scholarly journals Effortful Bayesian updating: A pupil-dilation study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Alós-Ferrer ◽  
Alexander Jaudas ◽  
Alexander Ritschel
Keyword(s):  
Error Rates ◽  
Cognitive Effort ◽  
Pupil Dilation ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Bayes Rule ◽  
Monetary Incentives ◽  
Rational Decision ◽  
Past Performance ◽  
Belief Updating ◽  
New Information

AbstractWhen confronted with new information, rational decision makers should update their beliefs through Bayes’ rule. In economics, however, new information often includes win-loss feedback (profits vs. losses, success vs. failure, upticks vs. downticks). Previous research using a well-established belief-updating paradigm shows that, in this case, reinforcement learning (focusing on past performance) creates high error rates, and increasing monetary incentives fails to elicit higher performance. But do incentives fail to increase effort, or rather does effort fail to increase performance? We use pupil dilation to show that higher incentives do result in increased cognitive effort, but the latter fails to translate into increased performance in this paradigm. The failure amounts to a “reinforcement paradox:” increasing incentives makes win-loss cues more salient, and hence effort is often misallocated in the form of an increased reliance on reinforcement processes. Our study also serves as an example of how pupil-dilation measurements can inform economics.

scholarly journals Application of Combinatorial Techniques to the Ghanaian Board Game Zaminamina Draft

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 159-175
Author(s):  
Elvis Kobina Donkoh ◽  
Rebecca Davis ◽  
Emmanuel D.J Owusu-Ansah ◽  
Emmanuel A. Antwi ◽  
Michael Mensah
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Board Game ◽  
Rational Decision ◽  
Way Of Life ◽  
Mathematical Technique ◽  
Contemporary Culture ◽  
Conflict And Cooperation ◽  
The Matrix

Games happen to be a part of our contemporary culture and way of life. Often mathematical models of conflict and cooperation between intelligent rational decision-makers are studied in these games. Example is the African board game ’Zaminamina draft’ which is often guided by combinatorial strategies and techniques for winning. In this paper we deduce an intelligent mathematical technique for playing a winning game. Two different starting strategies were formulated; center starting and edge or vertex starting. The results were distorted into a 3x3 matrix and elementary row operations were performed to establish all possible wins. MatLab was used to distort the matrix to determine the diagonal wins. A program was written using python in artificial intelligence (AI) to help in playing optimally

scholarly journals Priming Younger and Older Adults’ Sentence Comprehension: Insights from Dynamic Emotional Facial Expressions and Pupil Size Measures

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 129-148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Nella Carminati ◽  
Pia Knoeferle
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Sentence Processing ◽  
Pupil Size ◽  
Sentence Comprehension ◽  
Cognitive Effort ◽  
Pupil Dilation ◽  
Emotional Facial Expressions ◽  
Visual World ◽  
Positivity Effect ◽  
Positive Valence

Background: Prior visual-world research has demonstrated that emotional priming of spoken sentence processing is rapidly modulated by age. Older and younger participants saw two photographs of a positive and of a negative event side-by-side and listened to a spoken sentence about one of these events. Older adults’ fixations to the mentioned (positive) event were enhanced when the still photograph of a previously-inspected positive-valence speaker face was (vs. wasn’t) emotionally congruent with the event/sentence. By contrast, the younger adults exhibited such an enhancement with negative stimuli only. Objective: The first aim of the current study was to assess the replicability of these findings with dynamic face stimuli (unfolding from neutral to happy or sad). A second goal was to assess a key prediction made by socio-emotional selectivity theory, viz. that the positivity effect (a preference for positive information) displayed by older adults involves cognitive effort. Method: We conducted an eye-tracking visual-world experiment. Results: Most priming and age effects, including the positivity effects, replicated. However, against our expectations, the positive gaze preference in older adults did not co-vary with a standard measure of cognitive effort - increased pupil dilation. Instead, pupil size was significantly bigger when (both younger and older) adults processed negative than positive stimuli. Conclusion: These findings are in line with previous research on the relationship between positive gaze preferences and pupil dilation. We discuss both theoretical and methodological implications of these results.

scholarly journals Fuzzy-based Description of Computational Complexity of Central Nervous Systems

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 57-66
Author(s):  
Piotr Prokopowicz ◽  
Dariusz Mikołajewski ◽  
Krzysztof Tyburek ◽  
Piotr Kotlarz
Keyword(s):  
Applied Sciences ◽  
Complex Analysis ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Valuable Insight ◽  
Subjective Beliefs ◽  
Uncertainty Model ◽  
New Information ◽  
Central Nervous Systems ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Point Of Departure

