Forecasting the 2012 US Presidential Election: Lessons from a State-by-State Political Economy Model

2012 ◽  
Vol 45 (04) ◽  
pp. 663-668 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruno Jerôme ◽  
Véronique Jerôme-Speziari
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Ronald Reagan ◽  
The United States ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Subprime Mortgage ◽  
Approval Rating ◽  
Mortgage Crisis ◽  
Presidential Popularity ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Mitt Romney

Since 2008, the economic fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis has led to the defeat of a number of incumbents in the world's major democracies. For instance, in the former EU-15, eight countries (including France) have ousted their incumbents in favor of new leaders. The United States is no exception, and the 2012 US presidential election will see Barack Obama running for a second term during difficult economic times. After hitting a high of 10% in October 2009, the nation's unemployment rate decreased to 8.2% in May 2012. Nonetheless, this is still 0.7 percentage point higher than what Ronald Reagan faced in 1984 or what confronted George H.W. Bush in 1992 as they ran for their second terms. Looking at measures of presidential popularity for the month of May since 1980, Barack Obama's approval rating is at 46% in the Gallup polls, which is the third-worst rating after George W. Bush (30% in 2008) and George H.W. Bush (39.4% in 1992). Given Barack Obama's approval rating and the current national unemployment level, must we conclude that Barack Obama is irremediably on the ropes against Mitt Romney in 2012?

scholarly journals Key to the 2012 Presidential Election: The Philadelphia Suburbs

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 28-33
Author(s):  
Thomas Joseph Lonergan
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The United States ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
History Of ◽  
Mitt Romney

Mitt Romney or Barack Obama: this is the choice Pennsylvanian voters will have in November as the 2012 presidential election draws closer. The voters of Pennsylvania will be at the height of importance in the history of American presidential elections, playing a key role as one of the leading battleground states in this upcoming election. With twenty electoral votes, tied for the fifth most of any state in the country, both campaigns will look to focus a great amount of time and money on trying to win this crucial state. And at the center of this fierce battle between the current GOP presumptive nominee and the President of the United States are four counties that comprise the suburbs of Philadelphia. These counties will ultimately decide the fate of Pennsylvania’s electoral votes, and possibly even the election itself.

War Stories

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Revesz ◽  
Jack Lienke
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
The United States ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Coal Industry ◽  
Mining Operations ◽  
Federal Laws ◽  
Mitt Romney ◽  
War Stories

To Representative Marsha Blackburn, Republican of Tennessee, the threat was clear: “Mr. Speaker, there is a war being waged on energy and on coal in this country. But it’s not coming from another country, it is coming from our own government.” Her colleague, Mike Pompeo of Kansas, agreed: “President Obama’s War on Coal means fewer jobs and higher energy costs for Americans.” Those who believed otherwise, Virginia Representative David McKinley warned, were “in dangerous denial.” It was September 20, 2012, two months before a presidential election that would pit incumbent Barack Obama against former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, and the United States House of Representatives was preparing to vote on the bluntly titled Stop the War on Coal Act. Democrats on the Energy and Commerce Committee called the proposed legislation, which would strip the EPA of its power to regulate coal-mining operations and coal-fired power plants under a host of federal laws, “the single worst anti-environment bill to be considered in the House this Congress.” But the bill’s sponsors argued that significantly curtailing the EPA’s authority over the coal industry was the only way to prevent the President’s war from claiming “even more victims.” The Stop the War on Coal Act passed the House on September 21, 2012, in a 233–175 vote, with the support of nineteen Democrats. No one thought it had any chance of moving in the Democrat-controlled Senate. Instead, the House’s vote, which would be its last act before election day, was “only meant to be an instrument to bludgeon Obama and other Democrats,” as one commentator put it—a reminder to the coal-country electorate of the existential threat posed by the current President and his party. It hadn’t always been this way. On the contrary, four years earlier, Barack Obama had enjoyed a brief, involuntary tenure as the coal industry’s “spokesperson-in-chief.” About a month after Obama emerged victorious from the 2008 election, the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity (ACCCE), a “partnership of the industries involved in producing electricity from coal,” released an advertisement made up entirely of video excerpts from a speech he had given at a September 2008 campaign rally in Lebanon, Virginia.

