A retrospective HEART risk score comparation of acute non-traumatic chest pain patients in an emergency department in Spain

AbstractNon traumatic chest pain is the second most common cause of attention at the Emergency Departments (ED). The objective is to compare the effectiveness of HEART risk score and the risk of having a Major Adverse Cardiovascular Event (MACE) during the following 6 weeks in ‘Acute Non-traumatic Chest Pain’ (ANTCP) patients of an ED in Lleida (Spain). The ANTCP patient cohort was defined using medical data from January 2015 to January 2016. A retrospective study was performed among 300 ANTCP patients. Diagnostic accuracy to predict MACE, HEART risk score effectiveness and patient risk stratification were analysed on the ANTCP Cohort. HEART risk score was conducted on ANTCP Cohort data and patients were stratified as low-risk (n = 116, 38.7%), moderate-risk (n = 164, 54.7%) and high-risk (n = 20, 6.7%); differently from the assessment performed by 'Current Emergency Department Guidelines’ (CEDG) on the same patients: low risk and discharge (n = 56, 18.7%), medium risk and need of complementary tests (n = 137, 45.7%) and high risk and hospital admission (n = 107, 35.7%).The incidence of MACE was 2.5%, 20.7% and 100% in low, moderate and high-risk, respectively. Discrimination and accuracy indexes were moderate (AUC = 0.73, 95% confidence interval: 0.67–0.80). Clustering moderate-high risk groups by MACE incidence showed an 89.5% of sensitivity. Data obtained from this study suggests that HEART risk score stratified better ‘acute non-traumatic chest pain’ (ANTCP) patients in an Emergency Department (ED) compared with ‘Current Emergency Department Guidelines’ (CEDG) at the Hospital Universitari Arnau de Vilanova (HUAV). HEART score would reduce the number of subsequent consultations, unnecessary admissions and complementary tests.Trial registration: Retrospectively registered.

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Determining whether A Low HEART Score Is Associated with Low Risk in Coronary Angiography Results: Validation of HEART Score Using Coronary Angiography Results

10.22514/sv.2020.16.0084 ◽

2020 ◽

Keyword(s):

Chest Pain ◽

High Risk ◽

Coronary Angiography ◽

Risk Groups ◽

Low Risk ◽

Rational Approach ◽

Intermediate Risk ◽

Heart Score ◽

Grade Ii ◽

Grade Iii

Purpose: The history, electrocardiogram, age, risk factor, and troponin (HEART) score have not yet been adopted in the emergency department (ED) in South Korea. We aimed to investigate whether patients with low HEART scores have a low risk of coronary angiography (CAG) results. Methods: Patients with chest pain with a possible cardiac etiology in the ED were included. Patients were divided into low-risk (0 – 3), intermediate-risk (4 – 6), and high-risk (7 – 9) groups according to the HEART score. We analysed the CAG results of the included patients. CAG results were divided into four grades: Grade I, > 70%; Grade II, > 50%; Grade III, 10% – 50%; and Grade IV, < 10%of stenosis. The occurrence of a major adverse cardiac event (MACE) within 28 days was also investigated. Results: The study included 787 patients, of whom 458, 262, and 67 were included in the low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups, respectively. A total of 118 cases of MACE occurred (average: 0.15 MACE/patient). MACE incidence was lower in the low-risk HEART score group than in the intermediate-risk and high-risk groups (0.4% vs. 22.1% and 86.6%, p < 0.001). The CAG results of the admitted patients with a low-risk HEART score were as follows: Grade I, 6.1%; Grade II, 3.0%; Grade III, 27.3%; and Grade IV, 63.6%. Conclusions: Patients with a low HEART score visiting the ED in Korea had a low risk in CAG results and a low probability of developing MACE. The successful utilization of the HEART score appears to be a rational approach that may avoid unnecessary testing in chest pain patients presenting to the ED.

