scholarly journals Using Climate Factors to Estimate Flood Economic Loss Risk

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xinjia Hu ◽  
Ming Wang ◽  
Kai Liu ◽  
Daoyi Gong ◽  
Holger Kantz
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Hunan Province ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Climate Factors ◽  
Precipitation Patterns ◽  
Cross Correlation Analysis

AbstractEstimation of economic loss is essential for stakeholders to manage flood risk. Most flooding events are closely related to extreme precipitation, which is influenced by large-scale climate factors. Considering the lagged influence of climate factors, we developed a flood-risk assessment framework and used Hunan Province in China as an example to illustrate the risk assessment process. The main patterns of precipitation—as a connection between climate factors and flood economic losses—were extracted by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. We identified the correlative climate factors through cross-correlation analysis and established a multiple stepwise linear regression model to forecast future precipitation patterns. Risk assessment was done based on the main precipitation patterns. Because the economic dataset is limited, a Monte Carlo simulation was applied to simulate 1000-year flood loss events under each precipitation regime (rainy, dry, normal years) to obtain aggregate exceedance probability (AEP) and occurrence exceedance probability (OEP) curves. We found that precipitation has a strong influence on economic loss risk, with the highest risk in rainy years. Regional economic development imbalances are the potential reason for the varying economic loss risks in different regions of Hunan Province. As the climate indices with at least several months prediction lead time are strong indicators in predicting precipitation, the framework we developed can estimate economic loss risk several months in advance.

scholarly journals Research Design of Mobile Based Decision Support for Early Flood Warning System

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (17) ◽  
pp. 130
Author(s):  
Mohd Faizal Omar ◽  
Mohd Nasrun Mohd Nawi ◽  
Jastini Mohd Jamil ◽  
Ani Munirah Mohamad ◽  
Saslina Kamaruddin
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Research Design ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Architectural Design ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Flood Risk Assessment

Flooding has become one of the most rapidly growing types of natural disaster that has spread around the globe. It is is one of the major natural hazards in many countries and mostly affected in the low-lying or flood prone areas. In order to minimize loss of life and economic losses, a detailed and comprehensive decision making tool is necessary for both flood control planning and emergency service operations. In this paper, we demonstrate our research design for mobile based decision support of Flood Early Warning System (FEWS). We outlined four research objectives. Firstly, critical criteria for flood risk assessment will be identified and the second step will involve develop measurement model for relative flood risk using Geographic Information System (GIS), Multi Attribute Decision Making (MADM) and data mining technique. In the third objectives, the holistic architectural design is develop by incorporating the communication technology and other related ICT requirements for the mobile decision support. The fourth objective is to validate the mathematical model and architectural design. Case study approach is chosen in order to understand the flood event and validate the decision support model. Following well-defined procedures, flood maps were drawn based on the data collected from expert responses to a questionnaire, the field survey, satellite images, and documents from flood management agencies. It is anticipates that by integrating of mathematical model, GIS and mobile application in flood risk assessment could provide useful detailed information for flood risk management, evacuation, communication. The decision support design from this study is perhaps to improve the warning system and contribute to reduction of casualties.

scholarly journals Flood Risk Assessment for the Long-Term Strategic Planning Considering the Placement of Industrial Parks in Slovakia

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 4144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henrich Grežo ◽  
Matej Močko ◽  
Martin Izsóff ◽  
Gréta Vrbičanová ◽  
František Petrovič ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Flow Simulation ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Historical Maps ◽  
Flood Risk Assessment ◽  
Industrial Parks ◽  
Flood Maps

