Fertility intention-based birth forecasting in the context of China’s universal two-child policy: an algorithm and empirical study in Xi’an City

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Jianghua Liu ◽  
Lianchao Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Baby Boom ◽  
Fertility Intentions ◽  
Limiting Factors ◽  
Fertility Survey ◽  
Fertility Intention ◽  
Second Child ◽  
Child Policy ◽  
Survey Sample ◽  
Xi’An City ◽  
Do So

Abstract After a universal two-child policy was introduced in China in 2016, studies have been published using women’s fertility intentions to forecast future births; however, the recommended algorithms need to be improved. In this study, an algorithm based on the method of limiting factors is developed to retrospectively forecast annual births in Xi’an City in the first three years of policy implementation, i.e. 2016–2018. The 2015 Xi’an Fertility Survey (sample: 560 one-child mothers) showed that 17% of mothers intended to have a second child, 30% were undecided and 53% did not intend to do so at the end of 2015. The low forecast variant based on the updated algorithm indicates that there would be a baby boom in 2016–2018, but the annual births would increase by 13% at most. The forecasting results are basically consistent with the official reports on annual births. This study emphasizes the importance of appropriately adjusting all fertility intentions in birth forecasting, helps to understand women’s fertility behaviour and evaluate the effects of implementing the universal two-child policy, and has important implications for China’s population and family planning work.

Fertility intentions among the working population of Dalian City born between 1980 and 1989

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Hongyan Qiu ◽  
Qun Zhang ◽  
Jin Zhang ◽  
Qingshan Wang ◽  
Lihong Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Family Income ◽  
Reproductive Behaviour ◽  
Fertility Intentions ◽  
Second Child ◽  
Number Of Children ◽  
Child Policy ◽  
Future Fertility ◽  
The Future ◽  
Dalian City ◽  
Ideal Number

Abstract In October 2015, the Chinese Government announced that the one-child policy had finally been replaced by a universal two-child policy. China’s universal two-child policy is highly significant because, for the first time in 36 years, no one in an urban city is restricted to having just one child. This cross-sectional study was conducted to explore future fertility intentions and factors influencing individual reproductive behaviour (whether to have two children) in Dalian City. A total of 1370 respondents were interviewed. The respondents’ mean ideal number of children was only 1.73, and urban respondents’ sex preference was symmetrical. A total of 19.0% of the respondents were unmarried, 64.5% were married and had childbearing experience and only 6.3% of married respondents had two children. Among the 1370 participants, 30.4% stated that they would have a second child, while 69.6% refused to have a second child in the future. Binary logistic regression analysis (Model 1) showed that the following characteristics were associated with having only one child in the future: being female, being older, having a lower education level, being born in Dalian, having a lower family income and reporting one child as the ideal number of children. Model 2 (comprising only respondents with childbearing experience) showed that respondents who were female, had a lower family income and were unable to obtain additional financial support from parents were more likely to intend to stick at one child. In addition, respondents’ ideal number of children and childbearing experiences had a significant influence on future fertility intentions. These results suggest that fertility intentions and reproductive behaviours are still below those needed for replacement level fertility in Dalian City. China’s policymakers should pay more attention to these factors (socioeconomic characteristics, economic factors, desired number of children and childbearing experiences) and try to increase individual reproductive behaviour.

scholarly journals Assessing Short-Term Fertility Intentions and Their Realisation Using the Generations and Gender Survey: Pitfalls and Challenges

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zuzanna Brzozowska ◽  
Eva Beaujouan
Keyword(s):  
Fertility Intentions ◽  
Fertility Intention ◽  
National Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Degree Of Certainty ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
And Gender ◽  
Questionnaire Adaptation ◽  
Cross National

AbstractThe use of fertility intention questions to study individual childbearing behaviour has developed rapidly in recent decades. In Europe, the Generations and Gender Surveys are the main sources of cross-national data on fertility intentions and their realisation. This study investigates how an inconsistent implementation of a question about wanting a child now affects the cross-country comparability of intentions to have a child within the next three years and their realisation. We conduct our analysis separately for women and men at prime and late reproductive ages in Austria, France, Italy and Poland. The results show that the overall share of respondents intending to have a child at some point in their life is similar in all four analysed countries. However, once the time horizon and the degree of certainty of fertility intentions are included, substantial cross-country differences appear, particularly in terms of proceptive behaviour and, consequently, the realisation of fertility intentions. We conclude that the inconsistent questionnaire adaptation makes it very difficult to assess the role of country context in the realisation of childbearing intentions.

scholarly journals The second pregnancy has no effect in the incidence of macrosomia: a cross-sectional survey in two western Chinese regions

