scholarly journals Fine-scale spatial clustering of measles nonvaccination that increases outbreak potential is obscured by aggregated reporting data

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (45) ◽  
pp. 28506-28514
Author(s):  
Nina B. Masters ◽  
Marisa C. Eisenberg ◽  
Paul L. Delamater ◽  
Matthew Kay ◽  
Matthew L. Boulton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
United States ◽  
Spatial Clustering ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
The United States ◽  
The State ◽  
World Health ◽  
Local Immunity ◽  
Vaccination Rates ◽  
The Impact

The United States experienced historically high numbers of measles cases in 2019, despite achieving national measles vaccination rates above the World Health Organization recommendation of 95% coverage with two doses. Since the COVID-19 pandemic began, resulting in suspension of many clinical preventive services, pediatric vaccination rates in the United States have fallen precipitously, dramatically increasing risk of measles resurgence. Previous research has shown that measles outbreaks in high-coverage contexts are driven by spatial clustering of nonvaccination, which decreases local immunity below the herd immunity threshold. However, little is known about how to best conduct surveillance and target interventions to detect and address these high-risk areas, and most vaccination data are reported at the state-level—a resolution too coarse to detect community-level clustering of nonvaccination characteristic of recent outbreaks. In this paper, we perform a series of computational experiments to assess the impact of clustered nonvaccination on outbreak potential and magnitude of bias in predicting disease risk posed by measuring vaccination rates at coarse spatial scales. We find that, when nonvaccination is locally clustered, reporting aggregate data at the state- or county-level can result in substantial underestimates of outbreak risk. The COVID-19 pandemic has shone a bright light on the weaknesses in US infectious disease surveillance and a broader gap in our understanding of how to best use detailed spatial data to interrupt and control infectious disease transmission. Our research clearly outlines that finer-scale vaccination data should be collected to prevent a return to endemic measles transmission in the United States.

scholarly journals Warlords, the United States, and the state of anarchy in Afghanistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Shah Azami
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
State Building ◽  
The State ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Human Rights Abuses ◽  
Illegal Mining ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

As part of its “War on Terror”, the United States (US) provided immense sums of money and advanced equipment to Afghan warlords in order to defeat and dismantle the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. Nearly two decades after the 2001 US-led intervention in Afghanistan that toppled the Taliban regime, the US continues supporting the warlords in various ways. As the intervention was also aimed at establishing a functioning state and reconstruction of the war-torn country, the US needed the support of local warlords to achieve its goals. However, over time, warlords and warlordism became a major challenge to the postTaliban state-building project and in many ways undermined the overall security and the state monopoly on violence. These warlords, who had been mostly expelled and defeated by the Taliban regime, returned under the aegis of the B52 bombers, recaptured parts of the country and reestablished their fiefdoms with US support and resources. They not only resist giving up the power and prestige they have accumulated over the past few years, but also hamper the effort to improve governance and enact necessary reforms in the country. In addition, many of them run their private militias and have been accused of serious human rights abuses as well as drug trafficking, arms smuggling, illegal mining and extortion in the areas under their control or influence. In many ways, they challenge the government authority and have become a major hurdle to the country’s emerging from lawlessness and anarchy. This paper explores the emergence and reemergence of warlords in Afghanistan as well as the evolution of chaos and anarchy in the country, especially after the US-led intervention of late 2001. It also analyzes the impact of the post-9/11 US support to Afghan warlords and its negative consequences for the overall stability and the US-led state-building process in Afghanistan.

scholarly journals A Quantitative Risk Assessment of Human Salmonellosis from Consumption of Walnuts in the United States

2018 ◽  
Vol 82 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
SOFIA M. SANTILLANA FARAKOS ◽  
RÉGIS POUILLOT ◽  
GORDON R. DAVIDSON ◽  
RHOMA JOHNSON ◽  
INSOOK SON ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Rare Event ◽  
The United States ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
World Health ◽  
Baseline Model ◽  
Log Reduction ◽  
Human Salmonellosis ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACT We assessed the risk of human salmonellosis from consumption of shelled walnuts in the United States and the impact of 0- to 5-log reduction treatments for Salmonella during processing. We established a baseline model with Salmonella contamination data from 2010 to 2013 surveys of walnuts from California operations to estimate baseline prevalence and levels of Salmonella during preshelling storage and typical walnut processing stages, considered U.S. consumption data, and applied an adapted dose-response model from the Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Health Organization to evaluate risk of illness per serving and per year. Our baseline model predicted 1 case of salmonellosis per 100 million servings (95% confidence interval [CI], 1 case per 3 million to 1 case per 2 billion servings) of walnuts untreated during processing and uncooked by consumers, resulting in an estimated 6 cases of salmonellosis per year (95% CI, <1 to 278 cases) in the United States. A minimum 3-log reduction treatment for Salmonella during processing of walnuts eaten alone or as an uncooked ingredient resulted in a mean risk of <1 case per year. We modeled the impact on risk per serving of three atypical situations in which the Salmonella levels were increased by 0.5 to 1.5 log CFU per unit pretreatment during processing at the float tank or during preshelling storage or posttreatment during partitioning into consumer packages. No change in risk was associated with the small increase in levels of Salmonella at the float tank, whereas an increase in risk was estimated for each of the other two atypical events. In a fourth scenario, we estimated the risk per serving associated with consumption of walnuts with Salmonella prevalence and levels from a 2014 to 2015 U.S. retail survey. Risk per serving estimates were two orders of magnitude larger than those of the baseline model without treatment. Further research is needed to determine whether this finding reflects variability in Salmonella contamination across the supply or a rare event affecting a portion of the supply.