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Short-term risk stratification using CADILLAC risk score in patients with ST elevation myocardial infarction

European Heart Journal ◽

10.1093/ehjci/ehaa946.1352 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽

Author(s):

T Satou ◽

H Kitahara ◽

K Ishikawa ◽

T Nakayama ◽

Y Fujimoto ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Myocardial Infarction ◽

High Risk ◽

Adverse Events ◽

Risk Score ◽

Risk Group ◽

Risk Groups ◽

Low Risk ◽

Short Term ◽

Recurrent Myocardial Infarction ◽

St Elevation

Abstract Background The recent reperfusion therapy for ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) has made the length of hospital stay shorter without adverse events. CADILLAC risk score is reportedly one of the risk scores predicting the long-term prognosis in STEMI patients. Purpose To invenstigate the usefulness of CADILLAC risk score for predicting short-term outcomes in STEMI patients. Methods Consecutive patients admitted to our university hospital and our medical center with STEMI (excluding shock, arrest case) who underwent primary PCI between January 2012 and April 2018 (n=387) were enrolled in this study. The patients were classified into 3 groups according to the CADILLAC risk score: low risk (n=176), intermediate risk (n=87), and high risk (n=124). Data on adverse events within 30 days after hospitalization, including in-hospital death, sustained ventricular arrhythmia, recurrent myocardial infarction, heart failure requiring intravenous treatment, stroke, or clinical hemorrhage, were collected. Results In the low risk group, adverse events within 30 days were significantly less observed, compared to the intermediate and high risk groups (n=13, 7.4% vs. n=13, 14.9% vs. n=58, 46.8%, p<0.001). In particular, all adverse events occurred within 3 days in the low risk group, although adverse events, such as heart failure (n=4), recurrent myocardial infarction (n=1), stroke (n=1), and gastrointestinal bleeding (n=1), were substantially observed after day 4 of hospitalization in the intermediate and high risk groups. Conclusions In STEMI patients with low CADILLAC risk score, better short-term prognosis was observed compared to the intermediate and high risk groups, and all adverse events occurred within 3 days of hospitalization, suggesting that discharge at day 4 might be safe in this study population. CADILLAC risk score may help stratify patient risk for short-term prognosis and adjust management of STEMI patients. Initial event occurrence timing Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

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A prognostic model based on seven immune-related genes predicts the overall survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BioData Mining ◽

10.1186/s13040-021-00261-y ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 14 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Qian Yan ◽

Wenjiang Zheng ◽

Boqing Wang ◽

Baoqian Ye ◽

Huiyan Luo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Hepatocellular Carcinoma ◽

Overall Survival ◽

High Risk ◽

Risk Score ◽

Immune Cells ◽

Prognostic Model ◽

Risk Groups ◽

Low Risk ◽

Prognostic Performance ◽

Immune Related Genes

Abstract Background Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a disease with a high incidence and a poor prognosis. Growing amounts of evidence have shown that the immune system plays a critical role in the biological processes of HCC such as progression, recurrence, and metastasis, and some have discussed using it as a weapon against a variety of cancers. However, the impact of immune-related genes (IRGs) on the prognosis of HCC remains unclear. Methods Based on The Cancer Gene Atlas (TCGA) and Immunology Database and Analysis Portal (ImmPort) datasets, we integrated the ribonucleic acid (RNA) sequencing profiles of 424 HCC patients with IRGs to calculate immune-related differentially expressed genes (DEGs). Survival analysis was used to establish a prognostic model of survival- and immune-related DEGs. Based on genomic and clinicopathological data, we constructed a nomogram to predict the prognosis of HCC patients. Gene set enrichment analysis further clarified the signalling pathways of the high-risk and low-risk groups constructed based on the IRGs in HCC. Next, we evaluated the correlation between the risk score and the infiltration of immune cells, and finally, we validated the prognostic performance of this model in the GSE14520 dataset. Results A total of 100 immune-related DEGs were significantly associated with the clinical outcomes of patients with HCC. We performed univariate and multivariate least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) regression analyses on these genes to construct a prognostic model of seven IRGs (Fatty Acid Binding Protein 6 (FABP6), Microtubule-Associated Protein Tau (MAPT), Baculoviral IAP Repeat Containing 5 (BIRC5), Plexin-A1 (PLXNA1), Secreted Phosphoprotein 1 (SPP1), Stanniocalcin 2 (STC2) and Chondroitin Sulfate Proteoglycan 5 (CSPG5)), which showed better prognostic performance than the tumour/node/metastasis (TNM) staging system. Moreover, we constructed a regulatory network related to transcription factors (TFs) that further unravelled the regulatory mechanisms of these genes. According to the median value of the risk score, the entire TCGA cohort was divided into high-risk and low-risk groups, and the low-risk group had a better overall survival (OS) rate. To predict the OS rate of HCC, we established a gene- and clinical factor-related nomogram. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve showed that this model had moderate accuracy. The correlation analysis between the risk score and the infiltration of six common types of immune cells showed that the model could reflect the state of the immune microenvironment in HCC tumours. Conclusion Our IRG prognostic model was shown to have value in the monitoring, treatment, and prognostic assessment of HCC patients and could be used as a survival prediction tool in the near future.

