Political Decentralization and Electoral Accountability: The Argentine Experience, 1983–2001

2005 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 133-157 ◽  
Author(s):  
FRANÇOIS GÉLINEAU ◽  
KAREN L. REMMER
Keyword(s):  
Public Support ◽  
Electoral Accountability ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Decentralized Decision Making ◽  
Public Resources ◽  
National Performance ◽  
Electoral Impact ◽  
Subnational Elections ◽  
The Impact

To what extent does public support for subnational officials fluctuate in response to local rather than national performance? Are the policy failures of subnational officials reliably punished by voters? Drawing upon both individual and aggregate level data, this article attempts to shed new light on these questions about the politics of decentralization by exploring electoral outcomes and public opinion at the subnational level in Argentina. Consistent with referendum voting models, this analysis suggests that the fate of candidates in both national and subnational elections is shaped by the performance of the incumbent presidential administration. Moreover, to the extent that subnational performance has an electoral impact, voters do not necessarily respond in ways that enhance electoral accountability. Voters not only blame and reward subnational officials for national performance, but also attribute responsibility for subnational performance to national authorities. The implications with respect to the impact of decentralized decision making on democratic accountability are decidedly mixed and anything but consistent with the argument that decentralization results in a closer match between citizen preferences and the allocation of public resources.

scholarly journals Audits for Accountability: Evidence from Municipal By-Elections in South Africa

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Berliner ◽  
Joachim Wehner
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Electoral Accountability ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Audit Information ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Temporal Coverage ◽  
Identification Strategy ◽  
Responsible Party

Theories of retrospective accountability assume that voters punish poor governance and reward improvements, yet empirical evidence remains mixed. We extend this research to a new context, assessing the impact of audits on electoral outcomes in South African municipalities. Our novel identification strategy focuses on by-elections triggered by deaths in office of local councilors and compares those taking place before and after audit results are announced each year. We find that timely audit information affects the vote share of the responsible party, with voters rewarding improvements and punishing poor audits by about 5 percentage points. Additional individual-level survey evidence confirms the underpinning behavioral response more generally. These results suggest that the effects of audits may depend on their scale – both their spatial and temporal coverage and the nature of their dissemination. Our study is the first to demonstrate electoral accountability effects of audits at full scale.

Federal and Subnational Elections in Russia: Coherence and Divergence in Electoral Outcomes

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 329-353
Author(s):  
Rostislav Turovsky ◽  
Marina Sukhova
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Strong Connection ◽  
Regional Parties ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Electoral Authoritarianism ◽  
Subnational Elections ◽  
Effective Number Of Parties ◽  
Number Of Parties ◽  
Regional Elections

Abstract This article examines the differences between Russian voting at federal elections and regional legislature elections, both combined and conducted independently. The authors analyse these differences, their character and their dynamics as an important characteristic of the nationalisation of the party system. They also test hypotheses about a higher level of oppositional voting and competitiveness in subnational elections, in accordance with the theory of second-order elections, as well as the strategic nature of voting at federal elections, by contrast with expressive voting during subnational campaigns. The empirical study is based on calculating the differences in votes for leading Russian parties at subnational elections and at federal elections (simultaneous, preceding and following) from 2003, when mandatory voting on party lists was widespread among the regions, to 2019. The level of competitiveness is measured in a similar way, by calculating the effective number of parties. The study indicates a low level of autonomy of regional party systems, in many ways caused by the fact that the law made it impossible to create regional parties, and then also by the 2005 ban on creation of regional blocs. The strong connection between federal and regional elections in Russia clearly underlines the fluid and asynchronic nature of its electoral dynamics, where subnational elections typically predetermine the results of the following federal campaigns. At the same time, the formal success of the nationalisation of the party system, achieved by increasing the homogeneity of voting at the 2016 and 2018 federal elections, is not reflected by the opposing process of desynchronisation between federal and regional elections after Putin’s third-term election. There is also a clear rise in the scale of the differences between the two. At the same time, the study demonstrates the potential presence in Russia of features common to subnational elections in many countries: their greater support for the opposition and presence of affective voting. However, there is a clear exception to this trend during the period of maximum mobilisation of the loyal electorate at the subnational elections immediately following the accession of Crimea in 2014–2015, and such tendencies are generally restrained by the conditions of electoral authoritarianism.

Referendum konstytucyjne we Włoszech. Jak głosowanie ludowe wpływa na system polityczny państwa?

2017 ◽  
pp. 110-127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elżbieta Kużelewska
Keyword(s):  
Political System ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The Political ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This article analyses the impact of constitutional referendums on the political system in Italy. There were three constitutional referendums conducted in 2001, 2006 and 2016. All of them have been organised by the ruling parties, however, only the first one was successful. In the subsequent referendums, the proposals for amending the constitution have been rejected by voters. The article finds that lack of public support for the government resulted in voting „no” in the referendum.

scholarly journals Anthropogenic drought dominates groundwater depletion in Iran

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Samaneh Ashraf ◽  
Ali Nazemi ◽  
Amir AghaKouchak
Keyword(s):  
Economic Security ◽  
Groundwater Depletion ◽  
Groundwater Storage ◽  
Rates Of Change ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Storage Basin ◽  
Groundwater Reserves ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Hydrological Droughts

AbstractUsing publicly-available average monthly groundwater level data in 478 sub-basins and 30 basins in Iran, we quantify country-wide groundwater depletion in Iran. Natural and anthropogenic elements affecting the dynamics of groundwater storage are taken into account and quantified during the period of 2002–2015. We estimate that the total groundwater depletion in Iran to be ~ 74 km3 during this period with highly localized and variable rates of change at basin and sub-basin scales. The impact of depletion in Iran’s groundwater reserves is already manifested by extreme overdrafts in ~ 77% of Iran’s land area, a growing soil salinity across the entire country, and increasing frequency and extent of land subsidence in Iran’s planes. While meteorological/hydrological droughts act as triggers and intensify the rate of depletion in country-wide groundwater storage, basin-scale groundwater depletions in Iran are mainly caused by extensive human water withdrawals. We warn that continuation of unsustainable groundwater management in Iran can lead to potentially irreversible impacts on land and environment, threatening country’s water, food, socio-economic security.

