Spatial correlates of forest and land fires in Indonesia

Biomass fires in Indonesia emit high levels of greenhouse gases and particulate matter, key contributors to global climate change and poor air quality in south-east Asia. In order to better understand the drivers of biomass fires across Indonesia over multiple years, we examined the distribution and probability of fires in Sumatra, Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo) and Papua (western New Guinea) over four entire calendar years (2002, 2005, 2011 and 2015). The 4 years of data represent years with El Niño and La Niña conditions and high levels of data availability in the study region. Generalised linear mixed-effects models and zero-inflated negative binomial models were used to relate fire hotspots and a range of spatial predictor data. Geographic differences in occurrences of fire hotspots were evident. Fire probability was greatest in mixed-production agriculture lands and in deeper, degraded peatlands, suggesting anthropogenic activities were strong determinants of burning. Drought conditions in El Niño years were also significant. The results demonstrate the importance of prioritising areas of high fire probability, based on land use and other predisposing conditions, in effective fire management planning.

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Corrigendum to: Spatial correlates of forest and land fires in Indonesia

International Journal of Wildland Fire ◽

10.1071/wf20036_co ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 30 (9) ◽

pp. 732

Author(s):

Z. D. Tan ◽

L. R. Carrasco ◽

D. Taylor

Keyword(s):

El Niño ◽

Negative Binomial ◽

El Nino ◽

Global Climate ◽

Anthropogenic Activities ◽

Data Availability ◽

Management Planning ◽

Study Region ◽

Linear Mixed Effects ◽

Binomial Models

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Environmental variability during the last three millennia in the rain shadows of central Mexico

Boletín de la Sociedad Geológica Mexicana ◽

10.18268/bsgm2021v73n1a171220 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 73 (1) ◽

pp. A171220

Author(s):

Gustavo Olivares-Casillas ◽

Alex Correa-Metrio ◽

Edyta Zawisza ◽

Marta Wojewódka-Przybył ◽

Maarten Blaauw ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

El Niño ◽

High Frequency ◽

Environmental Variability ◽

El Nino ◽

Global Climate ◽

Anthropogenic Activities ◽

Climatic Variability ◽

Sea Surface ◽

Ice Age

The last three millennia have been characterized by global temperature oscillations of around one Celsius degree, and high frequency variability on precipitation. Two main temperature anomalies have been reported worldwide, the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA), characterized by higher and lower than average temperatures, respectively. Precipitation variability has been mostly associated with El Niño anomalies in the Equatorial Pacific. These global variability modes have been modulated by regional factors such as sea surface temperatures and their interaction with continental landmasses. Understanding regional responses to these anomalies would shed light on ecosystem response to environmental variability, a paramount tool for conservation purposes on the light of modern climate change. Here we present a 3,000-year sedimentary record from Lake Metztitlán, located in a Biosphere Reserve under the rain shadow of the Sierra Madre Oriental. Cladoceran and geochemical analyses were used to reconstruct lacustrine dynamics through the time period encompassed by the record. Our record points to highly dynamic lacustrine systems, coupled with global and regional climatic variability. In Metztitlán, the MWP was associated with low lake levels and a high torrentiality of the precipitation reflected in high-frequency peaks of detrital material. The LIA was associated with an enlarged water body, probably as a result of lower evapotranspiration. Overall, global climatic variability resulted in high variability of regional precipitation and detrital input in the Metztitlán region, in turn associated with changes in lake morphometry and depth. Our record highlights the vulnerability of the area to changes in sea surface temperature of the Gulf of Mexico, and to changes in the frequency of El Niño events. Although the effects of global climate change in the region are inescapable, our results emphasize the importance of controlling anthropogenic activities as an additional source of pressure on the regional ecosystems.

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Analyzing and Visualizing Spatiotemporal Patterns of El Niño Teleconnections Using Attribute Trajectories

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos12040414 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (4) ◽

pp. 414

Author(s):

Long Zhang ◽

Bert Van Schaeybroeck ◽

Steven Caluwaerts ◽

Piet Termonia ◽

Nico Van de Weghe

Keyword(s):

