AN EFFECTIVE BIAS-CORRECTED BAGGING METHOD FOR THE VALUATION OF LARGE VARIABLE ANNUITY PORTFOLIOS

2020 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 853-871
Author(s):  
Hyukjun Gweon ◽  
Shu Li ◽  
Rogemar Mamon
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Market Values ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Fair Market ◽  
Computationally Intensive ◽  
Bagging Method

AbstractTo evaluate a large portfolio of variable annuity (VA) contracts, many insurance companies rely on Monte Carlo simulation, which is computationally intensive. To address this computational challenge, machine learning techniques have been adopted in recent years to estimate the fair market values (FMVs) of a large number of contracts. It is shown that bootstrapped aggregation (bagging), one of the most popular machine learning algorithms, performs well in valuing VA contracts using related attributes. In this article, we highlight the presence of prediction bias of bagging and use the bias-corrected (BC) bagging approach to reduce the bias and thus improve the predictive performance. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of BC bagging as compared with bagging, boosting, and model points in terms of prediction accuracy.

scholarly journals An Approach for Variable Selection and Prediction Model for Estimating the Risk-Based Capital (RBC) Based on Machine Learning Algorithms

Risks ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 13
Author(s):  
Jaewon Park ◽  
Minsoo Shin
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Business Performance ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Learning Techniques

The risk-based capital (RBC) ratio, an insurance company’s financial soundness system, evaluates the capital adequacy needed to withstand unexpected losses. Therefore, continuous institutional improvement has been made to monitor the financial solvency of companies and protect consumers’ rights, and improvement of solvency systems has been researched. The primary purpose of this study is to find a set of important predictors to estimate the RBC ratio of life insurance companies in a large number of variables (1891), which includes crucial finance and management indices collected from all Korean insurers quarterly under regulation for transparent management information. This study employs a combination of Machine learning techniques: Random Forest algorithms and the Bayesian Regulatory Neural Network (BRNN). The combination of Random Forest algorithms and BRNN predicts the next period’s RBC ratio better than the conventional statistical method, which uses ordinary least-squares regression (OLS). As a result of the findings from Machine learning techniques, a set of important predictors is found within three categories: liabilities and expenses, other financial predictors, and predictors from business performance. The dataset of 23 companies with 1891 variables was used in this study from March 2008 to December 2018 with quarterly updates for each year.

Using Machine Learning Algorithms on Prediction of Stock Price

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 84-99
Author(s):  
Li-Pang Chen
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Historical Database ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

In this paper, we investigate analysis and prediction of the time-dependent data. We focus our attention on four different stocks are selected from Yahoo Finance historical database. To build up models and predict the future stock price, we consider three different machine learning techniques including Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Support Vector Regression (SVR). By treating close price, open price, daily low, daily high, adjusted close price, and volume of trades as predictors in machine learning methods, it can be shown that the prediction accuracy is improved.

A Comparative Study of Different Machine Learning Algorithms for Disease Prediction

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (7) ◽  
pp. 172
Author(s):  
Anantvir Singh Romana
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Subsequent Treatment ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Disease Prediction ◽  
Classification Problems ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Neural Network Classifiers ◽  
Diagnostic Detection

Accurate diagnostic detection of the disease in a patient is critical and may alter the subsequent treatment and increase the chances of survival rate. Machine learning techniques have been instrumental in disease detection and are currently being used in various classification problems due to their accurate prediction performance. Various techniques may provide different desired accuracies and it is therefore imperative to use the most suitable method which provides the best desired results. This research seeks to provide comparative analysis of Support Vector Machine, Naïve bayes, J48 Decision Tree and neural network classifiers breast cancer and diabetes datsets.

