scholarly journals Simulation modeling in assessing the agricultural enterprise state in an emergency

2021 ◽  
Vol 285 ◽  
pp. 01010
Author(s):  
Kirill Zhichkin ◽  
Vladimir Nosov ◽  
Lyudmila Zhichkina ◽  
Natalia Fomenko
Keyword(s):  
Initial Data ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Simulation Modeling ◽  
Statistical Evaluation ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Financial Resources ◽  
Financial Flows ◽  
Software Complex ◽  
Agricultural Enterprise

The article proposes a methodology for assessing the sufficiency of financial resources in an emergency. The purpose of the study is to develop a methodology based on the method of simulation modeling to assess the sufficiency of resources and the sustainability of an agricultural enterprise in the event of an emergency. This set of methods for assessing the availability of enterprise financial resources for overcoming emergencies was implemented using algorithms for simulation of enterprise financial flows and their assessment in the program for investment calculations Project Expert 7.19. The program allows you to build simulation models of an enterprise, regardless of their industry and specificity. With the help of this software complex, it is possible not only to build a simulation model of an enterprise, but also to carry out its statistical evaluation. Together with the proposed method of detailing the initial data of annual financial and economic documents, this set of methods is a powerful tool for building and evaluating simulation models of agricultural and other enterprises, taking into account fluctuations in cash flow values during the year. Thus, the accuracy of the estimates obtained is significantly increased in comparison with methods based on the analysis of relative indicators or coefficients.

scholarly journals Simulation Modeling of Aerial Work Completed by Helicopters in the Construction Industry Focused on Weather Conditions

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 13671
Author(s):  
Andrej Bisták ◽  
Zdenka Hulínová ◽  
Michal Neštiak ◽  
Barbara Chamulová
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
National Parks ◽  
Simulation Modeling ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Natural Conditions ◽  
Dominant Feature ◽  
Numerical Weather Forecast ◽  
The Given

The aim of this research was to develop a simulation model of the works carried out by helicopters, which are used in the construction of buildings under harsh natural conditions. This work identified that even technologies that we do not normally encounter, such as aerial work using helicopters, can have a major impact on ensuring the requirement of sustainability within the overall environmental and economic context. In the environment of protected landscape areas and national parks, in particular, where all sites are sensitive to human intervention, the use of helicopters in construction functions is an irreplaceable aid. Preparations for aerial work are very demanding and require the use of more sophisticated tools to achieve optimal results consistent within the paradigm of long-term sustainability. Simulation modeling is one such option, thanks to the considerable advancements made in information technology. A simulation model of aerial work was compiled within the presented work, and its functionality was verified using specific examples that confirmed in full the suitability of using simulations in the preparation of aerial work within construction. A detailed analysis of helicopter operations showed that an algorithm that accounts for future weather conditions at the construction site, and specifically focused on the conditions at the given altitude above the ground, should be a dominant feature of simulation models. It is exceptionally important that such data be known within the preparations for aerial work as accurately as possible, and, as such, this article describes the process of obtaining meteorological information for simulation models in detail using a numerical weather forecast and the reliability of data obtained in this manner. Based on the results obtained during this research, the proposed simulation model can be recommended as a suitable tool in the preparation of buildings. Its use is especially important if construction takes place under difficult natural conditions, where work cannot be carried out without the use of helicopters. We perceive the simulation model as a potential tool for digitizing construction preparations in the age of Industry 4.0.

QUANTIFYING UNCERTAINTY IN SIMULATION MODELING

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jace Thibault ◽  
Simaan AbouRizk
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Simulation Modeling ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Light Rail ◽  
Rail Transit ◽  
Engineering Systems ◽  
Quantifying Uncertainty ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation Model

Uncertainty can be defined as a state of either incomplete or otherwise bounded knowledge. Simulation models, and the engineering systems that they represent, often contain various types of uncertainty. Different approaches and theories can be applied to model these various types of uncertainty with a range of degrees in difficulty and accuracy. The objective of this paper is to explain the various types of uncertainty found in simulation models and to examine where uncertainty can be better represented or potentially reduced. To achieve this objective, a Monte Carlo Simulation model called the As-Planned Model is developed to estimate both cost and schedule using a risk-based approach for a simplified, Light Rail Transit construction project. After the project is complete, the As-Planned model is then compared to the project’s actual results. The resulting conclusions about various types of uncertainty are derived through both output comparison as well as uncertainty analysis.

scholarly journals Rapid-cycle systems modeling to support evidence-informed decision-making during system-wide implementation

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Christopher Sheldrick ◽  
Gracelyn Cruden ◽  
Ana J. Schaefer ◽  
Thomas I. Mackie
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Simulation Modeling ◽  
Implementation Strategy ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Illustrative Case ◽  
Systems Modeling ◽  
Cycle Systems ◽  
Analytic Strategy ◽  
Group Interviews

