scholarly journals The prediction and analysis of COVID-19 epidemic trend by combining LSTM and Markov method

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruifang Ma ◽  
Xinqi Zheng ◽  
Peipei Wang ◽  
Haiyan Liu ◽  
Chunxiao Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Markov Model ◽  
Prediction Error ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
Average Prediction Error ◽  
The Us ◽  
Huge Impact ◽  
Long Term Prediction ◽  
Markov Method

AbstractCorona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread rapidly to countries all around the world from the end of 2019, which caused a great impact on global health and has had a huge impact on many countries. Since there is still no effective treatment, it is essential to making effective predictions for relevant departments to make responses and arrangements in advance. Under the limited data, the prediction error of LSTM model will increase over time, and its prone to big bias for medium- and long-term prediction. To overcome this problem, our study proposed a LSTM-Markov model, which uses Markov model to reduce the prediction error of LSTM model. Based on confirmed case data in the US, Britain, Brazil and Russia, we calculated the training errors of LSTM and constructed the probability transfer matrix of the Markov model by the errors. And finally, the prediction results were obtained by combining the output data of LSTM model with the prediction errors of Markov Model. The results show that: compared with the prediction results of the classical LSTM model, the average prediction error of LSTM-Markov is reduced by more than 75%, and the RMSE is reduced by more than 60%, the mean $${R}^{2}$$ R 2 of LSTM-Markov is over 0.96. All those indicators demonstrate that the prediction accuracy of proposed LSTM-Markov model is higher than that of the LSTM model to reach more accurate prediction of COVID-19.

scholarly journals Predictive Processing and Body Representation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Gadsby ◽  
Jakob Hohwy
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Error ◽  
General Scheme ◽  
Body Representation ◽  
The Body ◽  
Predictive Processing ◽  
Domain Specific ◽  
Term Prediction ◽  
Long Term Prediction

We introduce the predictive processing account of body representation, according to which body representation emerges via a domain-general scheme of (long-term) prediction error minimisation. We contrast this account against one where body representation is underpinned by domain-specific systems, whose exclusive function is to track the body. We illustrate how the predictive processing account offers considerable advantages in explaining various empirical findings, and we draw out some implications for body representation research.

Optimal Parameter Estimation for Long-Term Prediction in the Presence of Model Mismatch

2012 ◽  
Vol 134 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan Sangjun Lee ◽  
Gregery T. Buzzard ◽  
Peter H. Meckl
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Error ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Optimal Parameter ◽  
Model Structure ◽  
Model Mismatch ◽  
Term Prediction ◽  
Optimal Parameter Estimation ◽  
Long Term Prediction ◽  
Significant Model

For nonlinear multi-input multi-output (MIMO) systems such as multilink robotic manipulators, finding a correct, physically derived model structure is almost impossible, so that significant model mismatch is nearly inevitable. Moreover, in the presence of model mismatch, the use of least-squares minimization of the one-step-ahead prediction error (residual error) to estimate unknown parameters in a given model structure often leads to model predictions that are extremely inaccurate beyond a short time interval. In this paper, we develop a method for optimal parameter estimation for accurate long-term prediction models in the presence of significant model mismatch in practice. For many practical cases, where a correct model and the correct number of degrees of freedom for a given model structure are unknown, we combine the use of long-term prediction error with frequency-based regularization to produce more accurate long-term prediction models for actual MIMO nonlinear systems.

Assessing prediction errors of generalized tree biomass and volume equations for the boreal forest region of west-central Canada

2008 ◽  
Vol 38 (4) ◽  
pp. 878-889 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bradley S. Case ◽  
Ronald J. Hall
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Error ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
Tree Biomass ◽  
Average Prediction Error ◽  
Prediction Bias ◽  
Fit Statistics ◽  
Local Site ◽  
West Central ◽  
Central Canada

Aboveground tree biomass and volume are required inputs to models that estimate carbon budgets and ecosystem productivity. Generalized equations are often used to estimate biomass and volume when local equations are unavailable. This study determined whether there was a concomitant increase in prediction error from increasing levels of equation generalization. Local site, generalized regional, and generalized national allometric equations were compared for 10 species distributed across 119 sites in a region defined by west-central Canada. This study employed regression fit statistics and two prediction error metrics, the average prediction error (APE) from the prediction error sum of squares (PRESS) statistic and mean prediction bias. The APE was 9, 12, and 25 kg of biomass per tree for local site, generalized regional, and national equations, respectively. The mean prediction bias for biomass and volume were statistically similar between local level and generalized regional equations across all species. Predictions from generalized national equations were statistically similar for 5 of 10 species when compared with those from local site and generalized regional equations. While local site equations were most accurate for a given site, results indicate that generalized regional equations will produce reasonable estimates of biomass and volume at sites in this region of Canada.

Moving past the vaccine/autism controversy - to examine potential vaccine neurological harms

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Peter R. Breggin
Keyword(s):  
Neurological Disorders ◽  
Developmental Disorder ◽  
Physical Symptoms ◽  
Psychosocial Disorders ◽  
The Us ◽  
Potential Vaccine ◽  
Research And Education ◽  
The Brain ◽  
New Vaccines

