Climate risk to European fisheries and coastal communities

With the majority of the global human population living in coastal regions, correctly characterizing the climate risk that ocean-dependent communities and businesses are exposed to is key to prioritizing the finite resources available to support adaptation. We apply a climate risk analysis across the European fisheries sector to identify the most at-risk fishing fleets and coastal regions and then link the two analyses together. We employ an approach combining biological traits with physiological metrics to differentiate climate hazards between 556 populations of fish and use these to assess the relative climate risk for 380 fishing fleets and 105 coastal regions in Europe. Countries in southeast Europe as well as the United Kingdom have the highest risks to both fishing fleets and coastal regions overall, while in other countries, the risk-profile is greater at either the fleet level or at the regional level. European fisheries face a diversity of challenges posed by climate change; climate adaptation, therefore, needs to be tailored to each country, region, and fleet’s specific situation. Our analysis supports this process by highlighting where and what adaptation measures might be needed and informing where policy and business responses could have the greatest impact.

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Climate-risk to European fisheries and coastal communities

10.1101/2020.08.03.234401 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Mark R. Payne ◽

Manja Kudahl ◽

Georg H. Engelhard ◽

Myron A. Peck ◽

John K. Pinnegar

Keyword(s):

Climate Adaptation ◽

Coastal Communities ◽

Climate Risk ◽

Specific Situation ◽

Ecological Niche Models ◽

Coastal Regions ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

Fishing Fleets ◽

The Uk ◽

First Time

AbstractWith the majority of the global human population living in coastal regions, identifying the climate risk that ocean-dependent communities and businesses are exposed to is key to prioritising the finite resources available to support adaptation. Here we apply a climate-risk analysis across the European fisheries sector for the first time to identify the most at-risk fleets and sub-national regions. We combine a trait-based approach with ecological niche models to differentiate climate hazards between populations of fish and use them to assess the relative climate risk for 380 fishing fleets and 105 coastal regions in Europe. Countries in SE Europe and the UK have the highest risks to both their fishing fleets and their communities while, in other countries, the risk-profile is greatest at either the fleet or community level. These results reveal the diversity of challenges posed by climate-change to European fisheries: climate adaptation, therefore, needs to be tailored to each country’s and even each region’s specific situation. Our analysis supports this process by highlighting where adaptation measures are needed and could have the greatest impact.

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From vision to action: roadmapping as a strategic method and tool to implement climate change adaptation – the example of the roadmap ‘water sensitive urban design 2020’

Water Science & Technology ◽

10.2166/wst.2016.065 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 73 (9) ◽

pp. 2251-2259 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

J. U. Hasse ◽

D. E. Weingaertner

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Urban Design ◽

Climate Change Adaptation ◽

Climate Adaptation ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

Support Tool ◽

Process Support ◽

Development Processes ◽

Water Sensitive Urban Design

As the central product of the BMBF-KLIMZUG-funded Joint Network and Research Project (JNRP) ‘dynaklim – Dynamic adaptation of regional planning and development processes to the effects of climate change in the Emscher-Lippe region (North Rhine Westphalia, Germany)’, the Roadmap 2020 ‘Regional Climate Adaptation’ has been developed by the various regional stakeholders and institutions containing specific regional scenarios, strategies and adaptation measures applicable throughout the region. This paper presents the method, elements and main results of this regional roadmap process by using the example of the thematic sub-roadmap ‘Water Sensitive Urban Design 2020’. With a focus on the process support tool ‘KlimaFLEX’, one of the main adaptation measures of the WSUD 2020 roadmap, typical challenges for integrated climate change adaptation like scattered knowledge, knowledge gaps and divided responsibilities but also potential solutions and promising chances for urban development and urban water management are discussed. With the roadmap and the related tool, the relevant stakeholders of the Emscher-Lippe region have jointly developed important prerequisites to integrate their knowledge, to clarify vulnerabilities, adaptation goals, responsibilities and interests, and to foresightedly coordinate measures, resources, priorities and schedules for an efficient joint urban planning, well-grounded decision-making in times of continued uncertainties and step-by-step implementation of adaptation measures from now on.

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A Framework for Identification, Assessment and Prioritization of Climate Change Adaptation Measures for Roads and Railways

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph182312314 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (23) ◽

pp. 12314

Author(s):

Yvonne Andersson-Sköld ◽

Lina Nordin ◽

Erik Nyberg ◽

Mikael Johannesson

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Risk Reduction ◽

Climate Adaptation ◽

Preventive Measures ◽

Hazard Identification ◽

Sensitivity Analyses ◽

Costs And Benefits ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

Severe Accidents ◽

Risk Reduction Measures

Severe accidents and high costs associated with weather-related events already occur in today’s climate. Unless preventive measures are taken, the costs are expected to increase in future due to ongoing climate change. However, the risk reduction measures are costly as well and may result in unwanted impacts. Therefore, it is important to identify, assess and prioritize which measures are necessary to undertake, as well as where and when these are to be undertaken. To be able to make such evaluations, robust (scientifically based), transparent and systematic assessments and valuations are required. This article describes a framework to assess the cause-and-effect relationships and how to estimate the costs and benefits as a basis to assess and prioritize measures for climate adaptation of roads and railways. The framework includes hazard identification, risk analysis and risk assessment, identification, monetary and non-monetary evaluation of possible risk reduction measures and a step regarding distribution-, goal- and sensitivity analyses. The results from applying the framework shall be used to prioritize among potential risk reduction measures as well as when to undertake them.

