scholarly journals The relationship between trend and volume on the bitcoin market

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Beata Szetela ◽  
Grzegorz Mentel ◽  
Yuriy Bilan ◽  
Urszula Mentel
Keyword(s):  
Downward Trend ◽  
Volume Changes ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Directional Movement ◽  
Movement Index ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractThe aim of the paper is to verify the existence of short- and long-term relationships between the strength of a trend and the volume in bullish and bearish cryptocurrency markets. We applied the vector error correction model to bitcoin daily data from 14.01.2015 to 22.12.2019. Based on the prices and following Wilder’s algorithm, the average directional movement index was calculated, and upward and downward trend periods were determined. No long-term relationship was found to exist between the strength of a trend and the volume in both bearish and bullish markets. Hence, trends do not react to volume changes. However, a long-term relationship exists between volume and trend—but only for the downward trend—with an adjustment speed of 88%. In the short-term, a statistically significant but very weak dependency is revealed; hence, the conclusion that trend strength is insensitive to volume changes can be reached.

scholarly journals Sustainable Knowledge Investment Increases Employment and GDP in the Spanish Agricultural Sector More Than Other Investments

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 3127
Author(s):  
Carolina Cosculluela-Martínez
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
First Year ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Stock Types ◽  
Processing Techniques

Investment in every type of asset increases GDP and net employment differently. This paper compares the effect produced by a permanent unitary shock in Sustainable Knowledge for the Primary Sector (SKPS) on the Spanish employment and GDP growth with the effect produced by the other fourteen capital stock types. The methodology used is a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), where the complementary capital can affect SKPS instantaneously. The results suggest that SKPS produces the second-highest, short and long-term effects on both labor and production, per Euro invested; moreover, the investment of 4.3 thousand euros is retrieved in the first year and increases net employment in one person after four years. Accordingly, the 5 million Euro Budget to invest in sustainable machinery and processing techniques increases net employment by 827 employees.

scholarly journals Examining the Psychological State Analysis Relationship Between Bitcoin Prices and COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
JianPing Hou ◽  
Jingyi Liu ◽  
YingJiang Jie
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Psychological State ◽  
Psychological States ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Short Run

The rapid worldwide spread of COVID-19 forced many countries to enforce complete lockdown and strict quarantine policies. The strict lockdown and quarantine affect the psychological state of people toward cryptocurrency. The current research aims to examine the effect of COVID-19 on Bitcoin prices concerning cumulative deaths and confirmed cases. The research comprises daily data from January 20, 2020, to April 30, 2020, during the initial worldwide breakout of COVID-19. This research employed the augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check the stationarity of data, the co-integration test for the interdependency of variables, and the vector error correction model for identifying the direction and long or short-run relationship between Bitcoin prices and COVID-19. The research results show that Bitcoin prices are negatively significant and related to COVID-19 in the short-run. A unidirectional relationship between Bitcoin prices and cumulative deaths is also observed. Investors and the public’s psychological state were positively significant to Bitcoin prices in the long-term because of cashless transactions, unbanked, and less risky virus traveling. The second reason behind the positive psychological relation is un-centralization and easy-to-make payments by Bitcoin. This study’s finding provides timely evidence to decision-makers on Bitcoin price volatility and its impacts on the public’s psychological states regarding COVID-19.

scholarly journals “Contágio” entre Mercados de Capitais Emergentes e Mercados Desenvolvidos: Evidências Empíricas e Reflexos sobre a Diversificação Internacional de Portfólios

2008 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 267
Author(s):  
Else Monteiro Nogueira ◽  
Wagner Moura Lamounier
Keyword(s):  
International Diversification ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Speed Of Adjustment ◽  
Developed Markets ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Emerging Capital Markets ◽  
Reduce Risk

In this research, we analyzed the short and long term interdependence and relationship between the stock indices of the major emerging capital markets and the major developed markets for the period 1995-2005. The aim was to verify the existence and the dynamics of the “contagion” between the markets, or if the occurrence of crises and changes in the behavior of a market would have impacts on the behavior of the others. In the development of the work, we applied the methodology of the Vector Error Correction Model (VEC). We found the presence of cointegrating relationships between the markets analyzed, but was able to see that, despite being cointegrated markets, investors could benefit from international diversification of portfolios. That’s because the speed of adjustment of the long-term ratio of cointegration between the markets was low for the period analyzed. Accordingly, investors would have the opportunity to reduce risk by diversifying their portfolios. Keywords: Cointegration; VEC; emerging markets; developed markets; international diversification.

