Conflict and cooperation in OPEC: some additional economic considerations

1979 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 581-587 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas D. Willett
Keyword(s):  
Recent Article ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Purchasing Power ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Economic Interests ◽  
The Real ◽  
Conflict And Cooperation ◽  
Real Price ◽  
Political Dispute ◽  
Economic Considerations

In a recent article in this journal Paul Jabber presents a cogent analysis of many of the potential conflicts that may face OPEC over the coming years and concludes that a collapse of the cartel is extremely unlikely, even under conditions of severe political dispute among OPEC members. I share Jabber's view that a collapse of the cartel is not probable in the medium-term future. I believe, however, that Jabber has not sufficiently recognized the divergencies as well as the similarities in the economic interests of the oil countries, and that, as a result, his analysis significantly overstates the likelihood that the real level of oil prices, i.e., the nominal price adjusted for the depreciating purchasing power of currencies, is likely to average near if not above the levels initially established with the first full-fledged flexing of OPEC's muscles in 1973–74. After the 1973–74 increases, the real price of oil fell substantially through 1978, although of course nowhere near preembargo levels. Thus Jabber's prediction was that a significant increase in real oil prices will occur over the coming decade.

The ‘Real’ Price of Primary Products

1977 ◽  
Vol 81 ◽  
pp. 72-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
G.F. Ray
Keyword(s):  
19Th Century ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Purchasing Power ◽  
The Real ◽  
Export Prices ◽  
Real Price ◽  
Primary Products ◽  
Real Value ◽  
High Level ◽  
The 19Th Century

This article traces the course of world commodity prices back to the middle of the 19th century and attempts to assess the changes in their purchasing value by deflating them by the export prices of manufactured goods. The purchasing power of commodity prices was in decline over long periods but they usually regained their earlier real value, or improved on it, in powerful upsurges of which the 1972-74 boom was the most recent; it was also unique in peacetime and, though with fluctuations, the purchasing value of commodities has since remained at a relatively high level.

High Oil Prices: Implications and Prospects

2008 ◽  
Vol 205 ◽  
pp. 4-7
Author(s):  
Martin Weale
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Exhaustible Resource ◽  
Sharp Rise ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Price ◽  
Oil Crisis ◽  
Indefinite Future

The sharp rise in the real price of oil has taken it up to or above the levels seen after the second oil crisis of the late 1970s (depending on the currency considered) and has been, to say the least, somewhat disruptive to a world which had anticipated relatively cheap oil, probably for the indefinite future. At the very least, it is hard to imagine that some major consuming countries would have saved as little as they did, had they given proper attention to oil's status as an exhaustible resource. In this commentary the current situation is viewed from that perspective. The short-term impact of high oil prices is discussed on pp. 34–8.

Conflict and cooperation in OPEC: prospects for the next decade

1978 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 377-399 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Jabber
Keyword(s):  
International Economic ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Production Rates ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
Conflict And Cooperation ◽  
International Economic Relations ◽  
Oil Demand

Since 1973 the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has emerged as a working governmental cartel with formidable leverage over international economic relations and Middle Eastern politics. Over the next decade, OPEC will continue to operate as an effective cartel able to maintain real oil prices at least at or near the levels achieved in 1973–74. Expected world oil demand levels will be high enough to obviate substantial economic threats to the Organization's cohesion. Nor are potentially contentious political or ideological issues likely to be pursued by major OPEC members with sufficient vigor to jeopardize the cartel. Of cardinal importance is the fact that only Saudi Arabia is in a position to break the cartel unilaterally. Such Saudi action is highly improbable in the medium term, though after 1980 Saudi leverage will increase and raise with it the utility of oil-production rates as a diplomatic weapon.

Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market

2009 ◽  
Vol 99 (3) ◽  
pp. 1053-1069 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lutz Kilian
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Demand Shocks ◽  
The Real ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Supply Shocks ◽  
Real Price ◽  
Global Demand ◽  
Macroeconomic Aggregates

Shocks to the real price of oil may reflect oil supply shocks, shocks to the global demand for all industrial commodities, or demand shocks that are specific to the crude oil market. Each shock has different effects on the real price of oil and on US macroeconomic aggregates. Changes in the composition of shocks help explain why regressions of macroeconomic aggregates on oil prices tend to be unstable. Evidence that the recent surge in oil prices was driven primarily by global demand shocks helps explain why this shock so far has failed to cause a major recession in the United States. (JEL E31, E32, Q41, Q43)

