Forecasting U.K. Population Mortality Allowing for Age, Period and Cohort Effects

2009 ◽  
Vol 15 (S1) ◽  
pp. 73-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. O. Forfar
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Cohort Effects ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Female Mortality ◽  
Mortality Experience ◽  
National Statistics ◽  
Period Effects ◽  
Males And Females ◽  
Population Mortality

ABSTRACTThe mortality data (registered deaths and population size) over the years 1961–2007 for the population of England and Wales and for Scotland were obtained from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and from the Scottish Registrar General. This paper addresses the following questions:(i) Is there statistical evidence for a cohort effect (i.e. a generation effect separate from the period effect) being present in the data?(ii) Do both males and females exhibit similar cohort (generation) effects?(iii) Are period effects (i.e. the improvement in mortality with time) more significant than cohort effects?(iv) How should one allow, in forecasts of population mortality, for age, period and cohort effects?(v) Is it sensible to combine male and female mortality experience to determine the period effect and the cohort effect?(vi) How do the forecasts for the expectation of life at birth, using the Extended-Lee–Carter-Combined (ELCC) model (described in the paper) differ from the (2008 based) Office of National Statistics (ONS) forecasts of the expectation of life at birth?

scholarly journals Age period cohort analysis of chewing ability in Korea from 2007 to 2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nam-Hee Kim ◽  
Ichiro Kawachi
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Cohort Effects ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
The Past ◽  
Health And Nutrition ◽  
Period Effects ◽  
Chewing Ability ◽  
Main Variable ◽  
Observation Period

AbstractThere have been marked improvements in oral health in Korea during the past 10 years, including chewing ability. We sought to disentangle age, period, and cohort effects in chewing ability between 2007 and 2018. We analyzed data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The main variable was chewing difficulty, which was assessed among participants aged 20 years and older. APC analysis revealed three trends in chewing difficulty: (1) there was an increase in chewing difficulty starting at around 60 years of age (age effect), (2) there was a steady decrease in chewing difficulty during the observation period (period effect), and (3) chewing ability improved with each successive generation born after 1951 (cohort effect). Regarding recent improvements in chewing ability, cohort effects were somewhat more important than period effects.

scholarly journals All-Cause and Cancer Mortality Trends in Macheng, China (1984–2013): An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (10) ◽  
pp. 2068
Author(s):  
Chunhui Li ◽  
Songbo Hu ◽  
Chuanhua Yu
Keyword(s):  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Age Effect ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Males And Females

The aim was to study the variation trends of all-cause and cancer mortality during 1984–2013 in Macheng City, China. The mortality data were collected from Macheng City disease surveillance points system and Hubei Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The model life table system was used to adjust mortality rates due to an under-reporting problem. An age-period-cohort model and intrinsic estimator algorithm were used to estimate the age effect, period effect, and cohort effect of all-cause mortality and cancer mortality for males and females. Age effect of all-cause mortality for both sexes increased with age, while the age effect of cancer mortality for both sexes reached a peak at the age group of 55–59 years old and then decreased. The relative risks (RRs) of all-cause mortality for males and females declined with the period and decreased by 51.13% and 63.27% during the whole study period, respectively. Furthermore, the period effect of cancer mortality in both sexes decreased at first and then increased. The cohort effect of all-cause and cancer mortality for both sexes born after 1904 presented the pattern of “rise first and then fall,” and decreased by 82.18% and 90.77% from cohort 1904–1908 to 1989–1993, respectively; especially, the risk of all-cause and cancer mortality for both sexes born before 1949 was much higher than that for those born after 1949.

scholarly journals Age-period-cohort effects in half a century of motor vehicle theft in the United States

Crime Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Dixon ◽  
Graham Farrell
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Motor Vehicle ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cohort Effects ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Motor Vehicle Theft ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Vehicle Theft ◽  
Period Effects

AbstractAdopting and refining O’Brien’s S-constraint approach, we estimate age-period-cohort effects for motor vehicle theft offences in the United States for over half a century from 1960. Taking the well-established late-teen peak offending age as given, we find period effects reducing theft in the 1970 s, and period, but particularly cohort effects, reducing crime from the 1990s onwards. We interpret these effects as consistent with variation in the prevailing level of crime opportunities, particularly the ease with which vehicles could be stolen. We interpret the post-1990s cohort effect as triggered by a period effect that operated differentially by age: improved vehicle security reduced juvenile offending dramatically, to the extent that cohorts experienced reduced offending across the life-course. This suggests the prevailing level of crime opportunities in juvenile years is an important determinant of rates of onset and continuance in offending in birth cohorts. We outline additional implications for research and practice.

scholarly journals Age, Period, and Cohort Effects on Suicide Mortality in South Korea, 1992–2015

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (8) ◽  
pp. 1580 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soonjoo Park ◽  
Yeong-Jun Song ◽  
Jinseob Kim ◽  
Myung Ki ◽  
Ji-Yeon Shin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Identification Problem ◽  
Vulnerable Groups ◽  
Suicide Mortality ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Young Females ◽  
Males And Females ◽  
Older Subjects ◽  
Birth Cohort Effect