scholarly journals Analysis Relationship of Imported Rice with Rice Production, Imported and Domestic Rice Prices with VECM

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 337
Author(s):  
Abyan Rai ◽  
Sasmito Hadi Wibowo
Keyword(s):  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Rice Consumption ◽  
Rice Prices ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

Rice is the main food for most Indonesians. With much natural resources, Indonesia can naturally fulfill its own rice consumption needs. However, Indonesia actually relies on imports to meet consumption needs. Even Indonesia continues to import while rice production is volatility surplus to maintain domestic rice prices. Based on these problems, this study aims to analyze the relationship of volume of imported rice with rice production, domestic rice prices, and prices of imported rice. The method used is descriptive analysis and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). In the long-term, rice production and domestic rice prices have significant effect on Indonesia's rice import volume. In short-term, rice production and domestic rice prices have significant effect on Indonesian rice import volume. The results of the causality test show that there is a two-way relationship between Indonesian rice import volume and Indonesian production rice. Meanwhile, a one-way relationship occurs when imported rice volumes influenced by prices of domestic rice.

scholarly journals Free Trade: Does Myopic Policy Overlook Long-Term Gains?

2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 65-88
Author(s):  
Maryiam Haroon
Keyword(s):  
Trade Liberalization ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Myopic Policy ◽  
The Relationship

This article analyzes the correlation between trade liberalization and welfare in Pakistan from 1986 to 2015. Using consumption expenditure as a measure of welfare, we estimate the relationship using a vector error correction model. The empirical results show that trade liberalization does not have an immediate correlation with welfare: it takes some time for liberalization policies to enhance welfare. The findings also suggest that trade liberalization can help reduce poverty, decrease inequality and increase enrollment levels in the long run. But in the short run, trade liberalization has led to higher income inequality.

scholarly journals PENGARUH EKSPOR HASIL MINYAK DAN IMPOR MINYAK BUMI TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 23
Author(s):  
Fadila Arza ◽  
Murtala Murtala
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Positive Effect

This study aims to analyze the effect of oil product exports and petroleum imports on the economic growth of Indonesia. This study uses secondary data. The method used to analyze the relationship between endogenous and exogenous variables is a dynamic model with the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach. The results in the long-term and short-term show that Oil Products Exports have a positive effect on the Economic Growth of Indonesia. In the long-term and short-term, petroleum imports negatively influence the economic growth of Indonesia.Keywords:Oil Product Exports, Crude Oil Imports, Economic Growth

scholarly journals Short And Long Term Effects Of Tourism Gdp Performance In Malaysia

2021 ◽  
pp. 1333-1341
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Stationary Test ◽  
The Relationship

This study applies observational investigation and concentrates on two primary variables which foreign direct investment and tourism. Information from 1991 to 2019 was gathered from World Bank to focus the relationship among the variables. The tests used to decipher this result are Stationary Test, Co-integration Test, Vector Error Correction Model and Granger Causality test. First, the Stationary Test focused on the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test was measuring about the time series data’s stationary property. Next, the method used to assess the existence of the relationship between two foreign direct investment variables and tourism is the Co-integrated Test. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) includes a bug fix model that should focus on the core behavior of that model. VECM specifies a simulated model that changes simultaneously towards its long-term estimates. It shows that disequilibrium disease will join in to make it work longer. VECM similarly observed the relationship between the variables over time. Finally, the Granger Causality Test was performed to look at the causal relationship between the two variables which is the relationship between foreign direct investment and tourism

scholarly journals DOES SUKUK, DOMESTIC INVESTMENT, FOREIGN INVESTMENT, AND INFLATION CONTRIBUTE TO ECONOMIC GROWTH IN INDONESIA?

