The current and future projected distribution of Solanum hoplopetalum (Solanaceae): an indigenous weed of the south-western Australian grain belt

2012 ◽  
Vol 60 (2) ◽  
pp. 128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pippa J. Michael ◽  
Paul B. Yeoh ◽  
John K. Scott
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Current Distribution ◽  
South Australia ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Management Options ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Major Factors ◽  
Lower South ◽  
Significant Match ◽  
Western Australian

The factors determining the distribution of the Western Australian endemic Solanum hoplopetalum Bitter & Summerh. (Solanaceae) were assessed because it was identified as a potential weed risk to Australian cropping regions, including under climate change scenarios. Incubation at constant temperatures determined daily plant growth rates and plants required 1380 degree-days above a threshold of 12.4°C to complete growth to flowering. From this and published information on the plant’s biology, we developed a mechanistic niche model using CLIMEX. The model projection for current climates produced a highly significant match to known distribution records. Spatially, the lower south-west and areas eastwards to South Australia, western New South Wales and southern parts of the Northern Territory were climatically suitable for growth of S. hoplopetalum. However, by 2070 the area under risk decreases, with the projected distribution under climate change contracting southwards. We hypothesise that climatic extremes and edaphic factors, possibly high soil pH, may be major factors determining the current distribution of S. hoplopetalum. Containment on the southern edge of the current distribution, interstate quarantine and local eradication in new areas of invasion are recommended as management options to combat the potential for this native weed to spread.

scholarly journals The potential current distribution of the coypu (Myocastor coypus) in Europe and climate change induced shifts in the near future

NeoBiota ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 58 ◽  
pp. 129-160
Author(s):  
Anna Schertler ◽  
Wolfgang Rabitsch ◽  
Dietmar Moser ◽  
Johannes Wessely ◽  
Franz Essl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Current Distribution ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Grid Cells ◽  
Myocastor Coypus ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Management Recommendations

The coypu (Myocastor coypus) is a semi-aquatic rodent native to South America which has become invasive in Europe and other parts of the world. Although recently listed as species of European Union concern in the EU Invasive Alien Species Regulation, an analysis of the current European occurrence and of its potential current and future distribution was missing yet. We collected 24,232 coypu records (corresponding to 25,534 grid cells at 5 × 5 km) between 1980 and 2018 from a range of sources and 28 European countries and analysed them spatiotemporally, categorising them into persistence levels. Using logistic regression, we constructed consensus predictions across all persistence levels to depict the potential current distribution of the coypu in Europe and its change under four different climate scenarios for 2041–2060. From all presence grid cells, 45.5% showed at least early signs of establishment (records temporally covering a minimum of one generation length, i.e. 5 years), whereas 9.8% were considered as containing established populations (i.e. three generation lengths of continuous coverage). The mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10), mean diurnal temperature range (bio2) and the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6) were the most important of the analysed predictors. In total, 42.9% of the study area are classified as suitable under current climatic conditions, of which 72.6% are to current knowledge yet unoccupied; therefore, we show that the coypu has, by far, not yet reached all potentially suitable regions in Europe. Those cover most of temperate Europe (Atlantic, Continental and Pannonian biogeographic region), as well as the coastal regions of the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. A comparison of the suitable and occupied areas showed that none of the affected countries has reached saturation by now. Under climate change scenarios, suitable areas will slightly shift towards Northern regions, while a general decrease in suitability is predicted for Southern and Central Europe (overall decrease of suitable areas 2–8% depending on the scenario). Nevertheless, most regions that are currently suitable for coypus are likely to be so in the future. We highlight the need to further investigate upper temperature limits in order to properly interpret future climatic suitability for the coypu in Southern Europe. Based on our results, we identify regions that are most at risk for future invasions and provide management recommendations. We hope that this study will help to improve the allocation of efforts for future coypu research and contribute to harmonised management, which is essential to reduce negative impacts of the coypu and to prevent further spread in Europe.