Data Structures ◽

El Niño ◽

Temperature Increase ◽

El Nino ◽

Global Climate ◽

Spatiotemporal Patterns ◽

New Method ◽

Anomalous Temperature ◽

General Dynamics ◽

The Relationship

El Niño influences the global climate through teleconnections that are not constant in space and time. In order to study and visualize the spatiotemporal patterns of the El Niño teleconnections, a new method inspired by the concept of attribute trajectories is proposed. The coordinates of the trajectories are the normalized anomalies of the relevant meteorological variables in El Niño. The data structures called flocks are extracted from the trajectories to indicate the regions that are subject to the same type of El Niño teleconnection for a certain period. It is then shown how these structures can be used to get a detailed, spatiotemporal picture of the dynamics of the El Niño teleconnections. The comparison between the flocks of the same temporal scale reveals the general dynamics of the teleconnection, while the analysis among the flocks of different temporal scales indicates the relationship between the coverage and their duration. As an illustration of this method, the spatiotemporal patterns of the anomalous temperature increase caused by El Niño are presented and discussed at the monthly and seasonal scales. This study demonstrates the capability of the proposed method in analyzing and visualizing the spatiotemporal patterns of the teleconnections.

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Spurious North Tropical Atlantic precursors to El Niño

Nature Communications ◽

10.1038/s41467-021-23411-6 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Wenjun Zhang ◽

Feng Jiang ◽

Malte F. Stuecker ◽

Fei-Fei Jin ◽

Axel Timmermann

Keyword(s):

El Niño ◽

Cross Correlation ◽

El Nino ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Global Climate ◽

Tropical Atlantic ◽

The North ◽

Sst Variability ◽

Primary Driver ◽

North Tropical Atlantic

AbstractThe El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the primary driver of year-to-year global climate variability, is known to influence the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST), especially during boreal spring season. Focusing on statistical lead-lag relationships, previous studies have proposed that interannual NTA SST variability can also feed back on ENSO in a predictable manner. However, these studies did not properly account for ENSO’s autocorrelation and the fact that the SST in the Atlantic and Pacific, as well as their interaction are seasonally modulated. This can lead to misinterpretations of causality and the spurious identification of Atlantic precursors for ENSO. Revisiting this issue under consideration of seasonality, time-varying ENSO frequency, and greenhouse warming, we demonstrate that the cross-correlation characteristics between NTA SST and ENSO, are consistent with a one-way Pacific to Atlantic forcing, even though the interpretation of lead-lag relationships may suggest otherwise.

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The El Niño: A Meteorological Risk Factor for Vector-borne Diseases

10.51627/pghr.2021.07.00063 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Avi Patel ◽

Keyword(s):

El Niño ◽

Neglected Tropical Diseases ◽

El Nino ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Global Climate ◽

Economic Loss ◽

Tropical Diseases ◽

Vector Borne Diseases ◽

Vector Borne ◽

Climate Crisis

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been ravaging numerous coastal and inland communities with excessive flooding and drought conditions, causing immense economic loss, and the incidence of many neglected tropical diseases. Affecting over 60 million people directly, El Niño remains one of the greatest enigmas to human health, and combined with the ever-escalating global climate crisis, El Niño events are only projected to increase in magnitude in the coming years (WHO, 2016).

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The Impact of Obliquity Change on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and La Niña Climate Episodes

10.31219/osf.io/6w2eu ◽

2022 ◽

Author(s):

Paul C. Rivera

Keyword(s):

El Niño ◽

El Nino ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

La Niña ◽

El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽

El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽

La Nina ◽

The Impact

An alternative physical mechanism is proposed to describe the occurrence of the episodic El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and La Nina climatic phenomena. This is based on the earthquake-perturbed obliquity change (EPOCH) model previously discovered as a major cause of the global climate change problem. Massive quakes impart a very strong oceanic force that can move the moon which in turn pulls the earth’s axis and change the planetary obliquity. Analysis of the annual geomagnetic north-pole shift and global seismic data revealed this previously undiscovered force. Using a higher obliquity in the global climate model EdGCM and constant greenhouse gas forcing showed that the seismic-induced polar motion and associated enhanced obliquity could be the major mechanism governing the mysterious climate anomalies attributed to El Nino and La Nina cycles.

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KARAKTERISTIK KONSENTRASI CH4 (METANA) DI BEBERAPA KOTA BESAR DAN KOTA KECIL DI INDONESIA

MAJALAH ILMIAH GLOBE ◽

10.24895/mig.2017.19-2.619 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 19 (2) ◽

pp. 167

Author(s):

Indah Susanti ◽

Lilik Slamet S ◽

Waluyo Eko Cahyono

Keyword(s):