The intention of the article is to demonstrate how data from historical maps might be applied in the process of flood risk assessment in peri-urban zones located in floodplains and be complementary datasets to the national flood maps. The research took place in two industrial parks near the rivers Žitava and Nitra in the town of Vráble (the oldest industrial park in Slovakia) and the city of Nitra (one of the largest industrial parks in Slovakia, which is still under construction concerning the Jaguar Land Rover facility). The historical maps from the latter half of the 18th and 19th centuries and from the 1950s of the 20th century, as well as the field data on floods gained with the GNSSS receiver in 2010 and the Q100 flood line of the national flood maps (2017), were superposed in geographic information systems. The flood map consists of water flow simulation by a mathematical hydrodynamic model which is valid only for the current watercourse. The comparison of historical datasets with current data indicated various transformations and shifts of the riverbanks over the last 250 years. The results proved that the industrial parks were built up on traditionally and extensively used meadows and pastures through which branched rivers flowed in the past. Recent industrial constructions intensified the use of both territories and led to the modifications of riverbeds and shortening of the watercourse length. Consequently, the river flow energy increased, and floods occurred during torrential events in 2010. If historical maps were respected in the creation of the flood maps, the planned construction of industrial parks in floodplains could be limited or forbidden in the spatial planning documentation. This study confirmed that the flood modelling using the Q100 flood lines does not provide sufficient arguments for investment development groups, and flood maps might be supplied with the data derived from historical maps. The proposed methodology represents a simple, low cost, and effective way of identifying possible flood-prone areas and preventing economic losses and other damages.

Prediction of Power Plant Exposure to Economic Losses Through a Property Risk Assessment Methodology

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. J. Orme ◽  
M. Venturini
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Power Plant ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Assessment Procedure ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Maximum Loss ◽  
Probable Maximum Loss

In this paper, a procedure for Risk Assessment, which makes use of two risk indices (PML - Probable Maximum Loss and MFL - Maximum Foreseeable Loss) is applied to power plants to evaluate potential economic losses due to risk exposure for two different loss scenarios (probable and worst-case). The paper is mainly focused on Property Insurance aspects, though Boiler and Machinery Insurance and business interruption are also addressed. First, the procedure is applied to provide a prediction of probable and maximum loss as a function of power output. The results allow an estimate of whether the adoption of risk assessment procedures and devices allows an actual payback for plant owners. Second, the economic loss predicted through the risk assessment procedure is compared against real power plant loss values, taken from published data.

scholarly journals An Integrated Approach for the Simulation Modeling and Risk Assessment of Coastal Flooding

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 2076
Author(s):  
Yazhi Zheng ◽  
Hai Sun
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Simulation Modeling ◽  
River Estuary ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Actual Case ◽  
Ca Model

The evaluation of storm surge flood risk is vital to disaster management and planning at national, regional and local levels, particularly in coastal areas that are affected more severely by storm surges. The purpose of this paper is to propose a new method that includes two modules for the simulation modeling and risk assessment of coastal flooding. One is a hydrodynamic module for simulating the process of the flood inundation coastal inundation arising from storm surge, which is based on a cellular automata (CA) model. The other is a risk assessment module for quantitatively estimating the economic loss by using the inundation data and land use data. The coastal areas of Pearl River estuary in China were taken as a case study. Simulation results are compared to experimental results from MIKE 21 and depth data from a social-media-based dataset, which demonstrates the effectiveness of the CA model. By analyzing flood risk, the flood area and the direct economic losses predicted are close to the actual case incurred, further demonstrating the computational reliability of the proposed method. Additionally, an automatic risk assessment platform is designed by integrating the two modules in a Geographic Information System (GIS) framework, facilitating a more efficient and faster simulation of coastal flooding. The platform can provide the governments as well as citizens of coastal areas with user-friendly, real-time graphics for coastal flood disaster preparation, warning, response and recovery.

Current and future flood risk assessment in the Danube region

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai Schröter ◽  
Michel Wortmann ◽  
Stefan Lüdtke ◽  
Ben Hayes ◽  
Martin Drews ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Flood Risk Assessment ◽  
Danube Catchment ◽  
The Future ◽  
Danube Region