Cross-National Explorations of the Impact of Affect at Work Using the State-Trait Emotion Measure: A Coordinated Series of Studies in the United States, China, and Romania

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (5) ◽  
pp. 405-442 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward L. Levine ◽  
Xian Xu ◽  
Liu-Qin Yang ◽  
Dan Ispas ◽  
Horia D. Pitariu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
The State ◽  
Affect At Work ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Cross National

Keeping the flu at bay: Methods for detecting and containing infectious disease

2009 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 9
Author(s):  
Atresha Karra, JD ◽  
Emily Cornette, JD
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
United States ◽  
Disease Control ◽  
The United States ◽  
Communicable Diseases ◽  
World Health ◽  
Reporting Requirements ◽  
The World ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Health Organization

This article focuses on the existing methods for tracking and restricting the spread of communicable diseases, both within United States borders and across nations. It will first describe the roles played by the United States’ Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization and will then explore how communicable diseases across the world are identified and monitored. This will be followed by a discussion of US and world reporting requirements and methods. Finally, the article will discuss the tactics used by the United States to control the spread of disease.

scholarly journals Spatial Modeling of COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy in the United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (18) ◽  
pp. 9488
Author(s):  
Abolfazl Mollalo ◽  
Moosa Tatar
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Healthcare Providers ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vaccine Hesitancy ◽  
Social Vulnerability Index ◽  
Vaccination Programs ◽  
Public Health Decision ◽  
Vaccination Rates ◽  
The Impact

Vaccine hesitancy refers to delay in acceptance or refusal of vaccines despite the availability of vaccine services. Despite the efforts of United States healthcare providers to vaccinate the bulk of its population, vaccine hesitancy is still a severe challenge that has led to the resurgence of COVID-19 cases to over 100,000 people during early August 2021. To our knowledge, there are limited nationwide studies that examined the spatial distribution of vaccination rates, mainly based on the social vulnerability index (SVI). In this study, we compiled a database of the percentage of fully vaccinated people at the county scale across the continental United States as of 29 July 2021, along with SVI data as potential significant covariates. We further employed multiscale geographically weighted regression to model spatial nonstationarity of vaccination rates. Our findings indicated that the model could explain over 79% of the variance of vaccination rate based on Per capita income and Minority (%) (with positive impacts), and Age 17 and younger (%), Mobile homes (%), and Uninsured people (%) (with negative effects). However, the impact of each covariate varied for different counties due to using separate optimal bandwidths. This timely study can serve as a geospatial reference to support public health decision-makers in forming region-specific policies in monitoring vaccination programs from a geographic perspective.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF MIGRATION FROM VENEZUELA ON THE DOMESTIC POLITICAL SITUATION IN THE UNITED STATES

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 240-253 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergey Yu Belokonev ◽  
Sergey A Vodopetov ◽  
Vladimir G Ivanov
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
The United States ◽  
The State ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Important Region ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Presidential Election Campaign

The authors analyze the impact of migration from Venezuela on the domestic policy of the United States. According to the data for 2017, more than 11 percent of immigrants to the United States from South America are Venezuelans, and the same figure for 2016 was close to 9 percent, which indicates a fairly sharp increase in the number of refugees. An active influx of Venezuelans may be one of the key factors in the future US 2020 presidential elections. The largest diaspora of Venezuelans in the United States lives in Florida, which will be one of the key states in the future presidential election campaign. In connection with the potential loss of Republican’s positions in such an important region as Florida, it is necessary for the administration of Donald Trump to reconsider its policy in the state. In addition, representatives of the Democratic party are greatly interested in increasing influence in the state. Thus, the authors conclude that the administration of Donald Trump generally benefits from the crisis in Venezuela, as it will help to carry out a number of domestic political reforms aimed at economic protectionism and tackling of immigration.