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (12) ◽  
pp. 2375
Author(s):  
Laela Setianingsih ◽  
Emy Widyastuti
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Positive Contribution ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Short And Long Term

ABSTRAKIndikator yang menentukan keberhasilan pembangunan ekonomi adalah pertumbuhan ekonomi. Kemajuan dan kesejahteraan suatu negara dapat dilihat melalui pertumbuhan ekonominya. Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia berfluktuasi setiap tahun dan dipengaruhi oleh banyak faktor. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui kontribusi sukuk jangka pendek dan jangka panjang, penanaman modal dalam negeri, penanaman modal asing, dan inflasi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia dari tahun 2011 hingga 2019. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder time series dengan periode penelitian triwulanan dari tahun 2011 hingga 2019. Hasil pengujian menunjukkan bahwa variabel sukuk memiliki kontribusi negatif yang tidak signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam jangka pendek dan dalam jangka Panjang, sukuk berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Variabel investasi dalam negeri dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang memberikan kontribusi positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Variabel investasi dalam negeri jangka pendek dan jangka panjang memberikan kontribusi positif yang tidak signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Dan variabel inflasi memiliki kontribusi yang negatif dan tidak signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang.Kata Kunci: Sukuk, Penanaman Modal Dalam Negeri, Penanaman Modal Asing, Inflasi, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi. ABSTRACTThe indicator for determining the success of economic development is economic growth. The progress and welfare of a country can be seen through its economic growth. Indonesia’s economic growth fluctuates every year and is influenced by many factors. This study aims to determine the short-term and long-term contributions of Sukuk, domestic investment, foreign investment, and inflation to economic growth in Indonesia from 2011 to 2019. This method used in this research is the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The data used in this study are secondary time series data with a quarterly research period from 2011 to 2019. The test results show that the sukuk variable has an insignificant negative contribution to economic growth in the short term and the long term sukuk has a significant positive contribution to economic growth. Domestic investment variables in the short and long term contribute positively to economic growth. The short-term and long-term domestic investment variables have an insignificant positive contribution to economic growth. And the inflation variable has a negative and insignificant contribution to economic growth in the short and long term. Keywords: Sukuk, Domestic Investment, Foreign Investment, Inflation, Economic Growth.

scholarly journals An Assessment of House Loans Cointegration with Macro Variables in Selected Euro Zone Countries

Ekonomika ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 99 (2) ◽  
pp. 39-58
Author(s):  
Kazys Kupčinskas ◽  
Arvydas Paškevičius
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Macro Variables ◽  
The Relationship

This paper performs an empirical study on house loans, interest rates, unemployment, and house rent prices relationship in Germany, France, Spain and Italy from the year 2003 to 2018. We look for the cointegration and causality relationship between the house loans and macro variables with the help of the Vector error correction model (VECM) and Granger causality methods. We investigate whether variables with monthly data explain better the relationship and causal effects between the variables. We find a long term cointegrating relationship between the real house loans and interest rates, unemployment and house rent prices for France, Spain, and Italy, but not for Germany. On average the equilibrium in house loan development is reached from 4 to 8 years, meaning that long term equilibrium exists, but the variables reach it in a rather long time period. The ECB deposit facility rate included as an exogenous variable in four countries gained no significant power in explaining the short term changes of house loans in any of the country. We reveal a complex interaction between the bank’s credits and unemployment, interest rates, house rental prices in the paper. 

scholarly journals Implication of Human Capital Development on Economic Growth by Using Cointegration and Error Correction Modelling in Pakistan

2021 ◽  
pp. 73-79
Author(s):  
Nayab Minhaj
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Human Capital Development ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Government ◽  
Capital Development

The study examined human capital development and Pakistan economic growth in the quest to evaluate various policy grounds upon which capital development exist among nations and its nexus and effect it will have on the domestic economy, this paper cross-examined the objective purpose of capital development as a measure of economy development the vector error correction approach was adopted as an estimation technique to reveal the short and long term disequilibrium in the study. Findings from the study show that there is a direct influence between the subject matter of human capital and economic growth in Pakistan by these findings, the study recommends that the government of Pakistan should continue the level of spending for the two sectors of health and education which are the underlying sectors for attaining capital development and purposeful growth and development in the Pakistan economy.

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