Major bleeding and intracranial hemorrhage risk prediction in patients with atrial fibrillation: Attention to modifiable bleeding risk factors or use of a bleeding risk stratification score? A nationwide cohort study

2018 ◽  
Vol 254 ◽  
pp. 157-161 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tze-Fan Chao ◽  
Gregory Y.H. Lip ◽  
Yenn-Jiang Lin ◽  
Shih-Lin Chang ◽  
Li-Wei Lo ◽  
...  
BMJ Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. e022478 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miklos Rohla ◽  
Thomas W Weiss ◽  
Ladislav Pecen ◽  
Giuseppe Patti ◽  
Jolanta M Siller-Matula ◽  
...  

ObjectivesWe identified factors associated with thromboembolic and bleeding events in two contemporary cohorts of anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), treated with either vitamin K antagonists (VKA) or non-VKA oral anticoagulants (NOACs).DesignProspective, multicentre observational study.Setting461 centres in seven European countries.Participants5310 patients receiving a VKA (PREvention oF thromboembolic events - European Registry in Atrial Fibrillation (PREFER in AF), derivation cohort) and 3156 patients receiving a NOAC (PREFER in AF Prolongation, validation cohort) for stroke prevention in AF.Outcome measuresRisk factors for thromboembolic events (ischaemic stroke, systemic embolism) and major bleeding (gastrointestinal bleeding, intracerebral haemorrhage and other life-threatening bleeding).ResultsThe mean age of patients enrolled in the PREFER in AF registry was 72±10 years, 40% were female and the mean CHA2DS2-VASc Score was 3.5±1.7. The incidence of thromboembolic and major bleeding events was 2.34% (95% CI 1.93% to 2.74%) and 2.84% (95% CI 2.41% to 3.33%) after 1-year of follow-up, respectively.Abnormal liver function, prior stroke or transient ischaemic attack, labile international normalised ratio (INR), concomitant therapy with antiplatelet or non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, heart failure and older age (≥75 years) were independently associated with both thromboembolic and major bleeding events.With the exception of unstable INR values, these risk factors were validated in patients treated with NOACs (PREFER in AF Prolongation Study, 72±9 years, 40% female, CHA2DS2-VASc 3.3±1.6). For each single point decrease on a modifiable bleeding risk scale we observed a 30% lower risk for major bleeding events (OR 0.70, 95% CI 0.64 to 0.76, p<0.01) and a 28% lower rate of thromboembolic events (OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.82, p<0.01).ConclusionAttending to modifiable risk factors is an important treatment target in anticoagulated AF patients to reduce thromboembolic and bleeding events. Initiation of anticoagulation in those at risk of stroke should not be prevented by elevated bleeding risk scores.


2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (Supplement_O) ◽  
pp. O14-O27
Author(s):  
Deirdre A Lane ◽  
Gregory Y H Lip

Abstract Atrial fibrillation (AF) significantly increases the risk of stroke and, therefore, stroke prevention is an essential component of the management for patients with AF. This requires formal assessment of the individual risk of stroke to determine if the patient is eligible for oral anticoagulation (OAC), and if so, their risk of bleeding on OAC, before a treatment decision regarding stroke prevention is made. Risk of stroke is not homogenous; it depends on the presence or absence of risk factors. A plethora of stroke and bleeding risk factors has been identified, including common and less-well established clinical risk factors, plus imaging, urine, and blood biomarkers. Consequently, there are several stroke and bleeding risk stratification scores available and this article provides an overview of them, the risk factors included and how they are scored, and provides a critical appraisal of them. The review also discusses the debate regarding whether female sex is a risk factor or a risk modifier, and highlights the dynamic nature of both stroke and bleeding risk and the need to re-assess these risks periodically to ensure treatment is optimal to reduce the risk of adverse outcomes. This review also summarizes the recommended stroke and bleeding risk stratification scores from all current major international guidelines.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Jia Liu ◽  
Guanyun Wang ◽  
Liu’an Qin ◽  
Yangxun Wu ◽  
Yuting Zou ◽  
...  

