The impact of the ON-S1 standard on railway risk levels in Australia

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.L. Aas ◽  
M. Baysari ◽  
C. Caponecchia ◽  
T. Skramstad
Keyword(s):  
Risk Levels ◽  
The Impact

Applying the risk principle to optimize accuracy and equity in correctional risk assessment: Results From a Simulation

2021 ◽  
pp. 0306624X2098652
Author(s):  
Grant Duwe
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Principle ◽  
Changes In Risk ◽  
The Impact

As the use of risk assessments for correctional populations has grown, so has concern that these instruments exacerbate existing racial and ethnic disparities. While much of the attention arising from this concern has focused on how algorithms are designed, relatively little consideration has been given to how risk assessments are used. To this end, the present study tests whether application of the risk principle would help preserve predictive accuracy while, at the same time, mitigate disparities. Using a sample of 9,529 inmates released from Minnesota prisons who had been assessed multiple times during their confinement on a fully-automated risk assessment, this study relies on both actual and simulated data to examine the impact of program assignment decisions on changes in risk level from intake to release. The findings showed that while the risk principle was used in practice to some extent, the simulated results showed that greater adherence to the risk principle would increase reductions in risk levels and minimize the disparities observed at intake. The simulated data further revealed the most favorable outcomes would be achieved by not only applying the risk principle, but also by expanding program capacity for the higher-risk inmates in order to adequately reduce their risk.

A Critical Analysis of the Specific Pharmacist Interventions and Risk Assessments During the 12-Month TRANSAFE Rx Randomized Controlled Trial

2021 ◽  
pp. 106002802110447
Author(s):  
Haley M. Gonzales ◽  
James N. Fleming ◽  
Mulugeta Gebregziabher ◽  
Maria Aurora Posadas Salas ◽  
John W. McGillicuddy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Medication Reconciliation ◽  
Controlled Trial ◽  
Therapy Monitoring ◽  
Pharmacist Intervention ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Medication Therapy ◽  
Risk Patients ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Medication Changes

Background Medication safety issues have detrimental implications on long-term outcomes in the high-risk kidney transplant (KTX) population. Medication errors, adverse drug events, and medication nonadherence are important and modifiable mechanisms of graft loss. Objective To describe the frequency and types of interventions made during a pharmacist-led, mobile health–based intervention in KTX recipients and the impact on patient risk levels. Methods This was a secondary analysis of data collected during a 12-month, parallel-arm, 1:1 randomized clinical controlled trial including 136 KTX recipients. Participants were randomized to receive either usual care or supplemental, pharmacist-driven medication therapy monitoring and management using a smartphone-enabled app integrated with telemonitoring of blood pressure and glucose (when applicable) and risk-based televisits. The primary outcome was pharmacist intervention type. Secondary outcomes included frequency of interventions and changes in risk levels. Results A total of 68 patients were randomized to the intervention and included in this analysis. The mean age at baseline was 50.2 years; 51.5% of participants were male, and 58.8% were black. Primary pharmacist intervention types were medication reconciliation and patient education, followed by medication changes. Medication reconciliation remained high throughout the study period, whereas education and medication changes trended downward. From baseline to month 12, we observed an approximately 15% decrease in high-risk patients and a corresponding 15% increase in medium- or low-risk patients. Conclusion and Relevance A pharmacist-led mHealth intervention may enhance opportunities for pharmacological and nonpharmacological interventions and mitigate risk levels in KTX recipients.

scholarly journals The Impact of the Storm Prediction Center's Convective Outlooks and Watches on Emergency Management Operational Planning

2021 ◽  
pp. 36-46
Author(s):  
Heather A. Cross ◽  
Dennis Cavanaugh ◽  
Christopher C. Buonanno ◽  
Amy Hyman
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Management ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Emergency Operations ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Severe Thunderstorms ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Storm Prediction ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Impact

