Coattails, Raincoats, and Congressional Election Outcomes

2019 ◽  
Vol 52 (2) ◽  
pp. 251-255
Author(s):  
Steven Rogers
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Congressional Election ◽  
Congressional Voting ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Average Rainfall ◽  
Bad Weather ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Identification Strategy

ABSTRACTMore than 60 years ago, Angus Campbell offered an explanation for why the president’s party regularly loses congressional seats in midterm elections. He argued that peripheral voters “surge” to the polls in presidential elections and support the president’s congressional co-partisans but “decline” to turn out in the midterm. In his turnout-based explanation for midterm loss, Campbell speculated that “bad weather or an epidemic may affect the vote” but largely dismissed weather’s utility to test his theory (Campbell 1960, 399). I revisit Campbell’s speculation and employ a new identification strategy to investigate the “surge and decline” account of midterm loss. I show that as the costs of voting increase—due to above-average rainfall on Election Day—the strength of the relationship between presidential and congressional voting weakens.

scholarly journals Partisan Cycles in Congressional Elections and the Macroeconomy

1989 ◽  
Vol 83 (2) ◽  
pp. 373-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto Alesina ◽  
Howard Rosenthal
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Congressional Election ◽  
Retrospective Voting ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
Voting Models ◽  
Better Than

In the postwar United States the president's party has always done worse in the midterm congressional elections than in the previous congressional election. Republican administrations exhibit below-average, and Democratic administrations above-average, economic growth in the first half of each term, whereas in the latter halves the two see equal growth. Our rational expectations model is consistent with these two regularities. In presidential elections, voters choose between two polarized candidates. They then use midterm elections to counterbalance the president's policies by strengthening the opposition in Congress. Since presidents of different parties are associated with different policies, our model predicts a (spurious) correlation between the state of the economy and elections. Our predictions contrast with those of retrospective voting models, in which voters reward the incumbent if the economy is doing well before the election. Our model performs empirically at least as well as, and often better than, alternative models.

Electoral Surprise and the Midterm Loss in US Congressional Elections

1999 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
pp. 507-521 ◽  
Author(s):  
KENNETH SCHEVE ◽  
MICHAEL TOMZ
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Macroeconomic Performance ◽  
Systematic Relationship ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
American Political Economy

Alberto Alesina and Howard Rosenthal argue that surprise about the outcomes of US presidential elections accounts for two important features of the American political economy: the regular loss of votes experienced by the president's party in midterm congressional elections, and the systematic relationship between the party of the incoming president and macroeconomic performance. Scholars recently have begun conducting rigorous tests of the relationship between surprise and economic performance, but no similar empirical work exists on how surprise affects midterm elections. In this article, we offer the first direct test of the proposition that electoral surprise drives the midterm loss. Our analysis shows that the more surprised moderate voters are about the outcome of a presidential election, the lower the probability that they will support the president's party in the following midterm contest.

Competing Explanations of Split-ticket Voting in American National Elections

2000 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 379-407 ◽  
Author(s):  
FRANCO MATTEI ◽  
JOHN S. HOWES
Keyword(s):  
Small Group ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Congressional Voting ◽  
Party Polarization ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Alternative Approach ◽  
Candidate Evaluations ◽  
Electoral Expectations ◽  
The Relationship

In this article, the authors propose an extension to Fiorina's balancing model based on voters' electoral expectations and test this extension and several implications of the theory. The authors examine the observed pattern of ticket-splitting and find it less consistent with a balancing perspective than with an alternative approach stressing separation between presidential and congressional voting. They also address the relationship between party polarization and ticket-splitting; their results indicate that the occurrence of split ballots does not increase with polarization. A further test identifies respondents with both the sophistication and the motive to engage in balancing behavior. According to this analysis, balancing considerations influence, at most, the very small group of voters whose sophistication and electoral expectations give them the tools and the incentive to pursue balance with a split ballot. Ticket-splitting appears to result far more from incumbency and cross-pressured voters holding candidate evaluations at odds with their partisan learnings.

scholarly journals PREDICTION FOR THE 2012 UNITED STATES PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION USING MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODEL

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 77-97
Author(s):  
Pankaj Sinha ◽  
Aastha Sharma Aastha Sharma ◽  
Harsh Vardhan Singh
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Multiple Regression Model ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Midterm Elections

This paper investigates the factors responsible for predicting 2012 U.S. Presidential election. Though contemporary discussions on Presidential election mention that unemployment rate will be a deciding factor in this election, it is found that unemployment rate is not significant for predicting the forthcoming Presidential election. Except GDP growth rate, various other economic factors like interest rate, inflation, public debt, change in oil and gold prices, budget deficit/surplus and exchange rate are also not significant for predicting the U.S. Presidential election outcome. Lewis-Beck and Rice (1982) proposed Gallup rating, obtained in June of the election year, as a significant indicator for forecasting the Presidential election. However, the present study finds that even though there exists a relationship between June Gallup rating and incumbent vote share in the Presidential election, the Gallup rating cannot be used as the sole indicator of the Presidential elections. Various other non-economic factors like scandals linked to the incumbent President and the performance of the two parties in the midterm elections are found to be significant. We study the influence of the above economic and non-economic variables on voting behavior in U.S. Presidential elections and develop a suitable regression model for predicting the 2012 U.S. Presidential election. The emergence of new non-economic factors reflects the changing dynamics of U.S. Presidential election outcomes. The proposed model forecasts that the Democrat candidate Mr. Barack Obama is likely to get a vote percentage between 51.818 % - 54.239 %, with 95% confidence interval.