Application of Machine Learning Techniques to Predict Binding Affinity for Drug Targets: A Study of Cyclin-Dependent Kinase 2

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 253-265 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriela Bitencourt-Ferreira ◽  
Amauri Duarte da Silva ◽  
Walter Filgueira de Azevedo
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Binding Affinity ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Supervised Machine Learning ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Scoring Functions ◽  
Cyclin Dependent Kinase ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Background: The elucidation of the structure of cyclin-dependent kinase 2 (CDK2) made it possible to develop targeted scoring functions for virtual screening aimed to identify new inhibitors for this enzyme. CDK2 is a protein target for the development of drugs intended to modulate cellcycle progression and control. Such drugs have potential anticancer activities. Objective: Our goal here is to review recent applications of machine learning methods to predict ligand- binding affinity for protein targets. To assess the predictive performance of classical scoring functions and targeted scoring functions, we focused our analysis on CDK2 structures. Methods: We have experimental structural data for hundreds of binary complexes of CDK2 with different ligands, many of them with inhibition constant information. We investigate here computational methods to calculate the binding affinity of CDK2 through classical scoring functions and machine- learning models. Results: Analysis of the predictive performance of classical scoring functions available in docking programs such as Molegro Virtual Docker, AutoDock4, and Autodock Vina indicated that these methods failed to predict binding affinity with significant correlation with experimental data. Targeted scoring functions developed through supervised machine learning techniques showed a significant correlation with experimental data. Conclusion: Here, we described the application of supervised machine learning techniques to generate a scoring function to predict binding affinity. Machine learning models showed superior predictive performance when compared with classical scoring functions. Analysis of the computational models obtained through machine learning could capture essential structural features responsible for binding affinity against CDK2.

scholarly journals Feasibility of Machine Learning Algorithms for Predicting the Deformation of Anodic Titanium Films by Modulating Anodization Processes

Materials ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 1089
Author(s):  
Sung-Hee Kim ◽  
Chanyoung Jeong
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Multiclass Classification ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Smart Manufacturing ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Experimental Conditions ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Tio2 Nanostructures

This study aims to demonstrate the feasibility of applying eight machine learning algorithms to predict the classification of the surface characteristics of titanium oxide (TiO2) nanostructures with different anodization processes. We produced a total of 100 samples, and we assessed changes in TiO2 nanostructures’ thicknesses by performing anodization. We successfully grew TiO2 films with different thicknesses by one-step anodization in ethylene glycol containing NH4F and H2O at applied voltage differences ranging from 10 V to 100 V at various anodization durations. We found that the thicknesses of TiO2 nanostructures are dependent on anodization voltages under time differences. Therefore, we tested the feasibility of applying machine learning algorithms to predict the deformation of TiO2. As the characteristics of TiO2 changed based on the different experimental conditions, we classified its surface pore structure into two categories and four groups. For the classification based on granularity, we assessed layer creation, roughness, pore creation, and pore height. We applied eight machine learning techniques to predict classification for binary and multiclass classification. For binary classification, random forest and gradient boosting algorithm had relatively high performance. However, all eight algorithms had scores higher than 0.93, which signifies high prediction on estimating the presence of pore. In contrast, decision tree and three ensemble methods had a relatively higher performance for multiclass classification, with an accuracy rate greater than 0.79. The weakest algorithm used was k-nearest neighbors for both binary and multiclass classifications. We believe that these results show that we can apply machine learning techniques to predict surface quality improvement, leading to smart manufacturing technology to better control color appearance, super-hydrophobicity, super-hydrophilicity or batter efficiency.

scholarly journals Heart disease prediction using machine learning techniques : a survey

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2.8) ◽  
pp. 684 ◽  
Author(s):  
V V. Ramalingam ◽  
Ayantan Dandapath ◽  
M Karthik Raja
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Complex Data ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Vector Machines ◽  
Supervised Learning Algorithms ◽  
Life Threatening

Heart related diseases or Cardiovascular Diseases (CVDs) are the main reason for a huge number of death in the world over the last few decades and has emerged as the most life-threatening disease, not only in India but in the whole world. So, there is a need of reliable, accurate and feasible system to diagnose such diseases in time for proper treatment. Machine Learning algorithms and techniques have been applied to various medical datasets to automate the analysis of large and complex data. Many researchers, in recent times, have been using several machine learning techniques to help the health care industry and the professionals in the diagnosis of heart related diseases. This paper presents a survey of various models based on such algorithms and techniques andanalyze their performance. Models based on supervised learning algorithms such as Support Vector Machines (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbour (KNN), NaïveBayes, Decision Trees (DT), Random Forest (RF) and ensemble models are found very popular among the researchers.

scholarly journals Toward Palmprint Recognition Methodology Based Machine Learning Techniques

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
M. M. Ata ◽  
K. M. Elgamily ◽  
M. A. Mohamed
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Hough Transform ◽  
Recognition Accuracy ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Supervised Machine Learning ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Palmprint Recognition ◽  
Feature Vectors ◽  
Learning Techniques

