scholarly journals The epidemiology of rubella in Mexico: seasonality, stochasticity and regional variation

2010 ◽  
Vol 139 (7) ◽  
pp. 1029-1038 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. J. E. METCALF ◽  
O. N. BJØRNSTAD ◽  
M. J. FERRARI ◽  
P. KLEPAC ◽  
N. BHARTI ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
North America ◽  
Regional Variation ◽  
Stochastic Dynamics ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Annual Cycles ◽  
Congenital Rubella ◽  
Age Of Infection ◽  
Lines Of Evidence

SUMMARYThe factors underlying the temporal dynamics of rubella outside of Europe and North America are not well known. Here we used 20 years of incidence reports from Mexico to identify variation in seasonal forcing and magnitude of transmission across the country and to explore determinants of inter-annual variability in epidemic magnitude in rubella. We found considerable regional variation in both magnitude of transmission and amplitude of seasonal variation in transmission. Several lines of evidence pointed to stochastic dynamics as an important driver of multi-annual cycles. Since average age of infection increased with the relative importance of stochastic dynamics, this conclusion has implications for the burden of congenital rubella syndrome. We discuss factors underlying regional variation, and implications of the importance of stochasticity for vaccination implementation.

Collective Burial in Late Prehistoric Virginia: Excavation and Analysis of the Rapidan Mound

2003 ◽  
Vol 68 (1) ◽  
pp. 109-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary H. Dunham ◽  
Debra L. Gold ◽  
Jeffrey L. Hantman
Keyword(s):  
Eighteenth Century ◽  
North America ◽  
Historical Context ◽  
Late Prehistoric ◽  
Mortuary Ritual ◽  
New Information ◽  
Virginia Piedmont ◽  
Burial Mounds ◽  
Secondary Burial ◽  
Lines Of Evidence

Recent excavation and analysis of the remaining section of the endangered Rapidan Mound site (44OR1) in the central Virginia Piedmont provide new insights into a unique complex of burial mounds in the Virginia interior. Known since Thomas Jefferson's eighteenth-century description, the mounds are both earth and stone and accretional earthen mounds. Thirteen are recorded, all dating to the late prehistoric and early contact era (ca. A.D. 900-1700). Typically containing few artifacts, the accretional mounds are unusual in North America in the numbers of individuals interred, more than one thousand in at least two cases, and in the nature of the secondary, collective burial ritual that built up the mounds over centuries. Following a review of the characteristics of the mound complex, we focus on the Rapidan Mound and the analysis of the collective, secondary burial features in the mound. Precise provenience information and bioarchaeological analyses of two large and intact collective burial features provide new information on health and diet, and several lines of evidence for demographic reconstruction. Finally, we discuss the mortuary ritual conducted at the mounds within the cultural and historical context of the region.

Abstract 236: Regional Incidence and Outcome of Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Associated with Overdose

Circulation ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 130 (suppl_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
David D Salcido ◽  
Allison C Koller ◽  
Cesar D Torres ◽  
Aaron M Orkin ◽  
Rob H Schmicker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiac Arrest ◽  
North America ◽  
Prescription Drugs ◽  
Regional Variation ◽  
Spontaneous Circulation ◽  
Research Network ◽  
Shockable Rhythm ◽  
Statistics Canada ◽  
Population Counts ◽  
Hospital Cardiac Arrest

Introduction: The frequency of lethal overdose due to prescription and non-prescription drugs is increasing in North America. The contribution of drug overdose (OD) to regional variation in the incidence and outcome out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is unclear. Objective: To estimate overall and regional variation in incidence and outcomes of emergency medical services (EMS)-treated OD-OHCA cases across North America. Methods: The Resuscitation Outcomes Consortium (ROC) is a clinical research network with 10 regional clinical centers in United States (US) and Canada that uses uniform methods for surveillance of all EMS-treated OHCA in participating regions. Cases of OHCA from 2006 to 2010 were reviewed for evidence of association with or without OD. Incidence of OD-OHCA was calculated as the number of OD-OHCA in a region per 100,000 cumulative person-years, using 2000 US Census and 2006 Statistics Canada population counts. Patient and EMS characteristics as well as outcome were described. Multiple logistic regression was used to describe the association between OD status on return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) and survival to hospital discharge, while adjusting for case characteristics and consortium center. Results: Included were 56,272 cases of OHCA. Regional incidence of OD-OHCA varied between 0.5 and 2.7 per 100,000 person years (p<0.001), and proportion of OD-OHCA among all EMS-treated OHCA ranged from 0.9% to 3.8%. Table 1 shows outcomes and characteristics stratified by OD status; OD-OHCA were younger, less likely to be witnessed, and less likely to present with a shockable rhythm. Compared to non-OD, OD-OHCA was associated with ROSC (OR: 1.55; 95%CI: 1.35-1.78) and survival (OR: 2.14; 95%CI: 1.72-2.65). Conclusions: OD-OHCA are a small proportion of all OHCA, although incidence varied up to 5-fold across regions. OD-OHCA were more likely to survive than non-OD-OHCA.