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Development and Verification of the Hypoxia- and Immune-Associated Prognostic Signature for Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

Frontiers in Immunology ◽

10.3389/fimmu.2021.728062 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 ◽

Author(s):

Dongjie Chen ◽

Hui Huang ◽

Longjun Zang ◽

Wenzhe Gao ◽

Hongwei Zhu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

High Risk ◽

Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma ◽

Risk Score ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Pearson Correlation ◽

Risk Groups ◽

Low Risk ◽

Ductal Adenocarcinoma ◽

Prognostic Signature ◽

Score Model

We aim to construct a hypoxia- and immune-associated risk score model to predict the prognosis of patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). By unsupervised consensus clustering algorithms, we generate two different hypoxia clusters. Then, we screened out 682 hypoxia-associated and 528 immune-associated PDAC differentially expressed genes (DEGs) of PDAC using Pearson correlation analysis based on the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and Genotype-Tissue Expression project (GTEx) dataset. Seven hypoxia and immune-associated signature genes (S100A16, PPP3CA, SEMA3C, PLAU, IL18, GDF11, and NR0B1) were identified to construct a risk score model using the Univariate Cox regression and the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) Cox regression, which stratified patients into high- and low-risk groups and were further validated in the GEO and ICGC cohort. Patients in the low-risk group showed superior overall survival (OS) to their high-risk counterparts (p < 0.05). Moreover, it was suggested by multivariate Cox regression that our constructed hypoxia-associated and immune-associated prognosis signature might be used as the independent factor for prognosis prediction (p < 0.001). By CIBERSORT and ESTIMATE algorithms, we discovered that patients in high-risk groups had lower immune score, stromal score, and immune checkpoint expression such as PD-L1, and different immunocyte infiltration states compared with those low-risk patients. The mutation spectrum also differs between high- and low-risk groups. To sum up, our hypoxia- and immune-associated prognostic signature can be used as an approach to stratify the risk of PDAC.

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Immune‐related Long Noncoding RNA Signature for Patients with Cervical Cancer

10.21203/rs.3.rs-49217/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Jianfeng Zheng ◽

Jinyi Tong ◽

Benben Cao ◽

Xia Zhang ◽

Zheng Niu

Keyword(s):

