A novel risk evaluation method for fire and explosion accidents in oil depots using bow-tie analysis and risk matrix analysis method based on cloud model theory

Author(s):  
Shuyi Xie ◽  
Shaohua Dong ◽  
Yinuo Chen ◽  
Yujie Peng ◽  
Xincai Li
2011 ◽  
Vol 55-57 ◽  
pp. 924-928 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Mao ◽  
Yan Long Cao

Robust design is less sensitive to the manufacturing variation and its demand for controlling the manufacturing variation can be reduced. The existing robust design techniques are limited to solve individual synthesis problems, and these methods seldom consider the problem of tolerance sensitivity. This paper presents a method for tolerance sensitivity design and evaluation. First, tolerance sensitivity robustness is analyzed and the tolerance sensitivity robust design models are developed. Then, the matrix analysis method is introduced to evaluate complex assembly relationship among design functions and parameters. The results show that compared with origional mothod, the proposed method is siutble and reliable.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Lijia Chen ◽  
Yanfei Tian

Uncertainty makes the risk evaluation of complex water transportation systems (WTSs) a difficult task. To achieve reasonable results while accounting for uncertainty, the risk evaluation of nautical navigational environments (NNEts) is often based on classical cloud model theory. This study proposes the concept of a risk cloud model (RCM) for NNEt evaluation and uses a fuzzy statistics-based computational approach to obtain the RCM parameters. As a case study, the proposed RCM method was applied to the risk evaluation of the Qiongzhou Strait. The performance of the proposed method was compared to those of a fuzzy theory-based method and an earlier proposed simplified algorithm. The results of the case study demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed method along with several key advantages. First, the method could deal with uncertainty, take advantage of multichannel information, and evaluate risk features. Second, the RCM droplets intuitively displayed the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of risk levels, which facilitated understanding and analysis. Third, it showed a good sensitivity to ensure the refinement of evaluation results. The proposed method offered an improved approach to NNEt risk evaluation under uncertain conditions.


2012 ◽  
Vol 590 ◽  
pp. 287-296
Author(s):  
Bao Zhong Wu ◽  
Jing Qiu ◽  
Guo Xi Li ◽  
Jing Zhong Gong ◽  
Xin Yin

Tolerance characteristics have an important influence on products dynamic properties. To realize dynamic properties oriented tolerance analysis and design of mechanical products, a data-driven based tolerance analysis method was proposed. Firstly, based on the cloud model theory, an assemble cloud model was established, and a new method of assembly data processing and knowledge mining was proposed. Secondly, the assembly cloud model was used to analysis the measured data from practical assembly process and search the alignment laws. Finally, using the above mentioned methods, product key parts tolerance was analyzed and adjusted, and the product quality consistency could be improved dramatically.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 844
Author(s):  
Young-Joong Ahn ◽  
Yong-Ung Yu ◽  
Jong-Kwan Kim

Fire and explosion accidents occur frequently in tankers because they transport large quantities of dangerous cargo. To prevent fire and explosion accidents, it is necessary to analyze factors that cause accidents and their effects. In this study, factors that cause fire and explosion accidents were classified using the 4M disaster analysis method, and each factor’s effect on the accident was analyzed using fault tree analysis (FTA). First, the unsafe tank atmosphere environment was identified as a primary cause of fire and explosion accidents in tankers, and the underlying causes of these accidents were investigated. The probability of underlying causes leading to primary causes was derived using an expert survey. The results showed that management and media factors had a greater impact on the unsafe tank atmosphere environment than human factors. To prevent fire and explosion accidents, it is necessary to ensure sufficient working and resting times for seafarers and compliance with procedures and work guidelines. A generalization of the results of present and future studies will enable the identification of the cause and preventive measures for fire and explosion accidents in tankers. Furthermore, this will reduce accidents in tankers and contribute to future safety management measures of ships and companies.


2014 ◽  
Vol 884-885 ◽  
pp. 162-165
Author(s):  
Bo Mu ◽  
Lin Wang ◽  
Ting Chun Wang ◽  
Xiu Xiang Wang ◽  
Jian Gang Zhu

The DOW’s Fire and Explosion Index (F&EI) was used to assess the chemical enterprise production safety risk. This article used methanol synthesis unit as an example, according to the characteristic of the hazardous chemical and process of the fertilizer production, conducted risk evaluation of the production unit by Fire and Explosion danger index evaluation method, and proposed suitable safety protection measures aim at the evaluation results.


2014 ◽  
Vol 501-504 ◽  
pp. 376-379
Author(s):  
Xiao Guo Chen

This article uses the extenics and fuzzy hierarchy analysis method,on the slope stability analysis method of uncertainty is improved.At the same time,on the measured data report AnTaiBao open-pit mine for practical engineering,using the method of the north, a risk evaluation is made on the stability of slope area.Through the engineering example of calculation shows that,in this paper, the risk evaluation method is reliable and can be used to guide the slope mining design.


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