For many emergency managers (EMs) and National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters, Convective Outlooks issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) influence the preparation for near-term severe weather events. However, research into how and when EMs utilize that information, and how it influences their emergency operations plan, is limited. Therefore, to better understand how SPC Convective Outlooks are used for severe weather planning, a survey was conducted of NWS core partners in the emergency management sector. The results show EMs prefer to wait until an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms is issued to prepare for severe weather. In addition, the Day 2 Convective Outlook serves as the threshold for higher, value-based decision making. The survey was also used to analyze how the issuance of different risk levels in SPC Convective Outlooks impact emergency management preparedness compared to preparations conducted when a Convective Watch is issued.

scholarly journals The impact of information about different absolute benefits and harms on intention to participate in colorectal cancer screening: A think-aloud study and online randomised experiment

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. e0246991
Author(s):  
Juliet A. Usher-Smith ◽  
Katie M. Mills ◽  
Christiane Riedinger ◽  
Catherine L. Saunders ◽  
Lise M. Helsingen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
Screening Tests ◽  
Baseline Risk ◽  
Prior History ◽  
Think Aloud ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Crc Screening ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Impact

Background There is considerable heterogeneity in individuals’ risk of disease and thus the absolute benefits and harms of population-wide screening programmes. Using colorectal cancer (CRC) screening as an exemplar, we explored how people make decisions about screening when presented with information about absolute benefits and harms, and how those preferences vary with baseline risk, between screening tests and between individuals. Method We conducted two linked studies with members of the public: a think-aloud study exploring decision making in-depth and an online randomised experiment quantifying preferences. In both, participants completed a web-based survey including information about three screening tests (colonoscopy, sigmoidoscopy, and faecal immunochemical testing) and then up to nine scenarios comparing screening to no screening for three levels of baseline risk (1%, 3% and 5% over 15 years) and the three screening tests. Participants reported, after each scenario, whether they would opt for screening (yes/no). Results Of the 20 participants in the think-aloud study 13 did not consider absolute benefits or harms when making decisions concerning CRC screening. In the online experiment (n = 978), 60% expressed intention to attend at 1% risk of CRC, 70% at 3% and 77% at 5%, with no differences between screening tests. At an individual level, 535 (54.7%) would attend at all three risk levels and 178 (18.2%) at none. The 27% whose intention varied by baseline risk were more likely to be younger, without a family history of CRC, and without a prior history of screening. Conclusions Most people in our population were not influenced by the range of absolute benefits and harms associated with CRC screening presented. For an appreciable minority, however, magnitude of benefit was important.

scholarly journals PASIRENKAMO RIZIKOS LYGIO PASTOVUMAS ĮVAIRIOSE SPRENDIMŲ SITUACIJOSE

Psichologija ◽  
2003 ◽  
Vol 28 ◽  
pp. 7-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Auksė Endriulaitienė ◽  
Vaclovas Martišius
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risky Decision ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Vilnius University ◽  
Social Scientific ◽  
The Impact

Kadangi gyvename didžiulio nerimo ir netikrumo laikais, pastaruoju metu socialinių mokslų atstovų domėjimasis rizika smarkiai padidėjo. Pagrindinė teorija, analizuojanti rizikingus sprendimus, yra D. Kahnemano ir A. Tversky?o sukurta prospektų teorija, kuri akcentuoja situacijos veiksnius, nulemiančius sprendimo rizikos lygį. Prieštaringi tyrimų rezultatai paskatino psichologus iškelti mintį, kad žmonės turi tam tikrą asmenybės savybę - polinkį rizikuoti. Šio tyrimo tikslas - nustatyti, ar yra įvairiose sprendimų situacijose pasirenkamo rizikos lygio, kuris gali būti asmenybės bruožo - polinkio rizikuoti rodiklis, ryšys. Tyrime dalyvavo 262 Vilniaus ir Vytauto Didžiojo universitetų studentai; jie pildė Pasirinkimo dilemų klausimyną bei Sprendimų priėmimo stiliaus skalę. Tyrimo rezultatai atskleidė, kad rizikos lygis, pasirenkamas įvairiose sprendimų situacijose, yra santykinai pastovus dydis ir gali būti susijęs su asmenybės bruožu - polinkiu rizikuoti. Taigi gauti tyrimo duomenys leidžia diskutuoti su tais psichologais, kurie ypač akcentuoja situacijos svarbą priimant rizikingus sprendimus ir nuvertina asmenybės bruožų įtaką žmogaus pasirinkimams. THE STABILITY OF RISK LEVEL ACROSS VARIOUS DECISION SITUATIONSAuksė Endriulaitienė, Vaclovas Martišius SummaryFew would dispute that we are living at a time of high anxiety and uncertainty. That's why in recent years, social scientific interest in risk has increased enormously. The main theory that explains human decision processes in the face of risk is Prospect theory of D. Kahneman and A. Tversky. It emphasizes the impact of situation upon human risk taking. The contradictory results from the investigations in the perspective of human trait theory give the challenge to the prospect theory and raise the assumption that people have the personality trait - propensity to risk that could explain at least the part of human risky decision making and risk taking behavior. The present investigation aims to find if the decision risk level is stable across various decision situations and could be the index of human propensity to risk. The subjects were 262 students from Vytautas Magnus University and Vilnius University in Lithuania; they completed Choice Dilemma Questionnaire (Kogan, Wallach, 1964) and The Scale of General Decision Making Style (Scott, Bruce, 1995). The results showed that correlation coefficients among risk levels in various decision situations were high and significant. So risk level was stable across the situations and could be related to the personality disposition - propensity to risk. The implications of results and limitations of the study were discussed.