Accessible Elections and Voter Turnout

2020 ◽  
pp. 51-68
Author(s):  
Michael Ritter
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
High Quality ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Early Voting ◽  
Panel Models ◽  
Election Administration ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Voting Laws

Chapter 4 evaluates the impact of convenience voting laws (in-person early voting, no-excuse absentee/mail voting, and same day registration) and election administration on individual-level voter turnout change from the 2010 to 2014 midterm elections and the 2008 to 2012 presidential elections using lagged panel models. Results show that non-voters are more likely to become voters when living in states with absentee/mail voting, in-person early voting, same day registration, and high-quality election administration, controlling for other factors. Same day registration is the most important of the three in both midterm and presidential elections, while early voting and absentee/mail voting have the largest effects in midterm elections.

Voters reward hard-working MPs: empirical evidence from the French legislative elections

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 469-483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abel François ◽  
Julien Navarro
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Political System ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Legislative Election

AbstractThis paper studies the relationship between incumbent MPs’ activities and their electoral fortune. We address this question in the context of the French political system characterized by an executive domination, a candidate-centered electoral system, and an electoral schedule maximizing the impact of the presidential elections. Given the contradictory influence of these three institutional features on the relationship between MPs’ activities and electoral results, the overall link can only be assessed empirically. We test the effects of several measurements of MPs’ activities on both their vote share and reelection probability in the 2007 legislative election. We show that MPs’ activities are differently correlated to both the incumbents’ vote shares in the first round and their reelection. Despite the weakness of the French National Assembly, several parliamentary activities, especially bill initiation, have a significant effect on MPs’ electoral prospects.

Reexamining the Link Between Economic Downturns and Racial Antipathy: Evidence That Prejudice Against Blacks Rises During Recessions

2018 ◽  
Vol 29 (10) ◽  
pp. 1584-1597 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily C. Bianchi ◽  
Erika V. Hall ◽  
Sarah Lee
Keyword(s):  
Implicit Attitudes ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Past Research ◽  
Hate Crimes ◽  
Congressional Election ◽  
Black Musicians ◽  
Black Politicians ◽  
Economic Downturns ◽  
The Relationship

Scholars have long argued that economic downturns intensify racial discord. However, empirical support for this relationship has been mixed, with most recent studies finding no evidence that downturns provoke greater racial animosity. Yet most past research has focused on hate crimes, a particularly violent and relatively infrequent manifestation of racial antipathy. In this article, we reexamine the relationship between economic downturns and racial acrimony using more subtle indicators of racial animosity. We found that during economic downturns, Whites felt less warmly about Blacks (Studies 1 and 2), held more negative explicit and implicit attitudes about Blacks, were more likely to condone the use of stereotypes, and were more willing to regard inequality between groups as natural and acceptable (Study 2). Moreover, during downturns, Black musicians (Study 3) and Black politicians (Study 4) were less likely to secure a musical hit or win a congressional election.

scholarly journals The Relationship between in-Vehicle Technologies and Self-Regulation among Older Drivers

Geriatrics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 23
Author(s):  
Austin M. Svancara ◽  
Leon Villavicencio ◽  
Tara Kelley-Baker ◽  
William J. Horrey ◽  
Lisa J. Molnar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mobile Phone ◽  
Self Regulation ◽  
Older Drivers ◽  
Left Turn ◽  
Driving Behaviors ◽  
Regulatory Behavior ◽  
Vehicle Technologies ◽  
Bad Weather ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
The Relationship

The study sought to understand the relationship between in-vehicle technologies (IVTs) and self-regulatory behaviors among older drivers. In a large multi-site study of 2990 older drivers, self-reported data on the presence of IVTs and avoidance of various driving behaviors (talking on a mobile phone while driving, driving at night, driving in bad weather, and making left turns when there is no left turn arrow) were recorded. Self-reports were used to identify whether avoidance was due to self-regulation. Hierarchical logistic regressions were used to determine whether the presence of a particular IVT predicted the likelihood of a given self-regulatory behavior after controlling for other factors. Results suggest that the presence of Integrated Bluetooth/Voice Control systems are related to a reduced likelihood of avoiding talking on a mobile phone while driving due to self-regulation (OR = 0.37, 95% CI = 0.29–0.47). The presence of a Navigation Assistance system was related to a reduced likelihood of avoiding talking on a mobile phone while driving (OR= 0.65, 95% CI = 0.50–0.84) and avoiding driving at night due to self-regulation (OR = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.64–1.00). Present findings suggest in-vehicle technologies may differently influence the self-regulatory behaviors of older drivers.

The Impact of Candidates’ Negative Traits on Vote Choice in New Democracies: A Test Based on Presidential Elections in South Korea

2018 ◽  
Vol 54 (2) ◽  
pp. 211-228
Author(s):  
HeeMin Kim ◽  
Jungho Roh
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
New Democracies ◽  
Personal Traits ◽  
South Korean ◽  
Election Studies ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Western Democracies

The impact of candidates’ negative traits (CNTs) on voting behavior has received significant attention in election studies in recent decades. However, scholarly efforts have focused primarily on elections in advanced Western democracies, largely overlooking the relationship between candidates’ personal traits and the electorate’s voting behaviors in the context of new democracies. In this study, we fill this gap by investigating the impact of CNTs on the electorate’s vote choices in South Korean presidential elections. Our study of CNTs in South Korea shows that CNTs have statistically significant effects on the electorate’s vote choices. Our findings are particularly relevant because many new democracies are implementing fair and free elections, and the elites under previous authoritarian regimes are running in these elections.

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