scholarly journals Thresholds of temperature change for mass extinctions

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Haijun Song ◽  
David B. Kemp ◽  
Li Tian ◽  
Daoliang Chu ◽  
Huyue Song ◽  
...  

AbstractClimate change is a critical factor affecting biodiversity. However, the quantitative relationship between temperature change and extinction is unclear. Here, we analyze magnitudes and rates of temperature change and extinction rates of marine fossils through the past 450 million years (Myr). The results show that both the rate and magnitude of temperature change are significantly positively correlated with the extinction rate of marine animals. Major mass extinctions in the Phanerozoic can be linked to thresholds in climate change (warming or cooling) that equate to magnitudes >5.2 °C and rates >10 °C/Myr. The significant relationship between temperature change and extinction still exists when we exclude the five largest mass extinctions of the Phanerozoic. Our findings predict that a temperature increase of 5.2 °C above the pre-industrial level at present rates of increase would likely result in mass extinction comparable to that of the major Phanerozoic events, even without other, non-climatic anthropogenic impacts.

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 325-339 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Schneider ◽  
C. L. R. Laizé ◽  
M. C. Acreman ◽  
M. Flörke

Abstract. Worldwide, flow regimes are being modified by various anthropogenic impacts and climate change induces an additional risk. Rising temperatures, declining snow cover and changing precipitation patterns will interact differently at different locations. Consequently, in distinct climate zones, unequal consequences can be expected in matters of water stress, flood risk, water quality, and food security. In particular, river ecosystems and their vital ecosystem services will be compromised as their species richness and composition have evolved over long time under natural flow conditions. This study aims at evaluating the exclusive impacts of climate change on river flow regimes in Europe. Various flow characteristics are taken into consideration and diverse dynamics are identified for each distinct climate zone in Europe. In order to simulate present-day natural flow regimes and future flow regimes under climate change, the global hydrology model WaterGAP3 is applied. All calculations for current and future conditions (2050s) are carried out on a 5' × 5' European grid. To address uncertainty, bias-corrected climate forcing data of three different global climate models are used to drive WaterGAP3. Finally, the hydrological alterations of different flow characteristics are quantified by the Indicators of Hydrological Alteration approach. Results of our analysis indicate that on the European scale, climate change can be expected to modify flow regimes remarkably. This is especially the case in the Mediterranean (due to drier conditions with reduced precipitation across the year) and in the boreal climate zone (due to reduced snowmelt, increased precipitation, and strong temperature rises). In the temperate climate zone, impacts increase from oceanic to continental. Regarding single flow characteristics, strongest impacts on timing were found for the boreal climate zone. This applies for both high and low flows. Flow magnitudes, in turn, will be predominantly altered in the Mediterranean but also in the Northern climates. At the end of this study, typical future flow regimes under climate change are illustrated for each climate zone.


2006 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 145-165 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Masson-Delmotte ◽  
G. Dreyfus ◽  
P. Braconnot ◽  
S. Johnsen ◽  
J. Jouzel ◽  
...  

Abstract. Ice cores provide unique archives of past climate and environmental changes based only on physical processes. Quantitative temperature reconstructions are essential for the comparison between ice core records and climate models. We give an overview of the methods that have been developed to reconstruct past local temperatures from deep ice cores and highlight several points that are relevant for future climate change. We first analyse the long term fluctuations of temperature as depicted in the long Antarctic record from EPICA Dome C. The long term imprint of obliquity changes in the EPICA Dome C record is highlighted and compared to simulations conducted with the ECBILT-CLIO intermediate complexity climate model. We discuss the comparison between the current interglacial period and the long interglacial corresponding to marine isotopic stage 11, ~400 kyr BP. Previous studies had focused on the role of precession and the thresholds required to induce glacial inceptions. We suggest that, due to the low eccentricity configuration of MIS 11 and the Holocene, the effect of precession on the incoming solar radiation is damped and that changes in obliquity must be taken into account. The EPICA Dome C alignment of terminations I and VI published in 2004 corresponds to a phasing of the obliquity signals. A conjunction of low obliquity and minimum northern hemisphere summer insolation is not found in the next tens of thousand years, supporting the idea of an unusually long interglacial ahead. As a second point relevant for future climate change, we discuss the magnitude and rate of change of past temperatures reconstructed from Greenland (NorthGRIP) and Antarctic (Dome C) ice cores. Past episodes of temperatures above the present-day values by up to 5°C are recorded at both locations during the penultimate interglacial period. The rate of polar warming simulated by coupled climate models forced by a CO2 increase of 1% per year is compared to ice-core-based temperature reconstructions. In Antarctica, the CO2-induced warming lies clearly beyond the natural rhythm of temperature fluctuations. In Greenland, the CO2-induced warming is as fast or faster than the most rapid temperature shifts of the last ice age. The magnitude of polar temperature change in response to a quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 is comparable to the magnitude of the polar temperature change from the Last Glacial Maximum to present-day. When forced by prescribed changes in ice sheet reconstructions and CO2 changes, climate models systematically underestimate the glacial-interglacial polar temperature change.


