TARDIS: A COMPUTER MODEL TO PREDICT FUTURE GAS SUPPLY

1989 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 41
Author(s):  
I.W. Northcott ◽  
R.C.M. McDonough
Keyword(s):  
Production Scheduling ◽  
South Australia ◽  
Field Size ◽  
Processing Plant ◽  
Mandatory Requirement ◽  
Liquid Products ◽  
On Line ◽  
Exploration Drilling ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
Gas Supply

Because much of South Australia's electricity is gas- generated the future supply of gas from the Cooper Basin is the central issue in the state's energy planning. Available proven reserves of gas are only sufficient to meet the state's demand until the early 1990s.The TARDIS computer program has therefore been written to enable production scheduling of proved and probable gas reserves and, by using historically derived discovery- rate algorithms, to calculate the exploration- drilling effort necessary to meet future gas supply requirements.The mandatory requirement was that the program should complete a simulation within several minutes. This necessitated the decomposition of complex engineering procedures to a simple level without unacceptable loss of accuracy.TARDIS simulates a network of discovered and undiscovered fields which may be allocated to four zones. The fields supply a defined gas market via a processing plant. Appraisal drilling in zones one and three converts estimates of possible gas- in- place into the proved and probable category after allowance for risk. Exploration drilling in zones two and four predicts the discovery of additional reserves using an algorithm, calibrated by historical data, based on the observation that field size decreases as cumulative drilling effort increases.Fields are scheduled in development priority and sufficient fields are brought on line to satisfy a defined gas market. The required number of on- line fields is determined by the cumulative field deliverability and the peak day gas demand. As each field comes on line development wells are drilled until the field is fully developed.A processing plant is simulated to produce sales gas which is within the required specification for chemical composition. The quantity of each of the ancillary gaseous and liquid products is also computed.Data entry and graphical display of results is processed with a spreadsheet and the program runs on a personal computer.TARDIS enables an assessment of whether the current and forecast drilling effort is likely to discover sufficient reserves to satisfy the market. It has proved an invaluable tool in investigating future gas- supply options for South Australia.

A reserves driven view of the eastern Australian gas supply and demand balance through the 2020's

2017 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 526
Author(s):  
Will Pulsford
Keyword(s):  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
South Australia ◽  
Market Outcomes ◽  
Natural Gas Markets ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
Gas Fields ◽  
Key Participants ◽  
Gas Supply

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) issued a Gas Statement of Opportunities in March 2016, which reports that gas supply to the domestic and liquefied natural gas markets in eastern Australia will be largely satisfied by proved and probable reserves until 2026 and by the addition of contingent resources until 2030. However, in parallel, there are widely reported concerns by energy consumers of insufficient gas supplies to meet demand by the early 2020s and a lack of new gas supplies to replace existing expiring contracts. Gas shortages have already contributed to black outs and load shedding events in South Australia. This paper reviews the eastern Australian gas supply position at a basin level. The AEMO basin level supply forecasts are reviewed and adjusted to generate forward profiles, which are consistent with reported reserves levels, production histories and depletion behaviour of typical gas fields. The revised supply forecast is compared with the AEMO’s demand profiles, and the likely commercial behaviour of key participants in the market is considered to build a picture of the domestic gas supply-demand balance through the 2020s. This analysis provides a transparent link from market outcomes back to the underlying reserves classifications to guide interpretation of supply-demand forecasts, and highlights the critical role of key suppliers in the eastern Australian gas market in the coming decade.

scholarly journals Bullying: Perspectives on Research and Interventions

2004 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Raymond T. Chodzinski ◽  
Debra Pepler ◽  
Ken Rigby
Keyword(s):  
Teaching And Learning ◽  
South Australia ◽  
International Literature ◽  
Interview Process ◽  
On Line ◽  
Learning Journal ◽  
The University ◽  
Do So ◽  
Bullying In Schools

While reviewing various articles submitted for this issue I thought that there are experts on bullying who are probably not familiar with the Teaching and Learning journal but might be willing to contribute their viewpoint if they were invited to do so. With that premise in mind I contacted Dr. Debra Pepler of the La Marsh Institute, York University and Dr. Ken Rigby of the University of South Australia. Both are highly respected contributors to the international literature about bullying in schools and communities. Both readily agreed to be part of an on-line interview process.

