximum temperature and relative humidity of a place using Indian states as test cases for SIR, SIRD, and SEIR models. We used a linear regression method to look for any dependency between effective reproduction number with maximum temperature and relative humidity. Most of the states show a correlation with the negative slope between the effective reproduction number with the maximum temperature and the relative humidity. It indicates that the effective reproduction number goes down as maximum temperature or relative humidity rise. But, the regression coefficient R2 is low for these correlations which means that the correlation is not strong.

Social and political dimension of stigmatization: The development of Natasha and Maria images for immigrants in Istanbul

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 159-168
Author(s):  
Bayram Unal
Keyword(s):  
Public Perception ◽  
Daily Life ◽  
Legal Framework ◽  
State Law ◽  
Migrant Women ◽  
Political Dimension ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Official Discourse ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Impact

This study aims at understanding how the perceptions about migrants have been created and transferred into daily life as a stigmatization by means of public perception, media and state law implementations.  The focus would be briefly what kind of consequences these perceptions and stigmatization might lead. First section will examine the background of migration to Turkey briefly and make a summary of migration towards Turkey by 90s. Second section will briefly evaluate the preferential legal framework, which constitutes the base for official discourse differentiating the migrants and implementations of security forces that can be described as discriminatory. The third section deals with the impact of perceptions influential in both formation and reproduction of inclusive and exclusive practices towards migrant women. Additionally, impact of public perception in classifying the migrants and migratory processes would be dealt in this section.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document