BACKGROUND: The vaccine/autism controversy has caused vast scientific and public confusion, and it has set back research and education into genuine vaccine-induced neurological disorders. The great strawman of autism has been so emphasized by the vaccine industry that it, and it alone, often appears in authoritative discussions of adverse effects of the MMR and other vaccines. By dismissing the chimerical vaccine/autism controversy, vaccine defenders often dismiss all genuinely neurological aftereffects of the MMR (measles, mumps, and rubella) and other vaccines, including well-documented events, such as relatively rare cases of encephalopathy and encephalitis. OBJECTIVE: This report explains that autism is not a physical or neurological disorder. It is not caused by injury or disease of the brain. It is a developmental disorder that has no physical origins and no physical symptoms. It is extremely unlikely that vaccines are causing autism; but it is extremely likely that they are causing more neurological damage than currently appreciated, some of it resulting in psychosocial disabilities that can be confused with autism and other psychosocial disorders. This confusion between a developmental, psychosocial disorder and a physical neurological disease has played into the hands of interest groups who want to deny that vaccines have any neurological and associated neuropsychiatric effects. METHODS: A review of the scientific literature, textbooks, and related media commentary is integrated with basic clinical knowledge. RESULTS: This report shows how scientific sources have used the vaccine/autism controversy to avoid dealing with genuine neurological risks associated with vaccines and summarizes evidence that vaccines, including the MMR, can cause serious neurological disorders. Manufacturers have been allowed by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to gain vaccine approval without placebo-controlled clinical trials. CONCLUSIONS: The misleading vaccine autism controversy must be set aside in favor of examining actual neurological harms associated with vaccines, including building on existing research that has been ignored. Manufacturers of vaccines must be required to conduct placebo-controlled clinical studies for existing vaccines and for government approval of new vaccines. Many probable or confirmed neurological adverse events occur within a few days or weeks after immunization and could be detected if the trials were sufficiently large. Contrary to current opinion, large, long-term placebo-controlled trials of existing and new vaccines would be relatively easy and safe to conduct.

Sanctions of the USA and the Policy of Bank of Russia:double Blow to the National Economy

2014 ◽  
pp. 13-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Glazyev
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Economic Sanctions ◽  
Capital Flight ◽  
Practical Advice ◽  
The Us ◽  
Monetary Authorities ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Simultaneous Adoption ◽  
The Eu

This article examines fundamental questions of monetary policy in the context of challenges to the national security of Russia in connection with the imposition of economic sanctions by the US and the EU. It is proved that the policy of the Russian monetary authorities, particularly the Central Bank, artificially limiting the money supply in the domestic market and pandering to the export of capital, compounds the effects of economic sanctions and plunges the economy into depression. The article presents practical advice on the transition from external to domestic sources of long-term credit with the simultaneous adoption of measures to prevent capital flight.

Endurance of Transnationalism in Bolivia’s Valle Alto

2006 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard C. Jones ◽  
Leonardo De la Torre
Keyword(s):  
Random Sample ◽  
Work Experience ◽  
Household Income ◽  
Return Migration ◽  
Ethnographic Interviews ◽  
The Us ◽  
Foreign Work ◽  
Intentions To Return ◽  
Economic Ties

The increasing difficulty of return migration and the demands for assimilation into host societies suggest a long-term cutting of ties to origin areas—likely accentuated in the Bolivian case by the recent shift in destinations from Argentina to the US and Spain. Making use of a stratified random sample of 417 families as well as ethnographic interviews in the provinces of Punata, Esteban Arze, and Jordán in the Valle Alto region the authors investigate these issues. Results suggest that for families with greater than ten years cumulated foreign work experience, there are significantly more absentees and lower levels of remittances as a percentage of household income. Although cultural ties remain strong after ten years, intentions to return to Bolivia decline markedly. The question of whether the dimunition of economic ties results in long-term village decline in the Valle Alto remains an unanswered.   

Study of Natural Minerals of U-Ryrochlore-Type Structure as Analogues of Plutonium Ceramic Waste-form

2002 ◽  
Vol 713 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roman V. Bogdanov ◽  
Yuri F. Batrakov ◽  
Elena V. Puchkova ◽  
Andrey S. Sergeev ◽  
Boris E. Burakov
Keyword(s):  
Chemical Shifts ◽  
Pyrochlore Structure ◽  
Type Structure ◽  
Waste Form ◽  
X Ray ◽  
Ceramic Waste ◽  
Natural Minerals ◽  
The Us ◽  
Pyrochlore Type

ABSTRACTAt present, crystalline ceramic based on titanate pyrochlore, (Ca,Gd,Hf,Pu,U)2Ti2O7, is considered as the US candidate waste form for the immobilization of weapons grade plutonium. Naturally occuring U-bearing minerals with pyrochlore-type structure: hatchettolite, betafite, and ellsworthite, were studied in orders to understand long-term radiation damage effects in Pu ceramic waste forms. Chemical shifts (δ) of U(Lδ1)– and U(Lβ1) – X-ray emission lines were measured by X-ray spectrometry. Calculations were performed on the basis of a two-dimensional δLá1- and δLδ1- correlation diagram. It was shown that 100% of uranium in hatchettolite and, probably, 95-100% of uranium in betafite are in the form of (UO2)2+. formal calculation shows that in ellsworthite only 20% of uranium is in the form of U4+ and 80% of the rest is in the forms of U5+ and U6+. The conversion of the initial U4+ ion originally occurring in the pyrochlore structure of natural minerals to (UO2)2+ due to metamict decay causes a significant increase in uranium mobility.

Comparative Management of Human Resources between USA and Japan

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-100
Author(s):  
Evelyne Ingrid Mitu ◽  
Mile Vasic
Keyword(s):  
Human Resources ◽  
Labor Relations ◽  
Management Styles ◽  
Cultural Management ◽  
Japanese Management ◽  
Global Competitiveness ◽  
Comparative Management ◽  
The Us ◽  
Huge Impact ◽  
National Economies

Abstract Despite the differences between Japanese and styles, both will have a huge impact on their national economies. In terms of cultural management styles will continue to present significant differences. Although nothing is certain, both Americans and Japanese must continue to adapt their management styles to maintain global competitiveness. In general, human resources, labor relations within organizations are mainly features that differentiate the Japanese management system of other countries, especially the US.

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