El Niño ◽

El Nino ◽

Anthropogenic Activities ◽

Small Towns ◽

Statistical Regression ◽

Friedman Test ◽

Large Cities ◽

Infra Red ◽

Level 3 ◽

Using Data

ABSTRAKKeberadaan konsentrasi CH4 di atmosfer berasal dari sumber emisi CH4 di permukaan bumi baik asal antropogenik maupun alami. Bobot molekul CH4 yang ringan mengakibatkan CH4 dapat bergerak vertikal sampai ke stratosfer. Konsentrasi CH4 yang tak terkendali berakibat pada pemanasan global dan perubahan iklim, sehingga perlu dipahami karakteristik CH4 terutama di beberapa kota besar (Jakarta, Medan, Makassar) dan kota kecil (Ambon, Biak Numfor, Pangkal Pinang) di Indonesia. Dengan menggunakan data Atmospheric Infra Red Soundings (AIRS) level 3 yang memiliki resolusi spasial satu derajat dan resolusi temporal bulanan, untuk periode waktu 2003-2015, dikaji kecenderungan konsentrasi CH4 di enam kota dan anomalinya pada beberapa ketinggian atmosfer serta analisis pengaruh kategori kota (kota besar dan kota kecil berdasarkan jumlah penduduk) terhadap konsentrasi CH4. Metode yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah analisis spasial horizontal dan vertical dengan bantuan Software Grads untuk mengetahui daerah mana dan pada level ketinggian mana terjadi perubahan konsentrasi CH4, serta ditunjang oleh analisis statistik regresi dan uji Friedman serta uji Tukey untuk mengetahui apakah ada pengaruh kategori kota terhadap konsentrasi CH4 di atmosfer. Hasilnya menunjukkan adanya penurunan konsentrasi CH4 terhadap ketinggian atmosfer dengan pola logaritmik (eksponensial) yang sebagian besar berasal dari kegiatan di permukaan bumi. Fluktuasi konsentrasi CH4 di atmosfer disebabkan salah satunya oleh El Nino Southern Oscilation (ENSO). Kondisi ini tampak dari kesamaan pola nilai indeks ENSO dan konsentrasi CH4. Berdasarkan penelitian dengan menggunakan uji Friedman dan uji Tukey dihasilkan bahwa klasifikasi kota menjadi kota besar dan kota kecil tidak berpengaruh pada konsentrasi CH4.Kata kunci: profil, metana, AIRS, statistik, klasifikasi, kotaABSTRACTConcentration of CH4 in the atmosphere comes from the source of CH4 emissions on the earth's surface either natural or anthropogenic activities. The light molecular weight resulting CH4 can move vertically up into the stratosphere. Unbridled CH4 concentration resulted in global warming and climate change. So, it’s important to understand CH4 characteristics, especially in large cities (Jakarta, Medan, Makassar) and small towns (Ambon, Biak Noemfoor, Pangkal Pinang) in Indonesia. Using data Atmospheric Infra Red Soundings (AIRS) level 3 which has a spatial resolution of one degree and monthly temporal resolution, for time period from 2003 to 2015, we analyzed the tendency of concentration of CH4 in 6 cities and its anomalies in some altitude atmosphere as well as analysis of the influence of the city category (cities and towns based on population) towards the CH4 concentration. The method used in this research is the analysis of spatial horizontal and vertical using Grads to know region and altitude levels which have change the concentration of CH4. In additon, supported by statistical regression analysis and Friedman test and Tukey test to determine whether there is any relation between city category against concentration of CH4 in the atmosphere. The results indicate a decrease in the height of atmospheric CH4 concentrations with the pattern of logarithmic (exponential) is mostly derived from activities in the Earth's surface. Fluctuations in the concentration of CH4 in the atmosphere caused among other is by El Nino Southern Oscilation (ENSO). This condition appears on the similarities of the ENSO index values and CH4 concentrations. Based on research by using the Friedman test and Tukey's test result that classification of cities and towns has no effect on the concentration of CH4.Keywords: profile, CH4, AIRS, statistic, classification, city

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The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on global photosynthesis using satellite remote sensing

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences ◽

10.1098/rstb.2017.0409 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 373 (1760) ◽

pp. 20170409 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

Xiangzhong Luo ◽

Trevor F. Keenan ◽

Joshua B. Fisher ◽

Juan-Carlos Jiménez-Muñoz ◽

Jing M. Chen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Remote Sensing ◽