scholarly journals A Review of Mormon Studies in China

Religions ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 375
Author(s):  
Hongmeng Cheng
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
National Level ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Journal Articles ◽  
Internal Factors ◽  
History Of ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Chinese Scholars ◽  
Mitt Romney ◽  
High Level

Mormon studies in China began in the early 1990s and can be divided into three phases between the years of 2004 and 2017. The first Master’s and Doctoral theses on Mormonism were both published in 2004, and journal articles have also been increasing in frequency since then. The year of 2012 saw a peak, partly because Mormon Mitt Romney won the Republican nomination for the 2012 US presidential election. In 2017, a national-level project, Mormonism and its Bearings on Current Sino-US Relations, funded by the Chinese government, was launched. However, Mormon studies in China is thus far still in its infancy, with few institutions and a small number of scholars. Academic works are limited in number, and high-level achievements are very few. Among the published works, the study of the external factors of Mormonism is far more prevalent than research on its internal factors. Historical, sociological, and political approaches far exceed those of philosophy, theology, and history of thoughts. To Mormon studies, Chinese scholars can and should be making unique contributions, but the potential remains to be tapped.

scholarly journals CONTAGION AND DOWNSIDE RISK IN THE REIT MARKET DURING THE SUBPRIME MORTGAGE CRISIS

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 42-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ming-Chi CHEN ◽  
Hsiu-Jung TSAI ◽  
Tien-Foo SING ◽  
Chih-Yuan YANG
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
The United States ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Subprime Mortgage ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Contagion Effects ◽  
Mortgage Crisis ◽  
Systematic Risks ◽  
Subprime Mortgage Crisis ◽  
Capm Beta

This study empirically tests the contagion effects in stock and real estate investment trust (REIT) markets during the subprime mortgage crisis by using daily stock- and REIT-markets data from the following countries and international bodies: the United States, the European Union, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia, and the global REIT market. We found a significant and positive dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) coefficient between stock returns and REIT returns. The results revealed that the REIT markets responded early to market shocks and that the variances were higher in the post-crisis period than in the pre-crisis period. Evidence supporting the contagion effects includes increases in the means of the DCC coefficients during the post-crisis period. The Japanese and Australian REIT markets possess the lowest time-varying downside systematic risks. We also demonstrated that the “DCC E-beta” captures more significant downside linkages between market portfolios and expected REIT returns than does the standard CAPM beta.

scholarly journals The 2012 US Presidential Election Polls And Stock Returns

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamir Levy ◽  
Joseph Yagil
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
New York Times ◽  
Democratic Candidate ◽  
Election Poll ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Mitt Romney ◽  
Election Polls ◽  
The Relationship

<p class="ber"><span lang="EN-GB">This study investigates the relationship between daily US presidential election poll results and stock returns. The sample consists of the daily presidential election polls published in the New-York Times for the period between May 31 and November 5, 2012. They include the percentage of support for the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama, and the Republican candidate, Mitt Romney. The findings indicate that stock returns are positively related to the poll results that support the candidate favored to win the election.</span></p>

scholarly journals SUBPRIME MORTGAGE CRISIS IN THE UNITED STATES IN 2007–2008: CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES (PART I)

