scholarly journals How Open Lists Undermine the Electoral Support of Cohesive Parties

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Thomas Bräuninger ◽  
Thomas Däubler ◽  
Robert Huber ◽  
Lukas Rudolph
Keyword(s):  
Crossover Design ◽  
Party Choice ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Electoral Performance ◽  
Alternative For Germany

Abstract How does ballot structure affect party choice? We argue that open lists undermine the electoral support of cohesive parties, to the benefit of internally divided parties. We conduct a survey-embedded experiment in the aftermath of the European migrant crisis, presenting German voters with real parties but fictitious politicians. A crossover design varies ballot type and exposure to candidate positions on immigration. We find that the internally divided Christian Democrats gain votes at the expense of the cohesive Alternative for Germany when open lists are used and candidate positions are known. For individuals who are equally attracted to both parties, switching is most likely if their immigration preferences lie near the midpoint between the two parties. Overall, our analysis establishes conditions under which ballot structure can affect the electoral performance of parties in general, and that of the populist right in particular.

scholarly journals How open lists undermine the electoral support of cohesive parties

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Bräuninger ◽  
Thomas Däubler ◽  
Robert A. Huber ◽  
Lukas Rudolph
Keyword(s):  
Policy Issue ◽  
Crossover Design ◽  
Party Choice ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Electoral Performance

How does ballot structure affect party choice? We argue that open lists undermine the electoral support of cohesive parties, to the benefit of internally divided parties. This effect is mainly due to indifferent voters close to the midpoint of the two parties' positions on a contested policy issue. We conduct a survey-embedded experiment in the aftermath of the European migrant crisis, presenting German voters real parties with fictitious politicians. A crossover design varies ballot type and exposure to candidate positions on immigration. We find that the internally divided CDU/CSU gains votes at the expense of the cohesive AfD when open lists are used and candidate positions are known. This effect is much stronger among participants indifferent between the AfD and any competitor. Overall, our analysis establishes conditions under which ballot structure can affect electoral performance of parties in general, and that of the populist right in particular.

Bending with the Wind: Revisiting Islamist Parties’ Electoral Dilemma

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 588-613 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Kadir Yildirim ◽  
Caroline M. Lancaster
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Support ◽  
Economic Openness ◽  
Support Level ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The One ◽  
Democratic Elections ◽  
Political Economic ◽  
Electoral Performance ◽  
Positive Effect

AbstractIslamist parties' electoral performance is a hotly debated question. Two arguments dominate the literature in terms of Islamist parties' performance in democratic elections. The conventional argument has been the “one man, one vote, one time” hypothesis. More recently, Kurzman and Naqvi challenge this argument and show that Islamists tend to lose in free elections rather than win them. We argue that existing arguments fall short. Specifically, we theorize that moderateness of Islamist platform plays a key role in increasing the popularity of these parties and leads to higher levels of electoral support. Using data collected by Kurzman and Naqvi, we test our hypothesis, controlling for political platform and political economic factors in a quantitative analysis. We find that there is empirical support for our theory. Islamist parties' support level is positively associated with moderateness; however, this positive effect of moderation is also conditioned by economic openness.

Social and ideological bases of voting

2018 ◽  
pp. 63-81
Author(s):  
John Garry
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behaviour ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Party Choice ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Demographic Traits ◽  
The Social ◽  
Major Player ◽  
Irish Case ◽  
Broad Policy ◽  
Over Time

This chapter examines the social and ideological bases of voting behaviour in 2016. Referring to the classic debates in the comparative literature on political cleavages and upon earlier empirical investigations of the Irish case, the core question the chapter seeks to answer is whether there may be a strong link between voters’ socio-demographic traits, their broad policy beliefs and their party choice in this election. Building upon a similar study of the 2011 election, which found evidence of the emergence of class-based politics, the analysis on this occasion reveals some interesting trends, particularly relating to Sinn Féin. Its steady rise in electoral support over time has seen it emerge as a major player in Irish party politics, with important implications for how we might view the ideological basis of voting behaviour in Ireland. The analysis in this chapter finds that Sinn Féin’s strong socio-demographic profile (working class, left-wing and in favour of Irish unity) sets it apart from the other major parties, differentiating it in terms that would be familiar in a political cleavage-based analysis.