<p>Severe hydro-meteorological hazards have been increasing during recent decades and, as a consequence of global change, more frequent and intense events are expected in the future. Climate informed planning of adaptation actions needs both consistent and reliable information about future risks and associated uncertainties, and appropriate tools to support comprehensive risk assessment and management. <br>The Future Danube Model (FDM) is a multi-hazard and risk model suite for the Danube region which provides climate information related to perils such as heavy precipitation, heatwaves, floods and droughts under recent and future climate conditions. FDM has a modular structure with exchangeable components for climate input, hydrology, inundation, risk, adaptation and visualisation. FDM is implemented within the open-source OASIS Loss Modelling Framework, which defines a standard for estimating ground-up loss and financial damage of disaster events or event scenarios. <br>The OASIS lmf implementation of the FDM is showcased for the current and future fluvial flood risk assessment in the Danube catchment. We generate stochastic inundation event sets for current and future climate in the Danube region using the output of several EURO-CORDEX models as climate input. One event set represents 10,000 years of daily climate data for a given climate model, period and representative concentration pathway. With this input, we conduct long term continuous simulations of flood processes using a coupled semi-distributed hydrological and a 1.5D hydraulic model for fluvial floods. Flood losses to residential building are estimated using a probabilistic multi-variable vulnerability model. Effects of adaptation actions are exemplified by scenarios of private precaution. Changes in risk are illustrated with exceedance probability curves for different event sets representing current and future climate on different spatial aggregation levels which are of interest for adaptation planning.</p>

scholarly journals Wind and Rain Losses for Metal-clad Contemporary Houses Subjected to Non-cyclonic Windstorms

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hao Qin
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Damage Assessment ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Wind Damage ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Extreme Wind ◽  
Loss Modelling ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Extreme Winds

Severe windstorms cause millions in losses annually for housing in Southeast Australia that has more than half of Australia’s population. The risk assessment for housing in these non-cyclonic regions is the key to assessing the cost-effectiveness of relevant wind mitigation measures to reduce the economic losses. This study develops a probabilistic risk assessment framework to evaluate the wind and rain losses for Australian contemporary houses subjected to non-cyclonic windstorms, which integrates the hazard modelling for extreme wind and associated rainfall, reliability-based wind damage assessment, rainwater intrusion evaluation and economic loss modelling. The risk analysis was conducted for metal-clad contemporary houses in Brisbane and Melbourne. It was found that damage to building interior and contents 18 caused by rainwater intrusion associated with extreme winds is the major contributor to the annual expected economic losses, and houses in Brisbane are generally subjected to higher losses than houses in Melbourne.

scholarly journals Hydrodynamic Modelling of Floods and Estimating Socio-economic Impacts of Floods in Ugandan River Malaba Sub-catchment

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ambrose Mubialiwo ◽  
Adane Abebe ◽  
Nafyad Serre Kawo ◽  
Job Ekolu ◽  
Saralees Nadarajah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Percentage Increase ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Analysis System ◽  
Extreme Flow

AbstractRiver Malaba sub-catchment tends to experience dramatic flooding events, with several socio-economic impacts to the nearby communities, such as loss of lives and destructions of physical infrastructure. Analysis of spatiotemporal extents to which settlements, crops and physical infrastructures tend to be inundated are vital for predictive planning of risk-based adaptation measures. This paper presents a case study on flood risk assessment for Ugandan River Malaba sub-catchment. We applied the two-dimensional Hydraulic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (2D HEC-RAS) for modelling of flooding extents. We considered extreme flow quantiles, lower and upper quantiles corresponding to the 95% confidence interval limits aimed at determining uncertainties in the flooding extents. Spatial extents of inundation on human settlement, land cover and infrastructure were analysed with respect to return periods of extreme flow quantiles. Finally, we estimated economic loss on infrastructure due to flooding. Results from the 2D HEC-RAS model were satisfactorily comparable with the results of observations. Amongst the land use types, cropland exhibited the highest vulnerability with at least 10,234.8 hectare (ha) susceptible to flooding event of 100-year return period (YRP). Inundated built-up land-use exhibited the highest vulnerability percentage increase (90%) between 2- and 100-YRP. In US Dollar, about US$ 33 million and US$ 39 million losses are estimated at 2- and 100-YRP, respectively, due to inundated rice gardens and these indicate a looming high risk of household food insecurity and poverty. Several infrastructure including 15 academic institutions, 12 health facilities, 32 worshiping places remain annually vulnerable to flooding. At least 6 km and 7 km of road network are also susceptible to flooding under extreme flows of return periods 2 and 100 years, respectively. Churches exhibited the highest economic losses of US$ 855,065 and US$ 1,623,832 at 2-YRP and 100-YRP, respectively. This study findings are relevant for planning the development of sustainable flood risk adaptation pathways given the established destructions within the sub-catchment due to flooding.

