scholarly journals Maize yields over Europe may increase in spite of climate change, with an appropriate use of the genetic variability of flowering time

2018 ◽  
Vol 115 (42) ◽  
pp. 10642-10647 ◽  
Author(s):  
Boris Parent ◽  
Margot Leclere ◽  
Sébastien Lacube ◽  
Mikhail A. Semenov ◽  
Claude Welcker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Genetic Variability ◽  
Flowering Time ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Field Experiments ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Cycle Duration ◽  
Crop Cycle ◽  
Maize Yields ◽  
European Maize

Projections based on invariant genotypes and agronomic practices indicate that climate change will largely decrease crop yields. The comparatively few studies considering farmers’ adaptation result in a diversity of impacts depending on their assumptions. We combined experiments and process-based modeling for analyzing the consequences of climate change on European maize yields if farmers made the best use of the current genetic variability of cycle duration, based on practices they currently use. We first showed that the genetic variability of maize flowering time is sufficient for identifying a cycle duration that maximizes yield in a range of European climatic conditions. This was observed in six field experiments with a panel of 121 accessions and extended to 59 European sites over 36 years with a crop model. The assumption that farmers use optimal cycle duration and sowing date was supported by comparison with historical data. Simulations were then carried out for 2050 with 3 million combinations of crop cycle durations, climate scenarios, management practices, and modeling hypotheses. Simulated grain production over Europe in 2050 was stable (−1 to +1%) compared with the 1975–2010 baseline period under the hypotheses of unchanged cycle duration, whereas it was increased (+4–7%) when crop cycle duration and sowing dates were optimized in each local environment. The combined effects of climate change and farmer adaptation reduced the yield gradient between south and north of Europe and increased European maize production if farmers continued to make the best use of the genetic variability of crop cycle duration.

Future global crop production increases by adapting crop phenology to local climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Minoli ◽  
Jonas Jägermeyr ◽  
Senthold Asseng ◽  
Christoph Müller
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Crop Productivity ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Systematic Evaluation ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Crop Phenology

<p>Broad evidence is pointing at possible adverse impacts of climate change on crop yields. Due to scarce information about farming management practices, most global-scale studies, however, do not consider adaptation strategies.</p><p>Here we integrate models of farmers' decision making with crop biophysical modeling at the global scale to investigate how accounting for adaptation of crop phenology affects projections of future crop productivity under climate change. Farmers in each simulation unit are assumed to adapt crop growing periods by continuously selecting sowing dates and cultivars that match climatic conditions best. We compare counterfactual management scenarios, assuming crop calendars and cultivars to be either the same as in the reference climate – as often assumed in previous climate impact assessments – or adapted to future climate.</p><p>Based on crop model simulations, we find that the implementation of adapted growing periods can substantially increase (+15%) total crop production in 2080-2099 (RCP6.0). In general, summer crops are responsive to both sowing and harvest date adjustments, which result in overall longer growing periods and improved yields, compared to production systems without adaptation of growing periods. Winter wheat presents challenges in adapting to a warming climate and requires region-specific adjustments to pre and post winter conditions. We present a systematic evaluation of how local and climate-scenario specific adaptation strategies can enhance global crop productivity on current cropland. Our findings highlight the importance of further research on the readiness of required crop varieties.</p>

scholarly journals Evaluation of Long-Term SOC and Crop Productivity within Conservation Systems Using GFDL CM2.1 and EPIC

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 2665 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kieu N. Le ◽  
Manoj K. Jha ◽  
Jaehak Jeong ◽  
Philip W. Gassman ◽  
Manuel R. Reyes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Upland Rice ◽  
Cropping Systems ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Crop Productivity ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Epic Model