Highlights and trends in exploration 2009

2010 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 113
Author(s):  
Gordon Wakelin-King
Keyword(s):  
New South ◽  
Petroleum Industry ◽  
South Australia ◽  
Success Rates ◽  
Flight To Quality ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Seismic Acquisition ◽  
Coal Seam Methane ◽  
Western Australian ◽  
Low Activity

2009 saw an overall decrease from high activity from 2008, levelling off in the December quarter as the economy stabilised. Unsurprisingly, most activity was in offshore Western Australia and on coal seam methane (CSM) in Queensland. Highlights include: good results in the Carnarvon and Browse basins for Western Australian operators, interest in Karoon and Conoco-Phillips’ enigmatic Poseidon project, over 180 CSM exploration wells in Queenslandd, and a relatively busy year for Tasmania. Western Australian seismic acquisition approached 10,000 km of 2D and 25,000 km2 of 3D for 38* wells and success rate around 50%. South Australia saw the highest conventional onshore drilling and seismic activity, with good results for 17 wells, while other states saw low activity in this sector. Victoria saw one offshore exploration well and no seismic. Tasmania also saw no new seismic, but saw four exploration wells and encouragement at Rockhopper–1. CSM is picking up in South Australia, and New South Wales saw continued high CSM activity in a historically low-activity region. High success rates suggest two trends: explorers finding value in 3D seismic, and a ‘flight to quality’ as operating costs and poorer access to capital reinforce risk aversion among operators. Elsewhere, geothermal energy helped small cap investors satisfy their appetite for risk outside of the petroleum industry, and results will be watched with great interest. *Numbers are from early public and departmental statistics and may be revised.

The response of Bonis Catchment in Calabria –Southern Italy to different management options under climate change scenarios.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mouna Feki ◽  
Giovanni Ravazzani ◽  
Tommaso Caloiero ◽  
Gaetano Pellicone
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southern Italy ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Mountain Area ◽  
Small Catchment

<p>Forests ecosystems provide several ecosystem services among which the regulation of the hydrological cycle. These ecosystems are exposed to different forms of disturbances induced by human activities, management strategies, and climate change. The objective of INNOMED project, for the Italian case study, is to understand the response of forest to different silvicultural practices under climate change conditions. The study site is the the Bonis catchment located in the mountain area of Sila Greca (39°25’15’’N, 16°12’38’’W), in the Calabria region (southern Italy). This small catchment has a surface of 1.39 km<sup>2</sup> and a mean elevation of 1131 m above sea level. Almost 93% of the total area is covered by forest stand, dominated by about 50-year-old Calabrian pine (Pinus laricio Poiret) forests. In order to simulate the response of the catchment to different climate and management scenarios, FEST-WB distributed hydrological model was used. Within the framework of this project, FEST-FOREST module has been implemented in order to consider vegetation dynamics interactions with the hydrological response of the watershed. Since 1986, the basin was monitored through the installation of different instruments. Rainfall was measured by three rain gauges (with a tipping bucket) together with temperature that were measured at three different meteorological stations. In May 2003, a tower for measurement of eddy fluxes was installed at an altitude of 1100 m a.s.l, on a 54 years old plantation of Laricio pine which allowed monitoring of other parameters. Runoff was measured at the outlet of the catchment using a gauging structure. These data were used for the calibration and validation of the model before being implemented for future scenarios simulations. The results of these simulations delivered the potential impacts and the vulnerability of the Bonis catchment to different scenarios. These outcomes provide for the stakeholders a scientifically based and solid information for a sustainable management of the catchment.</p>

Multifunctionality in European mountain forests — an optimization under changing climatic conditions

2016 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 163-171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabian H. Härtl ◽  
Ivan Barka ◽  
W. Andreas Hahn ◽  
Tomáš Hlásny ◽  
Florian Irauschek ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Service ◽  
Growth Conditions ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Nature Management ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Mountain Forests ◽  
Management Options ◽  
European Mountain ◽  
Fall Protection

