scholarly journals Intubated COVID-19 predictive (ICOP) score for early mortality after intubation in patients with COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mitsuaki Nishikimi ◽  
Rehana Rasul ◽  
Cristina P. Sison ◽  
Daniel Jafari ◽  
Muhammad Shoaib ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Early Mortality ◽  
Predictive Score ◽  
Derivation Cohort ◽  
Risk Of Mortality ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Failure Assessment ◽  
History Of

AbstractPatients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) can have increased risk of mortality shortly after intubation. The aim of this study is to develop a model using predictors of early mortality after intubation from COVID-19. A retrospective study of 1945 intubated patients with COVID-19 admitted to 12 Northwell hospitals in the greater New York City area was performed. Logistic regression model using backward selection was applied. This study evaluated predictors of 14-day mortality after intubation for COVID-19 patients. The predictors of mortality within 14 days after intubation included older age, history of chronic kidney disease, lower mean arterial pressure or increased dose of required vasopressors, higher urea nitrogen level, higher ferritin, higher oxygen index, and abnormal pH levels. We developed and externally validated an intubated COVID-19 predictive score (ICOP). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.75 (95% CI 0.73–0.78) in the derivation cohort and 0.71 (95% CI 0.67–0.75) in the validation cohort; both were significantly greater than corresponding values for sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) or CURB-65 scores. The externally validated predictive score may help clinicians estimate early mortality risk after intubation and provide guidance for deciding the most effective patient therapies.

scholarly journals Evaluation of factors that predict the success rate of trial of labor after the cesarean section

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Mi ◽  
Pengfei Qu ◽  
Na Guo ◽  
Ruimiao Bai ◽  
Jiayi Gao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Cesarean Section ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Success Rate ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Training Set ◽  
History Of ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve

Abstract Background For most women who have had a previous cesarean section, vaginal birth after cesarean section (VBAC) is a reasonable and safe choice, but which will increase the risk of adverse outcomes such as uterine rupture. In order to reduce the risk, we evaluated the factors that may affect VBAC and and established a model for predicting the success rate of trial of the labor after cesarean section (TOLAC). Methods All patients who gave birth at Northwest Women’s and Children’s Hospital from January 2016 to December 2018, had a history of cesarean section and voluntarily chose the TOLAC were recruited. Among them, 80% of the population was randomly assigned to the training set, while the remaining 20% were assigned to the external validation set. In the training set, univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify indicators related to successful TOLAC. A nomogram was constructed based on the results of multiple logistic regression analysis, and the selected variables included in the nomogram were used to predict the probability of successfully obtaining TOLAC. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to judge the predictive ability of the model. Results A total of 778 pregnant women were included in this study. Among them, 595 (76.48%) successfully underwent TOLAC, whereas 183 (23.52%) failed and switched to cesarean section. In multi-factor logistic regression, parity = 1, pre-pregnancy BMI < 24 kg/m2, cervical score ≥ 5, a history of previous vaginal delivery and neonatal birthweight < 3300 g were associated with the success of TOLAC. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the prediction and validation models was 0.815 (95% CI: 0.762–0.854) and 0.730 (95% CI: 0.652–0.808), respectively, indicating that the nomogram prediction model had medium discriminative power. Conclusion The TOLAC was useful to reducing the cesarean section rate. Being primiparous, not overweight or obese, having a cervical score ≥ 5, a history of previous vaginal delivery or neonatal birthweight < 3300 g were protective indicators. In this study, the validated model had an approving predictive ability.

scholarly journals Posterior National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale Improves Prognostic Accuracy in Posterior Circulation Stroke

Stroke ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fana Alemseged ◽  
Alessandro Rocco ◽  
Francesco Arba ◽  
Jaroslava Paulasova Schwabova ◽  
Teddy Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Posterior Circulation ◽  
Derivation Cohort ◽  
Posterior Circulation Stroke ◽  
Prognostic Accuracy ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating

Background and Purpose: The National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) underestimates clinical severity in posterior circulation stroke and patients presenting with low NIHSS may be considered ineligible for reperfusion therapies. This study aimed to develop a modified version of the NIHSS, the Posterior NIHSS (POST-NIHSS), to improve NIHSS prognostic accuracy for posterior circulation stroke patients with mild-moderate symptoms. Methods: Clinical data of consecutive posterior circulation stroke patients with mild-moderate symptoms (NIHSS <10), who were conservatively managed, were retrospectively analyzed from the Basilar Artery Treatment and Management registry. Clinical features were assessed within 24 hours of symptom onset; dysphagia was assessed by a speech therapist within 48 hours of symptom onset. Random forest classification algorithm and constrained optimization were used to develop the POST-NIHSS in the derivation cohort. The POST-NIHSS was then validated in a prospective cohort. Poor outcome was defined as modified Rankin Scale score ≥3 at 3 months. Results: We included 202 patients (mean [SD] age 63 [14] years, median NIHSS 3 [interquartile range, 1–5]) in the derivation cohort and 65 patients (mean [SD] age 63 [16] years, median NIHSS 2 [interquartile range, 1–4]) in the validation cohort. In the derivation cohort, age, NIHSS, abnormal cough, dysphagia and gait/truncal ataxia were ranked as the most important predictors of functional outcome. POST-NIHSS was calculated by adding 5 points for abnormal cough, 4 points for dysphagia, and 3 points for gait/truncal ataxia to the baseline NIHSS. In receiver operating characteristic analysis adjusted for age, POST-NIHSS area under receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.80 (95% CI, 0.73–0.87) versus NIHSS area under receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.73 (95% CI, 0.64–0.83), P =0.03. In the validation cohort, POST-NIHSS area under receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.82 (95% CI, 0.69–0.94) versus NIHSS area under receiver operating characteristic curve 0.73 (95% CI, 0.58–0.87), P =0.04. Conclusions: POST-NIHSS showed higher prognostic accuracy than NIHSS and may be useful to identify posterior circulation stroke patients with NIHSS <10 at higher risk of poor outcome.

THE EMERGENCE OF FRAILTY MAY LEAD TO A STATE OF BURNT OUT TYPE 2 DIABETES

2016 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
A.H. ABDELHAFIZ ◽  
L. KOAY ◽  
A.J. SINCLAIR
Keyword(s):  
Type 2 Diabetes ◽  
Β Cells ◽  
Risk Of Mortality ◽  
Vulnerable Patients ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
History Of ◽  
The One ◽  
And Function ◽  
Glucose Dynamics

Ageing is associated with hyperglycaemic tendency due to the change in body composition leading to accumulation of visceral fat and increased insulin resistance on the one hand and reduced insulin secretion due to decreased number and function of the β-cells of the pancreas on the other. However, with the emergence of frailty there may be a tendency towards normoglycaemia or even hypoglycaemia due to malnutrition, weight loss and reduced physiologic reserve. This shift in glucose metabolism induced by frailty may change the natural history of type 2 diabetes from a progressive to a regressive course. Studies which showed increased risk of mortality with low HbA1c included frail patients in the lower HbA1c categories and healthier patients in the higher HbA1c categories suggesting that frailty is a possible confounding factor. Therefore, hypoglycemia may be a prognostic tool to identify vulnerable patients who may be at increased risk of mortality. The metabolic changes of insulin/glucose dynamics associated with frailty need further research.

scholarly journals Cut-off Values of the Respiratory Muscle Power and Peak Cough Flow in Post-Stroke Dysphagia

Medicina ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 56 (12) ◽  
pp. 635
Author(s):  
Yeon Jae Han ◽  
Jungjae Lee ◽  
Dong Gyun Sohn ◽  
Geun-Young Park ◽  
Youngkook Kim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Univariate Analysis ◽  
Multivariable Analysis ◽  
Post Stroke ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating

Background and objectives: This study aimed to determine the cut-off values of the following three respiratory pressure meters; the voluntary peak cough flow (PCF), maximal expiratory pressure (MEP) and maximal inspiratory pressure (MIP); associated with post-stroke dysphagia and assess which of these parameters show good diagnostic properties associated with post-stroke dysphagia. Materials and Methods: Retrospective analysis of a prospectively maintained database. Records of patients with first-ever diagnosed dysphagia attributable to cerebrovascular disease, who had performed spirometry measurements for the PCF, MIP and MEP. Results: From a total of 237 stroke patients, 163 patients were diagnosed with dysphagia. Those with dysphagia had significantly lower PCF values than those without dysphagia (116.3 ± 75.3 vs. 219.4 ± 91.8 L/min, p < 0.001). In addition, the former group also had lower MIP (30.5 ± 24.7 vs. 41.6 ± 25.7 cmH2O, p = 0.0002) and MEP (41.0 ± 27.9 vs. 62.8 ± 32.3 cmH2O, p < 0.001) values than the latter group. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the PCF cut-off value of 151 L/min (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] 0.81; sensitivity 72%; specificity 78.8%) was associated with post-stroke dysphagia. The optimum MEP and MIP cut-off were 38 cmH2O (AUC 0.70, sensitivity 58%; specificity 77.7%) and 20 cmH2O (AUC 0.65, sensitivity 49%; specificity 84%). PCF showed the highest AUC results. Results from the univariate analysis indicated that PCF values of ≤151 L/min increased risk of dysphagia by 9.51-fold (4.96–18.23). Multivariable analysis showed that after controlling of other clinical factor, the PCFs at this cut-off value still showed increased risk of by 4.19 (2.02–83.69) but this was not observed with the MIPs or MEPs. Conclusions: Our study has provided cut-off values that are associated with increased risk of dysphagia. Among the three parameters, PCF showed increased association with post-stroke dysphagia.

scholarly journals Early postpartum dyslipidemia and its potential predictors during pregnancy in women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ling Pei ◽  
Huangmeng Xiao ◽  
Fenghua Lai ◽  
Zeting Li ◽  
Zhuyu Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Diabetes Mellitus ◽  
Gestational Diabetes ◽  
Gestational Diabetes Mellitus ◽  
Maternal Age ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Lipid Levels ◽  
Early Postpartum ◽  
History Of ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve

Abstract Background: This study aimed to analyze the incidence of early postpartum dyslipidemia and its potential predictors in women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM).Methods: This was a retrospective study. 589 women diagnosed with GDM were enrolled and followed up at 6–12 weeks after delivery. A 75g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) and lipid levels were performed during mid-trimester and the early postpartum period. Participants were divided into the normal lipid group and dyslipidemia group according to postpartum lipid levels. Demographic and metabolic parameters were analyzed. Multiple logistic regression was performed to analyze the potential predictors for early postpartum dyslipidemia. A receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was calculated to determine the cut-off values.Results: A total of 38.5% of the 589 women developed dyslipidemia in early postpartum and 60% of them had normal glucose metabolism. Delivery age, systolic blood pressure (SBP), glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) were independent predictors of early postpartum dyslipidemia in women with a history of GDM. The cut-offs of maternal age, SBP, HbA1c values, and LDL-C levels were 35 years, 123mmHg, 5.1%, and 3.56 mmol/L, respectively. LDL-C achieved a balanced mix of high sensitivity (63.9%) and specificity (69.2%), with the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) (0.696). When LDL-C was combined with age, SBP, and HbA1c, the AUC reached to 0.733.Conclusions: A lipid metabolism evaluation should be recommended in women with a history of GDM after delivery, particularly those with a maternal age > 35 years, SBP > 123 mmHg before labor, HbA1c value > 5.1%, or LDL-C levels > 3.56 mmol/L in the second trimester of pregnancy.

scholarly journals Predictors of impaired pulmonary function in people living with HIV in an urban African setting

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah E. Van Riel ◽  
Kerstin Klipstein-Grobusch ◽  
Roos E. Barth ◽  
Diederick E. Grobbee ◽  
Charles Feldman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lung Function ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Forced Expiratory Volume ◽  
Normal Lung ◽  
People Living With Hiv ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Impaired Lung Function ◽  
History Of