Housing Prices and Government Approval: The Impact of Housing Booms on Left- and Right-Wing Governments in 16 Advanced Industrialized Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 54 (1) ◽  
pp. 163-185
Author(s):  
Sung Min Han ◽  
Mi Jeong Shin
Keyword(s):  
Housing Prices ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Industrialized Countries ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Left And Right ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn this article, we argue that rising housing prices increase voter approval of incumbent governments because such a rise increases personal wealth, which leads to greater voter satisfaction. This effect is strongest under right-wing governments because those who benefit from rising prices—homeowners—are more likely to be right-leaning. Non-homeowners, who are more likely to vote for left-leaning parties, will view rising housing prices as a disadvantage and therefore feel the government does not serve them well, which will mitigate the advantage to left-wing governments. We find support for our arguments using both macro-level data (housing prices and government approval ratings in 16 industrialized countries between 1960 and 2017) and micro-level data (housing prices and individuals’ vote choices in the United Kingdom using the British Household Panel Survey). The findings imply that housing booms benefit incumbent governments generally and right-wing ones in particular.

scholarly journals A next step in disruption management: combining operations research and complexity science

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark M. Dekker ◽  
Rolf N. van Lieshout ◽  
Robin C. Ball ◽  
Paul C. Bouman ◽  
Stefan C. Dekker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Operations Research ◽  
Complexity Science ◽  
Rolling Stock ◽  
Accurate Information ◽  
Disruption Management ◽  
Railway Systems ◽  
Decentralized Decision Making ◽  
Control Situations ◽  
Management Techniques ◽  
The Impact

AbstractRailway systems occasionally get into a state of being out-of-control, meaning that barely any train is running, even though the required resources (infrastructure, rolling stock and crew) are available. Because of the large number of affected resources and the absence of detailed, timely and accurate information, currently existing disruption management techniques cannot be applied in out-of-control situations. Most of the contemporary approaches assume that there is only one single disruption with a known duration, that all information about the resources is available, and that all stakeholders in the operations act as expected. Another limitation is the lack of knowledge about why and how disruptions accumulate and whether this process can be predicted. To tackle these problems, we develop a multidisciplinary framework combining techniques from complexity science and operations research, aiming at reducing the impact of these situations and—if possible—avoiding them. The key elements of this framework are (i) the generation of early warning signals for out-of-control situations, (ii) isolating a specific region such that delay stops propagating, and (iii) the application of decentralized decision making, more suited for information-sparse out-of-control situations.

Estimating the Electoral Effects of Voter Turnout

2010 ◽  
Vol 104 (2) ◽  
pp. 268-288 ◽  
Author(s):  
THOMAS G. HANSFORD ◽  
BRAD T. GOMEZ
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Instrumental Variable ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
The United States ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Electoral Choice ◽  
High Turnout ◽  
Specific Factors

This article examines the electoral consequences of variation in voter turnout in the United States. Existing scholarship focuses on the claim that high turnout benefits Democrats, but evidence supporting this conjecture is variable and controversial. Previous work, however, does not account for endogeneity between turnout and electoral choice, and thus, causal claims are questionable. Using election day rainfall as an instrumental variable for voter turnout, we are able to estimate the effect of variation in turnout due to across-the-board changes in the utility of voting. We re-examine the Partisan Effects and Two-Effects Hypotheses, provide an empirical test of an Anti-Incumbent Hypothesis, and propose a Volatility Hypothesis, which posits that high turnout produces less predictable electoral outcomes. Using county-level data from the 1948–2000 presidential elections, we find support for each hypothesis. Failing to address the endogeneity problem would lead researchers to incorrectly reject all but the Anti-Incumbent Hypothesis. The effect of variation in turnout on electoral outcomes appears quite meaningful. Although election-specific factors other than turnout have the greatest influence on who wins an election, variation in turnout significantly affects vote shares at the county, national, and Electoral College levels.

scholarly journals Understanding Social Impact and Value Creation in Hybrid Organizations: The Case of Italian Civil Service

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 4058
Author(s):  
Paolo Esposito ◽  
Valerio Brescia ◽  
Chiara Fantauzzi ◽  
Rocco Frondizi
Keyword(s):  
Value Chain ◽  
Social Impact ◽  
Civil Service ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Hybrid Organizations ◽  
Case Study Analysis ◽  
Public Resources ◽  
Five Elements ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this paper is twofold: first, it aims to analyze what kind of value is generated by hybrid organizations and how; second, it aims to understand the role of social impact assessment (SIA) in the measurement of added value, especially in terms of social and economic change generated by hybrids. Hybrid organizations are a debated topic in literature and have different strengths in responding to needs, mainly in the public interest. Nevertheless, there are not many studies that identify the impact and change generated by these organizations. After highlighting the gap in the literature, the study proposes an innovative approach that combines SIA, interview, interventionist approach and documental analysis. The breakdown of SIA through the five elements of the value chain (inputs, activities, outputs, outcomes, and impact) guarantees a linear definition of the value generated through change with procedural objectivity capable of grasping hybrid organizations’ complexity. The value generated or absorbed is the change generated by the impact measured based on the incidence of public resources allocated. Through the SIA and counterfactual approach, the civil service case study analysis highlights how the value generated by public resources can be measured or more clearly displayed in the measurement process itself.

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