Background. This study aimed to analyse the role of the HAS-BLED score with the addition of genotype bins for bleeding risk prediction in warfarin-treated patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Methods and Results. Consecutive patients with AF on initial warfarin treatment were recruited. For each patient, CYP2C9 ∗ 3 and VKORC1-1639 A/G genotyping was performed to create 3 genotype functional bins. The predictive values of the HAS-BLED score with or without the addition of genotype bins were compared. According to the carrier status of the genotype bins, the numbers of normal, sensitive, and highly sensitive responders among 526 patients were 64 (12.17%), 422 (80.23%), and 40 (7.60%), respectively. A highly sensitive response was independently associated with clinically relevant bleeding (HR: 3.85, 95% CI: 1.88–7.91, P = 0.001 ) and major bleeding (HR:3.75, 95% CI: 1.17–11.97, P = 0.03 ). With the addition of genotype bins, the performance of the HAS-BLED score for bleeding risk prediction was significantly improved (c-statistic from 0.60 to 0.64 for clinically relevant bleeding and from 0.64 to 0.70 for major bleeding, P < 0.01 ). Using the integrated discriminatory, net reclassification improvement, and decision curve analysis, the HAS-BLED score plus genotype bins could perform better in predicting any clinically relevant bleeding than the HAS-BLED score alone. Conclusions. Genotypes have an incremental predictive value when combined with the HAS-BLED score for the prediction of clinically relevant bleeding in warfarin-treated patients with AF.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chen Sun ◽  
Hui Gao ◽  
Yuelun Zhang ◽  
Lijian Pei ◽  
Yuguang Huang

Abstract Background: Organ/space surgical site infection (organ/space SSI) is one of the serious postoperative complications, closely related to a poor prognosis. Few studies have attempted to design risk scoring systems for patients with digestive system cancer. This study aimed to develop a simple and practical risk stratification score for these patients to identify a priori risk of organ/space SSI.Methods: This prospective cohort study was based on two prospective studies (NCT02756910, ChiCTR-IPR-17011099), including patients undergoing elective radical resection of digestive system cancer. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify the determinant variables. The incidence of organ/space SSI stratified over perioperative factors was compared and compounded in a risk score.Results: Among the 839 patients, 51 developed organ/space SSI (6.1%) within 30 days after surgery. Patients undergoing gastrectomy (OR=8.466, 95% CI: 2.728-26.270, P<0.001), colorectal resection (OR=11.180, 95% CI: 3.921-31.881, P<0.001) and pancreatoduodenectomy (OR=9.054, 95% CI: 3.329-24.624, P<0.001) with an anaesthesia time > 4 h (OR=2.335, 95% CI: 1.035-5.271, P=0.041) and prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) stays > 24 h (OR=4.243, 95% CI: 1.715-10.498, P=0.002) had a significantly higher risk of organ/space SSI. These risk factors (procedure type, anaesthesia time, prolonged ICU stays) were also associated with an increase in organ/space SSI rates based on a compounded score (P<0.001). Comparisons with the overall population revealed that patients with 0 or 1 risk factor (n=602) had an organ/space SSI rate of 2.8% (RR=0.197, 95% CI: 0.112-0.345), those with 2 risk factors (n=223) had an organ/space SSI rate of 13.0% (RR=3.641; 95% CI: 2.138-6.202), and those with 3 risk factors (n=14) had an organ/space SSI rate of 35.7% (RR=6.405, 95% CI: 3.005-13.653).Conclusion: The risk stratification score in this study provides a simple and practical tool to stratify patients with digestive system cancer so that the relative risk of developing postoperative organ/space SSIs can be predicted.Trial Registration: This study was based on one randomized controlled trial (NCT02756910) registered at ClinicalTrials.gov on April 29, 2016 and one prospective cohort study (ChiCTR-IPR-17011099) registered at the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry on April 9, 2017.