Background: Studies have associated HIV with an increased risk of obstructive lung disease (OLD).Objectives: We aimed to identify the predictive factors for impaired lung function in an urban, African, HIV-positive population.Method: A cross-sectional study was performed in Johannesburg, South Africa, from July 2016 to November 2017. A questionnaire was administered and pre- and post-bronchodilator spirometry conducted. The predictors investigated included age, sex, antiretroviral treatment (ART) duration, body mass index, history of tuberculosis (TB) or pneumonia, occupational exposure, environmental exposure, smoking and symptoms of OLD (cough, wheeze, mucus and dyspnoea). Impaired lung function was defined as a forced expiratory volume in 1 second/forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC) ratio of 0.70, or below the 20th percentile of normal.Results: The 98 ART-naïve participants (mean age = 34.0, standard deviation [s.d.] = 8.2), 85 participants on first-line ART (mean age = 36.9, s.d. = 6.6) and 189 participants on second-line ART (mean age = 43.5, s.d. = 7.9) were predominantly female (65.6%). Of the participants, 64 (17.2%) had impaired lung function and 308 had normal lung function. Linear regression identified age (β = –0.003, P 0.01), male sex (β = –0.016, P = 0.03) and history of TB or pneumonia (β = –0.024, P 0.01) as independent predictors of a lower FEV1/FVC ratio. Following logistic regression, only a history of TB or pneumonia (odds ratio = 2.58, 95% confidence interval = 1.47–4.52) was significantly related to impaired lung function (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.64).Conclusion: Our data show that a history of TB or pneumonia predicts impaired lung function. In order to improve timely access to spirometry, clinicians should be alert to the possibility of impaired lung function in people with a history of TB or pneumonia.

scholarly journals Thrombosis and Risk of Mortality in Newly Diagnosed High-Risk Polycythemia Vera: An Analysis of the Medicare Claims Database in the United States

Blood ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 136 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 9-10
Author(s):  
Naveen Pemmaraju ◽  
Aaron T. Gerds ◽  
Shreekant Parasuraman ◽  
Jingbo Yu ◽  
Anne Shah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Median Time ◽  
Research Funding ◽  
Index Date ◽  
Newly Diagnosed ◽  
Publicly Traded ◽  
Risk Of Mortality ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
History Of

