scholarly journals SPE Approach for Robust Estimation of SIR Model with Limited and Noisy Data: The Case for COVID-19

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-22
Author(s):  
Kerem Senel ◽  
Mesut Ozdinc ◽  
Selcen Ozturkcan
Keyword(s):  
Robust Estimation ◽  
Potential Problem ◽  
Noisy Data ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Significant Challenge ◽  
Research Questions ◽  
Model Variation

Abstract The SIR model and its variants are widely used to predict the progress of COVID-19 worldwide, despite their rather simplistic nature. Nevertheless, robust estimation of the SIR model presents a significant challenge, particularly with limited and possibly noisy data in the initial phase of the pandemic. K-means algorithm is used to perform a cluster analysis of the top ten countries with the highest number of COVID-19 cases, to observe if there are any significant differences among countries in terms of robustness. As a result of model variation tests, the robustness of parameter estimates is found to be particularly problematic in developing countries. The incompatibility of parameter estimates with the observed characteristics of COVID-19 is another potential problem. Hence, a series of research questions are visited. We propose a SPE (“Single Parameter Estimation”) approach to circumvent these potential problems if the basic SIR is the model of choice, and we check the robustness of this new approach by model variation and structured permutation tests. Dissemination of quality predictions is critical for policy and decision-makers in shedding light on the next phases of the pandemic.

Young Adults’ Contextualization of Environmental and Sustainability Issues: A Critical Issue for Environmental Education Intervention

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony KOLA-OLUSANYA
Keyword(s):  
Young Adults ◽  
Environmental Education ◽  
Lived Experiences ◽  
Critical Issue ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
Research Questions ◽  
Depth Interviews ◽  
Insight Into

As soon as decision makers are expected to make differences towards sustainable future, young adults’ ability to make informed and sound decisions is considered essential towards securing our planet. This study provides an insight into young adults’ knowledge of key environment and sustainability issues. To answer the key research questions, data were obtained using a qualitative phenomenographic research approach and collected through 18 face-to-face in-depth interviews with research participants. The findings of this study suggest that young adults lived experiences that play a huge role in their level of awareness of topical environmental and sustainability issues critical to humanity’s future on earth. 

Is it possible to rank universities using fewer indicators? A study on five international university rankings

2019 ◽  
Vol 71 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Güleda Doğan ◽  
Umut Al
Keyword(s):  
Similarity Measure ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Cosine Similarity ◽  
University Rankings ◽  
University Ranking ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Research Questions ◽  
Cosine Similarity Measure ◽  
International University

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the similarity of intra-indicators used in research-focused international university rankings (Academic Ranking of World Universities (ARWU), NTU, University Ranking by Academic Performance (URAP), Quacquarelli Symonds (QS) and Round University Ranking (RUR)) over years, and show the effect of similar indicators on overall rankings for 2015. The research questions addressed in this study in accordance with these purposes are as follows: At what level are the intra-indicators used in international university rankings similar? Is it possible to group intra-indicators according to their similarities? What is the effect of similar intra-indicators on overall rankings? Design/methodology/approach Indicator-based scores of all universities in five research-focused international university rankings for all years they ranked form the data set of this study for the first and second research questions. The authors used a multidimensional scaling (MDS) and cosine similarity measure to analyze similarity of indicators and to answer these two research questions. Indicator-based scores and overall ranking scores for 2015 are used as data and Spearman correlation test is applied to answer the third research question. Findings Results of the analyses show that the intra-indicators used in ARWU, NTU and URAP are highly similar and that they can be grouped according to their similarities. The authors also examined the effect of similar indicators on 2015 overall ranking lists for these three rankings. NTU and URAP are affected least from the omitted similar indicators, which means it is possible for these two rankings to create very similar overall ranking lists to the existing overall ranking using fewer indicators. Research limitations/implications CWTS, Mapping Scientific Excellence, Nature Index, and SCImago Institutions Rankings (until 2015) are not included in the scope of this paper, since they do not create overall ranking lists. Likewise, Times Higher Education, CWUR and US are not included because of not presenting indicator-based scores. Required data were not accessible for QS for 2010 and 2011. Moreover, although QS ranks more than 700 universities, only first 400 universities in 2012–2015 rankings were able to be analyzed. Although QS’s and RUR’s data were analyzed in this study, it was statistically not possible to reach any conclusion for these two rankings. Practical implications The results of this study may be considered mainly by ranking bodies, policy- and decision-makers. The ranking bodies may use the results to review the indicators they use, to decide on which indicators to use in their rankings, and to question if it is necessary to continue overall rankings. Policy- and decision-makers may also benefit from the results of this study by thinking of giving up using overall ranking results as an important input in their decisions and policies. Originality/value This study is the first to use a MDS and cosine similarity measure for revealing the similarity of indicators. Ranking data is skewed that require conducting nonparametric statistical analysis; therefore, MDS is used. The study covers all ranking years and all universities in the ranking lists, and is different from the similar studies in the literature that analyze data for shorter time intervals and top-ranked universities in the ranking lists. It can be said that the similarity of intra-indicators for URAP, NTU and RUR is analyzed for the first time in this study, based on the literature review.