Oil Prices: Limits to Growth and the Depth of Falling

2006 ◽  
pp. 28-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Bashmakov
Keyword(s):  
Energy Demand ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Production Factor ◽  
Energy Costs ◽  
Purchasing Power ◽  
Limits To Growth ◽  
Technological Basis ◽  
Production Factors ◽  
Output Ratio

This article deals with the determination of future oil prices. The approach used is based on the evaluation of purchasing power limits and allows to put the limits to monopolistic price setting. Several important findings are formulated: going beyond the upper thresholds of purchasing power stipulates negative relationship between energy costs and GDP growth rates, and this brings the dynamics to energy demand to price elasticity. This approach is also based on what the author calls the economics of constants and variables, i.e. on the existence of very stable macroeconomic proportions, which may be observed throughout the whole period of statistical observations (over 200 years). It provides grounds for two conclusions. First, the upper limit of energy costs to the gross output ratio is determined by the least acceptable profitability. Second, the theoretical postulate on substantial production factors substitution used in the production functions theory may be incorrect. In reality, the change of the economy technological basis leads to the substitution of low quality production factor by the same factor with a higher quality. Application of this approach brings the basis for predicting oil prices for 2006-2008.

ANALYTICAL INDICATOR. ANALYSIS OF THE REAL STATE OF DYNAMICS OF MORTALITY OF THE POPULATION OF RUSSIA FROM MALIGNANT TUMORS AND CHANGES IN ITS STRUCTURE

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (2) ◽  
pp. 205-219 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Merabishvili
Keyword(s):  
Malignant Tumors ◽  
Specific Weight ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Age Composition ◽  
The Real ◽  
Indicator Analysis ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Real State

The mortality rate is one of the most important criteria for assessing the health of the population. However, it is important to use analytical indicators correctly, especially when evaluating time series. The value of the “gross” mortality is closely linked with a specific weight of persons of elderly and senile ages. All international publications (WHO, IARC, territorial cancer registers) assess the dynamics of morbidity and mortality only by standardized indicators that eliminate the difference in the age composition of the compared population groups. In Russia, from 1960 to 2017, the share of people of retirement age has increased more than 2 times. The structure of mortality from malignant tumors has changed dramatically. The paper presents the dynamics of gross and standardized mortality rates from malignant tumors in Russia and in all administrative territories. Shows the real success of the Oncology service. The medium-term interval forecast until 2025 has been calculated.

South Africa’s Trade Performance under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 261
Author(s):  
Romaine Patrick ◽  
Phocenah Nyatanga
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Growth Strategies ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Price ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate

This study examined the effect exchange rates have on import and export volumes under alternative exchange rate policies adopted in South Africa over the period 1960 to 2017. Using quarterly time series data for the stated period, a log-linear error correction model is employed to estimate the country’s export and import elasticities, taking into account Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the real price of exports, the real price of imports and real exchange rates. Using the freely floating exchange rate regime as the base period, the study concluded that both export and import volumes are lower under a system of fixed exchange rates. Export and import volumes were also found to be lower under the dual exchange rate regime, relative to the freely floating exchange rate regime. In accordance with export-led growth strategies, exports were found to be higher and imports lower under a managed floating exchange rate regime. It is therefore recommended that South Africa revert to a more managed exchange rate regime, until the South African economy is developed to accommodate a freely floating exchange rate regime.

scholarly journals A Viable Approach to Mitigating Irreproducibility

Stats ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 205-215
Author(s):  
David Trafimow ◽  
Tonghui Wang ◽  
Cong Wang
Keyword(s):  
Upper Bound ◽  
Recent Article ◽  
Practical Problem ◽  
The Real ◽  
Viable Approach ◽  
Real Universe ◽  
The Ideal

In a recent article, Trafimow suggested the usefulness of imagining an ideal universe where the only difference between original and replication experiments is the operation of randomness. This contrasts with replication in the real universe where systematicity, as well as randomness, creates differences between original and replication experiments. Although Trafimow showed (a) that the probability of replication in the ideal universe places an upper bound on the probability of replication in the real universe, and (b) how to calculate the probability of replication in the ideal universe, the conception is afflicted with an important practical problem. Too many participants are needed to render the approach palatable to most researchers. The present aim is to address this problem. Embracing skewness is an important part of the solution.

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