scholarly journals Influenza-like illness prediction using a long short-term memory deep learning model with multiple open data sources

2020 ◽  
Vol 76 (12) ◽  
pp. 9303-9329 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao-Tung Yang ◽  
Yuan-An Chen ◽  
Yu-Wei Chan ◽  
Chia-Lin Lee ◽  
Yu-Tse Tsan ◽  
...  

Abstract The influenza problem has always been an important global issue. It not only affects people’s health problems but is also an essential topic of governments and health care facilities. Early prediction and response is the most effective control method for flu epidemics. It can effectively predict the influenza-like illness morbidity, and provide reliable information to the relevant facilities. For social facilities, it is possible to strengthen epidemic prevention and care for highly sick groups. It can also be used as a reminder for the public. This study collects information on the influenza-like illness emergency department visits to the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control, and the PM2.5 open-source data from the Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration's air quality monitoring network. By using deep learning techniques, the relevance of short-term estimates and the outbreak calculation method can be determined. The techniques are published by the WHO to determine whether the influenza-like illness situation is still in a stage of reasonable control. Finally, historical data and future forecasted data are integrated on the web page for visual presentation, to show the actual regional air quality situation and influenza-like illness data and to predict whether there is an outbreak of influenza in the region.

2016 ◽  
Vol 39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary C. Potter

AbstractRapid serial visual presentation (RSVP) of words or pictured scenes provides evidence for a large-capacity conceptual short-term memory (CSTM) that momentarily provides rich associated material from long-term memory, permitting rapid chunking (Potter 1993; 2009; 2012). In perception of scenes as well as language comprehension, we make use of knowledge that briefly exceeds the supposed limits of working memory.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 2742
Author(s):  
Fatih Ünal ◽  
Abdulaziz Almalaq ◽  
Sami Ekici

Short-term load forecasting models play a critical role in distribution companies in making effective decisions in their planning and scheduling for production and load balancing. Unlike aggregated load forecasting at the distribution level or substations, forecasting load profiles of many end-users at the customer-level, thanks to smart meters, is a complicated problem due to the high variability and uncertainty of load consumptions as well as customer privacy issues. In terms of customers’ short-term load forecasting, these models include a high level of nonlinearity between input data and output predictions, demanding more robustness, higher prediction accuracy, and generalizability. In this paper, we develop an advanced preprocessing technique coupled with a hybrid sequential learning-based energy forecasting model that employs a convolution neural network (CNN) and bidirectional long short-term memory (BLSTM) within a unified framework for accurate energy consumption prediction. The energy consumption outliers and feature clustering are extracted at the advanced preprocessing stage. The novel hybrid deep learning approach based on data features coding and decoding is implemented in the prediction stage. The proposed approach is tested and validated using real-world datasets in Turkey, and the results outperformed the traditional prediction models compared in this paper.


Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 924
Author(s):  
Moslem Imani ◽  
Hoda Fakour ◽  
Wen-Hau Lan ◽  
Huan-Chin Kao ◽  
Chi Ming Lee ◽  
...  

Despite the great significance of precisely forecasting the wind speed for development of the new and clean energy technology and stable grid operators, the stochasticity of wind speed makes the prediction a complex and challenging task. For improving the security and economic performance of power grids, accurate short-term wind power forecasting is crucial. In this paper, a deep learning model (Long Short-term Memory (LSTM)) has been proposed for wind speed prediction. Knowing that wind speed time series is nonlinear stochastic, the mutual information (MI) approach was used to find the best subset from the data by maximizing the joint MI between subset and target output. To enhance the accuracy and reduce input characteristics and data uncertainties, rough set and interval type-2 fuzzy set theory are combined in the proposed deep learning model. Wind speed data from an international airport station in the southern coast of Iran Bandar-Abbas City was used as the original input dataset for the optimized deep learning model. Based on the statistical results, the rough set LSTM (RST-LSTM) model showed better prediction accuracy than fuzzy and original LSTM, as well as traditional neural networks, with the lowest error for training and testing datasets in different time horizons. The suggested model can support the optimization of the control approach and the smooth procedure of power system. The results confirm the superior capabilities of deep learning techniques for wind speed forecasting, which could also inspire new applications in meteorology assessment.