Forests provide countless ecological, societal, and climatological benefits. With changing climate, maintaining certain services may lead to a decrease in the quantity or quality of other services available from that source. Accordingly, our research objective is to analyze the effects of the provision of a certain ecosystem service on the economically optimized harvest schedules and how harvest schedules will be influenced by climate change. Based on financial portfolio theory, we determined, for two case study regions in Austria and Slovakia, treatment schedules based on nonlinear programming, which integrates climate-sensitive biophysical risks and risk-averting behavior of the management. In both cases, results recommend reducing the overaged stocking volume within several decades to establish new ingrowth, leading to an overall reduction of age and related risk, as well as an increase in growth. Under climate change conditions, the admixing of hardwoods towards spruce–fir–beech (Austria) or spruce–pine–beech (Slovakia) stands should be emphasized to account for the changing risk and growth conditions. Moreover, climate change scenarios either increased (Austria) or decreased (Slovakia) the economic return slightly. In both cases, the costs for providing the ecosystem service “rock fall protection” increases under climate change. Although in the Austrian case there is no clear tendency between the management options, in the Slovakian case, a close-to-nature management option is preferred under climate change conditions. Increasing tree species richness, increasing structural diversity, replacing high-risk stands, and reducing average growing stocks are important preconditions for a successful sustainable management of European mountain forests in the long term.

scholarly journals Modeling the current distribution suitability and future dynamics of Culicoides imicola under climate change scenarios

PeerJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. e12308
Author(s):  
Hongyan Gao ◽  
Long Wang ◽  
Jun Ma ◽  
Xiang Gao ◽  
Jianhua Xiao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Current Distribution ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
African Horse Sickness ◽  
Vector Surveillance ◽  
Culicoides Imicola

Background African horse sickness, a transboundary and non-contagious arboviral infectious disease of equids, has spread without any warning from sub-Saharan Africa towards the Southeast Asian countries in 2020. It is imperative to predict the global distribution of Culicoides imicola (C. imicola), which was the main vector of African horse sickness virus. Methods The occurrence records of C. imicola were mainly obtained from the published literature and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database. The maximum entropy algorithm was used to model the current distribution suitability and future dynamics of C. imicola under climate change scenarios. Results The modeling results showed that the currently suitable habitats for C. imicola were distributed in most of the southern part areas of America, southwestern Europe, most of Africa, the coastal areas of the Middle East, almost all regions of South Asia, southern China, a few countries in Southeast Asia, and the whole Australia. Our model also revealed the important environmental variables on the distribution of C. imicola were temperature seasonality, precipitation of coldest quarter, and mean temperature of wettest quarter. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) is an assumption of possible greenhouse gases emissions in the future. Under future climate change scenarios, the area of habitat suitability increased and decreased with time, and RCP 8.5 in the 2070s gave the worst prediction. Moreover, the habitat suitability of C. imicola will likely expand to higher latitudes. The prediction of this study is of strategic significance for vector surveillance and the prevention of vector-borne diseases.

scholarly journals Geographic distribution of Desmodus rotundus in Mexico under current and future climate change scenarios: Implications for bovine paralytic rabies infection

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Heliot Zarza ◽  
Enrique Martínez-Meyer ◽  
Gerardo Suzán ◽  
Gerardo Ceballos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Geographic Distribution ◽  
Current Distribution ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Epidemiological Surveillance ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Desmodus Rotundus

Veterinaria México OA ISSN: 2448-6760Cite this as:Zarza H, Martínez-Meyer E, Suzán G, Ceballos G. Geographic distribution of Desmodus rotundus in Mexico under current and future climate change scenarios: Implications for bovine paralytic rabies infection. Veterinaria México OA. 2017;4(3). doi: 10.21753/vmoa.4.3.390.Climate change may modify the spatial distribution of reservoirs hosting emerging and reemerging zoonotic pathogens, and forecasting these changes is essential for developing prevention and adaptation strategies. The most important reservoir of bovine paralytic rabies in tropical countries, is the vampire bat (Desmodus rotundus). In Mexico, the cattle industry loses more than $2.6 million US dollar, annually to this infectious disease. Therefore, we predicted the change in the distribution of D. rotundus due to future climate change scenarios, and examined the likely effect that the change in its distribution will have on paralytic rabies infections in Mexico. We used the correlative maximum entropy based model algorithm to predict the potential distribution of D. rotundus. Consistent with the literature, our results showed that temperature was the variable most highly associated with the current distribution of vampire bats. The highest concentration of bovine rabies was in Central and Southeastern Mexico, regions that also have high cattle population densities. Furthermore, our climatic envelope models predicted that by 2050–2070, D. rotundus will lose 20 % of its current distribution while the northern and central regions of Mexico will become suitable habitats for D. rotundus. Together, our study provides an advanced notice of the likely change in spatial patterns of D. rotundus and bovine paralytic rabies, and presents an important tool for strengthening the National Epidemiological Surveillance System and Monitoring programmes, useful for establishing holistic, long-term strategies to control this disease in Mexico.Figure 4. Modelled suitability for future distribution of Desmodus rotundus according to Global Climate Model GFDL-CM3 for two time periods (2050 and 2070), and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). Left-hand column shows suitability values, with blue indicating more suitable conditions.