Computational intelligence algorithms are currently capable of dealing with simple cognitive processes, but still remain inefficient compared with the human brain’s ability to learn from few exemplars or to analyze problems that have not been defined in an explicit manner. Generalization and decision-making processes typically require an uncertainty model that is applied to the decision options while relying on the probability approach. Thus, models of such cognitive functions usually interact with reinforcement-based learning to simplify complex problems. Decision-makers are needed to choose from the decision options that are available, in order to ensure that the decision-makers’ choices are rational. They maximize the subjective overall utility expected, given by the outcomes in different states and weighted with subjective beliefs about the occurrence of those states. Beliefs are captured by probabilities and new information is incorporated using the Bayes’ law. Fuzzy-based models described in this paper propose a different – they may serve as a point of departure for a family of novel methods enabling more effective and neurobiologically reliable brain simulation that is based on fuzzy logic techniques and that turns out to be useful in both basic and applied sciences. The approach presented provides a valuable insight into understanding the aforementioned processes, doing that in a descriptive, fuzzy-based manner, without presenting a complex analysis

An Experimental Study of Multidimensional Hierarchical Accounting Data: Drill-Down Paths Can Influence Economic Decisions

2007 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 69-86 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacob Peng ◽  
Ralph E. Viator ◽  
Steve Buchheit
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Performance Outcomes ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Monetary Incentives ◽  
Aggregate Level ◽  
Cognitive Fit ◽  
Accounting Data ◽  
Economic Decisions ◽  
Level Performance ◽  
Drill Down

Although decision support systems utilizing multidimensional hierarchical data have rightfully been praised for their ability to enhance decision making, we find that the drill-down path offered by such systems can influence economic decisions—sometimes in a suboptimal fashion. Our experimental investigation offers profitmaximizing monetary incentives to decision makers who navigate a simple multidimensional system. Specifically, decision makers view three possible drill-down paths that each contain three lower-level outcomes of subunit performance (i.e., only nine possible outcomes exist). We manipulate the predictive ability of aggregate data by changing the system-offered drill-down path. In our experiment, we keep all numeric performance outcomes constant; however, half of the time, the optimal outcome lies within the best aggregate level performer and half the time it does not. We find economic decisions are significantly worse when aggregate level performance fails to predict the optimal lower-level performance outcome. We also find that reducing decision effort via proper cognitive fit improves economic decisions.

How the positivity of new information influences belief updating in depression - The more, the better?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tobias Kube ◽  
Lukas Kirchner ◽  
Gunnar Lemmer ◽  
Julia Glombiewski
Keyword(s):  
Depressive Symptoms ◽  
Traditional Learning ◽  
False Feedback ◽  
Prior Beliefs ◽  
Belief Updating ◽  
Positive Information ◽  
New Information ◽  
New Learning ◽  
Interaction Task ◽  
Disconfirming Information

Aberrant belief updating has been linked to psychopathology, e.g., depressive symptoms. While previous research used to treat belief-confirming vs. -disconfirming information as binary concepts, the present research varied the extent to which new information deviates from prior beliefs and examined its influence on belief updating. In a false feedback task (Study 1; N = 379) and a social interaction task (Study 2; N = 292), participants received slightly positive, moderately positive or extremely positive information in relation to their prior beliefs. In both studies, new information was deemed most reliable if it was moderately positive. Yet, differences in the positivity of new information had only small effects on belief updating. In Study 1, depressive symptoms were related to difficulties in generalizing positive new learning experiences. The findings suggest that, contrary to traditional learning models, the larger the differences between prior beliefs and new information, the more beliefs are not updated.

Provide Numbers but Reduce Cognitive Effort

2020 ◽  
pp. 196-214
Author(s):  
Ellen Peters
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Effort ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Plain Language ◽  
Visual Displays ◽  
Numeric Information ◽  
Numeric Data

This chapter, “Provide Numbers but Reduce Cognitive Effort,” challenges the notion that numbers mislead people and should be avoided. This chapter recommends instead that communicators provide numeric information but reduce how much effort is required from consumers and patients to use it. In particular, the chapter discusses five ways that providing numeric information is useful for decision makers. Then it summarizes evidence-based methods to present such numeric data to decrease effort and increase numeric comprehension and use. The methods include providing fewer options and less information, presenting absolute risks, keeping denominators constant, doing any needed math operations for them, and using appropriate visual displays. Concrete examples are explained in plain language.