2021 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Luo ◽  
Huan Zeng ◽  
Mao Zeng ◽  
Xueqing Liu ◽  
Xianglong Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Western China ◽  
Fetal Macrosomia ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Second Child ◽  
Child Policy ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background After the implementation of the universal two-child policy in China, the increase in parity has led to an increase in adverse pregnancy outcomes. The impact of one and two fetuses on the incidence of fetal macrosomia has not been fully confirmed in China. This study aimed to explore the differences in the incidence of fetal macrosomia in first and second pregnancies in Western China after the implementation of the universal two-child policy. Methods A total of 1598 pregnant women from three hospitals were investigated by means of a cross-sectional study from August 2017 to January 2018. Participants were recruited by convenience and divided into first and second pregnancy groups. These groups included 1094 primiparas and 504 women giving birth to their second child. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to discuss the differences in the incidence of fetal macrosomia in first and second pregnancies. Results No significant difference was found in the incidence of macrosomia in the first pregnancy group (7.2%) and the second pregnancy group (7.1%). In the second-time pregnant mothers, no significant association was found between the macrosomia of the second child (5.5%) and that of the first child (4.7%). The multivariate logistic regression model showed that mothers older than 30 years are not likely to give birth to children with macrosomia (odds ratio (OR) 0.6, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.4,0.9). Conclusions The incidence of macrosomia in Western China is might not be affected by the birth of the second child and is not increased by low parity.

scholarly journals Intention to have a second child among Chinese women one year after the implementation of selective two-child policy: a cross-sectional survey

The Lancet ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 388 ◽  
pp. S96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xianglong Xu ◽  
Hanxiao Zuo ◽  
Yunshuang Rao ◽  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Lian Lian Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chinese Women ◽  
Cross Sectional Survey ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Second Child ◽  
Child Policy ◽  
One Year

LOW FERTILITY INTENTION IN TEHRAN, IRAN: THE ROLE OF ATTITUDES, NORMS AND PERCEIVED BEHAVIOURAL CONTROL

2016 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 292-308 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amir Erfani
Keyword(s):  
Fertility Intentions ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Second Child ◽  
Normative Pressure ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
First Child ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Perceived Constraints

SummaryPersistent low fertility rates are an increasing concern for countries with low fertility like Iran. Informed by the Theory of Planned Behaviour, this study examined the immediate factors influencing fertility intentions, using data from the 2012 Tehran Survey of Fertility Intentions. The findings show that more than half of young married adults in Tehran intend to have no more children. The multivariate analysis results indicate that individuals who view childbearing as being detrimental to their personal life, feel less normative pressure to have a/another child, and believe their childbearing decision is not contingent on the presence of economic resources required for childbearing, are more likely to want no (more) children or to be unsure rather than to want a/another child. Attitudes and normative pressure are dominant factors influencing the intention to have a first child, while the intention to have a second child is mainly affected by attitudes and perceived constraints. The policy implications of the results are discussed.

scholarly journals Fertility Intentions and Views on Gender Roles: Russian Women in Estonia from an Origin-destination Perspective

2019 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Allan Puur ◽  
Hanna Vseviov ◽  
Liili Abuladze
Keyword(s):  
Gender Roles ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Gender Role Attitudes ◽  
Fertility Intentions ◽  
Host Population ◽  
Second Child ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Cultural Maintenance ◽  
Childbearing Intentions ◽  
The Difference

In this article we investigate fertility intentions of Russian women in Estonia from an origin-destination perspective. Russian migrants to Estonia and their descendants are compared with women in the sending and host countries in order to identify similarities and differences in intended transitions to first, second and third births. The study is based on the Estonian and Russian Generations and Gender Surveys, which were conducted in 2004/2005, and employs logistic regression models. The dependent variables are intentions to become a mother, to have a second child, or to have a third child. The hypotheses for the study are mainly derived from the adaptation, cultural maintenance, and selection (characteristics) perspectives. We also incorporate attitudes towards gender roles into the models, which have proven to be a salient factor in shaping childbearing intentions, but have seldom been considered in studies of migrant fertility.Our results lend support to both the adaptation and cultural maintenance perspectives. In accord with the latter, the similarity between the childbearing intentions of Russian migrants and their descendants in Estonia and those of their counterparts in Russia suggests that socialisation to the ethnic subculture has prevailed over the influence of the host society. We attribute this outcome to contextual features that have retarded integration processes. By contrast, we observe that proficiency in the host country language, residence in areas where the host population constitutes a large majority and having a native partner significantly contribute to the adaptation of migrants’ intentions to have another child to those of the host population. These results provide support to the adaptation argument. Finally, our study reveals a positive association between egalitarian views on gender roles and women’s intentions to have another child. However, variation in gender role attitudes accounts for a relatively minor part of the difference in intended fertility between the groups addressed in this study.* This article belongs to a special issue on migrant fertility.

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