Voting as a habit in new democracies – Evidence from Poland

2013 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-107 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikolaj Czesnik ◽  
Marta Zerkowska-Balas ◽  
Michal Kotnarowski
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
New Democracies ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Age Cohorts ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Democratic Election ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Moment

Among the wide range of theories explaining why some people vote and others do not, one is recently gaining particular popularity. This is the theory of voting as a habit (e.g. Plutzer, 2002; Franklin, 2004; Hooghe, 2004). The empirical evidence supporting this theory covers onlyWestern democracies, so the following question might be asked: is this pattern universal? In the case of old democracies, voting is a habit acquired gradually in a process which starts at the moment of the very first election one can cast the ballot. In new democracies the situation is different, as we can pinpoint the starting moment (first democratic election), which is the same for different voters and thus different age cohorts. In this paper we investigate voting as a habit in new democracies, using data from the Polish National Election Study. We find that voting in Poland has some habitual aspect; repeated voting brings about a (sort of) habit, which has an intrinsic, irreducible effect on voter turnout. We also find that habit of voting is formed likewise in all age cohorts.

Competing Visions of Parental Roles and Ideological Constraint

2006 ◽  
Vol 100 (2) ◽  
pp. 249-263 ◽  
Author(s):  
DAVID C. BARKER ◽  
JAMES D. TINNICK
Keyword(s):  
Power Relations ◽  
The United States ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Political Values ◽  
Parental Roles ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
Children And Parents ◽  
George Lakoff ◽  
Proper Power ◽  
Using Data

This paper explores the etiology of ideological constraint in the United States. In an effort to gain understanding of the ideational elements of political socialization, we concentrate on a provocative new theory put forward by cognitive linguist George Lakoff. Lakoff argues that many people reflexively envision proper power relations between citizens and government based on their understanding of proper power relations between children and parents: “nurturant” visions of parental roles engender egalitarian and humanitarian political values, whereas “disciplinarian” visions of proper parenting predict political individualism and traditionalism. Using data obtained from the 2000 National Election Study, we consider the empirical mettle of this account.

scholarly journals That Woman from Michigan: How Gender Resentment Shapes the Efficacy of Stay-at-Home Policies

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 983-990
Author(s):  
Nicole Kalaf-Hughes ◽  
Debra Leiter
Keyword(s):  
Government Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Female Leaders ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
American National Election Study ◽  
Using Data ◽  
At Home

AbstractThe United States has the highest number of COVID-19 cases, yet many Americans have responded indifferently toward policies designed to combat the spread of the virus. While nearly all 50 states have implemented some type of stay-at-home policy to encourage social distancing, there has been high variation in the degree of compliance. We argue that this variance is partly driven by gender resentment. Gender resentment reduces trust in female political leaders and thus decreases compliance with government policy and recommendations. Using data from SafeGraph and the 2016 American National Election Study, we demonstrate that the effect of stay-at-home policies on social distancing is reduced when gender resentment increases in states with female leaders. However, when gender resentment is low, there is no difference in the effect of policies on behavior. This research has important implications for understanding unseen barriers that can mediate the efficacy of female political leaders.

scholarly journals Growing Social Inequalities in Youth Civic Engagement? Evidence from the National Election Study

2012 ◽  
Vol 45 (03) ◽  
pp. 456-461 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Wray-Lake ◽  
Daniel Hart
Keyword(s):  
Civic Engagement ◽  
Social Inequalities ◽  
National Election ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Youth Civic Engagement ◽  
Political Activities ◽  
Class Differences ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Over Time

AbstractSocial class differences in civic engagement persist for both youth and adults. Although empirical evidence is mixed, several recent social changes pertaining to youth suggest that social inequalities in civic engagement may be growing over time for young people. Using data from the National Election Study, we compared trends for youth and older adults of varying education levels and tested the hypothesis of an increasing educational disparity in youth political participation. Results for voting supported our expectations: declines over time were found for less-educated youth only. Unexpectedly, participation in other political activities for more-educated youth declined more over time compared to other groups. Our findings highlight the need to create equal opportunities for youth civic engagement across social groups.

Israeli Attitudes on Synagogue and State

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 122-147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bethany Blackstone ◽  
Tetsuya Matsubayashi ◽  
Elizabeth A. Oldmixon
Keyword(s):  
Social Groups ◽  
Public Life ◽  
The State ◽  
Religious Communities ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Religious Observance ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Mass Attitudes ◽  
Mass Level

AbstractThis article investigates the attitudes of Israeli Jews on the proper relationship between religion and the state, using data from the 2009 Israeli National Election Study. Specifically we test whether association with the secular or religious communities structures mass attitudes on this important dimension of Israeli politics. Mass level disagreement in this area dates back to the pre-state period and represents a longstanding cleavage in Zionist thought and Israeli politics. We find that mass attitudes toward religion and public life are associated with religious observance and identification with religious parties and social groups.

Internal and External Effects on the Accuracy of NES Turnout: Reply

2003 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 193-195 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barry C. Burden
Keyword(s):  
Selection Bias ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
National Election ◽  
Election Study ◽  
External Effects ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
Voting Age ◽  
Panel Effects

In an earlier issue of this journal I brought attention to the fact that estimates of voter turnout in U.S. presidential elections from the National Election Study (NES) series have been increasingly biased. Although researchers had already noted that the NES overestimated turnout, I was concerned with the growing severity of the problem. While admitting that other factors were at work, my explanation centered on the representativeness of surveys, in particular that selection bias in the sample is correlated with the likelihood of voting (Burden 2000). Martinez (2003) and McDonald (2003) offer three possible additions to my argument. First, panel effects are responsible for particularly egregious discrepancies in a few presidential elections, particularly in the 1996 survey. Second, official turnout statistics that rely on the Voting Age Population (VAP) are themselves biased and lack perfect comparability with the NES. Third, the degree of misreporting might also depend on actual voter turnout.

