scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Some Agricultural Crops Distribution and Productivity in Georgia

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (s1) ◽  
pp. 20-26
Author(s):  
Lia Megrelidze ◽  
Nato Kutaladze ◽  
Gizo Gogichaishvili ◽  
Marina Shvangiradze
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Aquacrop Model

Abstract Under the increase of the concern for food security in the world, mainly caused by water resources shortages, the forecast and determination of crop yield at regional scale has been considered as a strategic topic. This study has been conducted to assess the possible impacts of the climate change on cereal crops productivity and irrigation requirement for two main producing regions of Georgia, according to the current crop pattern, and for the 2050s periods. With this aim, water-driven FAO-AquaCrop model has been used. Furthermore, ongoing and forecasted changes, up to the end of the century, in agro-climatic zones relevant for cereals production have been assessed. The climate change data was generated for RCP4.5 scenario through the global circulation model ECHAM4.1, dynamically downscaled on the region via regional climate model (RegCM4.1). Results show overall increase in cereal crop yields, but also enhancement in water shortages even considering optimum management practices under rainfed conditions. Based on the results obtained, recommendations have been developed for adaptation measures to the climate change for the Georgia Agriculture sector.

A statistical framework for evaluating EURO-CORDEX simulations and derived drought characteristics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David J. Peres ◽  
Alfonso Senatore ◽  
Paola Nanni ◽  
Antonino Cancelliere ◽  
Giuseppe Mendicino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Monitoring Networks ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

<p>Regional climate models (RCMs) are commonly used for assessing, at proper spatial resolutions, future impacts of climate change on hydrological events. In this study, we propose a statistical methodological framework to assess the quality of the EURO-CORDEX RCMs concerning their ability to simulate historic observed climate (temperature and precipitation). We specifically focus on the models’ performance in reproducing drought characteristics (duration, accumulated deficit, intensity, and return period) determined by the theory of runs at seasonal and annual timescales, by comparison with high-density and high-quality ground-based observational datasets. In particular, the proposed methodology is applied to the Sicily and Calabria regions (Southern Italy), where long historical precipitation and temperature series were recorded by the ground-based monitoring networks operated by the former Regional Hydrographic Offices. The density of the measurements is considerably greater than observational gridded datasets available at the European level, such as E-OBS or CRU-TS. Results show that among the models based on the combination of the HadGEM2 global circulation model (GCM) with the CLM-Community RCMs are the most skillful in reproducing precipitation and temperature variability as well as drought characteristics. Nevertheless, the ranking of the models may slightly change depending on the specific variable analysed, as well as the temporal and spatial scale of interest. From this point of view, the proposed methodology highlights the skills and weaknesses of the different configurations, aiding on the selection of the most suitable climate model for assessing climate change impacts on drought processes and the underlying variables.</p>

scholarly journals Runoff trends analysis and future projections of hydrological patterns in small forested catchments

2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (No. 4) ◽  
pp. 169-181 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Lamačová ◽  
J. Hruška ◽  
P. Krám ◽  
E. Stuchlík ◽  
A. Farda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Monitoring Network ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Forested Catchments ◽  
Ipcc Sres ◽  
The Impact

The aims of the present study were (i) to evaluate trends in runoff from small forested catchments of the GEOMON (GEOchemical MONitoring) network during the period 1994–2011, and (ii) to estimate the impact of anticipated climate change projected by ALADIN-Climate/CZ regional climate model coupled to ARPEGE-Climate global circulation model and forced with IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario on flow patterns in the periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. There were no general patterns found indicating either significant increases or decreases in runoff on either seasonal or annual levels across the investigated catchments within 1994–2011. Annual runoff is projected to decrease by 15% (2021–2050) and 35% (2071–2100) with a significant decrease in summer months and a slight increase in winter months as a result of expected climate change as simulated by the selected climate model.

scholarly journals 2 °C vs. High Warming: Transitions to Flood-Generating Mechanisms across Canada

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1494
Author(s):  
Bernardo Teufel ◽  
Laxmi Sushama
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
Late 21St Century ◽  
Transient Climate Change ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Change Mitigation

Fluvial flooding in Canada is often snowmelt-driven, thus occurs mostly in spring, and has caused billions of dollars in damage in the past decade alone. In a warmer climate, increasing rainfall and changing snowmelt rates could lead to significant shifts in flood-generating mechanisms. Here, projected changes to flood-generating mechanisms in terms of the relative contribution of snowmelt and rainfall are assessed across Canada, based on an ensemble of transient climate change simulations performed using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. Changes to flood-generating mechanisms are assessed for both a late 21st century, high warming (i.e., Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) scenario, and in a 2 °C global warming context. Under 2 °C of global warming, the relative contribution of snowmelt and rainfall to streamflow peaks is projected to remain close to that of the current climate, despite slightly increased rainfall contribution. In contrast, a high warming scenario leads to widespread increases in rainfall contribution and the emergence of hotspots of change in currently snowmelt-dominated regions across Canada. In addition, several regions in southern Canada would be projected to become rainfall dominated. These contrasting projections highlight the importance of climate change mitigation, as remaining below the 2 °C global warming threshold can avoid large changes over most regions, implying a low likelihood that expensive flood adaptation measures would be necessary.