Background Polycythemia vera (PV) is a myeloproliferative neoplasm (MPN) associated with an increased risk of thrombotic events (TEs), a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Patients aged ≥60 years and/or with a history of thrombosis are considered to have high-risk PV. There is limited contemporary, real-world evidence exploring the effect of TEs on mortality in patients with PV. The aim of this analysis was to compare the risk of mortality in patients newly diagnosed with high-risk PV who experienced a TE vs those who did not experience a TE. Study Design and Methods All data from the Medicare Fee-for-Service (FFS) claims database (Parts A/B/D) from January 2010-December 2017 were used to identify patients with a PV diagnosis (all high risk based on cohort being ≥65 years of age) with ≥1 inpatient or ≥2 outpatient claims. The index date was the date of the first qualifying PV claim. Patients with a PV diagnosis or use of cytoreductive therapy within 12 months before the index date (pre-index period) were excluded; ≥12-months continuous medical and pharmacy enrollment pre-index dates was required. The study sample was categorized into TE and non-TE groups based on the occurrence of any of the following events during follow-up: deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, ischemic stroke, acute myocardial infarction, transient ischemic attack, peripheral arterial thrombosis, or superficial thrombophlebitis. TEs were evaluated from the index date to the end of follow-up. Cox regression analyses with time-varying effects were used to assess mortality risk among patients with PV, with post-index TE as a time-dependent variable, stratified by pre-index TE, and adjusting for patient demographic characteristics and comorbid conditions. Results A total of 56,176 Medicare FFS beneficiaries with PV diagnoses met inclusion criteria. The median age was 73 years, 51.9% were men, and 90.7% were white; 10,110 patients (18.0%) had a history of TE before diagnosis (ie, pre-index). In the follow-up period, 20,105 patients (35.8%) had a TE and 36,071 patients (64.2%) did not have a TE. In the comparison between the TE vs non-TE groups, the median (range) age (75.0 [65-104] vs 73.0 [65-106] years, respectively), mean (SD) Charlson comorbidity index score (3.1 [2.6] vs 2.2 [2.3]), and percentage of patients with a history of cardiovascular events (34.1% vs 23.8%), bleeding (13.3% vs 10.4%), or anemia (28.6% vs 23.4%) were higher (Table 1). Among all patients with PV, the median time from diagnosis to first post-index TE was 7.5 months. Among those with pre-index TE (n=10,093), median time from index to first post-index TE was 0.6 months, whereas patients without pre-index TE (n=46,083) had a median time to first post-index TE of 14.2 months. Among all patients with TE during follow-up, the most common TEs were ischemic stroke (47.5%), transient ischemic attack (30.9%), and acute myocardial infarction (30.5%). The risk of mortality was increased for patients who experienced a TE compared with those who did not (hazard ratio [HR; 95% CI], 9.3 [8.4-10.2]; P&lt;0.0001). For patients who experienced a pre-index TE, the risk of mortality was increased for patients who experienced a subsequent TE during follow-up compared with patients who did not (HR [95% CI], 6.7 [5.8-7.8]; P&lt;0.0001). Likewise, for patients who did not experience a pre-index TE, the risk of mortality was increased for patients who experienced a TE during follow-up compared with patients who did not (HR [95% CI], 13.1 [11.4-15.0]; P&lt;0.0001). Conclusions In this real-world study, approximately one-third of patients with newly diagnosed high-risk PV experienced a TE during follow-up and had a 9-fold increased risk of mortality vs those who did not experience a TE. TE risk mitigation remains an important management goal in patients with PV, particularly in those with prior TE. Disclosures Pemmaraju: Samus Therapeutics: Research Funding; Celgene: Honoraria; SagerStrong Foundation: Other: Grant Support; Affymetrix: Other: Grant Support, Research Funding; MustangBio: Honoraria; Blueprint Medicines: Honoraria; LFB Biotechnologies: Honoraria; Plexxikon: Research Funding; Novartis: Honoraria, Research Funding; AbbVie: Honoraria, Research Funding; Stemline Therapeutics: Honoraria, Research Funding; Pacylex Pharmaceuticals: Consultancy; Daiichi Sankyo: Research Funding; Incyte Corporation: Honoraria; Roche Diagnostics: Honoraria; Cellectis: Research Funding; DAVA Oncology: Honoraria. Gerds:Sierra Oncology: Research Funding; Celgene: Consultancy, Research Funding; Gilead Sciences: Research Funding; Imago Biosciences: Research Funding; Pfizer: Research Funding; CTI Biopharma: Consultancy, Research Funding; Roche/Genentech: Research Funding; Apexx Oncology: Consultancy; AstraZeneca/MedImmune: Consultancy; Incyte Corporation: Consultancy, Research Funding. Parasuraman:Incyte Corporation: Current Employment, Current equity holder in publicly-traded company. Yu:Incyte Corporation: Current Employment, Current equity holder in publicly-traded company. Shah:Avalere Health: Current Employment. Xi:Incyte Corporation: Other: Avalere Health is a paid consultant of Incyte Corporation; Avalere Health: Current Employment. Kumar:Avalere Health: Current Employment; Incyte Corporation: Other: Avalere Health is a paid consultant of Incyte Corporation. Scherber:Incyte Corporation: Current Employment, Current equity holder in publicly-traded company. Verstovsek:Gilead: Research Funding; Incyte Corporation: Consultancy, Research Funding; Novartis: Consultancy, Research Funding; CTI Biopharma Corp: Research Funding; Promedior: Research Funding; Roche: Research Funding; AstraZeneca: Research Funding; Blueprint Medicines Corp: Research Funding; Genentech: Research Funding; Sierra Oncology: Consultancy, Research Funding; Protagonist Therapeutics: Research Funding; ItalPharma: Research Funding; PharmaEssentia: Research Funding; NS Pharma: Research Funding; Celgene: Consultancy, Research Funding.