Social Origin Is No Destiny: Background, Institutionalization, and Electoral Performance of New Political Parties in Slovakia

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 637-662 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marek Rybář ◽  
Peter Spáč
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Social Origin ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
European Democracy ◽  
The Social ◽  
Political Entrepreneur ◽  
Party Institutionalization ◽  
Political Entrepreneurs ◽  
Electoral Performance

The existing research suggests that socially rooted new political parties are more likely to be reelected to parliaments than parties emerging without links to preexisting social groups. It is argued that the two groups face different prospects of institutionalization: Rooted parties are more viable because their links to preexisting societal groups contribute to a higher sustainability of their electoral support and stronger institutionalization. We assess the link between the origin of parties, their level of institutionalization, and their electoral performance in the context of Slovakia, a new Eastern European democracy. We add to the existing state of knowledge in three ways. First, we empirically assess the link between the social origin of parties and their level of institutionalization. We also provide rich empirical material on the intraparty processes resulting in various levels of institutionalization. Subsequently, we assess whether rooted parties record better electoral performance than political entrepreneur parties. Second, we provide some illustration of the fact that agential factors, especially the decisions and activities related to leadership contestation, directly impact both party institutionalization and electoral performance. Third, we show that developing the links to a sociostructurally well-defined electorate may be a viable strategy to secure a parliamentary relevance for a prolonged period of time for some political entrepreneurs. Our findings suggest that parties with different levels of institutionalization are able to secure reelection, and that their electoral performance is not directly linked to their social origins.

scholarly journals Support for insider parties: The role of political trust in a longitudinal-comparative perspective

2020 ◽  
pp. 135406882097692
Author(s):  
Constanza Sanhueza Petrarca ◽  
Heiko Giebler ◽  
Bernhard Weßels
Keyword(s):  
Cross Section ◽  
Political Institutions ◽  
Political Trust ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Institutional Trust ◽  
Window Of Opportunity ◽  
Aggregate Level ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Electoral Performance

European democracies have experienced drastic changes in electoral competition. Voter support for insider parties that have traditionally governed has declined while support for radical and populist parties has increased. Simultaneously, citizens’ declining political trust has become a concern, as confidence in political institutions and actors is low across numerous countries. Interestingly, the linkage between political trust and support for insider parties has not been empirically established but deduced from the fact that outsider parties are often supported by dissatisfied citizens. We address this gap adopting both an institutional- and an actor-centered approach by investigating whether trust in parliaments and in parties is associated with the electoral performance of insider parties on the aggregate level. Combining different data sources in a novel way, we apply time-series cross-section models to a dataset containing 30 countries and 137 elections from 1998 to 2018. Our results show that when political trust is low, particularly institutional trust, insider parties receive less electoral support. Hence, we provide empirical evidence that decreasing levels of political trust are the downfall of insider parties, thereby opening a window of opportunity for challenging outsider parties.

Electoral Performance of New Political Parties in Ukraine: The Context of Electoral Volatility at the Parliamentary Level (1998–2019)

2021 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 274-292
Author(s):  
Anatoliy Romanyuk ◽  
Vitaliy Lytvyn
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Identity Politics ◽  
Party System ◽  
Party Affiliation ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Electoral Volatility ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
The Government ◽  
Electoral Performance ◽  
Levels Of Support

This article is devoted to study and comparative analysis of the features and levels of support for new political parties during parliamentary elections in Ukraine, in particular the period 1998–2019. With this in mind, mainly based on the calculations of the indices of overall electoral volatility, intra-system electoral volatility and extra-system electoral volatility, we analyze the parameters of changes in electoral support (by voters) for political parties, in particular new ones, during the 1998–2019 parliamentary elections in Ukraine. In addition, we correlate overall, intra-system and extra-system electoral volatility, and present the correlation of overall electoral volatility in the sample of all political parties as the subjects of electoral processes in Ukraine and political parties elected to the national parliament (the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine). As a result, the study outlines two clusters of extra-system electoral volatility, which show the highest level of similarity, and calculates the dependence of the level of electoral volatility and stability of the party system in Ukraine. With this background, we conclude that electoral volatility in Ukraine is largely determined by the effect of party affiliation or desire to belong to the government or opposition, and is regulated by the special context of identity politics in this country.