The presented paper proposes an algorithm for palmprint recognition using seven different machine learning algorithms. First of all, we have proposed a region of interest (ROI) extraction methodology which is a two key points technique. Secondly, we have performed some image enhancement techniques such as edge detection and morphological operations in order to make the ROI image more suitable for the Hough transform. In addition, we have applied the Hough transform in order to extract all the possible principle lines on the ROI images. We have extracted the most salient morphological features of those lines; slope and length. Furthermore, we have applied the invariant moments algorithm in order to produce 7 appropriate hues of interest. Finally, after performing a complete hybrid feature vectors, we have applied different machine learning algorithms in order to recognize palmprints effectively. Recognition accuracy have been tested by calculating precision, sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, dice, Jaccard coefficients, correlation coefficients, and training time. Seven different supervised machine learning algorithms have been implemented and utilized. The effect of forming the proposed hybrid feature vectors between Hough transform and Invariant moment have been utilized and tested. Experimental results show that the feed forward neural network with back propagation has achieved about 99.99% recognition accuracy among all tested machine learning techniques.

scholarly journals Researching the Research: Applying Machine Learning Techniques to Dissertation Classification

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Suzanna Schmeelk
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Full Text ◽  
Doctoral Program ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Full Time ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Manual Classification ◽  
Machine Learning Tool

This research examines industry-based dissertation research in a doctoral computing program through the lens of machine learning algorithms to understand topics explored by senior and experienced full-time working professionals (EFWPs).  Our research categorizes dissertation by both their abstracts and by their full-text using the Graplab Create library from Apple’s Turi. We also compare the dissertation categorizations using IBM’s Watson Discovery deep machine learning tool.  Our research provides perspectives on the practicality of the manual classification of technical documents; and, it provides insights into the: (1) categories of academic work created by EFWPs in a Computing doctoral program, (2) viability of automated categorization versus human abstraction, and (3) differences in categorization algorithms.

scholarly journals Dr. Phish: Phishing Website Detector

2021 ◽  
Vol 297 ◽  
pp. 01032
Author(s):  
Harish Kumar ◽  
Anshal Prasad ◽  
Ninad Rane ◽  
Nilay Tamane ◽  
Anjali Yeole
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Data Mining ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Cyber Crime ◽  
Data Mining Algorithms ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Mining Algorithms ◽  
Host Properties ◽  
New Strategies

Phishing is a common attack on credulous people by making them disclose their unique information. It is a type of cyber-crime where false sites allure exploited people to give delicate data. This paper deals with methods for detecting phishing websites by analyzing various features of URLs by Machine learning techniques. This experimentation discusses the methods used for detection of phishing websites based on lexical features, host properties and page importance properties. We consider various data mining algorithms for evaluation of the features in order to get a better understanding of the structure of URLs that spread phishing. To protect end users from visiting these sites, we can try to identify the phishing URLs by analyzing their lexical and host-based features.A particular challenge in this domain is that criminals are constantly making new strategies to counter our defense measures. To succeed in this contest, we need Machine Learning algorithms that continually adapt to new examples and features of phishing URLs.

scholarly journals DEVELOPMENT OF A MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHM TO PREDICT AUTHOR’S AGE FROM TEXT

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (10) ◽  
pp. 380-389
Author(s):  
Asogwa D.C ◽  
Anigbogu S.O ◽  
Anigbogu G.N ◽  
Efozia F.N
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Language Processing ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithm ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Political Views ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Age Prediction

Author's age prediction is the task of determining the author's age by studying the texts written by them. The prediction of author’s age can be enlightening about the different trends, opinions social and political views of an age group. Marketers always use this to encourage a product or a service to an age group following their conveyed interests and opinions. Methodologies in natural language processing have made it possible to predict author’s age from text by examining the variation of linguistic characteristics. Also, many machine learning algorithms have been used in author’s age prediction. However, in social networks, computational linguists are challenged with numerous issues just as machine learning techniques are performance driven with its own challenges in realistic scenarios. This work developed a model that can predict author's age from text with a machine learning algorithm (Naïve Bayes) using three types of features namely, content based, style based and topic based. The trained model gave a prediction accuracy of 80%.

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