Author(s):  
Doina Drăguşin

The study aims to analyse the impact of the drought phenomenon on groundwater in Dobrogea Plateau, taking into account the specific climatic and hydrological factors and especially the geological and structural context in which it delineates the main hydrostructures. The groundwater is subject to climatic and anthropogenic impacts whose weight are difficult to assess, so until now, a hydrogeological drought index was not identified. The effects of climate change impact are reflected in the fluctuations of the piezometric surface of the shallow aquifers, the deepest aquifers being influenced rather by socio-economic issues. To achieve the objective of the research, the available data (climate, hydrological and hydrogeological) were processed using GIS and Excel softs and the results (maps, graphs, tables) were interpreted and correlated in some relevant conclusions.


Author(s):  
Costas A. Varotsos ◽  
Yuri A. Mazei

There is increasing evidence that extreme weather events such as frequent and intense cold spells and heat waves cause unprecedented deaths and diseases in both developed and developing countries. Thus, they require extensive and immediate research to limit the risks involved. Average temperatures in Europe in June–July 2019 were the hottest ever measured and attributed to climate change. The problem, however, of a thorough study of natural climate change is the lack of experimental data from the long past, where anthropogenic activity was then very limited. Today, this problem can be successfully resolved using, inter alia, biological indicators that have provided reliable environmental information for thousands of years in the past. The present study used high-resolution quantitative reconstruction data derived from biological records of Lake Silvaplana sediments covering the period 1181–1945. The purpose of this study was to determine whether a slight temperature change in the past could trigger current or future intense temperature change or changes. Modern analytical tools were used for this purpose, which eventually showed that temperature fluctuations were persistent. That is, they exhibit long memory with scaling behavior, which means that an increase (decrease) in temperature in the past was always followed by another increase (decrease) in the future with multiple amplitudes. Therefore, the increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme temperature events due to climate change will be more pronounced than expected. This will affect human well-being and mortality more than that estimated in today’s modeling scenarios. The scaling property detected here can be used for more accurate monthly to decadal forecasting of extreme temperature events. Thus, it is possible to develop improved early warning systems that will reduce the public health risk at local, national, and international levels.


1992 ◽  
Vol 68 (4) ◽  
pp. 462-471 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark W. Schwartz

Climatologists have observed a consistent increase in atmospheric CO2 over the past 30 years. It is predicted that CO2 levels could double the pre-industrial level of 280 ppm by the year 2100, perphaps much earlier. Climate models of doubled atmospheric CO2 predict that mean temperatures will increase between 1.5 and 4.5 °C globally; these temperature changes will be greater at high latitudes. Mid-continental regions will experience lower rainfall. Predictions of species northward range shifts in response to climate change vary from 100 km to over 500 km. Historical evidence of species range movements following the Pleistocene indicate that tree species typically migrated at rates of 10 km to 40 km per century. A simulation model that predicts the migration response of trees through modern fragmented landscapes predicts migration rates much lower than Pleistocene observations. Thus migration response is likely to lag far behind rates of climatic change, potentially threatening narrowly distributed species whose predicted future ranges do not overlap with their current range. Insect pests and microbial pathogens should respond to climatic warming faster than long-lived trees. Predicted increased drought frequency may increase plant stress and thereby increase the frequency of insect outbreaks and disease. Predictions of species responses are complicated by direct effects of increased CO2, such as increased water-use efficiency. However, response to elevated CO2 varies among species. Thus, shifts in composition within plant communities are also likely, but are, as yet, unpredictable.