scholarly journals Capital structure construct: a new approach to behavioral finance

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 86-97
Author(s):  
Jose Anselmo Perez Reyes ◽  
Montserrat Reyna Miranda ◽  
Jorge Vera-Martínez
Keyword(s):  
Capital Structure ◽  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Latent Variables ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Financial Behavior ◽  
Chief Financial Officers ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Financial Decision ◽  
Construct Dimensions

Within the framework of behavioral finance, this research shows that financial behavior can be assessed as a cognitive construct. Using certain variables, a multidimensional “cognitive finance” construct can thus be established. Through a technological – psychometric type design with descriptive data analysis, a factor analysis is presented to determine which latent variables tend to charge significantly in order to assess the validity of the dimensions comprising the construct of capital structure and explore its dimensions in relation to financial theory. A 44-item questionnaire is adapted and applied to a sample of chief financial officers from diverse public and nonpublic companies in Mexico. The analysis reveals the existence of four construct dimensions consistent with corporate financial theory. The model helps to explain how decision-makers react to uncertainty and environmental conditions, directly affecting the valuation of firm’s losses or earnings. As evidenced by the results, application of the Item Response Theory to the field of behavioral finance could open up new avenues to the study of cognitive biases, involved in the financial decision-making process. Thus, this implies that behavioral finance can also be treated as “cognitive finance.”

scholarly journals A Predictive Model of Pandemic Disaster Fear Caused by Coronavirus (COVID-19): Implications for Decision-Makers

2022 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 652
Author(s):  
Vladimir M. Cvetković ◽  
Neda Nikolić ◽  
Adem Ocal ◽  
Jovana Martinović ◽  
Aleksandar Dragašević
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Model ◽  
Multivariate Regression ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Regression Analyses ◽  
Socioeconomic Characteristics ◽  
Significant Public Health ◽  
Research Questions ◽  
Structured Questionnaire

This paper presents quantitative research results regarding a predictive model of pandemic disaster fear caused by the coronavirus disease (COVİD-19). The aim of this paper was to establish the level and impact of certain demographic and socioeconomic characteristics on pandemic disaster fear caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19). The research was conducted using a questionnaire that was provided and then collected online for 1226 respondents during May 2021. A closed, five-point Likert scale was used to create the structured questionnaire. The first section of the questionnaire included research questions about the participants’ socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, while the second section included issue questions about fear caused by COVID-19. The results of multivariate regression analyses showed the most important predictor for fear of COVID-19 to be gender, followed by age and education level. Furthermore, the results of t-tests showed statistically significant differences between men and women in terms of different aspects of pandemic disaster fear caused by the coronavirus disease. Our results have several significant public health implications. Women who were more educated and knowledgeable, married, and older, reported a greater fear of the outbreak at various levels. Decision-makers can use these findings to identify better strategic opportunities for pandemic disaster risk management.