Electoral support and militants’ targeting strategies

2021 ◽  
pp. 002234332110477
Author(s):  
Deniz Aksoy ◽  
David Carlson
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Empirical Examination ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Incumbent Party ◽  
Electoral Performance ◽  
The Impact

Militant groups that are in armed conflict with a government often coexist with political parties that have ethnic or ideological connections to them. In this article, we explore the extent to which electoral support received by militant associated opposition parties and nationally incumbent political parties influences subnational variation in militant attacks. We argue, and empirically demonstrate, that militants strategically target localities where the levels of electoral support for the opposition party and the nationally incumbent party are close in an effort to negatively influence the electoral performance of the incumbent party. To illustrate this dynamic we examine subnational data from 1995 to 2015 Turkish legislative elections and attacks organized by the Kurdish militants within the same time period. We also examine the impact of June 2015 legislative elections on militant attacks until the snap elections in November 2015. Our empirical examination shows that militants target localities where electoral support for the governing party and Kurdish opposition party is close. Moreover, increase in violence negatively influences the electoral performance of the governing party. However, it does not consistently have a significant influence on the opposition. The findings illustrate that militants strategically choose the location of their attacks based on electoral dynamics, and attacks can pose an electoral challenge to the governing party.

The ‘Alternative for Germany’: The rise of right-wing populism at the heart of Europe

Politics ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
pp. 295-310 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Lees
Keyword(s):  
European Integration ◽  
Party System ◽  
German Society ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Alternative Für Deutschland ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Right Wing Populism ◽  
Strong Performance ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Alternative For Germany

This article charts the rise of the ‘Alternative for Germany’ ( Alternative für Deutschland or AfD) from its inception in late 2012 to its unexpectedly strong performance in the 2017 Federal election. In terms of the ‘inward’ aspect of Euroscepticism, the article considers the impact of the emergence of successively more hardline leaderships in 2015 and 2017, which led to a shift beyond opposition to aspects of the European integration process to a more profound critique of German society and politics. In terms of the ‘outward’ aspect, it assesses the significance of these developments in the wider debates around Euroscepticism and populism. The article concludes that the AfD’s Euroscepticism is now nested within an ideological profile that increasingly conforms to the template of an orthodox European right-wing populist party. It argues that the widely unanticipated level of electoral support for the AfD in the 2017 Federal elections and its status as the main opposition party in the Bundestag is a systemic shock and potential critical juncture in the development of the German party system and the contestation of European integration in the Federal Republic.

scholarly journals Extreme right parties in Europe today: definition and electoral performance

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (17) ◽  
pp. 124
Author(s):  
Aline Burni
Keyword(s):  
Theoretical Background ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Extreme Right ◽  
European Elections ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Democratic Systems ◽  
Europe Today ◽  
Party Family ◽  
Electoral Performance ◽  
Extreme Right Parties

Since the 1980’s, many European countries known for their consolidated democratic systems, have experienced the unexpected electoral emergence of so-called extreme right or populist radical right parties. With the development of recent elections in the Netherlands, France, Germany and Austria, extreme right parties such as the Dutch Party for Freedom (PVV), the French National Front (FN), the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Freedom Party of Austria (FPO) have attracted attention both from the media and in academic investigation, because of their radical and populist appeals, as well as their relevant electoral results. What do these parties have in common? Do they belong to a single party family? More recently, what has been their electoral support in different countries and types of elections? To contribute to introductory comparative understanding about this topic, this paper will examine the existing literature, and analyze descriptive electoral data of recent contests. The aims of this work are twofold. First, it intends to provide theoretical background about discussions on the terminology and party family definition, which will be done grounded on the specialized literature. I argue that extreme right parties can be defined based on three features: identitarian politics, authoritarian values and a populist style. Second, this work assesses the current electoral performance of main extreme right parties across European countries, using descriptive data collected from three platforms: “ParlGov”, “Parties and Elections in Europe” and “European Elections Database”.

Radical Right-Wing Populists in Parliament

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 41-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lars Rensmann
Keyword(s):  
Radical Right ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Single Issue ◽  
German Politics ◽  
Political Conflicts ◽  
Strategic Orientations ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Nazi Era ◽  
German Parliament ◽  
Alternative For Germany

Founded just five years ago, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) represents the biggest opposition party in the German parliament. This article addresses three questions in European comparative perspective: What is the nature of the AfD as a relevant political party in the Bundestag? What explains its rise and popularity? What is the party’s behavior and impact in parliament, and on German politics in general? Examining platforms, the article first identifies programmatic and ideological shifts that have turned the AfD from a single issue anti-Euro party into the first radical right-wing (populist) party in parliament since the Nazi era. Second, voter analyses suggest that the AfD’s political radicalization has not undermined but increased its appeal. Third, the robust electoral support for radical positions makes it likely that the party seeks to further deepen political conflicts. Behavior in parliament shows that the party follows its European counterparts’ polarizing strategic orientations, reinforcing the Europeanization of a nativist sociocultural “counter-revolution.”

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