Cervical Cancer ◽

High Risk ◽

Risk Score ◽

Immune Cell ◽

Risk Group ◽

Risk Groups ◽

Low Risk ◽

Gene Set Enrichment Analysis ◽

Training Set ◽

Score Model

Abstract Background: Cervical cancer (CC) is a common gynecological malignancy for which prognostic and therapeutic biomarkers are urgently needed. The signature based on immune‐related lncRNAs(IRLs) of CC has never been reported. This study aimed to establish an IRL signature for patients with CC.Methods: The RNA-seq dataset was obtained from the TCGA, GEO, and GTEx database. The immune scores（IS）based on single-sample gene set enrichment analysis (ssGSEA) were calculated to identify the IRLs, which were then analyzed using univariate Cox regression analysis to identify significant prognostic IRLs. A risk score model was established to divide patients into low-risk and high-risk groups based on the median risk score of these IRLs. This was then validated by splitting TCGA dataset(n=304) into a training-set(n=152) and a valid-set(n=152). The fraction of 22 immune cell subpopulations was evaluated in each sample to identify the differences between low-risk and high-risk groups. Additionally, a ceRNA network associated with the IRLs was constructed.Results: A cohort of 326 CC and 21 normal tissue samples with corresponding clinical information was included in this study. Twenty-eight IRLs were collected according to the Pearson’s correlation analysis between immune score and lncRNA expression (P < 0.01). Four IRLs (BZRAP1-AS1, EMX2OS, ZNF667-AS1, and CTC-429P9.1) with the most significant prognostic values (P < 0.05) were identified which demonstrated an ability to stratify patients into low-risk and high-risk groups by developing a risk score model. It was observed that patients in the low‐risk group showed longer overall survival (OS) than those in the high‐risk group in the training-set, valid-set, and total-set. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) for the four IRLs signature in predicting the one-, two-, and three-year survival rates were larger than 0.65. In addition, the low-risk and high-risk groups displayed different immune statuses in GSEA. These IRLs were also significantly correlated with immune cell infiltration. Conclusions: Our results showed that the IRL signature had a prognostic value for CC. Meanwhile, the specific mechanisms of the four-IRLs in the development of CC were ascertained preliminarily.

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An immune-related lncRNA signature as a prognostic immunotherapy target for colon cancer

10.21203/rs.3.rs-35120/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Bin Wu ◽

Yi Yao ◽

Yi Dong ◽

Si Qi Yang ◽

Deng Jing Zhou ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Colon Cancer ◽

High Risk ◽

Risk Score ◽

Enrichment Analysis ◽

Risk Groups ◽

Low Risk ◽

Gene Set Enrichment Analysis ◽

Risk Scores ◽

Gene Set Enrichment ◽

Immunotherapy Target

Abstract Background：We aimed to investigate an immune-related long non-coding RNA (lncRNA) signature that may be exploited as a potential immunotherapy target in colon cancer. Materials and methods: Colon cancer samples from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) containing available clinical information and complete genomic mRNA expression data were used in our study. We then constructed immune-related lncRNA co-expression networks to identify the most promising immune-related lncRNAs. According to the risk score developed from screened immune-related lncRNAs, the high-risk and low-risk groups were separated on the basis of the median risk score, which served as the cutoff value. An overall survival analysis was then performed to confirm that the risk score developed from screened immune-related lncRNAs could predict colon cancer prognosis. The prediction reliability was further evaluated in the independent prognostic analysis and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). A principal component analysis (PCA) and gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) were performed for functional annotation. Results: Information for a total of 514 patients was included in our study. After multiplex analysis, 12 immune-related lncRNAs were confirmed as a signature to evaluate the risk scores for each patient with cancer. Patients in the low-risk group exhibited a longer overall survival (OS) than those in the high-risk group. Additionally, the risk scores were an independent factor, and the Area Under Curve (AUC) of ROC for accuracy prediction was 0.726. Moreover, the low-risk and high-risk groups displayed different immune statuses based on principal components and gene set enrichment analysis.Conclusions: Our study suggested that the signature consisting of 12 immune-related lncRNAs can provide an accessible approach to measuring the prognosis of colon cancer and may serve as a valuable antitumor immunotherapy.

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A practical composite risk score for the development of Haemolytic Uraemic Syndrome from Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli

European Journal of Public Health ◽

10.1093/eurpub/ckz132 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 29 (5) ◽

pp. 861-868 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Douglas Hamilton ◽

John Cullinan

Keyword(s):