Author(s):  
Claire Brenner ◽  
Jonathan Frame ◽  
Grey Nearing ◽  
Karsten Schulz

ZusammenfassungDie Verdunstung ist ein entscheidender Prozess im globalen Wasser‑, Energie- sowie Kohlenstoffkreislauf. Daten zur räumlich-zeitlichen Dynamik der Verdunstung sind daher von großer Bedeutung für Klimamodellierungen, zur Abschätzung der Auswirkungen der Klimakrise sowie nicht zuletzt für die Landwirtschaft.In dieser Arbeit wenden wir zwei Machine- und Deep Learning-Methoden für die Vorhersage der Verdunstung mit täglicher und halbstündlicher Auflösung für Standorte des FLUXNET-Datensatzes an. Das Long Short-Term Memory Netzwerk ist ein rekurrentes neuronales Netzwerk, welchen explizit Speichereffekte berücksichtigt und Zeitreihen der Eingangsgrößen analysiert (entsprechend physikalisch-basierten Wasserbilanzmodellen). Dem gegenüber gestellt werden Modellierungen mit XGBoost, einer Entscheidungsbaum-Methode, die in diesem Fall nur Informationen für den zu bestimmenden Zeitschritt erhält (entsprechend physikalisch-basierten Energiebilanzmodellen). Durch diesen Vergleich der beiden Modellansätze soll untersucht werden, inwieweit sich durch die Berücksichtigung von Speichereffekten Vorteile für die Modellierung ergeben.Die Analysen zeigen, dass beide Modellansätze gute Ergebnisse erzielen und im Vergleich zu einem ausgewerteten Referenzdatensatz eine höhere Modellgüte aufweisen. Vergleicht man beide Modelle, weist das LSTM im Mittel über alle 153 untersuchten Standorte eine bessere Übereinstimmung mit den Beobachtungen auf. Allerdings zeigt sich eine Abhängigkeit der Güte der Verdunstungsvorhersage von der Vegetationsklasse des Standorts; vor allem wärmere, trockene Standorte mit kurzer Vegetation werden durch das LSTM besser repräsentiert, wohingegen beispielsweise in Feuchtgebieten XGBoost eine bessere Übereinstimmung mit den Beobachtung liefert. Die Relevanz von Speichereffekten scheint daher zwischen Ökosystemen und Standorten zu variieren.Die präsentierten Ergebnisse unterstreichen das Potenzial von Methoden der künstlichen Intelligenz für die Beschreibung der Verdunstung.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 1953
Author(s):  
Seyed Majid Azimi ◽  
Maximilian Kraus ◽  
Reza Bahmanyar ◽  
Peter Reinartz

In this paper, we address various challenges in multi-pedestrian and vehicle tracking in high-resolution aerial imagery by intensive evaluation of a number of traditional and Deep Learning based Single- and Multi-Object Tracking methods. We also describe our proposed Deep Learning based Multi-Object Tracking method AerialMPTNet that fuses appearance, temporal, and graphical information using a Siamese Neural Network, a Long Short-Term Memory, and a Graph Convolutional Neural Network module for more accurate and stable tracking. Moreover, we investigate the influence of the Squeeze-and-Excitation layers and Online Hard Example Mining on the performance of AerialMPTNet. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to use these two for regression-based Multi-Object Tracking. Additionally, we studied and compared the L1 and Huber loss functions. In our experiments, we extensively evaluate AerialMPTNet on three aerial Multi-Object Tracking datasets, namely AerialMPT and KIT AIS pedestrian and vehicle datasets. Qualitative and quantitative results show that AerialMPTNet outperforms all previous methods for the pedestrian datasets and achieves competitive results for the vehicle dataset. In addition, Long Short-Term Memory and Graph Convolutional Neural Network modules enhance the tracking performance. Moreover, using Squeeze-and-Excitation and Online Hard Example Mining significantly helps for some cases while degrades the results for other cases. In addition, according to the results, L1 yields better results with respect to Huber loss for most of the scenarios. The presented results provide a deep insight into challenges and opportunities of the aerial Multi-Object Tracking domain, paving the way for future research.


2021 ◽  
Vol 366 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhichao Wen ◽  
Shuhui Li ◽  
Lihua Li ◽  
Bowen Wu ◽  
Jianqiang Fu

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