Ekonomika ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 93 (4) ◽  
pp. 85-118 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vaidotas Pajarskas ◽  
Aldona Jočienė
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mortgage Market ◽  
Subprime Mortgage ◽  
Market Expansion ◽  
Mortgage Crisis ◽  
Subprime Mortgage Crisis ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The main purpose of this article is to determine which factors and how contributed to the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2007–2008, what their causal links and effects on the markets and the whole economy were, and to assess what actions could have been taken by the Federal Reserve and the Government in order to mitigate or prevent the consequences of subprime mortgage crisis and housing bubble. In order to obtain the research results, the authors performed a qualitative analysis of the scientific literature on the course of events and their development that led to the subprime mortgage crisis, and focused on the insufficiently regulated home mortgage market expansion, the impact on the subprime mortgage crisis of financial innovations and financial engineering, poorly evaluated systemic risks and policy undertaken by both the U.S. Government and the Federal Reserve before and after the crisis. The quantitative research focused on two main parts: firstly, analysis of the dependence between the causes of subprime mortgage crisis and the consequences, using a statistical and regression analysis, and secondly, an alternative path the Government and the Federal Reserve could have taken in their policy actions and the results they could have produced. The authors believe that the results of the research could give useful guidelines to the central bankers and government officials on how to make long-term decisions that can help in preparing for the financial distress, mitigating the consequences when the crisis strikes, accelerating the recovery and even preventing the crisis it in the future. The second part of the qualitative research will appear in the next issue of the journal.

Introduction

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachael Kiddey
Keyword(s):  
Urban Population ◽  
Real Life ◽  
The United States ◽  
Growing Up ◽  
Rural County ◽  
Subprime Mortgage ◽  
Mortgage Crisis ◽  
The World ◽  
School Uniform ◽  
Post War

As I write this book, statistics show that there is an increasing housing shortage that has been projected, by 2025, to leave a third of the global urban population living in substandard housing or going without essentials to pay for their housing. Homelessness is an increasing problem worldwide. In Britain, where the fieldwork drawn on throughout this book was conducted, the latest available statistics show that rough sleeping rose by 31 per cent between autumn 2014 and autumn 2015. In the United States, the number of people living in severely overcrowded households has risen by 67 per cent since the effects of the subprime mortgage crisis triggered the recession of 2007. If we add to this data the rising number of people who are being forcibly displaced from their homes by war and other violence, the need to study how homelessness materializes and shapes the world around us becomes more urgent. As a child growing up by the sea in Devon, a rural county in the south-west of England, I initially encountered homelessness in two ways: the first was while on a rare shopping trip to Plymouth to buy school uniform in 1986. I was 8 years old. It was raining and the post-war architecture loomed greyer than usual. A man sitting on the pavement huddled his dog close to him, their heads down. I asked my mum what he was doing. ‘He’s homeless. Poor man! Don’t stare,’ she said. Her words rang in my ears as I tried, but failed, to conceive of having no home. The second encounter was more cheerful. I grew up in a house by the River Avon.5 When the tide is out, the riverbed becomes a mudflat, and in July and August it is green with samphire. A tramp called Albert, his yellow oilskins and bushy white beard making him seem to me a real-life Captain Birdseye, could be seen collecting samphire from the riverbed every summer until he died. A bench has since been erected in his memory. Albert was homeless too, but in a different, older way than the man I remember from Plymouth.

A hyper differential counterpublic: Muslim social media users and Islamophobia during the 2016 US presidential election

2019 ◽  
pp. 146144481989228
Author(s):  
Stine Eckert ◽  
Jade Metzger-Riftkin ◽  
Sean Kolhoff ◽  
Sydney O’Shay-Wallace
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Social Media ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
The United States ◽  
Muslim Population ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
Detroit Metropolitan Area ◽  
Internet Users ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Election Campaign

We interviewed 61 Muslims in 15 focus groups from the most visible Muslim population in the United States: the Detroit Metropolitan Area. Participants shared their experiences of and responses to Islamophobia on social media and face-to-face during the 2016 US presidential election campaign and aftermath. Applying Fraser’s and Squires’ theories of counterpublics, we developed an adapted understanding of counterpublics in collapsed contexts of online and face-to-face spaces. We argue that everyday Muslim internet users in the United States are an example of a hyper differential counterpublic. They face the pressures of near ubiquitous and ever evolving Islamophobic attacks, while needing to engage with the internet for personal and professional purposes. We suggest that hyper differential counterpublics operate in collapsed contexts of mixed, unimaginable publics, switch between group and individual responses, and craft hyper situational responses to discriminations case by case.

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