scholarly journals Space Is More Important than Season when Shaping Soil Microbial Communities at a Large Spatial Scale

mSystems ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaoping Zhang ◽  
Manuel Delgado-Baquerizo ◽  
Yong-Guan Zhu ◽  
Haiyan Chu
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
Microbial Community ◽  
Spatial Scale ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Soil Microbial Communities ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variation ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Large Spatial Scale ◽  
Environmental Covariates ◽  
Soil Microbial

ABSTRACT The relative importance of spatial and temporal variability in shaping the distribution of soil microbial communities at a large spatial scale remains poorly understood. Here, we explored the relative importance of space versus time when predicting the distribution of soil bacterial and fungal communities across North China Plain in two contrasting seasons (summer versus winter). Although we found that microbial alpha (number of phylotypes) and beta (changes in community composition) diversities differed significantly between summer and winter, space rather than season explained more of the spatiotemporal variation of soil microbial alpha and beta diversities. Environmental covariates explained some of microbial spatiotemporal variation observed, with fast-changing environmental covariates—climate variables, soil moisture, and available nutrient—likely being the main factors that drove the seasonal variation found in bacterial and fungal beta diversities. Using random forest modeling, we further identified a group of microbial exact sequence variants (ESVs) as indicators of summer and winter seasons and for which relative abundance was associated with fast-changing environmental variables (e.g., soil moisture and dissolved organic nitrogen). Together, our empirical field study’s results suggest soil microbial seasonal variation could arise from the changes of fast-changing environmental variables, thus providing integral support to the large emerging body of snapshot studies related to microbial biogeography. IMPORTANCE Both space and time are key factors that regulate microbial community, but microbial temporal variation is often ignored at a large spatial scale. In this study, we compared spatial and seasonal effects on bacterial and fungal diversity variation across an 878-km transect and found direct evidence that space is far more important than season in regulating the soil microbial community. Partitioning the effect of season, space and environmental variables on microbial community, we further found that fast-changing environmental factors contributed to microbial temporal variation.

scholarly journals Seasonal migrations, body temperature fluctuations, and infection dynamics in adult amphibians

PeerJ ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. e4698 ◽  
Author(s):  
David R. Daversa ◽  
Camino Monsalve-Carcaño ◽  
Luis M. Carrascal ◽  
Jaime Bosch
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
Body Temperature ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Batrachochytrium Dendrobatidis ◽  
Effective Means ◽  
The Body ◽  
Infection Prevalence ◽  
Body Temperatures ◽  
Annual Cycles ◽  
Prediction And Prevention

Risks of parasitism vary over time, with infection prevalence often fluctuating with seasonal changes in the annual cycle. Identifying the biological mechanisms underlying seasonality in infection can enable better prediction and prevention of future infection peaks. Obtaining longitudinal data on individual infections and traits across seasons throughout the annual cycle is perhaps the most effective means of achieving this aim, yet few studies have obtained such information for wildlife. Here, we tracked spiny common toads (Bufo spinosus) within and across annual cycles to assess seasonal variation in movement, body temperatures and infection from the fungal parasite, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Across annual cycles, toads did not consistently sustain infections but instead gained and lost infections from year to year. Radio-tracking showed that infected toads lose infections during post-breeding migrations, and no toads contracted infection following migration, which may be one explanation for the inter-annual variability in Bd infections. We also found pronounced seasonal variation in toad body temperatures. Body temperatures approached 0 °C during winter hibernation but remained largely within the thermal tolerance range of Bd. These findings provide direct documentation of migratory recovery (i.e., loss of infection during migration) and escape in a wild population. The body temperature reductions that we observed during hibernation warrant further consideration into the role that this period plays in seasonal Bd dynamics.

scholarly journals The relative importance of biotic and abiotic determinants of temporal occupancy for avian species in North America

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 736-747 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Snell Taylor ◽  
James Umbanhowar ◽  
Allen H. Hurlbert
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Avian Species ◽  
Relative Importance

Hierarchy, Communalism, and the Spatial Order of Northwest Coast Plank Houses: A Comparative Study