Abstract Background To “model and simulate change” is an accepted strategy to support implementation at scale. Much like a power analysis can inform decisions about study design, simulation models offer an analytic strategy to synthesize evidence that informs decisions regarding implementation of evidence-based interventions. However, simulation modeling is under-utilized in implementation science. To realize the potential of simulation modeling as an implementation strategy, additional methods are required to assist stakeholders to use models to examine underlying assumptions, consider alternative strategies, and anticipate downstream consequences of implementation. To this end, we propose Rapid-cycle Systems Modeling (RCSM)—a form of group modeling designed to promote engagement with evidence to support implementation. To demonstrate its utility, we provide an illustrative case study with mid-level administrators developing system-wide interventions that aim to identify and treat trauma among children entering foster care. Methods RCSM is an iterative method that includes three steps per cycle: (1) identify and prioritize stakeholder questions, (2) develop or refine a simulation model, and (3) engage in dialogue regarding model relevance, insights, and utility for implementation. For the case study, 31 key informants were engaged in step 1, a prior simulation model was adapted for step 2, and six member-checking group interviews (n = 16) were conducted for step 3. Results Step 1 engaged qualitative methods to identify and prioritize stakeholder questions, specifically identifying a set of inter-related decisions to promote implementing trauma-informed screening. In step 2, the research team created a presentation to communicate key findings from the simulation model that addressed decisions about programmatic reach, optimal screening thresholds to balance demand for treatment with supply, capacity to start-up and sustain screening, and availability of downstream capacity to provide treatment for those with indicated need. In step 3, member-checking group interviews with stakeholders documented the relevance of the model results to implementation decisions, insight regarding opportunities to improve system performance, and potential to inform conversations regarding anticipated implications of implementation choices. Conclusions By embedding simulation modeling in a process of stakeholder engagement, RCSM offers guidance to realize the potential of modeling not only as an analytic strategy, but also as an implementation strategy.

scholarly journals Simulation Modeling Features of Various Machine-Building Enterprise Types

2021 ◽  
Vol 346 ◽  
pp. 03079
Author(s):  
Vitaly Dolgov ◽  
Petr Nikishechkin ◽  
Sergey Ivashin ◽  
Nikita Dolgov
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Simulation Modeling ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Machine Building ◽  
Building Simulation ◽  
Combined Approach ◽  
Building Enterprise ◽  
Tool Set ◽  
Building Enterprises

The paper considers the simulation modeling features of various types machine-building enterprises. A tool set for building simulation models of various production types is proposed. A method of a combined approach for simulation model implementation of mixed production types is proposed and described.

THE USE OF WEB APPLICATIONS FOR THE SELECTION OF CROP GROWING TECHNOLOGIES

2018 ◽  
Vol 48 (3) ◽  
pp. 84-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. A. Lapchenko ◽  
S. P. Isakova ◽  
T. N. Bobrova ◽  
L. A. Kolpakova
Keyword(s):  
Web Application ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Web Applications ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Technical Institute ◽  
Software Complex ◽  
Agricultural Enterprise ◽  
Weather Situation ◽  
The Web ◽  
Selection Of

It is shown that the application of the Internet technologies is relevant in the selection of crop production technologies and the formation of a rational composition of the machine-and-tractor fl eet taking into account the conditions and production resources of a particular agricultural enterprise. The work gives a short description of the web applications, namely “ExactFarming”, “Agrivi” and “AgCommand” that provide a possibility to select technologies and technical means of soil treatment, and their functions. “ExactFarming” allows to collect and store information about temperature, precipitation and weather forecast in certain areas, keep records of information about crops and make technological maps using expert templates. “Agrivi” allows to store and provide access to weather information in the fi elds with certain crops. It has algorithms to detect and make warnings about risks related to diseases and pests, as well as provides economic calculations of crop profi tability and crop planning. “AgCommand” allows to track the position of machinery and equipment in the fi elds and provides data on the weather situation in order to plan the use of agricultural machinery in the fi elds. The web applications presented hereabove do not show relation between the technologies applied and agro-climatic features of the farm location zone. They do not take into account the phytosanitary conditions in the previous years, or the relief and contour of the fi elds while drawing up technological maps or selecting the machine-and-tractor fl eet. Siberian Physical-Technical Institute of Agrarian Problems of Siberian Federal Scientifi c Center of AgroBioTechnologies of the Russian Academy of Sciences developed a software complex PIKAT for supporting machine agrotechnologies for production of spring wheat grain at an agricultural enterprise, on the basis of which there is a plan to develop a web application that will consider all the main factors limiting the yield of cultivated crops.