scholarly journals ‘I Do Not Appear to Have had Previous Letters’. The Potential and Pitfalls of Using a Qualitative Correspondence Method to Facilitate Insights Into Life in Prison During the Covid-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 ◽  
pp. 160940692110471
Author(s):  
Matthew Maycock
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Research ◽  
Data Collection ◽  
Qualitative Methodology ◽  
Research Projects ◽  
Participatory Action ◽  
Action Research Project ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
Significant Challenge ◽  
Ethical Approval ◽  
Research Questions

The Covid-19 pandemic and lockdown represents a significant challenge for qualitative researchers due to social distancing measures restricting face-to-face data collection. At the time of ethical approval (early April 2020), all face-to-face research projects facilitated by the Scottish Prison Service and most prison jurisdictions were paused. In response to these methodological challenges, a participatory action correspondence methodology was designed in order for people in custody to influence the direction of this project by suggesting research questions and themes. This article analyses the potential of this approach, what this illuminated and critically engages with the challenges of implementing this qualitative methodology. Eight participants were selected due to previous participation in a Participatory Action Research project at one Scottish prison. After consent was given via post, eight letters were sent to the participants. This paper analyses the questions relating to, and aspects of Covid-19 that were important to the participants, in the hope that these insights will influence other qualitative research on the impacts of Covid-19 within prison settings. Methodologically and theoretically, this paper illustrates the potential and challenges relating to using a qualitative correspondence method to facilitate unique insights into life in custody during what emerges as a particularly challenging time in prison settings. More widely the paper reiterates and restates the importance of qualitative research methods as methods that provide unique and rich insights into the Covid-19 pandemic.

Water-Energy-Food Nexus Review for Biofuels Assessment

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 193-205
Author(s):  
Abass A. Gazal ◽  
Napat Jakrawatana ◽  
Thapat Silalertruksa ◽  
Shabbir H. Gheewala
Keyword(s):  
Resource Availability ◽  
First Generation ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Assessment Methodology ◽  
Life Cycle Assessment Methodology ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Future Studies ◽  
Human Needs ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Basic Human Needs

The appropriate use of limited natural resources for generating basic human needs such as energy, food, and water, is essential to help the society function efficiently. Hence, a new approach called nexus is being considered to resolve the effects of intrinsic trade-offs between the essential needs. A review of different methods and frameworks of the water-energy-food nexus was done in this article to give a detailed repository of information on existing approaches and advocate the development of a more holistic quantitative nexus method. Assessing biofuels under the water-energy-food nexus perspective, this review addresses the sustainability of bioenergy production. The results show the countries that can sustainably produce first-generation biofuels. Only a few methods have varied interdisciplinary procedures to analyse the nexus, and more analytical software and data on resource availability/use are needed to address trade-offs between these interacting resource sectors constituting the nexus. Also, “land” is suggested as an additional sector to consider in future studies using both the nexus index and life cycle assessment methodology. The review reveals that to tackle composite challenges related to resource management, cross-disciplinary methods are essential to integrate environmental, socio-political facets of water, energy, and food; employ collaborative frameworks; and seek the engagement of decision-makers.

scholarly journals Deriving customized terrain classes for avalanche risk management in mechanized skiing operations from operational terrain assessments

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reto Sterchi ◽  
Pascal Haegeli
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Decision Aids ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Terrain Classification ◽  
Self Organizing Maps ◽  
New Approach ◽  
The Past ◽  
Avalanche Risk Management ◽  
Avalanche Risk

Abstract. An in-depth understanding of the nature of the available terrain and its exposure to avalanche hazard is crucial for making informed risk management decisions when travelling in the backcountry. While the Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) is broadly used for providing recreationists with terrain information, this type of terrain classification has so far only seen limited adoption within the professional ski guiding community. We hypothesize that it is the generic nature and small number of terrain classes of ATES and its precursor systems that prevent them from offering professional decision makers meaningful assistance. Working with two mechanized skiing operations in British Columbia, Canada, we present a new approach for deriving terrain classifications from daily terrain assessment records. We used a combination of self-organizing maps and hierarchical clustering to identify groups of ski runs that have been assessed similarly in the past and organized them into operation-specific terrain hierarchies. We then examined the nature of the emerging terrain hierarchies using comprehensive run characterizations from experienced guides. Our approach produces high-resolution terrain hierarchies that offer a more nuanced and meaningful perspective on the available skiing terrain and provide new opportunities for examining professional avalanche risk management practices and developing meaningful decision aids.