2009 ◽  
Vol 74 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary Coupland ◽  
Terence Clark ◽  
Amanda Palmer
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Social Life ◽  
Northwest Coast ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Prominent Feature ◽  
Spatial Order ◽  
Apparent Contradiction ◽  
Social Hierarchies ◽  
Culture Area ◽  
The Relationship

The tension between hierarchy and communalism is a prominent feature of social life in transegalitarian societies. How are hierarchy and communalism combined in these societies? How are they materialized in everyday life? In this paper, we examine the relationship between hierarchy and communalism in the transegalitarian societies of the Northwest Coast of North America. We focus on households, the primary socioeconomic units of the culture area, and on the plank houses that contained them. Despite the apparent contradiction between hierarchy and communalism, we find that in Northwest Coast households with highly developed social hierarchies, communal practices remained deeply entrenched, while in households with weaker hierarchies, communalism was less developed. The relative importance of hierarchy and communalism in daily household life was clearly materialized in the spatial order of plank houses. By simultaneously objectifying both principles, the house may have played an important role in easing the tension between them.

scholarly journals Introduction of rubella-containing-vaccine to Madagascar: implications for roll-out and local elimination

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (117) ◽  
pp. 20151101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy Wesolowski ◽  
Keitly Mensah ◽  
Cara E. Brook ◽  
Miora Andrianjafimasy ◽  
Amy Winter ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
Local Extinction ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Global Alliance ◽  
Congenital Rubella ◽  
Age Of Infection ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Serological Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Roll Out

Few countries in Africa currently include rubella-containing vaccination (RCV) in their immunization schedule. The Global Alliance for Vaccines Initiative (GAVI) recently opened a funding window that has motivated more widespread roll-out of RCV. As countries plan RCV introductions, an understanding of the existing burden, spatial patterns of vaccine coverage, and the impact of patterns of local extinction and reintroduction for rubella will be critical to developing effective programmes. As one of the first countries proposing RCV introduction in part with GAVI funding, Madagascar provides a powerful and timely case study. We analyse serological data from measles surveillance systems to characterize the epidemiology of rubella in Madagascar. Combining these results with data on measles vaccination delivery, we develop an age-structured model to simulate rubella vaccination scenarios and evaluate the dynamics of rubella and the burden of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) across Madagascar. We additionally evaluate the drivers of spatial heterogeneity in age of infection to identify focal locations where vaccine surveillance should be strengthened and where challenges to successful vaccination introduction are expected. Our analyses indicate that characteristics of rubella in Madagascar are in line with global observations, with an average age of infection near 7 years, and an impact of frequent local extinction with reintroductions causing localized epidemics. Modelling results indicate that introduction of RCV into the routine programme alone may initially decrease rubella incidence but then result in cumulative increases in the burden of CRS in some regions (and transient increases in this burden in many regions). Deployment of RCV with regular supplementary campaigns will mitigate these outcomes. Results suggest that introduction of RCV offers a potential for elimination of rubella in Madagascar, but also emphasize both that targeted vaccination is likely to be a lynchpin of this success, and the public health vigilance that this introduction will require.

scholarly journals Use of North American and European air quality networks to evaluate global chemistry–climate modeling of surface ozone

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (18) ◽  
pp. 10581-10596 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. L. Schnell ◽  
M. J. Prather ◽  
B. Josse ◽  
V. Naik ◽  
L. W. Horowitz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Grid Cells ◽  
Current Generation ◽  
Annual Cycles ◽  
Diurnal Range ◽  
Model Measurement

Abstract. We test the current generation of global chemistry–climate models in their ability to simulate observed, present-day surface ozone. Models are evaluated against hourly surface ozone from 4217 stations in North America and Europe that are averaged over 1° × 1° grid cells, allowing commensurate model–measurement comparison. Models are generally biased high during all hours of the day and in all regions. Most models simulate the shape of regional summertime diurnal and annual cycles well, correctly matching the timing of hourly (~ 15:00 local time (LT)) and monthly (mid-June) peak surface ozone abundance. The amplitude of these cycles is less successfully matched. The observed summertime diurnal range (~ 25 ppb) is underestimated in all regions by about 7 ppb, and the observed seasonal range (~ 21 ppb) is underestimated by about 5 ppb except in the most polluted regions, where it is overestimated by about 5 ppb. The models generally match the pattern of the observed summertime ozone enhancement, but they overestimate its magnitude in most regions. Most models capture the observed distribution of extreme episode sizes, correctly showing that about 80 % of individual extreme events occur in large-scale, multi-day episodes of more than 100 grid cells. The models also match the observed linear relationship between episode size and a measure of episode intensity, which shows increases in ozone abundance by up to 6 ppb for larger-sized episodes. We conclude that the skill of the models evaluated here provides confidence in their projections of future surface ozone.

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