Impact of climate change on water requirements and growth of potato in different climatic zones of Montenegro

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 657-671 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirko Knežević ◽  
Ljubomir Zivotić ◽  
Nataša Čereković ◽  
Ana Topalović ◽  
Nikola Koković ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Yield Reduction ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Viable Solution ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of climate change on potato cultivation in Montenegro was assessed. Three scenarios (A1B, A1Bs and A2) for 2001–2030, 2071–2100 and 2071–2100, respectively, were generated by a regional climate model and compared with the baseline period 1961–1990. The results indicated an increase of temperature during the summer season from 1.3 to 4.8 °C in the mountain region and from 1 to 3.4 °C in the coastal zone. The precipitation decreased between 5 and 50% depending on the scenario, region and season. The changes in temperature and precipitation influenced phenology, yield and water needs. The impact was more pronounced in the coastal areas than in the mountain regions. The growing season was shortened 13.6, 22.9 and 29.7 days for A1B, A1Bs and A2, respectively. The increase of irrigation requirement was 4.0, 19.5 and 7.3 mm for A1B, A1Bs and A2, respectively. For the baseline conditions, yield reduction under rainfed cultivation was lower than 30%. For A1B, A1Bs and A2 scenarios, yield reductions were 31.0 ± 8.2, 36.3 ± 11.6 and 34.1 ± 10.9%, respectively. Possible adaptation measures include shifting of production to the mountain (colder) areas and irrigation application. Rainfed cultivation remains a viable solution when the anticipation of sowing is adopted.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Long-Term SOC and Crop Productivity within Conservation Systems Using GFDL CM2.1 and EPIC

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 2665 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kieu N. Le ◽  
Manoj K. Jha ◽  
Jaehak Jeong ◽  
Philip W. Gassman ◽  
Manuel R. Reyes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Upland Rice ◽  
Cropping Systems ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Crop Productivity ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Epic Model

Will soil organic carbon (SOC) and yields increase for conservation management systems in tropical zones in response to the next 100 years? To answer the question, the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was used to study the effects of climate change, cropping systems, conservation agriculture (CA) and conservation tillage management practices on SOC and crop productivity in Kampong Cham, Cambodia. The EPIC model was successfully calibrated and validated for crop yields, biomass, SOC and nitrogen based on field data from a five-year field experiment. Historical weather (1994–2013) was used for baseline assessment versus mid-century (2046–2064) and late-century (2081–2100) climate projections generated by the Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) CM2.1 global climate model. The simulated results showed that upland rice yield would increase the most under the B1 scenario in mid-century for all treatments, followed by soybean and maize. Cassava yield only increased under CA treatment when cultivated as a continuous primary crop. Carbon sequestration was more sensitive to cropping systems and crop rotation than climate change. The results indicated that the rotated CA primary crop (maize) systems should be prioritized for SOC sequestration as well as for increasing crop productivity. In addition, rice systems may increase SOC compared to soybean and cassava.

Climate change impacts on European wheat and maize yields

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Toreti ◽  
Andrej Ceglar ◽  
Frank Dentener ◽  
Davide Fumagalli ◽  
Simona Bassu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Precipitation Regimes ◽  
Maize Yields ◽  
Projected Changes

<p>Crop yields are influenced and affected by climate conditions and the occurrence of extreme events in critical phenological phases during the growing season. As projected climate change for Europe points to an increase of climate extremes as well as a significant warming together with changes in precipitation regimes, it is essential to assess impacts on key socio-economic sectors such as agriculture. Here, we analyse European wheat and maize yields as projected by a crop model driven by bias-adjusted Euro-CORDEX regional climate model simulations under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The main findings highlight as maize will be the most affected crop with limited effects of simple adaptation strategies; while a north-south dipole in the projected changes characterizes wheat yields. In the wheat regions negatively affected by climate change, adaptation strategies will play a key role in counterbalancing the impacts of the projected changes. </p>

scholarly journals Future changes in the relationship of precipitation intensity in Eastern Mediterranean with large scale circulation

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 ◽  
pp. 31-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Hatzaki ◽  
H. A. Flocas ◽  
C. Oikonomou ◽  
C. Giannakopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Intensity Index ◽  
Teleconnection Patterns ◽  
European Area ◽  
The Future