Blood ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 128 (22) ◽  
pp. 529-529
Author(s):  
Rushad Patell ◽  
Alejandra Gutierrez ◽  
Lisa Rybicki ◽  
Alok A. Khorana

Abstract Background: Bleeding and thrombosis are both major complications of hospitalization in cancer patients. We have previously shown that rate of inpatient venous thromboembolism (VTE) is 4% in a general oncology population (Patell et al, ASCO 2016). Concern regarding bleeding risk may reduce compliance with thromboprophylaxis. A better understanding of predictors of bleeding could optimize use of prophylaxis but there remain major knowledge gaps regarding risk factors for in-hospital bleeding in cancer patients. We assessed major and clinically relevant bleeding incidence and identified risk factors at admission associated with subsequent in-hospital bleeding risk in a cohort of hospitalized cancer patients. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of consecutive adults admitted to general oncology floor at Cleveland Clinic from 2013-14 (n= 3466). Patients were excluded for bleeding on admission (108). Data collected included demographics, body mass index (BMI), cancer type, length of stay (LOS), use of anticoagulants and baseline laboratory values (+48 hours). Bleeding was assessed using the ISTH definitions of major bleeding and clinically relevant non-major bleeding [Schulman 2005 and Decosus 2011]. Data were collected using an electronic query system of electronic health records. Reason for admission and all bleeding events were confirmed by manual chart review. Univariate risk factors were identified with logistic regression analysis. Multivariable risk factors were identified with stepwise logistic regression and confirmed with bootstrap analysis. Results are summarized as odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Results: The study population comprised 3,358 patients of whom 69 (2.1%) developed major and clinically relevant non-major bleeding during hospitalization. Median age was 62 (range, 19-98) years and 56% were male. Median length of stay (LOS) was 5 (range, 0-152) days. The majority of bleeding events were either gastrointestinal (N=30, 43%) or intracranial (N= 13, 19%). In univariate analysis, luminal gastrointestinal (GI) cancers (OR 4.2, CI 2.4-7.5, P<0.001), anemia as reason for admission (OR 9.1, CI 5.1-16.4, P<0.001), thrombocytopenia (OR 1.6, CI 1.0-2.6, P=0.046), leukocytosis (OR 2.1, CI 1.2-3.7,P=0.005), low hemoglobin (OR 3.2, CI 1.4-7.1 P=0.003), BMI ≥ 40 kg/m2 (OR 2.6, CI 1.1-5.94, P=0.018) and anticoagulant use on admission (OR 0.4, CI 0.3-0.8, P=0.004) were significantly associated with bleeding. In multivariable analysis, anemia as the reason for admission, primary cancer site, BMI>40, thrombocytopenia and low hemoglobin on admission remained predictive of bleeding (table 1). Conclusion: The incidence of major and clinically relevant bleeding in a large population of hospitalized cancer patients was about 2%, compared to incidence of inpatient VTE in a similar population of 4%. Risk factors at admission included type of cancer and morbid obesity. Improved prediction of bleeding risk can assist physicians in optimizing selection of thromboprophylaxis in this population that is also at increased risk of VTE. Disclosures Khorana: Sanofi: Consultancy, Honoraria; Leo: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; Amgen: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; Bayer: Consultancy, Honoraria; Halozyme: Consultancy, Honoraria; Pfizer: Consultancy, Honoraria; Roche: Consultancy, Honoraria; Janssen Scientific Affairs, LLC: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding.


2021 ◽  
Vol 104 (5) ◽  
pp. 802-806

Objective: To demonstrate bleeding risk prediction of simplified HAS-BLED (sHAS-BLED) score in anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Materials and Methods: AF patients receiving warfarin were retrospectively recruited in Central Chest Institute of Thailand between October 2012 and December 2017. The main outcome was total bleeding including major bleeding, clinically relevant non-major bleeding or minor bleeding. The chi-square test or Fisher’s exact test was used to compare the main outcome between sHAS-BLED and conventional HAS-BLED (cHAS-BLED) scores. A sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of sHAS-BLED were calculated. The discrimination performances of sHAS-BLED and cHAS-BLED scores were demonstrated with c-statistics. Results: One hundred ten patients were recruited. The mean age was 70.53±9.58 years. The average sHAS-BLED and cHAS-BLED scores were 2.23±0.79 and 1.95±0.83, respectively. The patients with sHAS-BLED score of 3 or more had 15 total bleeding events (37.50%) while those with score of less than 3 had 13 total bleeding events (18.57%). Those with sHAS-BLED score of 3 or more had more total bleeding than those with score of less than 3 with statistical significance (odds ratio 2.63; 95% CI 1.09 to 6.25; p=0.049). A sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of sHAS-BLED score were 53.57%, 69.51%, 37.50%, and 81.43%, respectively. The discrimination performances of sHAS-BLED and cHAS-BLED scores were demonstrated with c-statistics of 0.65 and 0.67, respectively. Conclusion: The sHAS-BLED score can be used for bleeding risk prediction in anticoagulated AF patients compared with cHAS-BLED score. Keywords: Simplified HAS-BLED, Atrial fibrillation, Anticoagulant, Bleeding, SAMe-TT₂R₂


