scholarly journals Return to the Scene of the Crime: Revisiting Process Tracing, Bayesianism, and Murder

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-5
Author(s):  
Sherry Zaks
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Analysis ◽  
Recent Article ◽  
Process Tracing ◽  
Rigorous Analysis ◽  
The Way

Abstract In a recent article, I argued that the Bayesian process tracing literature exhibits a persistent disconnect between principle and practice. In their response, Bennett, Fairfield, and Charman raise important points and interesting questions about the method and its merits. This letter breaks from the ongoing point-by-point format of the debate by asking one question: In the most straightforward case, does the literature equip a reasonable scholar with the tools to conduct a rigorous analysis? I answer this question by walking through a qualitative Bayesian analysis of the simplest example: analyzing evidence of a murder. Along the way, I catalogue every question, complication, and pitfall I run into. Notwithstanding some important clarifications, I demonstrate that aspiring practitioners are still facing a method without guidelines or guardrails.

Time-Series Designs and Analyses

2004 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 397-414 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Druckman
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Bayesian Analysis ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Process Tracing ◽  
International Negotiation ◽  
Influence Strategies ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
Conflict Processes ◽  
Peace Agreements ◽  
The Way

AbstractThis article describes the way time-series designs are used in research on international negotiation and related processes. Both quantitative and qualitative applications are discussed. One use of the techniques is to predict known outcomes of historical cases of negotiation. Both inductive and deductive approaches have been used in studies that evaluate alternative models of the way that negotiators respond to each other through the course of the talks. Another use of the techniques is to evaluate the impacts of such interventions as mediations or combat (referred to as interruptions) on the dynamics of conflict between nations. A third approach involves probabilistic forecasting with Bayesian analysis. This consists of revising initial probabilities of events (coups, peace agreements) based on current information about indicators that signal the occurrence of the event. Qualitative techniques have also been used to capture changes in conflict processes over time. These include charting changes in typological categories or in the use of influence strategies used by national actors in enduring rivalries. They also include tracing of paths to agreement or stalemate in negotiation, documenting progress in small-group dialogues, and developing chains of communication leading to peace agreements. By combining several of these techniques an analyst can draw conclusions about the likelihood that an event will occur (Bayesian analysis), its impact on a process (interrupted time series), and the way it emerged from prior events (process tracing).

Maclaurin on Occasionalism: A Reply to Ablondi

2016 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 125-135
Author(s):  
Patrick J. Connolly
Keyword(s):  
Eighteenth Century ◽  
Recent Article ◽  
Gravitational Attraction ◽  
Matter Theory ◽  
Key Features ◽  
Short Essay ◽  
The Way

In a recent article Fred Ablondi compares the different approaches to occasionalism put forward by two eighteenth-century Newtonians, Colin Maclaurin and Andrew Baxter. The goal of this short essay is to respond to Ablondi by clarifying some key features of Maclaurin's views on occasionalism and the cause of gravitational attraction. In particular, I explore Maclaurin's matter theory, his views on the explanatory limits of mechanism, and his appeals to the authority of Newton. This leads to a clearer picture of the way in which Maclaurin understood gravitational attraction and the workings of nature.

Understanding Bayesianism: Fundamentals for Process Tracers

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Andrew Bennett ◽  
Andrew E. Charman ◽  
Tasha Fairfield
Keyword(s):  
Social Science ◽  
Bayesian Analysis ◽  
Qualitative Methods ◽  
Recent Work ◽  
The State ◽  
Process Tracing ◽  
Bayesian Reasoning ◽  
Mutual Exclusivity ◽  
Positive View

Abstract Bayesian analysis has emerged as a rapidly expanding frontier in qualitative methods. Recent work in this journal has voiced various doubts regarding how to implement Bayesian process tracing and the costs versus benefits of this approach. In this response, we articulate a very different understanding of the state of the method and a much more positive view of what Bayesian reasoning can do to strengthen qualitative social science. Drawing on forthcoming research as well as our earlier work, we focus on clarifying issues involving mutual exclusivity of hypotheses, evidentiary import, adjudicating among more than two hypotheses, and the logic of iterative research, with the goal of elucidating how Bayesian analysis operates and pushing the field forward.