Although the effects of age, period, and cohort (APC) on suicide are important, previous work in this area may have been invalid because of an identification problem. We analyzed these effects under three different scenarios to identify vulnerable groups and thus overcame the identification problem. We extracted the annual numbers of suicides from the National Death Register of Korea (1992–2015) and estimated the APC effects. The annual average suicide rates in 1992–2015 were 31.5 and 14.7 per 100,000 males and females, respectively. The APC effects on suicide were similar in both sexes. The age effect was clearly higher in older subjects, in contrast to the minimal changes apparent during earlier adulthood. The birth cohort effect showed an inverted U shape; a higher cohort effect was evident in females born in the early 1980s when period drift was larger than 3.7%/year. Period effect increased sharply during the early 1990s and 2000s. We found that elderly and young females may be at a particularly high risk of suicide in Korea.

Cohort Effects in the Prevalence of Caries in Child Populations in Tanzania

1989 ◽  
Vol 68 (12) ◽  
pp. 1777-1780 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.E. Frencken ◽  
M.A. Van't Hof ◽  
G.-J. Truin ◽  
B.S. Lembariti ◽  
K.G. König
Keyword(s):  
Longitudinal Study ◽  
Oral Health ◽  
Longitudinal Studies ◽  
Developing Country ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Cohort Effects ◽  
External Information ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
Period Effects

In 1984, a four-year mixed-longitudinal study of oral health was begun in Morogoro Town and Morogoro District, Tanzania. Its main goal was to detect a possible upward trend in prevalence of caries in child cohorts in this developing country. The sample consisted of 722 seven-to nine-year-olds in 1984, 833 seven- to 11-year-olds in 1986, and 989 seven- to 13-year-olds in 1988. Mixed-longitudinal studies provide the opportunity for application of the Age-Period-Cohort analysis. On the basis of external information, either age and/or cohort and/or period effects can thus be isolated. Apart from significant age and period effects, a cohort effect was found, indicating that the prevalence of caries has decreased in these child populations between 1984 and 1988.

Cohort Trends in Youth Suicide in Australia 1964–1997

2000 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 408-412
Author(s):  
Michael Lynskey ◽  
Louisa Degenhardt ◽  
Wayne Hall
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Psychosocial Problems ◽  
Suicide Mortality ◽  
Youth Suicide ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Period Effects ◽  
Gender And Age ◽  
Males And Females ◽  
Australian Bureau Of Statistics

Objective: This paper examines trends in the rate of suicide among young Australians aged 15–24 years from 1964 to 1997 and presents an age-period-cohort analysis of these trends. Method: Study design consisted of an age-period-cohort analysis of suicide mortality in Australian youth aged between 15 and 24 for the years 1964–1997 inclusive. Data sources were Australian Bureau of Statistics data on: numbers of deaths due to suicide by gender and age at death; and population at risk in each of eight birth cohorts (1940–1944, 1945–1949, 1950–1954, 1955–1959, 1960–1964, 1965–1969, 1970–1974, and 1975–1979). Main outcome measures were population rates of deaths among males and females in each birth cohort attributed to suicide in each year 1964–1997. Results: The rate of suicide deaths among Australian males aged 15–24 years increased from 8.7 per 100 000 in 1964 to 30.9 per 100 000 in 1997, with the rate among females changing little over the period, from 5.2 per 100 000 in 1964 to 7.1 per 100 000 in 1997. While the rate of deaths attributed to suicide increased over the birth cohorts, analyses revealed that these increases were largely due to period effects, with suicide twice as likely among those aged 15–24 years in 1985–1997 than between 1964 and 1969. Conclusions: The rate of youth suicide in Australia has increased since 1964, particularly among males. This increase can largely be attributed to period effects rather than to a cohort effect and has been paralleled by an increased rate of youth suicides internationally and by an increase in other psychosocial problems including psychiatric illness, criminal offending and substance use disorders.

scholarly journals Urban and rural stroke mortality rates in China between 1988 and 2013: An age-period-cohort analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 680-690 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jingjing Li ◽  
Boyang Li ◽  
Fengfan Zhang ◽  
Yang Sun
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Cumulative Risk ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Stroke Mortality ◽  
Health Statistics ◽  
Rural Regions ◽  
Period Effects

Objective To evaluate effects attributable to age, time period and birth cohort, on stroke mortality data from urban and rural regions in China between 1988 and 2013. Methods Mortality data were obtained from the Chinese Health Statistics Annual Report (1987–2001) and Chinese Health Statistics Yearbooks (2003–2014). Population data were obtained from population censuses (i.e. 1982, 1990, 2000 and 2010). Data were analysed using an age-period-cohort (APC) model and intrinsic estimation (IE) method. Results The age effect suggested that all older residents had higher stroke mortality risk than younger residents. Period effect showed that compared with figures for 1988, stroke mortality in 2013 was 1.8 times higher for urban regions and 2.4 times higher for rural regions. After controlling for age and period effects, cohorts born before the Chinese economic reform had a steady decline in stroke mortality. However, mortality rates increased and fluctuated in post-reform cohorts. Conclusions This APC-IE analysis identified a modest period effect with large age and cohort contributions to both the overall mortality and the disparity between urban and rural stroke mortality. Identifying early life and cumulative risk factors for stroke, improving equality in stroke prevention and care are needed to reduce the stroke mortality in China.

