scholarly journals Multi-factor reconciliation of discrepancies in ozone-precursor sensitivity retrieved from observation- and emission-based models

2022 ◽  
Vol 158 ◽  
pp. 106952
Author(s):  
Danni Xu ◽  
Zibing Yuan ◽  
Ming Wang ◽  
Kaihui Zhao ◽  
Xuehui Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 4
Author(s):  
Marc L. Mansfield ◽  
Seth N. Lyman

High concentrations of ground-level ozone have been observed during wintertime in the Uinta Basin of western Utah, USA, beginning in 2010. We analyze existing ozone and ozone precursor concentration data from 38 sites over 11 winter seasons and conclude that there has been a statistically significant (p < 0.02) decline in ozone concentration over the previous decade. Daily exceedances of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard for ozone (70 ppb) have been trending downward at the rate of nearly four per year. Ozone and NOx concentrations have been trending downward at the rates of about 3 and 0.3 ppb per year, respectively. Concentrations of organics in 2018 were at about 30% of their values in 2012 or 2013. Several markers, annual ozone exceedance counts and median ozone and NOx concentrations, were at their largest values in the period 2010 to 2013 and have never recovered since then. We attribute the decline to (1) weakening global demand for oil and natural gas and (2) more stringent pollution regulations and controls, both of which have occurred over the previous decade. We also see evidence of ozone titration when snow cover is absent.


2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 2727-2746 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antara Banerjee ◽  
Amanda C. Maycock ◽  
Alexander T. Archibald ◽  
N. Luke Abraham ◽  
Paul Telford ◽  
...  

Abstract. A stratosphere-resolving configuration of the Met Office's Unified Model (UM) with the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols (UKCA) scheme is used to investigate the atmospheric response to changes in (a) greenhouse gases and climate, (b) ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and (c) non-methane ozone precursor emissions. A suite of time-slice experiments show the separate, as well as pairwise, impacts of these perturbations between the years 2000 and 2100. Sensitivity to uncertainties in future greenhouse gases and aerosols is explored through the use of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The results highlight an important role for the stratosphere in determining the annual mean tropospheric ozone response, primarily through stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE) of ozone. Under both climate change and reductions in ODSs, increases in STE offset decreases in net chemical production and act to increase the tropospheric ozone burden. This opposes the effects of projected decreases in ozone precursors through measures to improve air quality, which act to reduce the ozone burden. The global tropospheric lifetime of ozone (τO3) does not change significantly under climate change at RCP4.5, but it decreases at RCP8.5. This opposes the increases in τO3 simulated under reductions in ODSs and ozone precursor emissions. The additivity of the changes in ozone is examined by comparing the sum of the responses in the single-forcing experiments to those from equivalent combined-forcing experiments. Whilst the ozone responses to most forcing combinations are found to be approximately additive, non-additive changes are found in both the stratosphere and troposphere when a large climate forcing (RCP8.5) is combined with the effects of ODSs.


Author(s):  
Colby B. Francoeur ◽  
Brian C. McDonald ◽  
Jessica B. Gilman ◽  
Kyle J. Zarzana ◽  
Barbara Dix ◽  
...  

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antara Banerjee ◽  
Amanda C. Maycock ◽  
John A. Pyle

Abstract. The ozone radiative forcings (RFs) resulting from projected changes in climate, ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), non-methane ozone precursor emissions and methane between the years 2000 and 2100 are calculated using simulations from the UM-UKCA chemistry-climate model. Projected measures to improve air-quality through reductions in tropospheric ozone precursor emissions present a co-benefit for climate, with a net global mean ozone RF of −0.09 Wm−2. This is opposed by a positive ozone RF of 0.07 Wm−2 due to future decreases in ODSs, which is mainly driven by an increase in tropospheric ozone through stratosphere-to-troposphere exchange. An increase in methane abundance by more than a factor of two (as projected by the RCP8.5 scenario) is found to drive an ozone RF of 0.19 Wm−2, which would greatly outweigh the climate benefits of tropospheric non-methane ozone precursor reductions. A third of the ozone RF due to the projected increase in methane results from increases in stratospheric ozone. The sign of the ozone RF due to future changes in climate (including the radiative effects of greenhouse gas concentrations, sea surface temperatures and sea ice changes) is shown to be dependent on the greenhouse gas emissions pathway, with a positive RF (0.06 Wm−2) for RCP4.5 and a negative RF (−0.07 Wm−2) for the RCP8.5 scenario. This dependence arises from differences in the contribution to RF from stratospheric ozone changes.


2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 625-655
Author(s):  
J. Klingberg ◽  
M. Engardt ◽  
P. E. Karlsson ◽  
J. Langner ◽  
H. Pleijel

Abstract. The impacts of climate change and changes in ozone precursor emission on ozone exposure (AOT40) of the vegetation in Europe were investigated. In addition, meteorological conditions influencing stomatal uptake of ozone were analysed to find out if climate change is likely to affect the risk for ozone damage to vegetation. Climate simulations based on the IPCC SRES A1B scenario were combined with ozone precursor emission changes from the RCP4.5 scenario and used as input to the Eulerian Chemical Transport Model MATCH from which projections of ozone concentrations were derived. Provided that the climate projections are realistic and the emission reductions of the emission scenario are undertaken, the ozone exposure of vegetation over Europe will be significantly reduced between the two time periods 1990–2009 and 2040–2059. This decline in AOT40 is larger than the reduction in average ozone concentrations. The reduction is driven by the emission reductions assumed by the RCP4.5 emission scenario, rather than changes in the climate. Higher temperatures in a future climate will result in a prolonged growing season over Europe as well as larger temperature sums during the growing season. Both the extended growing season and higher temperatures may enhance ozone uptake by plants in colder parts of Europe. The future climate suggested by the regional climate model will be dryer in terms of higher vapour pressure deficit (VPD) and lower soil moisture in southern Europe, which may reduce ozone uptake. VPD and soil moisture was not projected to change in north and north-west Europe to an extent that would influence ozone uptake by vegetation. This study shows that substantial reductions of ozone precursor emissions have the potential to strongly reduce the risk for ozone effects on vegetation, even if concurrent climate change promotes ozone formation.