An Exercise in Defragmentation

2019 ◽  
pp. 179-197
Author(s):  
Andreas von Arnauld
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Rigorous Analysis ◽  
European Court ◽  
The Future ◽  
Main Driver ◽  
Unified Command ◽  
Grand Chamber ◽  
The Way

The chapter deals with the Grand Chamber judgment in Hassan v UK. With this judgment, which focused on the multinational forces operating in Iraq under unified command in 2003, the European Court of Human Rights has presented a landmark decision with flaws. While eventually unconvincing in its approach to derogations from Convention obligations under Article 15 ECHR, the Court has boldly freed itself of the constraints of the overly abstract and largely unworkable lex specialis standard and—as far as Europe is concerned—has paved the way to consolidate its role as the main driver of further substantive convergence. The author presents a rigorous analysis of the Hassan case and on this basis shows whether and how the Grand Chamber’s findings will influence the global debate regarding the interplay of IHRL and LOAC in the future.

Modern Idiom in an Ancient Context

1962 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 134-141
Author(s):  
G. H. Donaldson
Keyword(s):  
Recent Article ◽  
Second World War ◽  
World War ◽  
Simple Situation ◽  
Second Punic War ◽  
Direct Results ◽  
Second World ◽  
Proper Context ◽  
The Way

Since the Second World War we have been subjected to a flood of memoirs and counter-memoirs by generals, admirals, air marshals, and politicians. One of the direct results of this is that our vocabulary has been increased—if not enriched—by a military jargon. Most of the latter's terms have in fact very specialized meanings, and if they are used out of their proper context they can present a highly coloured view of a rather simple situation. Can these terms be applied with validity to historical situations of antiquity ? At first sight there is an attraction in theirvery modernity, for they seem to give a freshness of approach; but Professor Salmon's use of them in his recent article, ‘The Strategy of the Second Punic War’, has made the dangers of their use manifestly clear. By his use of these anachronisms—for that is surely what they are—Professor Salmon has given nothing new in the way of interpretation, but merely provided confirmation of Oman's dictum ‘Historians may have the most divergent views according to their predispositions’, and has exaggerated the capabilities of both sides beyond belief.

Being an Archdeacon: A Coaching Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 314-327
Author(s):  
Norman Boakes
Keyword(s):  
Recent Article ◽  
Church Of England ◽  
Legal Aspect ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Coaching Model ◽  
Training Development ◽  
Anglican Theology ◽  
The Church ◽  
The Way

Considering the importance of their role in the life of the Church of England and the Church in Wales, there is not much written about the role of archdeacons. In her recent article in the January 2019 issue of this Journal, Jane Steen focused on the legal aspect of the role of archdeacons, and reflected on how they play a key role in shaping the Church and its ministry, delighting in its beauty and rejoicing in its well-being. In this article, the recently retired training, development and support officer for archdeacons reflects on the nature of the role and, in the light of that, on the way in which it might best be carried out. Believing that process is at least as important as outcome, and that good processes lead to better outcomes, he argues that coaching provides a useful model to enable archdeacons to exercise their ministries most effectively and promote both the mission and the well-being of the Church. It is also, he argues, a better reflection of Anglican theology.

From Mistrust to Understanding: Inclusive Constitution-Making Design and Agreement in Tunisia

2020 ◽  
pp. 106591292096710
Author(s):  
Tereza Jermanová
Keyword(s):  
Interpersonal Relationships ◽  
Process Tracing ◽  
Causal Mechanism ◽  
Constituent Assembly ◽  
Identity Based ◽  
Inclusive Processes ◽  
Democratic Constitution ◽  
The Way ◽  
Constitution Making

In 2014, Tunisia’s National Constituent Assembly (NCA) almost unanimously approved the country’s first democratic constitution despite significant identity-based divisions. Drawing on the Tunisian case, the article explores the role of an inclusive constitution-making process in fostering constitutional agreement during democratization. Emerging studies that link different process modalities to democracy have so far brought only limited illumination to how inclusive processes matter, nor were these propositions systematically tested. Using process tracing, and building on original interviews gathered in Tunisia between 2014 and 2020, this article traces a causal mechanism whereby an inclusive constitution-making process allowed for a transformation of interpersonal relationships between political rivals. It demonstrates that more than two years of regular interactions allowed NCA deputies to shatter some of the prejudices that initially separated especially Islamist and non-Islamist partisans and develop cross-partisan ties, thus facilitating constitutional negotiations. However, I argue that the way these transformations contributed to constitutional settlement is more subtle than existing theories envisaged, and suggest alternative explanations. The article contributes to the debate about constitution-making processes by unpacking the understudied concept of partisan inclusion and applying it empirically to trace its effects on constitutional agreement, bringing precision and nuance to current assumptions about its benefits.