scholarly journals Prediction of the Suitable Area of the Chinese White Pines (Pinus subsect. Strobus) under Climate Changes and Implications for Their Conservation

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 996
Author(s):  
Lele Lin ◽  
Jian He ◽  
Lei Xie ◽  
Guofa Cui
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Current Distribution ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Ex Situ ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
White Pine ◽  
Chinese White ◽  
The Future ◽  
Pine Species

White pines (Pinus subsect. Strobus) play important roles in forest ecosystems in the Northern Hemisphere. Species of this group are narrowly distributed or endangered in China. In this study, we used a species distribution model (SDM) to project and predict the distribution patterns of the 12 species of Chinese white pine under a variety of paleoclimatic and future climate change scenarios based on 39 high-resolution environmental variables and 1459 distribution records. We also computed the centroid shift, range expansion/contraction, and suitability change of the current distribution area to assess the potential risk to each species in the future. The modeling results revealed that the suitable habitat of each species is consistent with but slightly larger than its actual distribution range and that temperature, precipitation, and UV radiation are important determining factors for the distribution of different white pine species. The results indicate that the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) greatly affected the current distribution of the Chinese white pine species. Additionally, it was predicted that under the future climate change scenarios, there will be a reduction in the area of habitats suitable for P. armandii, P. morrisonicola, and P. mastersiana. Furthermore, some of the current distribution sites of P. armandii, P. kwangtungensis, P. mastersiana, P. morrisonicola, P. sibirica, and P. wallichiana were predicted to become more unsuitable under these scenarios. These results indicate that some Chinese white pine species, such as P. armandii, P. morrisonicola, and P. mastersiana, may have a very high risk of population shrinkage in the future. Overall, this study provided relevant data for the long-term conservation (both in situ and ex situ) and sustainable management of Chinese white pine species.

A Morphological and Electrophoretic Examination of Hydrobia Buccinoides, a Variable Brackish-Water Gastropod From Temperate Australia (Mollusca, Hydrobiidae)

1988 ◽  
Vol 36 (6) ◽  
pp. 661 ◽  
Author(s):  
WF Ponder ◽  
GA Clark
Keyword(s):  
Brackish Water ◽  
New Genus ◽  
New South ◽  
South Australia ◽  
Valid Species ◽  
Separate Species ◽  
Intrapopulation Variation ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Western Australian

The morphology of the abundant brackish-water hydrobiid snail known as 'Hydrobia buccinoides' is described. A new genus, Ascorhis, is provided for it and the valid species name for the southern (South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania) and eastern (New South Wales, Queensland) populations is shown to be victoriae T. Woods. The species name buccinoides is based on Assiminea tasmanica and is an earlier name for that species. Morphological and allozyme differences indicate that the Western Australian populations should be distinguished as a separate species and a new name (A. occidua) is provided for these. Both species show a considerable intrapopulation variation in shell sculpture. Salinity tolerance experiments on three Sydney populations indicate that Ascorhis victoriae tolerates a wide range of salinities, the middle of the preferred range being about that of normal seawater.