Abstract. The objective of this study is to investigate the linkage of large-scale upper air circulation over the greater European area with intense precipitation events over Eastern Mediterranean and then to estimate potential changes in the atmospheric patterns in the future, under global warming conditions. For this purpose, results from the regional climate model HadRM3P and Global Circulation Model HadAM3P have been used for the present period 1960–1990 (control run) and the future period 2070–2100 based on the B2a IPCC emission scenario. For the identification of the precipitation extremes the Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII) was employed. Our analysis has shown a notable relation of extreme events with the East Atlantic and Scandinavia teleconnection patterns, as well as the Eastern Mediterranean Pattern (EMP) during the wet period. In the future, similar patterns are found, with different magnitude and position, following the projected changes in atmospheric circulation over Europe.

scholarly journals New Insights in Regional Climate Change: Coupled Land Albedo Change Estimation in Greenland from 1981 to 2017

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 756
Author(s):  
Fei Peng ◽  
Haoran Zhou ◽  
Gong Chen ◽  
Qi Li ◽  
Yongxing Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
The Past

Land albedo is an essential variable in land surface energy balance and climate change. Within regional land, albedo has been altered in Greenland as ice melts and runoff increases in response to global warming against the period of the pre-industrial revolution. The assessment of spatiotemporal variation in albedo is a prerequisite for accurate prediction of ice sheet loss and future climate change, as well as crucial prior knowledge for improving current climate models. In our study, we employed the satellite data product from the global land surface satellite (GLASS) project to obtain the spatiotemporal variation of albedo from 1981 to 2017 using the non-parameter-based M-K (Mann-Kendall) method. It was found that the albedo generally showed a decreasing trend in the past 37 years (−0.013 ± 0.001 decade−1, p < 0.01); in particular, the albedo showed a significant increasing trend in the middle part of the study area but a decreasing trend in the coastal area. The interannual and seasonal variations of albedo showed strong spatial-temporal heterogeneity. Additionally, based on natural and anthropogenic factors, in order to further reveal the potential effects of spatiotemporal variation of albedo on the regional climate, we coupled climate model data with observed data documented by satellite and adopted a conceptual experiment for detections and attributions analysis. Our results showed that both the greenhouse gas forcing and aerosol forcing induced by anthropogenic activities in the past 37 decades were likely to be the main contributors (46.1%) to the decrease of albedo in Greenland. Here, we indicated that overall, Greenland might exhibit a local warming effect based on our study. Albedo–ice melting feedback is strongly associated with local temperature changes in Greenland. Therefore, this study provides a potential pathway to understanding climate change on a regional scale based on the coupled dataset.

scholarly journals The Role of Forests in Mitigating Climate Change – a Case Study for Europe

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 87-102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Borbála Gálos ◽  
Andreas Hänsler ◽  
Georg Kindermann ◽  
Diana Rechid ◽  
Kevin Sieck ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Cover ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Forest Policy ◽  
Relative Effect ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Precipitation Decrease

Abstract - A regional-scale case study has been carried out to assess the possible climatic benefits of forest cover increase in Europe. For the end of the 21st century (2071-2090) it has been investigated, whether the projected climate change could be reduced assuming potential afforestation of the continent. The magnitude of the biogeophysical effects of enhanced forest cover on temperature and precipitation means and extremes have been analyzed relative to the magnitude of the climate change signal applying the regional climate model REMO. The simulation results indicate that in the largest part of the temperate zone potential afforestation may reduce the projected climate change through cooler and moister conditions, thus could contribute to the mitigation of the projected climate change for the entire summer period. The largest relative effect of forest cover increase can be expected in northern Germany, Poland and Ukraine. Here, the projected precipitation decrease could be fully compensated, the temperature increase could be relieved by up to 0.5 °C, and the probability of extremely warm and dry days could be reduced. Results can help to identify the areas, where forest cover increase could be the most effective from climatic point of view. Thus they can build an important basis of the future adaptation strategies and forest policy.

scholarly journals Projection of Rice and Maize Productions in Northern Thailand under Climate Change Scenario RCP8.5

Agriculture ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 23
Author(s):  
Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen ◽  
Pavinee Chanvichit ◽  
Radshadaporn Janta ◽  
Vanisa Surapipith
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Northern Thailand ◽  
Maize Production ◽  
Production Risk ◽  
Rainfed Rice

Climate change has an effect human living in a variety of ways, such as health and food security. This study presents a prediction of crop yields and production risks during the years 2020–2029 in northern Thailand using the coupling of a 1 km resolution regional climate model, which is downscaled using a conservative remapping method, and the Decision Support System for the Transfer of Agrotechnology (DSSAT) modeling system. The accuracy of the climate and agricultural model was appropriate compared with the observations, with an Index of Agreement (IOA) in the range of 0.65–0.89. The results reveal the negative effects of climate change on rice and maize production in northern Thailand. We show that, in northern Thailand, rainfed rice and maize production may be reduced by 5% for rice and 4% for maize. Moreover, rice and maize production risk analysis showed that maize production is at a high risk of low production, while rice production is at a low risk. Additional irrigation, crop diversification, the selection of appropriate planting dates and methods of conservation are promising adaptation strategies in northern Thailand that may improve crop production.

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