scholarly journals Sex Differences in the Heterogeneous Dynamic Incidence of Oral Cancer: A Comparison between Taiwan and Thailand

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Pallop Siewchaisakul ◽  
Pongdech Sarakarn ◽  
Patravoot Vatanasapt ◽  
Sam Li-Sheng Chen ◽  
Amy Ming-Fang Yen
Keyword(s):  
Oral Cancer ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Cohort Effects ◽  
Change Points ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Incidence Trends ◽  
Cancer Registry Data ◽  
Males And Females ◽  
Two Populations

Background. This study aims at investigating differences in oral cancer (OC) incidence trends between two populations in Taiwan and Thailand. Methods. We used the population-based cancer registry data from Taiwan (1979-2016) and Khon Kaen (KK), Thailand (1985-2016). We performed joinpoint analyses to detect the trend change points for the OC incidence and to quantify the time trends in both sexes and regions. Age-period-cohort curves were plotted to explain the incidence trends. Results. In Taiwan, the estimated annual increases in OC were approximately 6.0% in males, although the increase slowed after 2009, and 2.6% in females. In KK, the OC incidence steadily decreased by -2.5% per year in females, but there was no obvious change in males. A strong period effect observed in those aged 45-69 years in Taiwanese males resulted in a peak incidence in the middle age group. Decreased period and cohort effects were observed in females in KK. Conclusions. Taiwanese males are the predominant sex affected by OC in Taiwan, and the trend has decelerated since 2009. Age, period, and cohort effects were different between males and females in the two regions.

scholarly journals Long-Term Trends of Liver Cancer Incidence and Mortality in China 1990–2017: A Joinpoint and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (16) ◽  
pp. 2878 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fang Wang ◽  
Sumaira Mubarik ◽  
Yu Zhang ◽  
Lu Wang ◽  
Yafeng Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Liver Cancer ◽  
Cancer Incidence ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Cohort Effects ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
Long Term Trends

Liver cancer (LC) is one of the most common causes of cancer-related deaths: this study aims to present the long-term trends and age–period–cohort effects of the incidence of and mortality from LC in China during 1990–2017. Incidence and mortality data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. We determined trends in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and mortality rate (ASMR) using Joinpoint regression. An age–period–cohort (APC) analysis was performed to describe the long-term trends with intrinsic estimator methods. The ASMR decreased markedly before 2013 and increased thereafter, with overall average annual percent change (AAPC) values of −0.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): −0.6%, −0.3%) for men and −1.3% (−1.6%, −1.0%) for women during 1990–2017. The ASIR significantly increased by 0.2% (0.1%, 0.3%) in men and decreased by 1.1% (−1.2%, −1.0%) in women from 1990 to 2017. The risks of LC incidence and mortality increased with age in both genders. The period effect risk ratios (RRs) of incidence and mortality displayed similar monotonic increasing trends in men and remained stable in women. The cohort effect showed an overall downward trend and almost overlapping incidence and mortality in both genders, and later birth cohorts experienced lower RRs than previous birth cohorts. Older age, recent period, and birth before 1923 were associated with a higher risk of liver cancer incidence and mortality. The net age and period effects showed an increasing trend, while the cohort effects presented a decreasing trend in incidence and mortality risk. As China’s population aging worsens and with the popularization of unhealthy lifestyles, the burden caused by liver cancer will remain a huge challenge in China’s future.

Suicide in New Zealand 1957–1986: The Influence of Age, Period and Birth-Cohort

1991 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 181-190 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keren Skegg ◽  
Brian Cox
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Carbon Monoxide Poisoning ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Cohort Effects ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Elderly Men ◽  
Suicide Rates

New Zealand suicide rates from 1957 to 1986 were analysed for age, period and cohort effects. Cumulative suicide rates were relatively stable but more complex patterns were revealed by detailed analysis. There was a steadily increasing rate in young men and a recent increase in elderly men. Reduced mortality rates in equivalent categories of accidental and “undetermined” deaths could have accounted for only a proportion of these increases. A cohort effect was noted in men, with increasing risks of suicide in the young for successive birth-cohorts born from 1947 onwards. In women a period effect was likely, with increasing rates for all age-groups between 1957–61 and 1962–66, followed by a decline recently among all except the youngest age-groups. These trends in women may have been largely due to changes in barbiturate prescribing. In both sexes poisoning declined as a method of suicide, while hanging and carbon monoxide poisoning increased. Firearm suicides also increased in men. The implications of these results for prevention are considered.

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