SIMULATION OF A SEA CARGO PORT AS A QUEUING SYSTEM IN ANYLOGIC

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (26) ◽  
pp. 59-66
Author(s):  
A. G. Morozkov ◽  
◽  
M. R. Yazvenko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Key Words ◽  
Simulation Modeling ◽  
Queue Length ◽  
System Simulation ◽  
Queuing System ◽  
System Model ◽  
System Capacity ◽  
Mathematical Solution ◽  
Structure Simulation

The article presents simplified queuing system model of freight marine port. The article discusses the basic elements of queuing system, its mathematical solution and structure. Simulation model was created using AnyLogic to analyze an effect of system capacity on queue length. The results were analyzed and the solution for queue optimization was proposed. Key words: queuing system, simulation modeling, AnyLogic, marine port, servers, queue.

Process simulation modeling of phytophagans' influence on the yield of seed fruit crops

2019 ◽  
pp. 138-143
Author(s):  
V. A. Shishkin ◽  
E. P. Rybalkin ◽  
E. B. Balykina
Keyword(s):  
Process Simulation ◽  
Simulation Modeling ◽  
Software Package ◽  
Development Process ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Vegetation Period ◽  
Fruit Crops ◽  
Generational Change ◽  
Apple Trees ◽  
Nonlinear Characteristics

Simulation modeling of phytophagans’ influence on the yield of seed fruit crops, in particular apple trees, was carried out. By means of simulation models the importance of phytophagans’ influence at different stages of the vegetation period and the period of fruit ripening was revealed. The software package Matlab was used to build simulation models. As a result, simulation models with nonlinear characteristics were obtained, which maximally reflected the studied processes. The developed models imitate the process of phytophagans’ development. Generation change of pests and all stages of their development are simulated. Their respective numbers are recorded at each stage for all generations. The development process at each stage is modeled by separate subsystems of the simulation model. To simulate the development of one generation of pests, these subsystems are connected by external links. In addition, part of the relationships provides a simulation of generational change. There are a number of input parameters that allow to configure the simulation of the process of changing generations, taking into account the peculiarities of the development of various phytophagans.

scholarly journals Guidelines to Calibrate a Multi-Residential Building Simulation Model Addressing Overheating Evaluation and Residents’ Influence

Buildings ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 242
Author(s):  
Christoph Schünemann ◽  
David Schiela ◽  
Regine Ortlepp
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Residential Building ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Building Simulation ◽  
Night Time ◽  
Building Performance Simulation ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
3D Simulation Model ◽  
Building Physics

Can building performance simulation reproduce measured summertime indoor conditions of a multi-residential building in good conformity? This question is answered by calibrating simulated to monitored room temperatures of several rooms of a multi-residential building for an entire summer in two process steps. First, we did a calibration for several days without the residents being present to validate the building physics of the 3D simulation model. Second, the simulations were calibrated for the entire summer period, including the residents’ impact on evolving room temperature and overheating. As a result, a high degree of conformity between simulation and measurement could be achieved for all monitored rooms. The credibility of our results was secured by a detailed sensitivity analysis under varying meteorological conditions, shading situations, and window ventilation or room use in the simulation model. For top floor dwellings, a high overheating intensity was evoked by a combination of insufficient use of night-time window ventilation and non-heat-adapted residential behavior in combination with high solar gains and low heat storage capacities. Finally, the overall findings were merged into a process guideline to describe how a step-by-step calibration of residential building simulation models can be done. This guideline is intended to be a starting point for future discussions about the validity of the simplified boundary conditions which are often used in present-day standard overheating assessment.

Settings, Experimentation and Evaluation of the Simulation Models

2013 ◽  
Vol 309 ◽  
pp. 366-371 ◽  
Author(s):  
František Manlig ◽  
Radek Havlik ◽  
Alena Gottwaldova
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
New Technology ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Manufacturing Processes ◽  
Customer Requirements ◽  
Evaluation Functions ◽  
Operational Management ◽  
Minimum Number ◽  
User Friendly ◽  
Setting Parameters

This paper deals with research in computer simulation of manufacturing processes. The paper summarizes the procedures associated with developing the model, experimenting with and evaluating the model results. The key area is of experimentation with the simulation model and evaluation using indicators or multi-criteria functions. With regards to the experiment the crucial variables are the simulation model. The key ideas are to set the number of variables, depending on what a given simulation will be. For example, when introducing new technology into production, modify the type of warehouse, saving workers, thus economizing. The simulation models for the operational management uses simplified models, if possible, a minimum number of variables to obtain the result in shortest possible time. These models are more user friendly and the course will be conducted mostly in the background. An example of a criteria function is the number of parts produced or production time. Multi-criteria function has given us the opportunity to make better quality decisions. It is based on the composition of several parameters, including their weight to one end point. The type of evaluation functions, whether it is an indicator or criteria function is selected and based on customer requirements. In most cases it is recommended to use the multi-dimensional function. It gives us a more comprehensive view of the results from the model and facilitates decision-making. The result of this paper is a display of setting parameters for the experimentation on a sample model. Furthermore, the comparisons of results with a multi-criteria objective function and one-criterion indicator.

scholarly journals A two asset cash flow simulation model

1973 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard C. Grinold ◽  
Robert M. Oliver
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Flow Simulation
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