scholarly journals 2016 HES PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS: STATISTICAL INFERENCE IN ECONOMICS, 1920–1965: CHANGES IN MEANING AND PRACTICE

2017 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 149-173 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeff Biddle
Keyword(s):  
Probability Theory ◽  
Statistical Inference ◽  
Empirical Research ◽  
Presidential Address ◽  
The Us ◽  
Cowles Commission ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
Over Time

I review changes over time in the meaning that economists in the US attributed to the phrase “statistical inference,” as well as changes in how inference was conducted. Prior to WWII, leading statistical economists rejected probability theory as a source of measures and procedures to be used in statistical inference. Trygve Haavelmo and the early Cowles Commission econometricians developed an approach to statistical inference based on probability theory, but the arguments they offered in defense of this approach were not always responsive to the concerns of earlier empirical economists that the data available to economists did not satisfy the assumptions required for such an approach. Despite this, after a period of about twenty-five years, a consensus developed that methods of inference derived from probability theory were an almost essential part of empirical research in economics. I conclude with some speculation on possible reasons for this transformation in thinking about statistical inference.

Statistical Inference in Economics in the 1920s and 1930s

2021 ◽  
Vol 53 (6) ◽  
pp. 53-80
Author(s):  
Jeff Biddle
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Probability Theory ◽  
Economic Analysis ◽  
Statistical Inference ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Interesting Case ◽  
Agricultural Products ◽  
Department Of Agriculture ◽  
The Us

Statistical inference is the process of drawing conclusions from samples of statistical data about things not fully described or recorded in those samples. During the 1920s, economists in the United States articulated a general approach to statistical inference that downplayed the value of the inferential measures derived from probability theory that later came to be central to the idea of statistical inference in economics. This approach is illustrated by the practices of economists of the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the US Department of Agriculture, who regularly analyzed statistical samples to forecast supplies of various agricultural products. Forecasting represents an interesting case for studying the development of inferential methods, as analysts receive regular feedback on the effectiveness of their inferences when forecasts are compared with actual events.

scholarly journals THE COMPETITIVENESS OF INDONESIA'S EXPORT TO UNITED STATES, 1986-2003: A SHIFT-SHARE ANALYSIS

2007 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 36
Author(s):  
Ahmad Helmy Fuady
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Other ◽  
Republic Of Korea ◽  
Single Digit ◽  
The Us ◽  
Asian Economies ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
Over Time

The objective of this paper is to examine the competitiveness of Indonesia's exports to the United States (US) market, compared to other Asian economies, namely Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, China, Republic of Korea and India, over the period of 1986-2003. A shift-share method is applied to single digit SITC US imports data from those countries. It found that the competitiveness of Indonesia's exports changes over time. The Indonesia's exports reached its best performance in the period 1992-1997. However, after the 1997 economic crisis, Indonesia faces a serious problem, since none of its export has competitiveness in the US market, compared to the reference economy. The analysis also shows that China has consistently posed a serious pressure not only for Indonesia, but also for the other Asian economies.

Spontaneous fetal loss: a note on rates and some implications

1975 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 421-433 ◽  
Author(s):  
Phillips Cutright
Keyword(s):  
Marital Fertility ◽  
Fetal Loss ◽  
Common View ◽  
Fertility Trends ◽  
Genetic Abnormalities ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Common ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
National Fertility Study ◽  
Over Time

SummaryAfter reviewing recent work indicating that the level of spontaneous fetal loss (SFL) is much higher than estimates derived from traditional sources, this paper assesses some implications of differential rates of SFL by race and maternal health and challenges the common view that early SFL is largely a function of genetic abnormalities of the fetus and thus subject to little change over time. If, as is argued here, SFL changes over time in response to changing environmental conditions, fertility trends may be affected by environmental trends. An example of the possible impact of declining SFL on marital fertility rates over the period 1940–60 in the US is provided. The paper concludes with work that uses new estimates of SFL rates to measure the extent to which induced abortion may be unnecessary because the pregnancy would terminate spontaneously, and then estimates the extent to which contraceptive failure rates, as measured in the US National Fertility Study of 1965, may be deflated due to under-reporting of SFL.

The Experience of Feminism

1989 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-146 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ellen B. Kimmel
Keyword(s):  
Lived Experience ◽  
Thematic Analysis ◽  
Presidential Address ◽  
Phenomenological Method ◽  
Analysis Techniques ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
Over Time

For this Presidential Address, Fellows of Division 35 were surveyed by means of an open-ended questionnaire about their experience of feminism. The narrative data of a sample of the 51 replies received were analyzed using thematic analysis techniques adapted from an existential phenomenological method. Participants shared many themes, indicating that the experience of feminism can be defined through reports of its lived experience and that this experience changes over time.

Changes in responses to nicotine vaping product warnings and leaflets in England compared with Canada, the US and Australia: findings from the 2016–2018 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Surveys

2020 ◽  
pp. tobaccocontrol-2020-055739
Author(s):  
Eve Violet Taylor ◽  
Katherine A East ◽  
Ann McNeill ◽  
Michael Cummings ◽  
James Thrasher ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tobacco Control ◽  
Health And Safety ◽  
Nicotine Addiction ◽  
Warning Labels ◽  
Tobacco Products ◽  
Probability Sampling ◽  
Black And White ◽  
The Us ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
Over Time