Risk Assessment Overrides: Shuffling the Risk Deck Without Any Improvements in Prediction

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (12) ◽  
pp. 1609-1629
Author(s):  
Thomas H. Cohen ◽  
Christopher T. Lowenkamp ◽  
Kristin Bechtel ◽  
Anthony W. Flores
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Risk Classification ◽  
Federal System ◽  
Sex Offenses ◽  
Supervision System ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Reclassification ◽  
The Impact

In the federal supervision system, officers have discretion to depart from the risk designations provided by the Post Conviction Risk Assessment (PCRA) instrument. This component of the risk classification process is referred to as the supervision override. While the rationale for allowing overrides is that actuarial scores cannot always capture an individual’s unique characteristics, there is relatively limited literature on the actual effects of overrides on an actuarial tool’s predictive efficacies. This study examines overrides in the federal system by assessing the extent to which risk levels are adjusted through overrides as well as the impact of overrides on the PCRA’s risk prediction effectiveness. Findings show that nearly all overrides lead to an upward risk reclassification, that overrides tend to place substantial numbers of persons under federal supervision (especially those convicted of sex offenses) into the highest supervision categories, and that overrides result in a deterioration of the PCRA’s risk prediction capacities.

Improving barrier and operational risk analysis (BORA) using criticality importance analysis case study: oil and gas separator

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 267-282
Author(s):  
Mouloud Bourareche ◽  
Rachid Nait Said ◽  
Fatiha Zidani ◽  
Nouara Ouazraoui
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Operational Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Safety Barrier ◽  
Barrier Performance ◽  
Importance Analysis ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to show the impact of operational and environmental conditions (risk influencing factors) on the component criticality of safety barriers, safety barrier performance and accidents frequency and therefore on risk levels. Design/methodology/approach The methodology focuses on the integration of criticality importance analysis in barrier and operational risk analysis method, abbreviated as BORA-CIA. First, the impact of risk influencing factors (RIFs) associated with basic events on safety barrier performance and accident frequency is studied, and then, a risk evaluation is performed. Finally, how unacceptable risks can be mitigated regarding risk criteria is analyzed. Findings In the proposed approach (BORA-CIA), the authors show how specific installation conditions influence risk levels and analyze the prioritization of components to improve safety barrier performance in oil and gas process. Practical implications The proposed methodology seems to be a powerful tool in risk decision. Ordering components of safety barriers taking into account RIFs allow maintenance strategies to be undertaken according to the real environment far from average data. Also, maintenance costs would be estimated adequately. Originality/value In this paper, an improved BORA method is developed by incorporating CIA. More precisely, the variability of criticality importance factors of components is used to analyze the prioritization of maintenance actions in an operational environment.