scholarly journals Usefulness of Measuring Changes in SOFA Score for the Prediction of 28-Day Mortality in Patients With Sepsis-Associated Disseminated Intravascular Coagulation

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 107602961882404 ◽  
Author(s):  
Toshiaki Iba ◽  
Makoto Arakawa ◽  
Katsunori Mochizuki ◽  
Osamu Nishida ◽  
Hideo Wada ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disseminated Intravascular Coagulation ◽  
Sofa Score ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Japanese Society ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Acute Medicine ◽  
Intravascular Coagulation ◽  
Failure Assessment ◽  
Sepsis Trial

The primary end point for sepsis trial is 28-day mortality. However, additional methods for determining the efficacy may have benefits. The purpose of this study was to search a useful indicator of anticoagulant therapy in patients with sepsis with disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC). Data from 323 patients with sepsis with coagulopathy treated with antithrombin supplementation were analyzed. The changes in the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (Δ SOFA) score, the overt-DIC (Δ overt-DIC) score, and the Japanese Society for Acute Medicine DIC (Δ JAAM DIC) score from baseline to day 7 were retrospectively analyzed in relation to the 28-day mortality. Significant correlations were found between the 28-day mortality and Δ SOFA, Δ overt-DIC score, and Δ JAAM DIC score. The accuracy of the prediction was higher for Δ SOFA (80.5%) than for Δ overt-DIC (66.7%, P < .001). The areas under the curve for mortality calculated using a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis were 0.812 for Δ SOFA, 0.655 for Δ overt-DIC, and 0.693 for Δ JAAM DIC. The mortality rate was significantly lower among cases with an improved SOFA score compared to those without an improvement. The Δ SOFA had the strongest association with the 28-day mortality in patients with sepsis and DIC.

Abstract T MP104: The Role of Antithrombotics Therapy in Recent Ischaemic Stroke Patients with Atrial Fibrillation: Analysis from VISTA

Stroke ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 45 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Azmil H Abdul-Rahim ◽  
Rachael L Fulton ◽  
Frank Benedikt ◽  
Turgut Tatlisumak ◽  
Maurizio Paciaroni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Ischaemic Stroke ◽  
Recurrent Stroke ◽  
Previous History ◽  
Neurological Impairment ◽  
Antithrombotic Treatment ◽  
Risk Of Mortality ◽  
Natural Progression ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
History Of

Background and Purpose: There is uncertainty on the optimal latency after acute ischaemic stroke at which antithrombotic treatment should commence for atrial fibrillation (AF) patients, in order to prevent recurrent stroke (RS) without provoking symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage (SICH). We sought to describe the risk factors and patterns of RS and SICH in a cohort of patients with AF and recent stroke. Methods: We assessed the association of antihrombotic treatment (i.e. anticoagulants and antiplatelets) with the distribution of the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at day 90, and the occurrence of RS and SICH. We developed statistical models for the prediction of RS and SICH in the first 90 days after stroke, using univariate and multivariate analysis. Results: Data were available for 1,644 patients. Combined antithrombotic therapy with both anticoagulation and antiplatelet (n=782) was associated with more favourable functional outcome across full scale mRS OR=1.785 (95% CI: 1.316, 2.421; P=0.0002), and significantly lower risk of mortality by day 90, SICH by day 90 and RS by day 90: Mortality day 90 OR=0.344 (95% CI: 0.235, 0.502; P<0.0001), SICH day 90 OR=0.18 (95% CI: 0.086, 0.37; P<0.0001) and RS day 90 OR=0.33 (95% CI: 0.21, 0.53; P<0.0001). Patients with ischaemic stroke who had high baseline glucose had a high risk of both RS and SICH events after stroke. Additionally, patients who had increased neurological impairment, previous history of TIA and received no antithrombotic treatment were at increased risk of RS. The relative risk of RS versus SICH appeared constant over time. Conclusions: It seems justified to initiate anticoagulation immediately the patient attains medical and neurological stability, taking into account the potential of haemorrhagic transformation as part of the natural progression in stroke and the increasing risk of recurrent stroke with time if left untreated. Antiplatelet treatment pending introduction of anticoagulation is reasonable.

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