Will soil organic carbon (SOC) and yields increase for conservation management systems in tropical zones in response to the next 100 years? To answer the question, the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was used to study the effects of climate change, cropping systems, conservation agriculture (CA) and conservation tillage management practices on SOC and crop productivity in Kampong Cham, Cambodia. The EPIC model was successfully calibrated and validated for crop yields, biomass, SOC and nitrogen based on field data from a five-year field experiment. Historical weather (1994–2013) was used for baseline assessment versus mid-century (2046–2064) and late-century (2081–2100) climate projections generated by the Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) CM2.1 global climate model. The simulated results showed that upland rice yield would increase the most under the B1 scenario in mid-century for all treatments, followed by soybean and maize. Cassava yield only increased under CA treatment when cultivated as a continuous primary crop. Carbon sequestration was more sensitive to cropping systems and crop rotation than climate change. The results indicated that the rotated CA primary crop (maize) systems should be prioritized for SOC sequestration as well as for increasing crop productivity. In addition, rice systems may increase SOC compared to soybean and cassava.

Climate change impacts on European wheat and maize yields

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Toreti ◽  
Andrej Ceglar ◽  
Frank Dentener ◽  
Davide Fumagalli ◽  
Simona Bassu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Precipitation Regimes ◽  
Maize Yields ◽  
Projected Changes

<p>Crop yields are influenced and affected by climate conditions and the occurrence of extreme events in critical phenological phases during the growing season. As projected climate change for Europe points to an increase of climate extremes as well as a significant warming together with changes in precipitation regimes, it is essential to assess impacts on key socio-economic sectors such as agriculture. Here, we analyse European wheat and maize yields as projected by a crop model driven by bias-adjusted Euro-CORDEX regional climate model simulations under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The main findings highlight as maize will be the most affected crop with limited effects of simple adaptation strategies; while a north-south dipole in the projected changes characterizes wheat yields. In the wheat regions negatively affected by climate change, adaptation strategies will play a key role in counterbalancing the impacts of the projected changes. </p>

scholarly journals A global dataset for crop production under conventional tillage and no tillage systems

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Su ◽  
Benoit Gabrielle ◽  
David Makowski
Keyword(s):  
Crop Production ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Field Experiments ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Conventional Tillage ◽  
High Variability ◽  
Environmental Externalities ◽  
No Tillage ◽  
Insight Into

AbstractNo tillage (NT) is often presented as a means to grow crops with positive environmental externalities, such as enhanced carbon sequestration, improved soil quality, reduced soil erosion, and increased biodiversity. However, whether NT systems are as productive as those relying on conventional tillage (CT) is a controversial issue, fraught by a high variability over time and space. Here, we expand existing datasets to include the results of the most recent field experiments, and we produce a global dataset comparing the crop yields obtained under CT and NT systems. In addition to crop yield, our dataset also reports information on crop growing season, management practices, soil characteristics and key climate parameters throughout the experimental year. The final dataset contains 4403 paired yield observations between 1980 and 2017 for eight major staple crops in 50 countries. This dataset can help to gain insight into the main drivers explaining the variability of the productivity of NT and the consequence of its adoption on crop yields.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Some Agricultural Crops Distribution and Productivity in Georgia

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (s1) ◽  
pp. 20-26
Author(s):  
Lia Megrelidze ◽  
Nato Kutaladze ◽  
Gizo Gogichaishvili ◽  
Marina Shvangiradze
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Aquacrop Model

Abstract Under the increase of the concern for food security in the world, mainly caused by water resources shortages, the forecast and determination of crop yield at regional scale has been considered as a strategic topic. This study has been conducted to assess the possible impacts of the climate change on cereal crops productivity and irrigation requirement for two main producing regions of Georgia, according to the current crop pattern, and for the 2050s periods. With this aim, water-driven FAO-AquaCrop model has been used. Furthermore, ongoing and forecasted changes, up to the end of the century, in agro-climatic zones relevant for cereals production have been assessed. The climate change data was generated for RCP4.5 scenario through the global circulation model ECHAM4.1, dynamically downscaled on the region via regional climate model (RegCM4.1). Results show overall increase in cereal crop yields, but also enhancement in water shortages even considering optimum management practices under rainfed conditions. Based on the results obtained, recommendations have been developed for adaptation measures to the climate change for the Georgia Agriculture sector.

