Simulating long-term impacts of cover crops and climate change on crop production and environmental outcomes in the Midwestern United States

Best management practices (BMPs) are site-specific and their implementation, long-term management, and maintenance are important for successful reduction of phosphorus (P) loss into headwater streams. This paper reviews published research on managing P loss from agricultural cropping systems in the Midwestern United States and classified the available research based on BMPs and their efficacy in reducing P loss. This review paper also identifies the areas where additional research could provide insight for managing P losses. Our literature review shows that cover crops, reduced tillage, saturated buffers, and constructed wetlands are the most evaluated areas of current research. However, additional research is necessary on the site-specific area to measure the effectiveness of BMPs in managing P loss. The BMPs that serve as a sink of P need further evaluation in long-term field-scale trials. Studies evaluating adsorption and desorption mechanisms of P in surface and subsurface soils with materials or amendments that bind P in the soil are needed. The time required and pathways, where the flush of available P is lost or fixed in the soil matrix, need further investigation. Measured P loss from BMPs like bioreactors and saturated buffers supplemented with P adsorption materials or filters need to be simulated with models for their prediction and validation. Field evaluations of P index and critical source area concepts should be investigated for identifying problematic areas in the watersheds. Identification of overlapping areas of high P source and transport can help in strategic planning and layout, thereby resulting in reducing the cost of implementing BMPs at field and watershed scales.

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Examining the Climatology of Shortwave Radiation in the Northeastern United States

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology ◽

10.1175/jamc-d-16-0420.1 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 56 (10) ◽

pp. 2869-2881

Author(s):

Janel Hanrahan ◽

Alexandria Maynard ◽

Sarah Y. Murphy ◽

Colton Zercher ◽

Allison Fitzpatrick

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

United States ◽

Renewable Energy ◽

Renewable Energy Sources ◽

Predictor Variable ◽

Shortwave Radiation ◽

Northeastern United States ◽

Weather Patterns ◽

Long Term Trends

AbstractAs demand for renewable energy grows, so does the need for an improved understanding of renewable energy sources. Paradoxically, the climate change mitigation strategy of fossil fuel divestment is in itself subject to shifts in weather patterns resulting from climate change. This is particularly true with solar power, which depends on local cloud cover. However, because observed shortwave radiation data usually span a decade or less, persistent long-term trends may not be identified. A simple linear regression model is created here using diurnal temperature range (DTR) during 2002–15 as a predictor variable to estimate long-term shortwave radiation (SR) values in the northeastern United States. Using an extended DTR dataset, SR values are computed for 1956–2015. Statistically significant decreases in shortwave radiation are identified that are dominated by changes during the summer months. Because this coincides with the season of greatest insolation and the highest potential for energy production, financial implications may be large for the solar energy industry if such trends persist into the future.

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Impacts of future climate change on soil frost in the midwestern United States

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres ◽

10.1029/2009jd012188 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 115 (D8) ◽

Cited By ~ 26

Author(s):

Tushar Sinha ◽

Keith A. Cherkauer

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

United States ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Soil Frost ◽

Midwestern United States

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Aeroallergens and Climate Change in Tulsa, Oklahoma: Long-Term Trends in the South Central United States

Frontiers in Allergy ◽

10.3389/falgy.2021.726445 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 2 ◽

Author(s):