A COMMENT ON MEHMET BENGÜ ULUENGIN, “SECULARIZING ANATOLIA TICK BY TICK: CLOCK TOWERS IN THE OTTOMAN EMPIRE AND THE TURKISH REPUBLIC” (IJMES 42 [2010]: 17–36)

2010 ◽  
Vol 42 (3) ◽  
pp. 537-540
Author(s):  
Avner Wishnitzer
Keyword(s):  
Ottoman Empire ◽  
Recent Article ◽  
Significant Contribution ◽  
Cultural Meanings ◽  
Turkish Republic ◽  
Early Republican ◽  
Late Ottoman ◽  
The Way

In his recent article, “Secularizing Anatolia Tick by Tick: Clock Towers in the Ottoman Empire and the Turkish Republic,” Mehmet Bengü Uluengin makes a significant contribution to our understanding of late Ottoman and early republican clock towers. Uluengin shows that Ottoman clock towers carried “complex and seemingly contradictory layering of meanings” (p. 31). These buildings were at times associated with Christianity and with European power but were also seen as modern extensions of the Islamic institution of the muvakkit (timekeeper) or as symbols of the Ottoman government and its modernizing project. The cultural meanings associated with clock towers were fluid, concludes Uluengin, and it was the context that determined the way clock towers were interpreted.

The Goals of Philosophy of Religion: A Reply to Ireneusz Zieminski

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 187
Author(s):  
Kirk Lougheed
Keyword(s):  
Conceptual Analysis ◽  
Recent Article ◽  
Philosophy Of Religion ◽  
Way Of Life ◽  
Epistemic Standard ◽  
Religious Traditions ◽  
Truth Value ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Essentialist Definition ◽  
The Way

In a recent article, Ireneusz Zieminski (2018) argues that the main goals of philosophy of religion are to (i) define religion; (ii) assess the truth value of religion and; (iii) assess the rationality of a religious way of life. Zieminski shows that each of these goals are difficult, if not impossible, to achieve. Hence, philosophy of religion leads to scepticism. He concludes that the conceptual tools philosophers of religion employ are best suited to study specific religious traditions, rather than religion more broadly construed. But it’s unclear whether the goals Zieminski attributes to philosophy of religion are accurate or even necessary for successful inquiry. I argue that an essentialist definition of religion isn’t necessary for philosophy of religion and that philosophers of religion already use the conceptual analysis in the way Zieminski suggests that they should. Finally, the epistemic standard Zieminski has in view is often obscure. And when it is clear, it is unrealistically high. Contemporary philosophers of religion rarely, if ever, claim to be offering certainty, or even evidence as strong as that found in the empirical sciences.

Queer Scottish Gothic

2017 ◽  
pp. 208-221
Author(s):  
Kate Turner
Keyword(s):  
Recent Article ◽  
Simple Observation ◽  
Critical Attention ◽  
The Way

This chapter’s analysis of queer Scottish Gothic originates from a simple observation: there is a large and coherent scholarship on queer Gothic and Scottish Gothic respectively; however, there is notably little analysis of the way Scottish and queer Gothic may interact. With the exception of one recent article by Fiona McCulloch, queer Scottish Gothic has not yet been given full critical attention. This chapter explores revisions in the treatment of Gothic monsters, traditionally viewed as ‘all that is dangerous and horrible in the human imagination’ (Gilmore 2003: 1), in Louise Welsh’s The Cutting Room (2002), Luke Sutherland’s Venus as a Boy (2004) and Zoë Strachan’s Ever Fallen in Love (2011). More specifically, this analysis considers the dissociation of the monstrous figure from fear and terror in these texts, and suggests that they are repositioned as elusive figures through which the peripheral identities of Scottish and of queer may be simultaneously explored.

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