The prospect of predictive testing for personal risk: attitudes and decision making

1998 ◽  
Vol 36 (6) ◽  
pp. 599-619 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abigail L. Wroe ◽  
Paul M. Salkovskis ◽  
Katharine A. Rimes
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Predictive Testing ◽  
Risk Attitudes ◽  
Personal Risk

scholarly journals A Kind of Risk-Sensitive Group Decision-Making Based on MDP

2012 ◽  
Vol 6-7 ◽  
pp. 267-272
Author(s):  
Ming Shan You ◽  
Wei Zeng ◽  
Hong Tao Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Utility Function ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Risk Attitude ◽  
Risk Attitudes ◽  
Personal Risk ◽  
Risk Sensitive ◽  
Sensitive Group

One-switch utility function is used to describe how the risk attitude of a decision maker changes with his wealth level. In this paper additive decision rule is used for the aggregation of decision member’s utility which is represented by one-switch utility function. Based on Markov decision processes (MDP) and group utility, a dynamic, multi-stages and risk sensitive group decision model is proposed. The proposed model augments the state of MDP with wealth level, so the policy of the model is defined as an action executed in a state and a wealth level interval. A backward-induction algorithm is given to solve the optimal policy for the model. Numerical examples show that personal risk attitude has a great influence on group decision-making when personal risk attitudes of members are different, while the weights of members play a critical role when personal risk attitudes of members are similar.

An approach to decision making with interval-valued complex Pythagorean fuzzy model for evaluating personal risk of mental patients

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-26
Author(s):  
Lei Wang ◽  
Xindong Peng
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Fuzzy Model ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Evaluation Process ◽  
Pythagorean Fuzzy Set ◽  
Mental Patients ◽  
Personal Risk ◽  
Multiple Attribute ◽  
Uncertainty Information ◽  
Interval Valued

It is prominent important for managers to assess the personal risk of mental patients. The evaluation process refers to numerous indexes, and the evaluation values are general portrayed by uncertainty information. In order to conveniently model the complicated uncertainty information in realistic decision making, interval-valued complex Pythagorean fuzzy set is proposed. Firstly, with the aid of Einstein t-norm and t-conorm, four fundamental operations for interval-valued complex Pythagorean fuzzy number (IVCPFN) are constructed along with some operational properties. Subsequently, according to these proposed operations, the weighted average and weighted geometric forms of aggregation operators are initiated for fusing IVCPFNs, and their anticipated properties are also examined. In addition, a multiple attribute decision making issue is examined under the framework of IVCPFNs when employing the novel suggested operators. Ultimately, an example regarding the assessment on personal risk of mental patients is provided to reveal the practicability of the designed approach, and the attractiveness of our results is further found through comparing with other extant approaches.The main novelty of the coined approach is that it not only can preserve the original assessment information adequately by utilizing the IVCPFNs, but also can aggregate IVCPFNs effectively.

scholarly journals Diabetes, hyperglycemia and its role in fitness for work

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirsaeed Attarchi ◽  
Seyed Mohammad Seyedmehdi
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Review Article ◽  
Diabetic Patients ◽  
Efficacy And Safety ◽  
Ability To Work ◽  
Personal Risk ◽  
Fitness For Work ◽  
The World ◽  
Prevalent Disease

Introduction: Diabetes is a prevalent disease in our country and in the world. Hyperglycemia complications can impact on ability to work. Decision making about fitness for work in diabetic patients is important and complicated. The aim of this study was assessment scientific evidence and present suitable approach for fitness for work in diabetic patients. Methods: In this review article the last evidence from Scopus, Science Direct, Pub Med, Google Scholar, SID and Magiran Data Base was evaluated and different aspects of fitness for work in hyperglycemia of diabetics of diabetic patients was analyzed. Results: Assessment of personal risk and diabetic patient abilities in comparison with inherent requirements of the job is important in decision making about fitness for work. Most of these patients can work and have acceptable efficacy and safety in most of the jobs. Conclusion: In most of job situations, with support of the employer and job environment modifications, diabetic patients can work with acceptable efficacy and safety.

scholarly journals Cognitive bias, decision styles, and risk attitudes in decision making and DSS

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 63-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gloria Phillips-Wren ◽  
Daniel J. Power ◽  
Manuel Mora
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cognitive Bias ◽  
Risk Attitudes ◽  
Decision Styles

scholarly journals Chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) Are More Averse to Social Than Nonsocial Risk

2018 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 105-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah E. Calcutt ◽  
Darby Proctor ◽  
Sarah M. Berman ◽  
Frans B. M. de Waal
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Pan Troglodytes ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Trust Game ◽  
Risk Attitudes ◽  
Social Risk ◽  
Risky Decision ◽  
Emotional Factors ◽  
Economic Decision Making ◽  
Tit For Tat