scholarly journals First- and Second-language Phonological Representations in the Mental Lexicon

2006 ◽  
Vol 18 (8) ◽  
pp. 1277-1291 ◽  
Author(s):  
Núria Sebastian-Gallés ◽  
Antoni Rodríguez-Fornells ◽  
Ruth de Diego-Balaguer ◽  
Begoña Díaz
Keyword(s):  
Second Language ◽  
Brain Activity ◽  
First Language ◽  
Great Difficulty ◽  
Error Rates ◽  
Decision Task ◽  
Phonological Representations ◽  
Error Related Negativity ◽  
New Information ◽  
The Brain

Performance-based studies on the psychological nature of linguistic competence can conceal significant differences in the brain processes that underlie native versus nonnative knowledge of language. Here we report results from the brain activity of very proficient early bilinguals making a lexical decision task that illustrates this point. Two groups of Spanish-Catalan early bilinguals (Spanish-dominant and Catalan-dominant) were asked to decide whether a given form was a Catalan word or not. The nonwords were based on real words, with one vowel changed. In the experimental stimuli, the vowel change involved a Catalan-specific contrast that previous research had shown to be difficult for Spanish natives to perceive. In the control stimuli, the vowel switch involved contrasts common to Spanish and Catalan. The results indicated that the groups of bilinguals did not differ in their behavioral and event-related brain potential measurements for the control stimuli; both groups made very few errors and showed a larger N400 component for control nonwords than for control words. However, significant differences were observed for the experimental stimuli across groups: Specifically, Spanish-dominant bilinguals showed great difficulty in rejecting experimental nonwords. Indeed, these participants not only showed very high error rates for these stimuli, but also did not show an error-related negativity effect in their erroneous nonword decisions. However, both groups of bilinguals showed a larger correct-related negativity when making correct decisions about the experimental nonwords. The results suggest that although some aspects of a second language system may show a remarkable lack of plasticity (like the acquisition of some foreign contrasts), first-language representations seem to be more dynamic in their capacity of adapting and incorporating new information.

scholarly journals Proactive interference in aging: A model-based study

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 130-138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim Archambeau ◽  
Birte Forstmann ◽  
Leendert Van Maanen ◽  
Wim Gevers
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Proactive Interference ◽  
Response Times ◽  
Error Rates ◽  
Motor Execution ◽  
Memory Decline ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
New Information ◽  
Processing Mechanisms ◽  
Diffusion Decision Model

AbstractProactive interference occurs when previously learned information interrupts the storage or retrieval of new information. Congruent with previous reports, traditional analyses dealing with response times and error rates separately have indicated an increase in sensitivity to proactive interference in older adults. We reanalyzed the same data using diffusion decision model (DDM). Such models enable a more fine-grained interpretation concerning the latent processing mechanisms underlying performance. Now a different picture emerged. The DDM results showed that older adults needed more evidence than young adults before responding. The results also clearly indicated that peripheral processes (encoding time and motor execution), as well as recognition memory, decline with age. However, the drift rates, reflecting proactive interference, were similar, suggesting—contrary to earlier reports—that the inhibitory processes observed with this paradigm remain intact in older adults.

Learning Preferences in a Spatial Multiple Criteria Decision Approach: An Application in Public Security Planning

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (04) ◽  
pp. 1403-1432 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ciro Figueiredo ◽  
Caroline Mota
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Effort ◽  
Learning Preferences ◽  
Public Security ◽  
Small Subset ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
New Information ◽  
Public Areas ◽  
Security Planning ◽  
The Individual

This study presents a model to identify and classify vulnerable places regarding violence in public areas. The model considers multiple objectives and multiple viewpoints by using a graphical visualization for exploring vulnerability. The methodology is supported by a Dominance-based rough set approach in conjunction with preference learning and Geographic Information Systems, and requires the use of decision-makers’ (DMs’) previous knowledge for holistic assessment to get individual results. We considered an original approach for aggregating those individual results to obtain a recommendation from the final output. The preferences are assessed interactively to decrease the cognitive effort of each DM, starting from a small subset of holistic evaluations and expanding the process by incrementing new information in each stage of the model. We also assigned indicators to identify the quality of the results, participation in the individual preferences, and to avoid inconsistencies. We used the model to identify areas that merit more resources to combat crime and employed several criteria that assess types and levels of violence. These results may help policy-makers and planners to draw up and refine public policy interventions in the public security context.

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