2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 9161-9194 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Ran ◽  
C. S. Zhao ◽  
W. Y. Xu ◽  
M. Han ◽  
X. Q. Lu ◽  
...  

Abstract. Rapid economic growth has given rise to a significant increase in ozone precursor emissions in many regions of China, especially in the densely populated North China Plain (NCP) and Yangtze River Delta (YRD). Improved understanding of ozone formation in response to different precursor emissions is imperative to address the highly nonlinear ozone problem and to provide a solid scientific basis for efficient ozone abatement in these regions. A comparative study on ozone photochemical production in summer has thus been carried out in the megacities of Tianjin (NCP) and Shanghai (YRD). Two intensive field campaigns were carried out respectively at an urban and a suburban site of Tianjin, in addition to routine monitoring of trace gases in Shanghai, providing data sets of surface ozone and its precursors including nitrogen oxides (NOx) and various volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Ozone pollution was found to be more severe in Tianjin than in Shanghai during the summer, either based on the frequency or the duration of high ozone events. Such differences might be attributed to the large amount of highly reactive VOC mixture in the Tianjin region. It is found that industry related species like light alkenes were of particular importance in both urban and suburban Tianjin, while in Shanghai aromatics dominate. In general, the ozone problem in Shanghai is on an urban scale. Stringent control policies on local emissions would help reduce the occurrence of high ozone concentrations. By contrast, ozone pollution in Tianjin is a regional problem. Combined efforts to reduce ozone precursor emissions on a regional scale must be undertaken to bring the ozone problem under control.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Inês Vieira ◽  
Hans Verbeeck ◽  
Félicien Meunier ◽  
Marc Peaucelle ◽  
Lodewijk Lefevre ◽  
...  

&lt;p&gt;Tropospheric ozone is a greenhouse gas, and high tropospheric ozone levels can directly impact plant growth and human health. In the Congo basin, simulations predict high ozone concentrations, induced by high ozone precursor (VOC and NOx) concentrations and high solar irradiation, which trigger the chemical reactions that form ozone. Additionally, biomass burning activities are widespread on the African continent, playing a crucial role in ozone precursor production. How these potentially high ozone levels impact tropical forest primary productivity remains poorly understood, and field-based ozone monitoring is completely lacking from the Congo basin. This study intends to show preliminary results from the first full year of in situ measurements of ozone concentration in the Congo Basin (i.e., Yangambi, Democratic Republic of the Congo). We show the relationships between meteorological variables (temperature, precipitation, radiation, wind direction and speed), fire occurrence (derived from remote sensing products) and ozone concentrations at a new continuous monitoring station in the heart of the Congo Basin. First results show higher daily mean ozone levels (e.g. 43 ppb registered in January 2020) during dry season months (December-February). We identify a strong diurnal cycle, where minimum values of ozone (almost near zero) are registered during night hours, and maximum values (near 100 ppb) are registered during the daytime. We also verify that around 2.5% of the ozone measurements exceeds a toxicity level (potential for ozone to damage vegetation) of 40 ppb. In the longer term, these measurements should improve the accuracy of future model simulations in the Congo Basin and will be used to assess the impact of ozone on the tropical forest&amp;#8217;s primary productivity.&lt;/p&gt;


2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (19) ◽  
pp. 5269-5283 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Klingberg ◽  
M. Engardt ◽  
P. E. Karlsson ◽  
J. Langner ◽  
H. Pleijel

Abstract. The impacts of changes in ozone precursor emissions as well as climate change on the future ozone exposure of the vegetation in Europe were investigated. The ozone exposure is expressed as AOT40 (Accumulated exposure Over a Threshold of 40 ppb O3) as well as PODY (Phytotoxic Ozone Dose above a threshold Y). A new method is suggested to express how the length of the period during the year when coniferous and evergreen trees are sensitive to ozone might be affected by climate change. Ozone precursor emission changes from the RCP4.5 scenario were combined with climate simulations based on the IPCC SRES A1B scenario and used as input to the Eulerian Chemistry Transport Model MATCH from which projections of ozone concentrations were derived. The ozone exposure of vegetation over Europe expressed as AOT40 was projected to be substantially reduced between the periods 1990–2009 and 2040–2059 to levels which are well below critical levels used for vegetation in the EU directive 2008/50/EC as well as for crops and forests used in the LRTAP convention, despite that the future climate resulted in prolonged yearly ozone sensitive periods. The reduction in AOT40 was mainly driven by the emission reductions, not changes in the climate. For the toxicologically more relevant POD1 index the projected reductions were smaller, but still significant. The values for POD1 for the time period 2040–2059 were not projected to decrease to levels which are below critical levels for forest trees, represented by Norway spruce. This study shows that substantial reductions of ozone precursor emissions have the potential to strongly reduce the future risk for ozone effects on the European vegetation, even if concurrent climate change promotes ozone formation.


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