Open Heart ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. e000931 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ole-Christian Walter Rutherford ◽  
Christian Jonasson ◽  
Waleed Ghanima ◽  
René Holst ◽  
Sigrun Halvorsen

BackgroundInformation is needed on bleeding risk factors specific for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) treated with non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (NOACs). We aimed to identify risk factors in a large real-world cohort and to derive a bleeding risk score for patients with AF treated with NOACs.MethodsFrom nationwide registries (the Norwegian Patient Registry and the Norwegian Prescription Database), we identified patients with AF with a first prescription of a NOAC between January 2013 and June 2015. Cox proportional-hazards analysis was used to identify the strongest risk factors for major or clinically relevant non-major (CRNM) bleeding. Based on these, a risk prediction score was derived. Discrimination was assessed with Harrel’s C-index. C-indexes for the modified Hypertension, Age, Stroke, Bleeding tendency/predisposition, Labile international normalised ratios, Elderly age, Drugs or alcohol excess (HAS-BLED), the Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation (ATRIA) and the Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT) scores were also calculated from the same cohort.ResultsAmong 21 248 NOAC-treated patients with a median follow-up time of 183 days, 1257 (5.9%) patients experienced a major or CRNM bleeding. Ten independent risk factors for bleeding were identified, which when included in a risk prediction model achieved a C-index of 0.68 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.70). A simplified score comprising three variables; age, history of bleeding and non-bleeding related hospitalisation within the last 12 months, yielded a c-index of 0.66 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.68). In the same cohort, the modified HAS-BLED, ATRIA and ORBIT scores achieved c-indexes of 0.62 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.63), 0.66 (95% CI 0.64 to 0.67) and 0.66 (95% CI 0.64 to 0.67), respectively.ConclusionsOur proposed simplified bleeding score could be a useful clinical tool for quick estimation of risk of bleeding in patients with AF treated with NOACs.


Author(s):  
Paulus Kirchhof ◽  
Sylvia Haas ◽  
Pierre Amarenco ◽  
Susanne Hess ◽  
Marc Lambelet ◽  
...  

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
F A Klok ◽  
K G Chu ◽  
L Valerio ◽  
S J Van Der Wall ◽  
S Barco ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Bleeding risk scores in atrial fibrillation (AF) are used to identify risk factors for bleeding but not to determine anticoagulant therapy since high bleeding risk strongly correlates to high risk of stroke. VTE-BLEED is a simple bleeding risk score (Klok FA Eur Respir J 2016) that predicts major bleeding (MB) in patients with venous thromboembolism, but has never been evaluated in AF. Aims To evaluate VTE-BLEED in AF and whether dabigatran dose reduction in VTE-BLEED high-risk patients would result in a lower incidence of MB and the composite endpoint of MB plus stroke/systemic embolism. Methods Assessment of VTE-BLEED in 18040 patients of the RE-LY trial (Connolly SJ NEJM 2009) that compared dabigatran (both 150mg BID and 110mg BID) to warfarin. The score was calibrated to fit the AF population. Hazard ratios (HR) were obtained for the VTE-BLEED high-risk patients randomized to dabigatran. The risk ratios for MB and the composite outcome of MB plus stroke/systemic embolism between dabigatran 150mg and 110mg were calculated for the VTE-BLEED high-risk group. Results The adapted VTE-BLEED score classified 4060 patients (22.5%) as high-risk. A high score indeed predicted MB in patients treated with dabigatran 150mg BID or 110mg BID, for HRs of 2.48 (95% CI 1.96–3.13) and 2.61 (95% CI 2.04–3.33), respectively. In VTE-BLEED high-risk patients, the risk ratio between the two dabigatran doses was 0.53 (95% CI 0.35–0.78) for MB and 0.55 (95% CI 0.38–0.79) for the composite outcome, both in favor of dabigatran 110mg BID (Figure 1). Compared to the current European label of dabigatran, application of VTE-BLEED to determine dabigatran dosing would result in a different dose for 21% of patients. Figure 1 Conclusions VTE-BLEED was validated for AF. Our data suggest that dabigatran dose reduction in VTE-BLEED bleed high-risk patients -in addition to targeting individual modifiable risk factors for bleeding- may lower the risk of MB and improve patient outcome. This finding could have important clinical implications but should be confirmed in future studies.