scholarly journals Impacts of Future Climate Predictions on Second Season Maize in an Agrosystem on a Biome Transition Region in Mato Grosso State

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 335-347 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Carolina da Silva Andrea ◽  
Rivanildo Dallacort ◽  
João Danilo Barbieri ◽  
Rafael Cesar Tieppo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Field Experiments ◽  
Sowing Date ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Mato Grosso ◽  
Sowing Dates ◽  
Negative Impacts

Abstract Climate change promotes variations in climatic elements necessary for crop growth and development, such as temperature and rainfall, potentially impacting yields of staple crops. The objective of this study was to assess future climate projections, derived from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and their impacts on second season maize in a region of Mato Grosso state. Field experiments in the 15/16 season comprising different sowing dates and hybrids maturities in rainfed conditions were used for crop model adjustment and posterior simulation of experiments. Crop simulations comprised historical (1980-2010) and future (2010-2100) time frames combined with local crop management practices. Results showed decreases of 50-89% in grain yields, with the most pessimistic scenarios at the latest sowing date at the end of the century. Decreases in the duration of crop cycle and in the efficiency of water use were observed, indicating the negative impacts of projected higher temperatures and drier conditions in crop development. Results highlight the unfeasibility of practicing late sowing dates in second season for maize in the future, indicating the necessity of adjusting management practices so that the double-cropping production system is possible.

scholarly journals Separating the impacts of heat stress events from rising mean temperatures on winter wheat yield of China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bing Liu ◽  
Dongzheng Zhang ◽  
Huxing Zhang ◽  
Senthold Asseng ◽  
Tingwei Yin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Grain Filling ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Historical Climate ◽  
Negative Impacts

Abstract Warming due to climate change has profound impacts on regional crop yields, and this includes impacts from rising mean growing season temperature and heat stress events. Adapting to these two impacts could be substantially different, and the overall contribution of these two factors on the effects of climate warming and crop yield is not known. This study used the improved WheatGrow model, which can reproduce the effects of temperature change and heat stress, along with detailed information from 19 location-specific cultivars and local agronomic management practices at 129 research stations across the main wheat-producing region of China, to quantify the regional impacts of temperature increase and heat stress separately on wheat in China. Historical climate, plus two future low-warming scenarios (1.5/2.0oC warming above pre-industrial) and one future high-warming scenario (RCP8.5), were applied using the crop model, without considering elevated CO2 effects. The results showed that heat stress and its yield impact were more severe in the cooler northern sub-regions than the warmer southern sub-regions with historical and future warming scenarios. Heat stress was estimated to reduce wheat yield in most of northern sub-regions by 2.0% - 4.0% (up to 29% in extreme years) under the historical climate. Climate warming is projected to increase heat stress events in frequency and extent, especially in northern sub-regions. Surprisingly, higher warming did not result in more yield-impacting heat stress compared to low-warming, due to advanced phenology with mean warming and finally avoiding heat stress events during grain filling in summer. Most negative impacts of climate warming are attributed to increasing mean growing-season temperature, while changes in heat stress are projected to reduce wheat yields by an additional 1.0% to 1.5% in northern sub-regions. Adapting to climate change in China must consider the different regional and temperature impacts to be effective.

scholarly journals Strawberry yield efficiency and its correlation with temperature and solar radiation

2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro Palencia ◽  
Fátima Martínez ◽  
Juan Jesús Medina ◽  
José López-Medina
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Fruit Production ◽  
Limiting Factor ◽  
Cycle Duration ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Total Production ◽  
Crop Cycle ◽  
Early Production ◽  
The Impact