OP83 Iterative Formative Research Informing Primary Care Education Design

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (S1) ◽  
pp. 21-21
Author(s):  
Josephine Belcher ◽  
Woroud Alzaher ◽  
Pradnya Naik-Panvelkar ◽  
Renee Granger
Keyword(s):  
Program Design ◽  
Contextual Information ◽  
Grey Literature ◽  
Research Process ◽  
Educational Programs ◽  
Formative Research ◽  
Advisory Group ◽  
Design And Development ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Research Questions

IntroductionNPS MedicineWise delivers nationwide educational programs for Australian general practitioners and community pharmacists. Extensive searching and synthesis of published and grey literature is undertaken to inform program design and development. However, this formative research process is lengthy, labour intensive and attempts to pre-emptively answer questions that could arise during design and development, prompting a process re-evaluation.MethodsA more targeted and iterative process was piloted entailing: (i) rapid collation (two weeks maximum) of basic contextual information into a pre-scoping briefing document including high-level statistics on medicines or test usage, key guidelines identification and collation of findings from relevant government and stakeholder reports, (ii) an internal advisory group reviewing the pre-scoping brief and identifying the highest priority research questions that must be answered to inform the design and development of the educational program, (iii) iterative work to answer the highest priority research questions with findings provided to the advisory group fortnightly, involving ad hoc search methods and snowballing techniques to identify pertinent literature quickly, (iv) iterative feedback from the advisory group as to whether the resulting work is adequate and development or whether further information is required, and reprioritisation of the work plan if necessary, and (v) completion of the formative research process within four or five iterations. The new approach was evaluated via surveys of the internal advisory group and staff involved in design and development. Administrative data on staffing and costs using the new approach were also compared with previous data.ResultsThis approach was trialled for three different educational programs. The resulting reports are more targeted, answer specific advisory group questions and take half the time to produce.ConclusionsThis approach can rapidly provide appropriate information to inform program design. The iterative approach has allowed greater responsiveness to changing advisory group priorities and process improvements.

A novel portfolio selection with prospect value constraint and distance measure of IFSs based on the improved entropy-weighted method

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 3519-3543
Author(s):  
Xue Deng ◽  
Chuangjie Chen
Keyword(s):  
Portfolio Selection ◽  
Distance Measure ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Objective Probability ◽  
Psychological State ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Intuitionistic Fuzzy ◽  
Confidence Degree ◽  
Entropy Weighted

The purpose of this paper is to solve the portfolio selection problem when historical data are unavailable. In this paper, the problem is viewed as a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) problem under intuitionistic fuzzy circumstances, and the prospect theory is utilized to reflect decision makers’ psychological state, which is always bounded rational. Therefore, a new approach to solve MCDM problems is presented based on the following improvements. (a) The entropy-weighted method with extreme data resistance is proposed instead of weight function to deal with the weight of criteria, because weight stands for the decision maker’s preference of criteria rather than objective probability and should not be distorted. (b) A new entropy-weighted method with confidence degree is presented, which can not only describe the uncertainty of information each criterion provides but also reflect the decision maker’s confidence in the information. (c) To reduce the interference from extreme data, the median is selected as reference point instead of mean or extreme value. (d) Based on the distance measure, the intuitionistic fuzzy prospect value function is presented to capture decision makers’ psychological state. Finally, a novel model with prospect value constraint and risk preference is constructed to allocate investment ratios. For our proposed method and model, two numerical applications are given to verify their validity and the sensitivity analysis is carried out to illustrate their practical significance.

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