Carbon Cycle ◽

El Niño ◽

El Nino ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Carbon Sink ◽

Global Climate ◽

Prognostic Models ◽

Positive Anomaly ◽

The Impact

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation exerts a large influence on global climate regimes and on the global carbon cycle. Although El Niño is known to be associated with a reduction of the global total land carbon sink, results based on prognostic models or measurements disagree over the relative contribution of photosynthesis to the reduced sink. Here, we provide an independent remote sensing-based analysis on the impact of the 2015–2016 El Niño on global photosynthesis using six global satellite-based photosynthesis products and a global solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) dataset. An ensemble of satellite-based photosynthesis products showed a negative anomaly of −0.7 ± 1.2 PgC in 2015, but a slight positive anomaly of 0.05 ± 0.89 PgC in 2016, which when combined with observations of the growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations suggests that the reduction of the land residual sink was likely dominated by photosynthesis in 2015 but by respiration in 2016. The six satellite-based products unanimously identified a major photosynthesis reduction of −1.1 ± 0.52 PgC from savannahs in 2015 and 2016, followed by a highly uncertain reduction of −0.22 ± 0.98 PgC from rainforests. Vegetation in the Northern Hemisphere enhanced photosynthesis before and after the peak El Niño, especially in grasslands (0.33 ± 0.13 PgC). The patterns of satellite-based photosynthesis ensemble mean were corroborated by SIF, except in rainforests and South America, where the anomalies of satellite-based photosynthesis products also diverged the most. We found the inter-model variation of photosynthesis estimates was strongly related to the discrepancy between moisture forcings for models. These results highlight the importance of considering multiple photosynthesis proxies when assessing responses to climatic anomalies. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.

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Climate Variability in the Context of Climate Change: El Niño and Other Oscillations

Climate Variability and the Global Harvest ◽

10.1093/oso/9780195137637.003.0006 ◽

2008 ◽

Author(s):

Cynthia Rosenzweig ◽

Daniel Hillel

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Variability ◽

North Atlantic ◽

El Niño ◽

El Nino ◽

Global Climate ◽

Climate System ◽

The Arctic ◽

The Pacific ◽

Earth’S Climate

The climate system envelops our planet, with swirling fluxes of mass, momentum, and energy through air, water, and land. Its processes are partly regular and partly chaotic. The regularity of diurnal and seasonal fluctuations in these processes is well understood. Recently, there has been significant progress in understanding some of the mechanisms that induce deviations from that regularity in many parts of the globe. These mechanisms include a set of combined oceanic–atmospheric phenomena with quasi-regular manifestations. The largest of these is centered in the Pacific Ocean and is known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The term “oscillation” refers to a shifting pattern of atmospheric pressure gradients that has distinct manifestations in its alternating phases. In the Arctic and North Atlantic regions, the occurrence of somewhat analogous but less regular interactions known as the Arctic Oscillation and its offshoot, the North Atlantic Oscillation, are also being studied. These and other major oscillations influence climate patterns in many parts of the globe. Examples of other large-scale interactive ocean–atmosphere– land processes are the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, the Pacific/North American pattern, the Tropical Atlantic Variability, the West Pacific pattern, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, and the Indian Ocean Dipole. In this chapter we review the earth’s climate system in general, define climate variability, and describe the processes related to ENSO and the other major systems and their interactions. We then consider the possible connections of the major climate variability systems to anthropogenic global climate change. The climate system consists of a series of fluxes and transformations of energy (radiation, sensible and latent heat, and momentum), as well as transports and changes in the state of matter (air, water, solid matter, and biota) as conveyed and influenced by the atmosphere, the ocean, and the land masses. Acting like a giant engine, this dynamic system is driven by the infusion, transformation, and redistribution of energy.

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El Niño and the Nomads: Global Climate, Local Environment, and the Crisis of Pastoralism in Late Ottoman Kurdistan

Journal of the Economic and Social History of the Orient ◽

10.1163/15685209-12341513 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 63 (3) ◽

pp. 316-356

Author(s):

Zozan Pehlivan

Keyword(s):

El Niño ◽

El Nino ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Global Climate ◽

Local Environment ◽

Premature Death ◽

Social Consequences ◽

Late Nineteenth Century ◽

Severe Drought ◽

Climatic Fluctuations

Abstract This article explores the impacts of environmental crises on pastoral nomads in Ottoman Kurdistan/Armenia in the late nineteenth-century. It demonstrates that the climatic fluctuations characterizing these environmental crises were synchronized with global climatic oscillations, specifically the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Recurrent episodes of severe drought and cold dramatically affected these groups, who were unable to withstand extreme changes in temperature and precipitation. Back-to-back drought episodes created a shortage of water, dried up pastures and damaged forage, while severe cold resulted in high rates of premature death among herd animals. These climatic events thus had devastating economic and social consequences.

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