Estelle Levetin

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

United States ◽

Pollen Season ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

The South ◽

South Central ◽

Pollen Types ◽

Central United States ◽

Total Pollen

Climate change is having a significant effect on many allergenic plants resulting in increased pollen production and shifts in plant phenology. Although these effects have been well-studied in some areas of the world, few studies have focused on long-term changes in allergenic pollen in the South Central United States. This study examined airborne pollen, temperature, and precipitation in Tulsa, Oklahoma over 25 to 34 years. Pollen was monitored with a Hirst-type spore trap on the roof of a building at the University of Tulsa and meteorology data were obtained from the National Weather Service. Changes in total pollen intensity were examined along with detailed analyses of the eight most abundant pollen types in the Tulsa atmosphere. In addition to pollen intensity, changes in pollen season start date, end date, peak date and season duration were also analyzed. Results show a trend to increasing temperatures with a significant increase in annual maximum temperature. There was a non-significant trend toward increasing total pollen and a significant increase in tree pollen over time. Several individual taxa showed significant increases in pollen intensity over the study period including spring Cupressaceae and Quercus pollen, while Ambrosia pollen showed a significant decrease. Data from the current study also indicated that the pollen season started earlier for spring pollinating trees and Poaceae. Significant correlations with preseason temperature may explain the earlier pollen season start dates along with a trend toward increasing March temperatures. More research is needed to understand the global impact of climate change on allergenic species, especially from other regions that have not been studied.

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Climate change and drought effects on rural income distribution in the Mediterranean: a case study for Spain

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/nhessd-3-4353-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 3 (7) ◽

pp. 4353-4389

Author(s):

S. Quiroga ◽

C. Suárez

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Income Distribution ◽

Rural Areas ◽

Crop Production ◽

Crop Productivity ◽

Social Aspect ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

Effects Of Drought ◽

The Impact

Abstract. This paper examines the effects of climate change and drought on agricultural outputs in Spanish rural areas. By now the effects of drought as a response to climate change or policy restrictions have been analyzed through response functions considering direct effects on crop productivity and incomes. These changes also affect incomes distribution in the region and therefore modify the social structure. Here we consider this complementary indirect effect on social distribution of incomes which is essential in the long term. We estimate crop production functions for a range of Mediterranean crops in Spain and we use a decomposition of inequalities measure to estimate the impact of climate change and drought on yield disparities. This social aspect is important for climate change policies since it can be determinant for the public acceptance of certain adaptation measures in a context of drought. We provide the empirical estimations for the marginal effects of the two considered impacts: farms' income average and social income distribution. In our estimates we consider crop productivity response to both bio-physical and socio-economic aspects to analyze long term implications on both competitiveness and social disparities. We find disparities in the adaptation priorities depending on the crop and the region analyzed.

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Crop switching reduces agricultural losses from climate change in the United States by half under RCP 8.5

Nature Communications ◽

10.1038/s41467-020-18725-w ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

James Rising ◽

Naresh Devineni

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

United States ◽

Crop Production ◽

Cross Validation ◽

Climate Adaptation ◽

The United States ◽

Model Parameters ◽

Economic Potential ◽

Bayesian Hierarchical ◽

Rcp 8.5

AbstractA key strategy for agriculture to adapt to climate change is by switching crops and relocating crop production. We develop an approach to estimate the economic potential of crop reallocation using a Bayesian hierarchical model of yields. We apply the model to six crops in the United States, and show that it outperforms traditional empirical models under cross-validation. The fitted model parameters provide evidence of considerable existing climate adaptation across counties. If crop locations are held constant in the future, total agriculture profits for the six crops will drop by 31% for the temperature patterns of 2070 under RCP 8.5. When crop lands are reallocated to avoid yield decreases and take advantage of yield increases, half of these losses are avoided (16% loss), but 57% of counties are allocated crops different from those currently planted. Our results provide a framework for identifying crop adaptation opportunities, but suggest limits to their potential.

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Site specific impacts of climate change on crop rotations and their management in Brandenburg/Germany

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-11783 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Kurt-Christian Kersebaum ◽