Escherichia Coli ◽

High Risk ◽

Risk Score ◽

Shiga Toxin ◽

Haemolytic Uraemic Syndrome ◽

Low Risk ◽

Medium Risk ◽

Composite Risk ◽

Very High ◽

Estimation Of Risk

Abstract Background Haemolytic Uraemic Syndrome (HUS) is a serious complication of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) infection and the key reason why intensive health protection against STEC is required. However, although many potential risk factors have been identified, accurate estimation of risk of HUS from STEC remains challenging. Therefore, we aimed to develop a practical composite score to promptly estimate the risk of developing HUS from STEC. Methods This was a retrospective cohort study where data for all confirmed STEC infections in Ireland during 2013–15 were subjected to statistical analysis with respect to predicting HUS. Multivariable logistic regression was used to develop a composite risk score, segregating risk of HUS into ‘very low risk’ (0–0.4%), ‘low risk’ (0.5–0.9%), ‘medium risk’ (1.0–4.4%), ‘high risk’ (4.5–9.9%) and ‘very high risk’ (10.0% and over). Results There were 1397 STEC notifications with complete information regarding HUS, of whom 5.1% developed HUS. Young age, vomiting, bloody diarrhoea, Shiga toxin 2, infection during April to November, and infection in Eastern and North-Eastern regions of Ireland, were all statistically significant independent predictors of HUS. Demonstration of a risk gradient provided internal validity to the risk score: 0.2% in the cohort with ‘very low risk’ (1/430), 1.1% with ‘low risk’ (2/182), 2.3% with ‘medium risk’ (8/345), 3.1% with ‘high risk’ (3/98) and 22.2% with ‘very high risk’ (43/194) scores, respectively, developed HUS. Conclusion We have developed a composite risk score which may be of practical value, once externally validated, in prompt estimation of risk of HUS from STEC infection.

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P0357VALIDATION OF THE ANCA RENAL RISK SCORE IN A LONDON COHORT: POTENTIAL IMPACT OF TREATMENT ON PREDICTION OUTCOME

Nephrology Dialysis Transplantation ◽

10.1093/ndt/gfaa142.p0357 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 35 (Supplement_3) ◽

Author(s):

PEK GHE TAN ◽

Jennifer O'Brien ◽

Megan Griffith ◽

Marie Condon ◽

Tom Cairns ◽

...

Keyword(s):

High Risk ◽

Risk Score ◽

Risk Group ◽

Risk Groups ◽

Renal Outcome ◽

Combination Regimen ◽

Renal Survival ◽

Medium Risk ◽

Risk Patients ◽

Potential Impact

Abstract Background and Aims A renal risk score was recently developed to predict the risk of progression to end stage kidney disease (ESKD) in patients with ANCA-associated glomerulonephritis (ANCA-GN). The score defines three risk groups, each with distinct renal survival at 36 months: 68% of high-risk patients reaching ESKD, compared to 26% and 0% in the medium- and low-risk groups, respectively. The majority of patients (101/115) used to define the risk score were treated with IV cyclophosphamide and steroids. At our centre, we employ a combined low-dose IV cyclophosphamide, rituximab and oral corticosteroid induction regimen, with or without plasma exchange (PEX) depending on disease severity, for ANCA-GN. A recent cohort study suggested this combination regimen may lead to better renal survival. We thus hypothesized that choice of remission-induction treatment may affect prediction accuracy of the risk tool. We retrospectively test the validity of the ANCA renal risk score in patients with ANCA-GN treated at our centre. Method All patients with newly diagnosed, biopsy-proven ANCA-GN from 2006-19 were identified from local renal histopathology database. Patients with relapsing ANCA-GN, EGPA, other coexisting GN, or missing data on induction therapy or eventual renal outcome were excluded. ANCA-negative pauci-immune GN was included. Baseline demographics, ANCA serology, initial therapy and parameters in the ANCA risk score (including % normal glomeruli, % tubular atrophy and interstitial fibrosis (TAIF), and estimated glomerular filtration rate were collected. All patients were stratified using the risk tool and Kaplan Meier survival analysis was applied to examine the ESKD prediction. Subgroup analysis was then performed for patients who received the combination regimen of cyclophosphamide and rituximab. Results 178 patients with a median follow up of 44 month were included in the analysis. The median age was 62 years and 82 patients (46%) were female. 94(53%) were MPO-ANCA positive, 66(37%) PR3-ANCA positive, 15 (8%) ANCA-negative, and 3 (2%) were double PR3/MPO-ANCA positive. 148 (83%) patients received the combination regimen, and 45 had concurrent PEX. Total of 37 (21%) patients reached ESKD. 29 (78%) of these, developed ESKD within 36 months of initial diagnosis. Using the risk score, 64(36%), 76(43%) and 38(21%) patients were deemed low-, medium- and high-risk, respectively. Very distinct poor renal survival at 36 months was seen in high-risk group (55% reaching ESKD, p<0.01), but was less apparent between low- (95%) and medium-risk (90%)(p=0.052) (Figure1); In the subgroup of patients treated with combination regimen without concurrent PEX, the high-risk subgroup continues to demonstrate poor renal survival at 36 months (60% ESKD), but renal survival between low- and medium-risk group were comparable (0 and 2% respectively, p=0.57) (Figure 2). Conclusion In our cohort, the ANCA Renal Risk Score reliably predicted rapid ESKD progression at 36-month in high-risk patients, but was less accurate for distinguishing patients with low-and medium-risk. The subgroup analysis suggested combined cyclophosphamide and rituximab therapy may have modified long-term renal outcome especially in the medium-risk cohort, influencing the accuracy of the prediction tool. Large multi-centre cohorts are required to further evaluate the potential impact of treatment on predicting outcome.