Using spatial simulations of habitat modification for adaptive management of protected areas: Mediterranean grassland modification by woody plant encroachment

2013 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 144-156 ◽  
Author(s):  
PAOLA MAIROTA ◽  
VINCENZO LERONNI ◽  
WEIMIN XI ◽  
DAVID J. MLADENOFF ◽  
HARINI NAGENDRA
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
Habitat Modification ◽  
Conservation Strategy ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Spatial Simulation ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Landscape Pattern Metrics ◽  
Management Regimes

SUMMARYSpatial simulation may be used to model the potential effects of current biodiversity approaches on future habitat modification under differing climate change scenarios. To illustrate the approach, spatial simulation models, including landscape-level forest dynamics, were developed for a semi-natural grassland of conservation concern in a southern Italian protected area, which was exposed to woody vegetation encroachment. A forest landscape dynamics simulator (LANDIS-II) under conditions of climate change, current fire and alternative management regimes was used to develop scenario maps. Landscape pattern metrics provided data on fragmentation and habitat quality degradation, and quantified the spatial spread of different tree species within grassland habitats. The models indicated that approximately one-third of the grassland area would be impacted by loss, fragmentation and degradation in the next 150 years. Differing forest management regimes appear to influence the type of encroaching species and the density of encroaching vegetation. Habitat modifications are likely to affect species distribution and interactions, as well as local ecosystem functioning, leading to changes in estimated conservation value. A site-scale conservation strategy based on feasible integrated fire and forest management options is proposed, considering the debate on the effectiveness of protected areas for the conservation of ecosystem services in a changing climate. This needs to be tested through further modelling and scenario analysis, which would benefit from the enhancement of current modelling capabilities of LANDIS-II and from combination with remote sensing technologies, to provide early signals of environmental shifts both within and outside protected areas.

A General Account of the Intertidal Ecology of South Australian Coasts

1958 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 217 ◽  
Author(s):  
HBS Womersly ◽  
SJ Edmonds
Keyword(s):  
Western Australia ◽  
Littoral Zone ◽  
South Australia ◽  
Transitional Region ◽  
The South ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Marine Angiosperms ◽  
Rocky Coast ◽  
Warm Temperate ◽  
Western Australian

An account is given of the environmental features. the intertidal ecology. and the biogeographical relationships of the coast of the State of South Australia . The central and western coasts of South Australia are similar ecologically in comparable areas . In the supralittoral Melaraphe unifasciata (Gray) is dominant (except where conditions are very calm) and at high levels on very exposed coasts Calothrix fasciculata C. Agardh is found. The littoral zone where the coast is most exposed consists of barnacles-Chamaesipho in the upper littoral, Catophragmus in the mid littoral, and Balanus in the lower littoral-but where the coast is more sheltered it consists of molluscs in the upper and mid littoral and algae (Corallina, Gelidium, or Hormosira) in the lower littoral. In the upper sublittoral fucoid algae or in calm regions marine angiosperms are dominant. The south-east coast, however, differs in some respects from the central and west coasts. The number of barnacles found in the littoral zone is much reduced and the giant brown algae, Durvillea potatorum Areschoug and Macrocystis angustifolia Bory, are dominant in the upper sublittoral. This is associated with slightly lower sea temperatures. Sheltered coasts are more prominent in South Australia than in the eastern States of Australia. These include the shores of Spencer and St. Vincent Gulfs, the northern shores of Kangaroo I., and a number of scattered bays. The similarities between the coasts of South Australia and Victoria (Bennett and Pope 1953) are greater than the differences. Consequently the proposal of Bennett and Pope to recognize the Victorian and Tasmanian coasts as the Maugean Biogeographical Provinoe and the South Australian and the south-west Western Australian coasts as the Flindersian Province appears to be unjustified. It is suggested that the Naugean is best regarded as a subprovince with the Flindersian. The latter includes most of the coast of southern Australia. Considerable differences are noticeable between the organisms which inhabit the rocky coast of South Australia and the south coast of Western Australia. The available evidence indicates that a transition from the Flindersian to the tropical Dampierian Province occurs along the south and west coasts of Western Australia. The terms "Indo-Australian Province" and "Baudinian Province" have been proposed by previous authors to describe this transitional region. The Flindersian Province appears to be intermediate between cold-temperate and warm-temperate regions, becoming distinctly cool-temperate in Tasmania. It is relatively distinct from the warm-temperate Peronian Province of the coast of New South Wales.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document