Author(s):  
Gene R Quinn ◽  
Daniel E Singer ◽  
Yuchiao Chang ◽  
Alan S Go ◽  
Leila Borowsky ◽  
...  

Background: Several studies suggest that SSRIs may increase bleeding risk and drug information guides warn about a potential interaction between warfarin and SSRIs. However, the actual association between warfarin, SSRI exposure, and bleeding risk has not been well-quantified. In addition, prior studies have not controlled for baseline bleeding risk or warfarin control. Objective: To assess the association between SSRI exposure and major hemorrhage events in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation taking warfarin. Methods: We used data from the ATRIA Study, a cohort of 13,559 adults with atrial fibrillation receiving care in a large integrated healthcare delivery system. The analysis was restricted to the 9186 patients who contributed follow-up time while taking warfarin. We assessed exposure to SSRIs using dispensing data from pharmacy databases. Additionally, we searched for exposure to tricyclic antidepressants (TCAs) as a control group. The primary outcome was hospitalization for major hemorrhage on warfarin, defined as fatal, hemorrhage into a critical anatomic space, or requiring transfusion of ≥ 2 units packed red blood cells. Clinical risk factors for hemorrhage were identified using administrative and computerized clinical databases and used to calculate an ATRIA bleeding risk score, a previously-developed measure of anticoagulation-associated bleeding risk. A multivariable Poisson regression model was then used to test the association between hemorrhage and SSRI or TCA exposure, adjusting for bleeding risk and time in an international normalized ratio (INR) range > 3. Results: We identified 461 major hemorrhages during a total of 32,888 person-years of follow-up on warfarin. Of these events, 45 events occurred during SSRI use, 12 events during TCA only use, and 404 events without either medication. Rates of hemorrhage were higher during periods of SSRI exposure compared with periods on no antidepressants (2.32 per 100 person-years vs. 1.35 per 100 person-years, p = <0.001). In contrast, rates of hemorrhage did not differ comparing TCA use to no antidepressants (1.30 per 100 person-years on TCAs, p = 0.93). The mean ATRIA bleeding risk score during SSRI exposure was higher than periods on no antidepressants (2.43 vs. 2.06, p<0.001); a higher bleeding risk score was also observed during TCA exposure (2.24 vs. 2.06, p<0.001). Exposure time while on SSRIs and TCAs was associated with more time where the INR > 3 (12.3% for SSRIs, 11.9% for TCAs, and 10.3% for neither, p<0.001). In a multivariable model adjusting for bleeding risk score and time with INRs > 3, SSRI exposure was associated with an increased rate of hemorrhage compared with no antidepressants (adjusted relative risk 1.60, 95% CI: 1.18-2.17), whereas TCAs were not associated with increased hemorrhage risk (adjusted relative risk 0.88, 95% CI: 0.50-1.57). Conclusions: The risk of major hemorrhage on warfarin was significantly higher during periods of SSRI therapy, but not TCA therapy, even after adjusting for bleeding risk factors and time in a supratherapeutic INR range. Closer monitoring of patients on SSRIs and anticoagulants should be considered.


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