1992 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 272-272 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip W. Signor

A handful of mass extinctions, scattered through the Phanerozoic, forever changed the course of life on Earth, eliminating large numbers of clades from the evolutionary race and allowing the survivors to diversify following the extinction. These ecological-evolutionary upheavals extirpated whole communities and eliminated otherwise successful clades from the evolutionary race. While the mechanism(s) responsible for most mass extinctions remain to be identified, their impact on the biosphere is self-evident. Thus, recognition of a previously overlooked, severe extinction early in the Phanerozoic provides important new insights and perspectives on the history of lifeIn the course of research on the biogeographic distribution of Early Cambrian metazoan taxa, I compiled a database on the geographic and stratigraphic distribution of metazoan genera. The data are derived from the primary literature on the paleogeographic and stratigraphic distributions and systematics of Early Cambrian fossils. The Russian zonation scheme for the Siberian Platform (incorporating four stages, in ascending order: Tommotian, Atabanian, Botomian, and Toyonian) was employed for biostratigraphic correlations. Correlations of other regions to the Siberian stages were based upon work by F. Debrenne and her colleagues on archaeocyathans and upon M. D. Brasier's correlations from small shelly fossils. While there is no accepted global correlation scheme for Lower Cambrian strata, this approach yields results that are useful at the four-stage level of resolution. The data base currently includes more than 850 genera.Examination of the aggregate data reveals a substantial reduction (>60%) in the global total of genera extant in the Toyonian, in comparison to the Botomian stage. The extinction rate of genera at the end of the Botomian exceeds 80 percent. By comparison, the end-Permian extinction eliminated slightly more than 60 percent of the extant genera.In addition to the general reduction in generic diversity, Brasier (1982) has documented a fall in sea level and reduction in the shelf area. Associated with this regression was a loss of reef-forming archaeocyathan genera. While a small number of archaeocyathan genera persisted into the Toyonian (and a few genera have been reported from Late Cambrian strata in Antarctica), the bulk of archaeocyath diversity was lost in the Botomian. The losses in diversity, extermination of reef-forming organisms, and high turnover in conjunction with a marine regression matches the pattern observed at most other mass extinctions.It is remarkable that this relatively severe extinction has gone mostly unnoticed by paleobiologists. Much of the data is relatively new, a product of intense international study of early metazoan faunas. Most likely, the mass of data produced by Lower Cambrian specialists over the past ten years has yet to reach the treatises and monographs where it can be easily summarized. Also, resolution of patterns within the Early Cambrian has waited on the development of correlations and a satisfactory zonation. Indeed, detailed study of the Botomian extinction will await more accurate correlations.


Genome ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 57 (9) ◽  
pp. 517-521 ◽  
Author(s):  
Umesh C. Lavania ◽  
Surochita Basu ◽  
Jyotsana Singh Kushwaha ◽  
Seshu Lavania

Environmental stress in plants impacts many biological processes, including male gametogenesis, and affects several cytological mechanisms that are strongly interrelated. To understand the likely impact of rising temperature on reproductive fitness in the climate change regime, a study of tapetal mitosis and its accompanying meiosis over seasons was made to elucidate the influence of temperature change on the cytological events occurring during microsporogenesis. For this we used two species of an environmentally sensitive plant system, i.e., genus Cymbopogon Sprengel (Poaceae), namely Cymbopogon nardus (L.) Rendle var. confertiflorus (Steud.) Bor (2n = 20) and Cymbopogon jwaruncusha (Jones) Schult. (2n = 20). Both species flower profusely during extreme summer (48 °C) and mild winter (15 °C) but support low and high seed fertility, respectively, in the two seasons. We have shown that tapetal mitotic patterns over seasons entail differential behavior for tapetal mitosis. During the process of tapetum development there are episodes of endomitosis that form either (i) an endopolyploid genomically imbalanced uninucleate and multinucleate tapetum, and (or) (ii) an acytokinetic multinucleate genomically balanced tapetum, with the progression of meiosis in the accompanying sporogenous tissue. The relative frequency of occurrence of the two types of tapetum mitosis patterns is significantly different in the two seasons, and it is found to be correlated with the temperature conditions. Whereas, the former (genomically imbalanced tapetum) are prevalent during the hot summer, the latter (genomically balanced tapetum) are frequent under optimal conditions. Such a differential behaviour in tapetal mitosis vis-à-vis temperature change is also correspondingly accompanied by substantial disturbances or regularity in meiotic anaphase disjunction. Both species show similar patterns. The study underpins that tapetal mitotic behaviour per se could be a reasonable indicator to elucidate the effect of climate change on reproductive fitness.


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