scholarly journals A flood risk curve development for inundation disaster considering spatio-temporal rainfall distribution

2015 ◽  
Vol 370 ◽  
pp. 57-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Tanaka ◽  
Y. Tachikawa ◽  
K. Yorozu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Disaster ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Economic Changes ◽  
Risk Curve ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Annual Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Risk Curves

Abstract. To manage flood disaster with an exceeding designed level, flood risk control based on appropriate risk assessment is essential. To make an integrated economic risk assessment by flood disaster, a flood risk curve, which is a relation between flood inundation damage and its exceedance probability, plays an important role. This research purposes a method to develop a flood risk curve by utilizing a probability distribution function of annual maximum rainfall through rainfall-runoff and inundation simulations so that risk assessment can consider climate and socio-economic changes. Among a variety of uncertainties, the method proposed in this study considered spatio-temporal rainfall distributions that have high uncertainty for damage estimation. The method was applied to the Yura-gawa river basin (1882 km2) in Japan; and the annual economic benefit of an existing dam in the basin was successfully quantified by comparing flood risk curves with/without the dam.

scholarly journals A Data-Driven Approach to Cyber Risk Assessment

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Paolo Santini ◽  
Giuseppe Gottardi ◽  
Marco Baldi ◽  
Franco Chiaraluce
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Quantitative Data ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Quantitative Methodology ◽  
Data Driven Approach ◽  
Cyber Risk ◽  
A Company

Cyber risk assessment requires defined and objective methodologies; otherwise, its results cannot be considered reliable. The lack of quantitative data can be dangerous: if the assessment is entirely qualitative, subjectivity will loom large in the process. Too much subjectivity in the risk assessment process can weaken the credibility of the assessment results and compromise risk management programs. On the other hand, obtaining a sufficiently large amount of quantitative data allowing reliable extrapolations and previsions is often hard or even unfeasible. In this paper, we propose and study a quantitative methodology to assess a potential annualized economic loss risk of a company. In particular, our approach only relies on aggregated empirical data, which can be obtained from several sources. We also describe how the method can be applied to real companies, in order to customize the initial data and obtain reliable and specific risk assessments.

scholarly journals The role of risk perception in making flood risk management more effective

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 3013-3030 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Buchecker ◽  
G. Salvini ◽  
G. Di Baldassarre ◽  
E. Semenzin ◽  
E. Maidl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Perception ◽  
Risk Communication ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Communication Process ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Prevention Measures

Abstract. Over the last few decades, Europe has suffered from a number of severe flood events and, as a result, there has been a growing interest in probing alternative approaches to managing flood risk via prevention measures. A literature review reveals that, although in the last decades risk evaluation has been recognized as key element of risk management, and risk assessment methodologies (including risk analysis and evaluation) have been improved by including social, economic, cultural, historical and political conditions, the theoretical schemes are not yet applied in practice. One main reason for this shortcoming is that risk perception literature is mainly of universal and theoretical nature and cannot provide the necessary details to implement a comprehensive risk evaluation. This paper therefore aims to explore a procedure that allows the inclusion of stakeholders' perceptions of prevention measures in risk assessment. It proposes to adopt methods of risk communication (both one-way and two-way communication) in risk assessment with the final aim of making flood risk management more effective. The proposed procedure not only focuses on the effect of discursive risk communication on risk perception, and on achieving a shared assessment of the prevention alternatives, but also considers the effects of the communication process on perceived uncertainties, accepted risk levels, and trust in the managing institutions. The effectiveness of this combined procedure has been studied and illustrated using the example of the participatory flood prevention assessment process on the Sihl River in Zurich, Switzerland. The main findings of the case study suggest that the proposed procedure performed well, but that it needs some adaptations for it to be applicable in different contexts and to allow a (semi-) quantitative estimation of risk perception to be used as an indicator of adaptive capacity.

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