A pilot study of peripheral blood DNA methylation models as predictors of knee osteoarthritis radiographic progression: data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI)

Knee osteoarthritis (OA) is a leading cause of chronic disability worldwide, but no diagnostic or prognostic biomarkers are available. Increasing evidence supports epigenetic dysregulation as a contributor to OA pathogenesis. In this pilot study, we investigated epigenetic patterns in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) as models to predict future radiographic progression in OA patients enrolled in the longitudinal Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) study. PBMC DNA was analyzed from baseline OAI visits in 58 future radiographic progressors (joint space narrowing at 24 months, sustained at 48 months) compared to 58 non-progressors. DNA methylation was quantified via Illumina microarrays and beta- and M-values were used to generate linear classification models. Data were randomly split into a 60% development and 40% validation subsets, models developed and tested, and cross-validated in a total of 40 cycles. M-value based models outperformed beta-value based models (ROC-AUC 0.81 ± 0.01 vs. 0.73 ± 0.02, mean ± SEM, comparison p = 0.002), with a mean classification accuracy of 73 ± 1% (mean ± SEM) for M- and 69 ± 1% for beta-based models. Adjusting for covariates did not significantly alter model performance. Our findings suggest that PBMC DNA methylation-based models may be useful as biomarkers of OA progression and warrant additional evaluation in larger patient cohorts.