Social risk is a domain of risk in which the costs, benefits, and uncertainty of an action depend on the behavior of another individual. Humans overvalue the costs of a socially risky decision when compared with that of purely economic risk. Here, we played a trust game with 8 female captive chimpanzees ( Pan troglodytes) to determine whether this bias exists in one of our closest living relatives. A correlation between an individual’s social- and nonsocial-risk attitudes indicated stable individual variation, yet the chimpanzees were more averse to social than nonsocial risk. This indicates differences between social and economic decision making and emotional factors in social risk taking. In another experiment using the same paradigm, subjects played with several partners with whom they had varying relationships. Preexisting relationships did not impact the subjects’ choices. Instead, the apes used a tit-for-tat strategy and were influenced by the outcome of early interactions with a partner.

Bayesian Analysis of Overprediction of Insanity

1974 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 207-214
Author(s):  
R. E. Peterson ◽  
K. K. Seo
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Bayesian Analysis ◽  
Loss Function ◽  
Violent Behavior ◽  
Decision Making Under Uncertainty ◽  
Natural Consequence ◽  
Rational Person ◽  
Personal Risk ◽  
States Of Nature ◽  
As If

Decision-making under uncertainty is visualized as a two-action game against nature. The psychiatrist is the player and has two actions from which to choose: predict violent behavior or predict sanity. The two states of nature are (i) the accused is in fact guilty and (ii) the accused is in fan innocent. The psychiatrist acts as if he evaluates a loss function which is such that overprediction of violent behavior is the natural consequence of a rational person who wishes to minimize his personal risk. Society's loss function, however, differs from the psychiatrist's loss function to such an extent that a rational society would want to underpredict violent behavior in order to minimize the risk of false confinements. It is suggested that the player of this game (the psychiatrist) has been ill-advisedly chosen.

scholarly journals Outcome uncertainty influences probability perception and risk attitudes

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Ward Elston ◽  
Ian Grant Mackenzie ◽  
Victor Mittelstädt
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Probabilistic Inference ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Risk Attitudes ◽  
Maximal Effect ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Novel Theory ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
Gain And Loss

Subjective inferences of probability play a critical role in decision-making. How we learn about choice options, through description or experience, influences how we perceive their likelihoods, an effect known as the description–experience (DE) gap. Classically, the DE gap details how low probability described options are perceptually inflated as compared to equiprobable experience ones. However, these studies assessed probability perception relative to a ‘sure-bet’ option, and it remained unclear whether the DE gap occurs when humans directly trade-off equiprobable description and experience options and whether choice patterns are influenced by the prospects of gain and loss. We addressed these questions through two experiments where humans chose between description and experience options with equal probabilities of either winning or losing points. Contrary to early studies, we found that gain-seeking participants preferred experience options across all probability levels and, by contrast, loss-mitigating participants avoided the experience options across all probability levels, with a maximal effect at 50%. Our results suggest that the experience options were perceived as riskier than descriptive options due to the greater uncertainty associated with their outcomes. We conclude by outlining a novel theory of probabilistic inference where outcome uncertainty modulates probability perception and risk attitudes.

scholarly journals When Helping Is Risky: The Behavioral and Neurobiological Trade-off of Social and Risk Preferences

2021 ◽  
pp. 095679762110159
Author(s):  
Jörg Gross ◽  
Nadira S. Faber ◽  
Andreas Kappes ◽  
Anne-Marie Nussberger ◽  
Philip J. Cowen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Preferences ◽  
Risk Preferences ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Acceptable Risk ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Personal Risk ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Medical Volunteers ◽  
The Brain

Helping other people can entail risks for the helper. For example, when treating infectious patients, medical volunteers risk their own health. In such situations, decisions to help should depend on the individual’s valuation of others’ well-being (social preferences) and the degree of personal risk the individual finds acceptable (risk preferences). We investigated how these distinct preferences are psychologically and neurobiologically integrated when helping is risky. We used incentivized decision-making tasks (Study 1; N = 292 adults) and manipulated dopamine and norepinephrine levels in the brain by administering methylphenidate, atomoxetine, or a placebo (Study 2; N = 154 adults). We found that social and risk preferences are independent drivers of risky helping. Methylphenidate increased risky helping by selectively altering risk preferences rather than social preferences. Atomoxetine influenced neither risk preferences nor social preferences and did not affect risky helping. This suggests that methylphenidate-altered dopamine concentrations affect helping decisions that entail a risk to the helper.

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