Multi-population Mortality Modeling: When the Data is Too Much and Not Enough

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ko-Lun Kung ◽  
Richard D. MacMinn ◽  
Weiyu Kuo ◽  
Chenghsien Jason Tsai
Keyword(s):  
Population Mortality

scholarly journals Mandatory annuitization and money's worth: evidence from Singapore

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Joelle H. Fong ◽  
Jackie Li
Keyword(s):  
Expected Value ◽  
Longevity Risk ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
Population Mortality ◽  
Mortality Improvement ◽  
Life Annuities ◽  
Compulsory Purchase ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper examines the impact of uncertainties in the future trends of mortality on annuity values in Singapore's compulsory purchase market. We document persistent population mortality improvement trends over the past few decades, which underscores the importance of longevity risk in this market. Using the money's worth framework, we find that the life annuities delivered expected payouts valued at 1.019–1.185 (0.973–1.170) per dollar of annuity premium for males (females). Even in a low mortality improvement scenario, the annuities provide an expected value exceeding 0.950. This suggests that participants in the national annuity pool have access to attractively priced annuities, regardless of sex, product, and premium invested.

scholarly journals 778 Management of Colorectal Anastomotic leaks: The East of England Experience

2021 ◽  
Vol 108 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Aker ◽  
A Askari ◽  
M Rabie ◽  
M Aly ◽  
S Adegbola ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Mortality ◽  
Initial Treatment ◽  
Surgical Intervention ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Treatment Modalities ◽  
Anastomotic Leaks ◽  
Consensus Approach ◽  
Multi Centre Study ◽  
Population Mortality ◽  
Radiological Intervention

Abstract Introduction Colorectal anastomotic leaks (AL) are an unfortunate occurrence and are associated with a high mortality. The aim of this multi-centre study is to explore the different management strategies used and compare outcomes in the management of AL. Method All patients who had an AL were included at seven hospitals across the East of England. Morbidity, mortality, and survival were compared across the different management strategies. Results A total of 247 consecutive patients were included of which 60.3% were male and the median age was 68 (IQR 57-77). Half of patients were initially managed conservatively, a further 10.5% had a radiological procedure. 39.7% required surgery as an initial treatment. Of those who initially did not have a surgical intervention (n = 149), 10.7% (n = 16/149) eventually required laparotomy. Ultimately, 42.7% (n = 106/248) required a laparotomy. The 30- and 90-day across the entire population mortality were 3.6% and 4.9% respectively. There were no significant differences in mortality or long-terms survival between the different initial treatment modalities. Conclusions Despite initial conservative, antibiotic and radiological intervention being successful in the majority of patients, two out of five patients will still require a laparotomy. A consensus approach is required to standardise management in these difficult scenarios.

scholarly journals A Two-Population Mortality Model to Assess Longevity Basis Risk

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 44
Author(s):  
Selin Özen ◽  
Şule Şahin
Keyword(s):  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Reference Population ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Basis Risk ◽  
Mortality Model ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Population Mortality ◽  
Mortality Jumps ◽  
The Impact

Index-based hedging solutions are used to transfer the longevity risk to the capital markets. However, mismatches between the liability of the hedger and the hedging instrument cause longevity basis risk. Therefore, an appropriate two-population model to measure and assess longevity basis risk is required. In this paper, we aim to construct a two-population mortality model to provide an effective hedge against the basis risk. The reference population is modelled by using the Lee–Carter model with the renewal process and exponential jumps, and the dynamics of the book population are specified. The analysis based on the U.K. mortality data indicate that the proposed model for the reference population and the common age effect model for the book population provide a better fit compared to the other models considered in the paper. Different two-population models are used to investigate the impact of sampling risk on the index-based hedge, as well as to analyse the risk reduction regarding hedge effectiveness. The results show that the proposed model provides a significant risk reduction when mortality jumps and sampling risk are taken into account.

scholarly journals Cancer prevention and control: alarming challenges in China

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 117-127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ann M. Bode ◽  
Zigang Dong ◽  
Hongyang Wang
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Breast Cancers ◽  
Excessive Alcohol Consumption ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Heavy Smoking ◽  
Treatment And Prevention ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Urbanization In China ◽  
Population Mortality

Abstract China is geographically the third largest country in the world and the most populated low-to-middle-income country. Cancer incidence and mortality rates for some cancers in the USA and European countries have steadily decreased over the last decades, whereas the incidence and mortality of certain cancers in China have been increasing at an alarming speed. Rapid industrialization and urbanization in China have been accompanied by incredible changes in lifestyle and environment combined with an aging population. Mortality caused by lung, colorectal and breast cancers has been steadily increasing, whereas cancer mortality from gastric, esophageal and cervical tumors has tended to decrease. Similar to what has occurred in the United States, unhealthy lifestyles in China, including heavy smoking and poor diet combined with pollution, have contributed to increased cancer risk. China is facing many challenges in cancer treatment and prevention for the general population. The major areas that need to be addressed in the control of cancer in China include cancers associated with environmental pollution, tobacco use, occupational carcinogens, infection, excessive alcohol consumption, dietary deficiencies and obesity. In this perspective, we review the problems in each area and suggest ideas for future directions in cancer research and strategies and actions to reduce the incidence of cancer in China.

Features of the course of coronavirus infection in patients with diabetes mellitus

2022 ◽  
pp. 18-21
Author(s):  
Vladimir Anatolievich Klimov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Diabetes Mellitus ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Human Population ◽  
Fatal Outcome ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Adverse Outcomes ◽  
Concomitant Disease ◽  
Patients With Diabetes ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Population Mortality

Diabetesmellitus, overweight and the age of a patient over 65 years old are identified by clinicians as themain factors that can complicate the course of the coronavirus infection and increase the likelihood of fatal outcome. Although in the general human population mortality from coronavirus fluctuateswithin 3–5 %, sometimes very significantly differing in individual countries, this level can reach 15–25 % among patientswith diabetes, especially for those receiving insulin therapy. Diabetes mellitus as a concomitant disease in COVID-19 is considered one of the most significant risk factors for the development of adverse outcomes due to a more severe course of infection in conditions of hyperglycemia and other aggravating factors.

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