Susanne Schulz ◽

Evelyn Wallor

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Organic Matter ◽

Soil Organic Matter ◽

Cover Crops ◽

Crop Production ◽

Capillary Rise ◽

Crop Rotations ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Soil Map ◽

Digital Soil Map

Climate change impact on crop production depends on the cultivated crop and its position within crop rotations and on site conditions, e.g. soils and hydrology, buffering adverse weather situations. We present a regional study across the federal state of Brandenburg/Germany based on gridded climate data and a digital soil map using the HERMES-to-Go model. The aim was to investigate defined crop rotations and common agricultural practices under current and future climate conditions regarding productivity and environmental effects. Two contrasting GCMs (HAD and MPI) were used to generate climate input for modelling for the RCPs 2.6 and 8.5.5 different types of crop production were simulated by defining crop rotations over 4-5 years for soil quality rating groups. While one rotation is comprised by the most common crops, another rotation modifies the first one by introducing a legume followed by a more demanding crop. The third rotation intends to produce higher value crops, e.g. potatoes than the first one, while the fourth rotation has its focus on fodder grass and cereal production. Building on this the fifth rotation replaces the fodder grass by alfalfa. All rotations are simulated in shifted phases to ensure that each crop is simulated for each year.Sowing, harvest and nitrogen fertilization were derived by algorithms based on soil and climate information to allow self-adaptation to changing climate conditions. The crop rotations are simulated under rainfed and irrigated conditions and with and without the implementation of cover crops to prevent winter fallow.We used the digital soil map 1:300.000 for Brandenburg with 99 soil map units. Within the soil map unit, up to three dominant soil types were considered to achieve at least 65% coverage. 276 soil types are defined by their soil profiles including soil organic matter content and texture down to 2 meters. Groundwater levels are estimated using the depth of reduction horizons as constant values over the year, to consider capillary rise depending on soil texture and distance between the root zone and the groundwater table.In total each climate scenario contains about 148.000 simulations of 30 years. Beside crop yields we analyse the outputs for trends in soil organic matter, groundwater recharge, nitrogen leaching and the effect on water and nitrogen management using algorithms for automatic management.Results indicate that spring crops were more negatively affected by climate change than winter crops especially on soils with low water holding capacity. However, few areas with more loamy soils and potential contribution of capillary rise from a shallow groundwater even benefited from climate change. Irrigation in most cases improved crop yield especially for spring crops. However, further analysis is required to assess if irrigation gains an economic benefit for all crop rotations. Nitrogen leaching can be reduced by implementing winter cover crops. Soil organic matter is assessed to decline for most sites and rotations. Only the rotations with multiyear grass or alfalfa can keep the level, but not on all sites.

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Effect of persistent water cover on soil structure, investigated on representative Hungarian soil samples

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-19495 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Viktória Labancz ◽

András Sebők ◽

Imre Czinkota ◽

Tamás Szegi ◽

András Makó

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Crop Production ◽

Soil Structure ◽

Aggregate Stability ◽

Basic Research ◽

Soil Samples ◽

Agricultural Crop ◽

Laser Diffractometry ◽

Water Cover

Today, due to climate change, soil degradation processes related to extreme water supply situations (flood, inland water or drought) are occurring more and more frequently. Soil structure is one of the most important soil characteristics influencing many transport of materials (transport, storage of heat, gas, water and nutrients).Furthermore, it defines and ultimately determines the significant physical, chemical and biological processes involved and also the most important factor in agricultural crop production. Permanent water cover has a significant effect on soil structure, but the dynamics of disaggregation and the role of the soil factors influencing it is not yet fully understood. Our basic research aim is to investigate the effect of permanent water cover on soil structure on representative Hungarian soil samples. In our experiment, we sought to find the answer to the question of how long-term water coverage causes changes and damage to the soil structure under laboratory conditions by artificial water cover. We measured aggregate stability with Mastersizer 3000 Hydro LV laser diffractometry device and some soil chemistry parameters with Agilent 4210 MP-AES at different water cover times (selected in the literature). Based on experiences the effect of persistent water cover from the soil structure side can be most noticeable in the changes of macro- and microaggregate stability, as well as in the change of certain chemical parameters (e.g. calcium and iron content), thus, the aim of our research was to investigate these characteristics also. After compiling our results in a database, we evaluated and deduced statistical data on the long-term degradation effects of water cover. We also made an attempt to describe its disaggregation dynamics for different Hungarian soil types. Based on the results, we have selected the most sensitive soils for permanent water cover, which are also expected to be sensitive to extreme water management related to climate change.

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