The impact that future climatic conditions will have on agricultural productivity depends on the sensitivity to each environmental factor and relative changes in temperature, precipitation and UV-B radiation. The strawberry (Fragaria x ananassa) is a microclimatic crop cultivated almost worldwide and Spain is the world's second-largest strawberry producer after the USA. Strawberry production in Huelva has been affected by climate change in recent decades. Temperature and solar radiation are primary environmental factors controlling short-day strawberry plant growth and development. Temperature is a limiting factor in crop productivity. We assessed the effect of variations in temperature and solar radiation on strawberry production and crop cycle duration. The study was carried out in commercial strawberry fruit production fields in the province of Huelva (Spain's southwestern coast). Fresh plants of cv. Camarosa were cultivated from October to June. The resulting crop was recorded weekly in the production field: early and total strawberry productions (g/plant), were recorded from January to March and from January to May, respectively. Data revealed that between early production and temperature (R²= 0.86) and between early production and solar radiation (R²= 0.73) there was a linear relationship. However, total production and temperature (R²= 0.69) and total production and solar radiation (R²= 0.69) were related by a quadratic relationship. Our estimates suggest that strawberry production could be affected by climate change. Due to the relationship between yield and temperature, and between yield and solar radiation, climate change scenarios were found to result in reductions in crop cycle duration.

scholarly journals Best Management Practices for Sustaining Agricultural Production at Choctawhatchee Watershed in Alabama, USA, in Response to Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 117862212199178
Author(s):  
Mahnaz Dil Afroz ◽  
Runwei Li ◽  
Khaleel Muhammed ◽  
Aavudai Anandhi ◽  
Gang Chen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Rotation ◽  
Best Management Practices ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Fertilizer Use ◽  
Best Management ◽  
Early Planting ◽  
Loamy Sand Soil

Climate change will ultimately result in higher surface temperature and more variable precipitation, negatively affecting agricultural productivity. To sustain the agricultural production in the face of climate change, adaptive agricultural management or best management practices (BMPs) are needed. The currently practiced BMPs include crop rotation, early planting, conservation tillage, cover crops, effective fertilizer use, and so on. This research investigated the agricultural production of BMPs in response to climate change for a Hydrologic Unit Code12 sub-watershed of Choctawhatchee Watershed in Alabama, USA. The dominating soil type of this region was sandy loam and loamy sand soil. Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator and Cropping Systems Simulation Model were used to estimate the agricultural production. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 that projected a temperature increase of 2.3℃ and 4.7℃ were used as climate scenarios. The research demonstrated that crop rotation had positive response to climate change. With peanuts in the rotation, a production increase of 105% was observed for cotton. There was no consistent impact on crop yields by early planting. With selected peanut-cotton rotations, 50% reduced nitrogen fertilizer use was observed to achieve comparable crop yields. In response to climate change, crop rotation with legume incorporation is thus suggested, which increased crop production and reduced fertilizer use.

scholarly journals Crop yields and supply of nitrogen compared in conventional and organic farming systems

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 317-326 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maarika Alaru ◽  
Liina Talgre ◽  
Viacheslav Eremeev ◽  
Berit Tein ◽  
Anne Luik ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Organic Farming ◽  
Dry Matter ◽  
Field Experiments ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Farming Systems ◽  
Organic N ◽  
Cycle Period ◽  
Organic Fertiliser ◽  
Crop Cycle ◽  
Organic Farming Systems

The aim of organic agriculture is to produce food of high nutritional quality in sufficient quantity. Field experiments were conducted to evaluate the effect of organic and conventional growing systems on (i) total amounts and supply of N taken up or applied to plants during a five year crop cycle period and (ii) crops total dry matter (DM) yield obtained during same period. The total DM yields from the organic treatments were 25–33% smaller than from the conventional treatments. The ratio of N output/N input was significantly the smallest in the organic treatment with cattle manure, where only 37% of all supplied N was used by plants during the crop cycle period. The organic fertiliser with faster mineralisation rate and splitting the application of organic N during crop cycle period would be more appropriate to supply sufficient quantities of N during rapid plant growth and to obtain higher crop yields in organic farming systems. 

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