Great Debates: The Televised Leadership Debates of 1979

1985 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 135-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence LeDuc ◽  
Richard Price
Keyword(s):  
Potential Effect ◽  
Voting Behaviour ◽  
Direct Effects ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Party Leaders ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
Public Exposure ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Voting Decisions

AbstractThis article examines the structure and setting of Encounter '79, the televised debates between party leaders which took place a week prior to the 1979 federal election, and considers the possible impact of this event on individual voting behaviour and on the outcome of that election. Using data from the 1979 National Election Study to measure exposure to the debates and perceptions of their content, it is argued that much of the potential effect is limited by public exposure to other political information through television and by the tendencies of such events to reinforce existing attitudes. The direct effects, if any, are more likely to be on participation than on voting decisions.

So Many Questions, So Little Time: Integrating Adaptive Inventories into Public Opinion Research

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 667-690
Author(s):  
Jacob M Montgomery ◽  
Erin L Rossiter
Keyword(s):  
Computerized Adaptive Testing ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Testing Methods ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
American National Election Study ◽  
Simulation And Experiment ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Using Data

Abstract One of the most difficult tasks facing survey researchers is balancing the imperative to keep surveys short with the need to measure important concepts accurately. Not only are long batteries prohibitively expensive but lengthy surveys can also lead to less informative answers from respondents. Yet, scholars often wish to measure traits that require a multi-item battery. To resolve these contradicting constraints, we propose the use of adaptive inventories. This approach uses computerized adaptive testing methods to minimize the number of questions each respondent must answer while maximizing the accuracy of the resulting measurement. We provide evidence supporting the utility of adaptive inventories through an empirically informed simulation study, an experimental study, and a detailed case study using data from the 2016 American National Election Study (ANES) Pilot. The simulation and experiment illustrate the superior performance of adaptive inventories relative to fixed-reduced batteries in terms of precision and accuracy. The ANES analysis serves as an illustration of how adaptive inventories can be developed and fielded and also validates an adaptive inventory with a nationally representative sample. Critically, we provide extensive software tools that allow researchers to incorporate adaptive inventories into their own surveys.

Voter Turnout and the National Election Studies

2000 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 389-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barry C. Burden
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
National Election ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Bivariate Statistics ◽  
Question Wording ◽  
Linear Fashion ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
House Election ◽  
Election Studies

Though the overreporting of voter turnout in the National Election Study (NES) is widely known, this article shows that the problem has become increasingly severe. The gap between NES and official estimates of presidential election turnout has more than doubled in a nearly linear fashion, from 11 points in 1952 to 24 points in 1996. This occurred because official voter turnout fell steadily from 1960 onward, while NES turnout did not. In contrast, the bias in House election turnout is always smaller and has increased only marginally. Using simple bivariate statistics, I find that worsening presidential turnout estimates are the result mostly of declining response rates rather than instrumentation, question wording changes, or other factors. As more peripheral voters have eluded interviewers in recent years, the sample became more saturated with self-reported voters, thus inflating reported turnout.

A Propensity Score Reweighting Approach to Estimating the Partisan Effects of Full Turnout in American Presidential Elections

2004 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas L. Brunell ◽  
John DiNardo
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Compulsory Voting ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Eventual Outcome

Borrowing an approach from the literature on the economics of discrimination, we estimate the impact of nonvoters on the outcome of presidential elections from 1952–2000 using data from the National Election Study (NES). Our estimates indicate that nonvoters are, on average, slightly more likely to support the Democratic Party. Of the 13 presidential elections between 1952 and 2000 we find no change in the eventual outcome of the election with two possible exceptions: 1980 and 2000. Thus our results are not all that dissimilar from other research on participation. Higher turnout in the form of compulsory voting would not radically change the partisan distribution of the vote. When elections are sufficiently close, however, a two percentage point increase may suffice to affect the outcome. Limitations of the NES data we use suggest that our estimates underestimate the impact of nonparticipation. We also compare our method with other econometric techniques. Finally, using our findings we speculate as to why the Democratic Party fails to undertake widespread “get out the vote” or registration drives.

Why Does the American National Election Study Overestimate Voter Turnout?

2018 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 193-207 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Jackman ◽  
Bradley Spahn
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
National Election ◽  
Nonresponse Bias ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
American National Election Study ◽  
The Face ◽  
First Time

Surveys are a key tool for understanding political behavior, but they are subject to biases that render their estimates about the frequency of socially desirable behaviors inaccurate. For decades the American National Election Study (ANES) has overestimated voter turnout, though the causes of this persistent bias are poorly understood. The face-to-face component of the 2012 ANES produced a turnout estimate at least 13 points higher than the benchmark voting-eligible population turnout rate. We consider three explanations for this overestimate in the survey: nonresponse bias, over-reporting and the possibility that the ANES constitutes an inadvertent mobilization treatment. Analysis of turnout data supplied by voter file vendors allows the three phenomena to be measured for the first time in a single survey. We find that over-reporting is the largest contributor, responsible for six percentage points of the turnout overestimate, while nonresponse bias and mobilization account for an additional 4 and 3 percentage points, respectively.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document