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LO97: Validation of the HEART score in Canadian emergency department chest pain patients using a high-sensitivity troponin T assay

CJEM ◽

10.1017/cem.2017.159 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 19 (S1) ◽

pp. S61-S62 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

J. Andruchow ◽

A. McRae ◽

T. Abedin ◽

D. Wang ◽

G. Innes ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Emergency Department ◽

Chest Pain ◽

Troponin T ◽

High Sensitivity ◽

Low Risk ◽

Moderate Risk ◽

Heart Score ◽

High Sensitivity Troponin ◽

High Sensitivity Troponin T ◽

Pain Patients

Introduction: The HEART score is a validated tool created to risk stratify emergency department (ED) chest pain patients using 5 simple criteria (History, ECG findings, Age, Risk factors, and Troponin). Several studies have demonstrated the superiority of HEART over other well known risk stratification tools in identifying low risk chest pain patients suitable for early discharge. All but one of these studies used conventional troponin assays, and most were conducted in European populations. This study aims to validate the HEART score using a high-sensitivity troponin T assay in a Canadian population. Methods: This prospective cohort study was conducted at a single urban tertiary centre and regional percutaneous coronary intervention site in Calgary, Alberta. Patients were eligible for enrolment if they presented to the ED with chest pain, were age 25-years or older and required biomarker testing to rule out AMI at the discretion of the attending emergency physician. Patients were excluded if they had clear acute ischemic ECG changes, new arrhythmia or renal failure requiring hemodialysis. Clinical data were recorded by the emergency physician at the time of enrolment and outcomes were obtained from administrative data. High-sensitivity troponin-T (Roche Elecsys hs-cTnT) results were obtained in all patients at presentation. The primary outcome was AMI within 30-days of ED visit, the secondary outcome was 30-day major adverse cardiac events (MACE). Results: A total of 984 ED patients with complete HEART scores were enrolled from August 2014 to September 2016. The 30-day incidence of AMI and MACE in the overall population was 3.3% and 20.6%, respectively. HEART scores were predictive of 30-day AMI incidence: low risk (0-3): 0.77% (95%CI 0.0-1.5%), moderate risk (4-6): 4.3% (95%CI 2.3-6.2%) and high risk (7-10): 12.2% (95%CI 5.5-19.0%). HEART scores also predicted 30-day MACE: low risk (0-3): 5.0% (95%CI 3.1-6.9%), moderate risk (4-6): 31.8% (95%CI 27.2-36.4%) and high-risk (7-10): 61.4% (95%CI 51.2-71.5%). More than half of patients, 522 (53.0%) could be identified as low risk based on the HEART score using a single troponin result. Conclusion: Using a single high-sensitivity troponin result collected at ED presentation, the HEART score can rapidly and effectively identify more than half of ED chest pain patients as low risk for 30-day AMI, but is less sensitive for 30-day MACE.