scholarly journals IMPACT OF COVID 19 ON THE INDIAN STOCK MARKET

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (07) ◽  
pp. 1085-1090
Author(s):  
Harsh Vikram Arora ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
The United States ◽  
World Health ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

The COVID19 pandemic which came unprecedentedly has brought forward a lot of confusion and unrest in the world. There are a lot of changes with regard to the global landscape in multiple ways. SARS-CoV-2 is the primary virus, which is the root contributor to the COVID19 outbreak, which started in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019. It did not take much time to spread across the world. This pandemic has resulted in a universal health crisis, along with a major decline in the global economy. One of the major reasons for the fluctuation in the stock price is supply and demand. When the number of people who want to sell their stocks outnumbers those who want to purchase it, the stock price drops. Due to the result in the gap, the financial markets will suffer in the short duration, but in the long run, markets will correct themselves and would increase again. There is a sharp decline in the stock price because of the pandemic. The current scenario has resulted in a world health crisis which has contributed to global and economic crises. Almost all financial markets across the world have been affected by the recent health crisis, with stock and bond values falling gradually and severely. In the United States, the Dow Jones and S& P 500 indices have fallen by more than 20%. The Shanghai Stock Exchange and the New York Dow Jones Stock Exchange both indicate that they had a significant impact on China’s and the United States’ financial markets. The primary purpose of this paper is to determine the impact of COVID19 on stock markets. The rapid spread of the virus has left a major impact on the global financial markets. There is a link between the pandemic and the stock market, and this has been studied in this paper. Along with it, an attempt is taken to compare stock price returns in pre-COVID19 and post-COVID19 scenarios. The stock market in India faced uncertainty during the pandemic, according to the findings.

scholarly journals Domestic Dynamics of Political Islam in the Greater Middle East

2007 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Amanda Rudman ◽  
Kevin Schoonover ◽  
Arthur Neron-Bancel ◽  
Israel Barriga
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Middle East ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Islam ◽  
The State ◽  
Western World ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Force ◽  
Political Background ◽  
The Impact

These four nations showcase the state of Islamism as a political force in the Middle East. Because of differing political circumstances in each state, the impact and viability of following Muslim law varies. In order to best explain why this is so, we will explore the political background of each nation, as well as discuss the current political climates of the countries in question. Finally, we will postulate as to what type of impact the ascension of an Islamic government will have on relations with the Western world, whether it be European nations, as is the case with Turkey, or the United States, as with Kuwait, Jordan and Egypt. The implications of this possibility are enormous; therefore, we feel that the importance of understanding the region cannot be overstated.

scholarly journals Prison Gangs

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Danilo Freire
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Property Rights ◽  
The United States ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
The State ◽  
Correctional Facilities ◽  
Street Level ◽  
Illicit Markets ◽  
Prison Gangs ◽  
The Impact

Although widely seen as unruly and predatory, prison gangs operate as quasi-governments in many American correctional facilities. Inmate groups enforce property rights, regulate illicit markets, and promote cooperation when the state is unable or unwilling to act. Prison gangs are relatively new to the United States, and are best understood as unintended consequences of recent shifts in inmate demographics and the gradual erosion of the convict code. The impact of prison gangs on street-level criminal activities and directions for further research are also discussed.

Estimating the Value of a Unitization Law for Shale Gas Development

2019 ◽  
Vol 142 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Kleit ◽  
Eakasit Leelachutipong ◽  
John Yilin Wang
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Shale Gas ◽  
The United States ◽  
The State ◽  
Effective Mechanism ◽  
Horizontal Drilling ◽  
Policy Issues ◽  
Property Owners ◽  
Nature Gas ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Horizontal drilling together with hydraulic fracturing has become a very effective mechanism for the extraction of natural gas in several shale plays in the United States. Efficient horizontal drilling, however, generally requires operating in a “unit,” across the property of numerous landowners. If a landowner, however, is unwilling to allow drilling beneath their property, the result can be harmful to both the producing company and other landowners in the unit. To address this problem, most major oil and nature gas states, except for Pennsylvania, have unitization statutes. We examine the impact of such laws by looking at the recent Emersyn matter from the state of Ohio. We estimate that the unitization ordered by the State of Ohio greatly increased the potential recoverable product from the proposed unit. Just as importantly, it more than proportionally increased the profits to the producer and royalty owners. Our results also show that the breakeven production price is very sensitive to whether forced unitization is available to the producer. At least three policy issues arise from this analysis. First, the rationale for unitization is not clear in all circumstances. In the Emersyn matter, the State of Ohio required access to property rights, even though not allowing such access would not have “stranded” any other landowners, and where the party in question was a sophisticated producer, rather than a landowner. Second, there appears to be no guidance for setting reimbursements to property owners who are forced to allow producers access to their property. Third, it is not clear the extent to which the state should take the producers' plans as given, rather than inquire about options to unitization.

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