Predicting the population impact of increased HIV testing and treatment in Australia

Sexual Health ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 146 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Jansson ◽  
Cliff C. Kerr ◽  
David P. Wilson
Keyword(s):  
Antiretroviral Therapy ◽  
Hiv Infections ◽  
Transmission Risk ◽  
Risk Compensation ◽  
Treatment As Prevention ◽  
People Living With Hiv ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Sex With Men ◽  
Living With Hiv ◽  
The Impact

Introduction The treatment as prevention strategy has gained popularity as a way to reduce the incidence of HIV by suppressing viral load such that transmission risk is decreased. The effectiveness of the strategy also requires early diagnosis. Methods: Informed by data on the influence of diagnosis and treatment on reducing transmission risk, a model simulated the impact of increasing testing and treatment rates on the expected incidence of HIV in Australia under varying assumptions of treatment efficacy and risk compensation. The model utilises Australia’s National HIV Registry data, and simulates disease progression, testing, treatment, transmission and mortality. Results: Decreasing the average time between infection and diagnosis by 30% is expected to reduce population incidence by 12% (~126 cases per year, 95% confidence interval (CI): 82–198). Treatment of all people living with HIV with CD4 counts <500 cells μL–1 is expected to reduce new infections by 30.9% (95% CI: 15.9–37.6%) at 96% efficacy if no risk compensation occurs. The number of infections could increase up to 12.9% (95% CI: 20.1–7.4%) at 26% efficacy if a return to prediagnosis risk levels occur. Conclusion: Treatment as prevention has the potential to prevent HIV infections but its effectiveness depends on the efficacy outside trial settings among men who have sex with men and the level of risk compensation. If antiretroviral therapy has high efficacy, risk compensation will not greatly change the number of infections. If the efficacy of antiretroviral therapy is low, risk compensation could lead to increased infections.

Professional Discretion and the Predictive Validity of a Juvenile Risk Assessment Instrument

2016 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 103-118 ◽  
Author(s):  
James T. McCafferty
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Adjusted Risk ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Assessment Instrument ◽  
Actuarial Risk ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

The ability for professionals to override the results of an actuarial risk assessment tool is an essential part of effective correctional risk classification; however, little is known about how this important function affects the predictive validity of these tools. Using data from a statewide sample of juveniles from Ohio, this study examined the impact of professional adjustments on the predictive validity of a juvenile risk assessment instrument. This study found that the original and adjusted risk levels were significant predictors of recidivism, but the original risk levels were stronger predictors of recidivism than the adjusted risk levels that accounted for overrides.

scholarly journals INVESTIGATION OF THE GLOBAL PROBLEMS IMPACT ON OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND HEALTH IN UKRAINE

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 3-7
Author(s):  
O. Kruzhilko ◽  
M. Lysyuk
Keyword(s):  
Conceptual Analysis ◽  
Occupational Safety ◽  
Occupational Injuries ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Protection Measures ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Assessment Development ◽  
Safety And Health ◽  
Global Problems ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this work is to study the impact of global problems on labour protection in Ukraine to determine ways to improve labour protection measures that are traditionally used. To identify the impact of global problems on labour protection in Ukraine, a brief conceptual analysis of approaches to the labour protection management was carried out, both in Ukraine and internationally. The evaluative criterion for the hazards impacts significance was the injuries and morbidity indicators values – the frequency and severity and the risk levels of the negative consequences onset from these effects, dependent on them. It is established that the global problems in the field of OSH management in Ukraine and other developing countries are similar. To apply the program-oriented principle of planning the priority of measures to eliminate or reduce hazards, it is proposed to use their typification. The proposed hazard typification is based on legislative and regulatory documents in force in Ukraine, but can be adapted for other countries. The practical value of the study lies in the fact that the main hazards determining occupational injuries and occupational  morbidity in Ukraine are identified and systematized. The main ways of improving the labour protection state are highlighted, among which there is a development of risk factors assessment scale for their quantitative assessment; development and implementation of modern information systems for timely accounting and analysis of identified hazards. The originality of the approach to OSH management is the analysis of the probl ems of injuries and morbidity at work as a general (global) problem requiring a unified approach to its solution, but with mandatory consideration of the subjective characteristics of its origin.

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