Background and aimsIn May 2017, black-and-white text nicotine addiction warning labels (‘warnings’) and health and safety leaflets (‘leaflets’) became mandatory for nicotine vaping products (NVPs) in England, in accordance with the European Union’s Tobacco Products Directive. We compared changes over time in noticing warnings and leaflets, recall of warnings about nicotine and concerns about using NVP due to noticing warnings in England, compared with Canada, the US and Australia, where no warnings and leaflets were mandated.Design19 005 adult (aged 18+) NVP users, smokers and quitters of cigarettes and NVP from the 2016 and 2018 International Tobacco Control Four Country Smoking and Vaping Surveys in England, Canada, the US and Australia, recruited via probability and non-probability sampling.FindingsNoticing warnings increased in England from 4.9% (2016) to 9.4% (2018) (adjusted OR/AOR=1.64, 95% CI=1.15–2.36); this change was larger than changes in Canada (AOR=2.51, 95% CI=1.71–3.69) and the US (AOR=2.22, 95% CI=1.45–3.39). Recall of a nicotine warning increased in England from 86% (2016) to 94.9% (2018) (AOR=5.50, 95% CI=1.57–19.27) but not significantly elsewhere. Noticing leaflets increased in England from 14.6% (2016) to 19.1% (2018) (AOR=1.42, 95% CI=1.15–1.74); this change was larger than in Canada (AOR=1.42, 95% CI=1.12–1.79), the US (AOR=1.55, 95% CI=1.17–2.06) and Australia (AOR=1.51, 95% CI=1.02–2.22). Among those noticing warnings, concern about NVP use did not change significantly between 2016 and 2018 (all countries p>0.081).ConclusionsIntroduction of mandatory NVP warnings and leaflets in England was associated with small increases in noticing them but not with changes in concerns about NVP use.

Abstract P112: Thirty-year Trends in the Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

Circulation ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 141 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kunali P Ghelani ◽  
Lin Yee Y Chen ◽  
Faye L Norby ◽  
Elsayed Z SOLIMAN ◽  
Silvia Koton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
African American ◽  
African Americans ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The Us ◽  
Atherosclerosis Risk ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
Over Time

Objective: To evaluate the 30-year trends in the incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) cohort and identify race and sex differences in these trends. Background: Long-term data to study recent trends in the incidence of AF, overall and across sex and race groups, are scarce. Methods: We included 15,343 men and women aged 45 to 65 in 1987-89 without AF from 4 US communities in the ARIC cohort. Incident AF was identified based on study electrocardiograms, hospital discharge codes, and death certificates through 2017. We calculated age and time-period specific incidence rates (IR) of AF. We used Poisson regression to calculate IR ratios of AF over time adjusting for age, sex and race. Results: A total of 3,241 AF cases were identified during a mean (SD) follow up of 22 (8.4) years (599 in African Americans, 2642 in whites, 1582 in women, 1659 in men). Overall, the IR of AF in the ARIC cohort was 9.6 per 1000 person-years (6.9 in African American, 10.5 in whites, 8.1 in women, and 11.6 in men). Age-specific IR by time-period did not show significant changes over time (Figure). In a model adjusted for sex, race, and age group, the rate of AF did not change over time from 1987-1991 to 2012-2017 (IR ratio=1.10, 95% CI = 0.89-1.36 comparing 2012-2017 to 1987-1991). Similarly, no evidence of changes over time in AF rates were identified in men or women, whites or African Americans separately. Conclusions: Even though the incident rates of AF increase as age increases, our analysis provided evidence suggesting that the overall rates of AF have not changed over time in a multicenter cohort of African American and white individuals in the US from 1987 to 2017.

Isolationism revisited: seven persistent myths in the contemporary American foreign policy debate

2005 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 237-261 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Dunn
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Political Discourse ◽  
American Foreign Policy ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
The Political ◽  
Policy Debate ◽  
The Us ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
Over Time ◽  
The Way

‘Isolationism’ is a much used and abused term in the contemporary American foreign policy debate. This article seeks to illuminate some of the misunderstandings that surround the use of this term by challenging seven persistent myths about isolationism. In so doing it sheds light on the often unarticulated role that this and other ideas play in the US foreign policy debate. It also seeks to demonstrate the nature of the main ideational cleavages within this debate which the isolationist name-calling obscures, and to show the way in which language is used in the political discourse and how its meaning in this debate changes over time.

Comparison of two devices for measuring exercise transcutaneous oxygen pressures in patients with claudication

VASA ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 44 (5) ◽  
pp. 355-362 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie Urban ◽  
Alban Fouasson-Chailloux ◽  
Isabelle Signolet ◽  
Christophe Colas Ribas ◽  
Mathieu Feuilloy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Oxygen Pressure ◽  
Optical Sensors ◽  
Chemical Sensors ◽  
Transcutaneous Oxygen ◽  
Starting Values ◽  
Two Systems ◽  
Transcutaneous Oxygen Pressure ◽  
New Sensors ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
Over Time

Abstract. Summary: Background: We aimed at estimating the agreement between the Medicap® (photo-optical) and Radiometer® (electro-chemical) sensors during exercise transcutaneous oxygen pressure (tcpO2) tests. Our hypothesis was that although absolute starting values (tcpO2rest: mean over 2 minutes) might be different, tcpO2-changes over time and the minimal value of the decrease from rest of oxygen pressure (DROPmin) results at exercise shall be concordant between the two systems. Patients and methods: Forty seven patients with arterial claudication (65 + / - 7 years) performed a treadmill test with 5 probes each of the electro-chemical and photo-optical devices simultaneously, one of each system on the chest, on each buttock and on each calf. Results: Seventeen Medicap® probes disconnected during the tests. tcpO2rest and DROPmin values were higher with Medicap® than with Radiometer®, by 13.7 + / - 17.1 mm Hg and 3.4 + / - 11.7 mm Hg, respectively. Despite the differences in absolute starting values, changes over time were similar between the two systems. The concordance between the two systems was approximately 70 % for classification of test results from DROPmin. Conclusions: Photo-optical sensors are promising alternatives to electro-chemical sensors for exercise oximetry, provided that miniaturisation and weight reduction of the new sensors are possible.

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