Meeting demand in a new era of east coast gas supply

2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 686
Author(s):  
Will Pulsford
Keyword(s):  
East Coast ◽  
New Era ◽  
Demand Growth ◽  
Historical View ◽  
Operational Life ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
The Government ◽  
Gas Fields ◽  
Project Life ◽  
Gas Supply

Historically LNG projects have been established to monetise large gas finds in remote areas with little existing gas demand. The development of gas supply to the LNG project generally stimulated demand growth in the domestic gas market. As the supplying fields depleted, the LNG projects faced competition with domestic producers for declining gas supplies, but this was late in the project life when LNG plant capital had already been recovered. Recently, LNG export projects have been established within existing mature gas markets, most notably in Australia and North America. These plants now face competition with domestic gas consumers for access to feed gas from the beginning of their operational life when strong revenue has the greatest impact on the return earned on capital invested, with the greatest stress felt in Australia. This paper considers the underlying causes of domestic price rises experienced in Australia following the start-up of LNG export supplied from gas fields linked to the domestic market and the response by both plant developers/operators and the government. This historical view is used to inform forecasts of how the east coast gas market will react to the interplay between domestic and LNG plant demand, declining Bass Strait production, maturing CSG operations, LNG imports and completion of the Northern Gas Pipeline. In particular the ability of gas supply and pipeline capacity to meet the strongly seasonal domestic demand in Victoria and to a lesser extent NSW will be examined, together with the linkage to counter-cyclical seasonal demand for LNG from the Queensland LNG export plants in the key north Asian markets.

Long-Length Fiber Optic Near-Infrared (NIR) Spectroscopy Probes for On-Line Quality Control of Processed Land Animal Proteins

2018 ◽  
Vol 72 (8) ◽  
pp. 1170-1182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Garrido-Varo ◽  
Ana Sánchez-Bonilla ◽  
Francisco Maroto-Molina ◽  
Cecilia Riccioli ◽  
Dolores Pérez-Marín
Keyword(s):  
Near Infrared ◽  
Fiber Optic ◽  
Nir Spectroscopy ◽  
Conveyor Belt ◽  
Animal Origin ◽  
Processing Plant ◽  
Fiber Optic Cable ◽  
Operating Modes ◽  
On Line ◽  
Dynamic Operating

This research was conducted using a spectral database comprising 346 samples of processed animal proteins (PAPs) with a range of compositions, analyzed using a Fourier transform near-infrared spectroscopy multichannel instrument (Matrix-F, Bruker Optics) coupled to a 100 m fiber optic cable. Using both its static and dynamic operating modes (on a conveyor belt), simulating the movement of the product in the plant, the predictive capabilities of both modes of analysis were assessed and compared, for the purposes of predicting moisture, protein, and ashes. The results show that both exhibit highly similar degrees of precision and accuracy for predicting these parameters. This research provides a foundation of scientific-technical knowledge, hitherto unknown, regarding the “on-line” incorporation of an instrument (equipped with a 100 m fiber optic cable) into a processing plant of by-products of animal origin.