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A Risk Score to Predict CMV Viremia within the First 100 Days after Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplantation Based on Pre-Transplant Parameters

Blood ◽

10.1182/blood.v124.21.3877.3877 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 124 (21) ◽

pp. 3877-3877

Author(s):

Feras Alfraih ◽

John Kuruvilla ◽

Naheed Alam ◽

Anna Lambie ◽

Vikas Gupta ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Stem Cell ◽

High Risk ◽

Risk Score ◽

Risk Group ◽

Risk Groups ◽

Low Risk ◽

Cmv Infection ◽

Allogeneic Hsct ◽

Very High

Abstract Introduction: Cytomegalovirus (CMV) is a major infectious complication following allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). Risk of CMV infection varies between patients and individualized strategies for monitoring and therapy for CMV are needed. In this study, we attempted to establish a clinical score based on patient and transplant characteristics in order to predict the probability for early CMV viremia (CMV-V) within the first 100 days after HSCT. Methods: A total of 548 patients were evaluated after receiving HSCT between 2005 and 2012 at Princess Margaret Cancer Centre. CMV sero-negative recipients with CMV sero-negative donors (R-D-) were excluded. CMV-V was diagnosed in peripheral blood samples obtained on two occasions either by PCR (>200 IU/ml) or antigenemia testing (>2 positive cells/100000). A total of 378 patients were included into the study. Uni- and multivariable analyses were performed to identify risk factors for CMV-V. A weighted score was assigned to each factor based on the odds ratios determined by the multivariable analysis. A total score was calculated for each patient and used for assignment into one of 4 risk categories, the low risk (score 0-1), the intermediate (score 2-3), the high (score 4-5) and the very high (score 6-8). Median age for all patients was 51 years (range 17-71) and 173 (46%) were female. Matched related donors were used for two hundred fifteen patients (57%). Two hundred forty-three patients (64%) were transplanted for myeloid and 108 (29%) for lymphoid malignancies. One hundred thirteen patients (30%) were CMV sero-positive with a negative donor (R+D-) while 191 (51%) were recipient and donor CMV sero-positivity (R+D+). Graft versus host disease (GVHD) prophylaxis included CSA/MMF (n=200, 52%), and CSA/MTX (n=178, 48%). Myeloablative conditioning regimens were administered to 220 patients (58%), 158 patients (42%) were treated with a reduced intensity regimen. Three hundred-thirty seven patients (89%) received peripheral blood stem cells as a stem cell source. In vivo T cell depletion (TCD) with alemtuzumab was used in 138 (37%). Results: CMV-V occurred in 246 (64%) patients by day 100 post HSCT. The impact of patient and HSCT characteristics on the risk of CMV-V was assessed by multivariable analysis. The significant factors were CMV sero-status R+D- and R+D+, TCD, GVHD prophylaxis with MMF administration of myeloablative preparative regimens (Table 1). Table 1. Multivariate analysis for risk factors of CMV infection following allogeneic HSCT Table 1. Multivariate analysis for risk factors of CMV infection following allogeneic HSCT CMV-V rates on the 4 new risk categories amounted to 93% in the very high-risk, 78% in high-risk, 41% in intermediate-risk and 11% in low-risk group (Fig 1). The risk score was also predictive for the occurrence of multiple CMV-V reactivations with rates of 71%, 45%, 19% and 4% for the very high, high, intermediate and low-risk groups, respectively. The overall survival (OS) rate at 2 years was 33%(n=56) in the very high-risk group compared to 50% in other-risk groups (n=147) (P=0.01) (Fig 2). Non-relapse mortality (NRM) was 53% in the very high-risk versus 33% in other-risk groups (P<0.001). However, there was no difference on cumulative incidence of relapse between the groups (P=0.3). The cumulative incidence of grades 1-4 acute GVHD, grades 2-4, grades 3-4 at day 120 and overall chronic GVHD at 2 years was 68%, 47%, 25% and 39% in very high-risk group versus 65%, 52%, 21% and 52% in other-risk groups, suggesting slightly lower incidence of chronic GVHD in very high-risk vs other-risk groups. Conclusion: We present a new clinical scoring system to stratify the risk of early CMV viremia after allogeneic HSCT based on patients and HSCT characteristics. Identifying the risk for each patient would facilitate decision making with respect to strategies including CMV prophylaxis, pre-emptive treatment or inclusion into clinical trials, as well directing the CMV monitoring policy post-transplant. In addition, the risk score was associated with higher risk of overall mortality and NRM in the very high-risk versus other-risk groups. Figure 1 Figure 1. Figure 2 Figure 2. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

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