On-Line Production Scheduling and Process Control System in Integrated Steelworks

1972 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 172-180
Author(s):  
Makoto Oshima ◽  
Nobutsune Hirai
Keyword(s):  
Control System ◽  
Process Control ◽  
Production Scheduling ◽  
Process Control System ◽  
Line Production ◽  
On Line

scholarly journals A Strategic Model Of European Gas Supply

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vitaly Kalashnikov ◽  
Nataliya Kalashnykova
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Perfect Competition ◽  
Strategic Behaviour ◽  
Second Stage ◽  
Strategic Model ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
Gas Supply

Structural changes in the European natural gas market such as liberalization, increasing domestic demand, and increasing import dependency have triggered new attempts to model these markets accurately. In this paper, we propose an exhaustive model of the European natural gas supply including the possibility of strategic behaviour of the agents along the value-added chain. We structure it as a two-stage-game with natural gas exports to Europe (first stage) and wholesale trade within Europe (second stage). The case of non-cooperative Cournot competition at both stages proves to be the most realistic scenario. The results of the perfect competition and cartel scenario are also presented. Our results suggest that the main suppliers of natural gas to Europe (Russia, Algeria, the Netherlands, Norway) remain dominant, but that they are complemented by overseas supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG). The model also enables us to identify transport infrastructure bottlenecks where transport capacity constraints are binding.

Evolution of the east coast gas market

2018 ◽  
Vol 58 (2) ◽  
pp. 513
Author(s):  
Philip Byrne
Keyword(s):  
East Coast ◽  
Regulatory Frameworks ◽  
The Us ◽  
Major Transition ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
Gas Fields ◽  
Eastern Seaboard ◽  
Gas Supply ◽  
Australian Industry

This extended abstract reviews how the east coast gas market is managing the major transition from being a ring-fenced domestic market to being part of an interconnected global trading market, and what still needs to be done to rebalance after half a decade of disruption. The east coast gas market has a great future ahead of it, but only if Australia acts quickly to open up access to new gas supply sources as existing gas fields mature and decline. The presence of a global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply market on the east coast now provides an incentive for gas producers to invest in new provinces and new plays at a scale the domestic gas market could not have supported on its own. This can only be good for competition in the east coast gas market over the medium to long term, and potentially open up enormous supplies for the growth of Australian industry, akin to the US shale gas revolution. To make the most of the resources and infrastructure we now have on the eastern seaboard, there is a role for governments to play in ensuring access to resources and providing stable, coordinated, robust energy policy and regulatory frameworks that attract investment in further growth in the gas sector, the benefits of which will flow on to Australian industry more generally.

ECONOMICS OF GAS FIELD DEVELOPMENTS IN THE COOPER BASIN AFTER 1999

1997 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 600
Author(s):  
R.C.M. McDonough
Keyword(s):  
Operating Cost ◽  
South Australia ◽  
Competitive Market ◽  
Field Size ◽  
Gas Field ◽  
Field Development ◽  
The Public ◽  
Cooper Basin

In February 1999 all Cooper Basin exploration acreage in South Australia, which has been under licence since 1954, will be relinquished and therefore become available to new explorers. To assist new explorers in evaluating exploration opportunities, Mines and Energy South Australia (MESA) has developed feasibility level costs for gas field developments which are independent of existing infrastructure owned by the Cooper Basin Joint Venturers. Alternatively, new producers may be able to negotiate access to existing facilities. MESA has developed estimated tolls based on pricing principles which imitate a competitive market. Tolls in this instance should lie between the operating cost of the facility as a minimum and the deprival value cost as a maximum.The study shows that if access to existing facilities is negotiated on a deprival value cost, fields with as little as 5 BCF (141 Mm3) recoverable raw gas are economic. However, if field development is totally independent of existing facilities, the minimum economic field size exceeds 35 BCF (987 Mm3) recoverable raw gas (assuming flaring of LPG is not permitted).MESA conducted this study based on data available in the public and commercial arenas. This demonstrates that it is possible for any company to develop their own data for development and negotiation purposes.

On-Line Component Estimation and Analyser Calibration for a Complex Industrial Processing Plant using Kalman Filtering

1986 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ola Norderhaug ◽  
Jens G. Balchen ◽  
Tor Onshus ◽  
Thomas B. Reistad
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filtering ◽  
Processing Plant ◽  
Industrial Processing ◽  
On Line ◽  
Component Estimation
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document