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Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for natural risk and adaptation appraisal modeling with CLIMADA

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1773 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Chahan M. Kropf ◽

Alessio Ciullo ◽

Simona Meiler ◽

Laura Otth ◽

Jamie W. McCaughey ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sensitivity Analysis ◽

Green Infrastructure ◽

Climate Adaptation ◽

Damage Model ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

Natural Risk ◽

Impact Function ◽

Uncertainty And Sensitivity Analysis ◽

Global Uncertainty ◽

The Impact

Modelling societal, ecological, and economic costs of natural hazards in the context of climate change is subject to both strong aleatoric and ethical uncertainty. Dealing with these is challenging on several levels &#8211; from the identification and the quantification of the sources of uncertainty to their proper inclusion in the modelling, and the communication of these in a tangible way to both experts and non-experts. One particularly useful approach is global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, which can help to quantify the confidence in the output values and identify the main drivers of the uncertainty while considering potential correlations in the model. Here we present applications of global uncertainty analysis, robustness quantification, and sensitivity analysis in natural hazard modelling using the new uncertainty module of the CLIMADA (CLIMate ADAptation) platform.CLIMADA is a fully open-source Python program that implements a probabilistic multi-hazard global natural catastrophe damage model, which also calculates averted damage (benefit) thanks to adaptation measures of any kind (from grey to green infrastructure, behavioral, etc.). With the new uncertainty module, one can directly and comprehensively inspect the uncertainty and sensitivity to input variables of various output metrics, such as the spatial distribution of risk exceedance probabilities, or the benefit-cost ratios of different adaptation measures. This global approach does reveal interesting parameter interplays and might provide valuable input for decision-makers. For instance, a study of the geospatial distribution of sensitivity indices for tropical cyclones damage indicated that the main driver of uncertainty in dense regions (e.g. cities) is the impact function (vulnerability), whereas in sparse regions it is the exposure (asset) layer.&#160;CLIMADA: https://github.com/CLIMADA-project/climada_python&#160;(1) Aznar-Siguan, G. et al., GEOSCI MODEL DEV. 12, 7 (2019) 3085&#8211;97 (2) Bresch, D. N. and Aznar-Siguan., G., &#160;GEOSCI MODEL DEV. (2020), 1&#8211;20.

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Supporting Climate Adaptation Measures in Small- to Medium-Sized Austrian Cities Using Climate Modelling

10.1007/978-3-030-65181-7_32 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 405-413

Author(s):

Sandro M. Oswald ◽

Brigitta Hollosi ◽

Maja Žuvela-Aloise ◽

Linda See ◽

Stefan Guggenberger ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Adaptation ◽

Climate Modelling ◽

Adaptation Measures

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A Generalized Framework for Assessing Flood Risk and Suitable Strategies under Various Vulnerability and Adaptation Scenarios: A Case Study for Residents of Kyoto City in Japan

Water ◽

10.3390/w12092508 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (9) ◽

pp. 2508

Author(s):

Bing-Chen Jhong ◽

Yasuto Tachikawa ◽

Tomohiro Tanaka ◽

Parmeshwar Udmale ◽

Ching-Pin Tung

Keyword(s):

Flood Risk ◽

Planning Process ◽

Climate Adaptation ◽

Adaptation Strategies ◽

Climate Risk ◽

Detention Ponds ◽

Kyoto City ◽

Generalized Framework ◽

Risk Maps ◽

Adaptation Scenarios

This study proposes a generalized framework for the assessment of flood risk and potential strategies to mitigate flood under various vulnerability and adaptation scenarios. The possible causes of hazard, exposure and vulnerability in flood disaster were clearly identified by using a climate risk template. Then, levels of exposure and vulnerability with adaptive capacity and sensitivity were further defined by a quantification approach, and the climate risk maps were consequently provided. The potential possible climate adaptation strategies were investigated through the comparison of climate risk maps with diverse adaptation options. The framework was demonstrated in the Kyoto City in Japan with residents as a target population to reduce the flood risk. The results indicate that the government should pay attention to reducing the population in flood-prone areas and adopt diverse adaptation strategies to reduce the flood risk to the residents. Rainwater storage and green roofs as adaptation strategies as short-term planning options are recommended. The construction of detention ponds has been suggested to prevent flood risks in future as a part of the long-term planning process. In conclusion, the proposed framework is expected to be a suitable tool for supporting climate risk analysis in the context of flood disasters.

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Methodology to Prioritize Climate Adaptation Measures in Urban Areas. Barcelona and Bristol Case Studies

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su12124807 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (12) ◽

pp. 4807 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

María Guerrero-Hidalga ◽

Eduardo Martínez-Gomariz ◽

Barry Evans ◽

James Webber ◽

Montserrat Termes-Rifé ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Case Studies ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Climate Adaptation ◽

Extreme Rainfall ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Urban Resilience ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

Welfare Impacts ◽

Depth Analysis ◽

Detailed Assessment

In the current context of fast innovation in the field of urban resilience against extreme weather events, it is becoming more challenging for decision-makers to recognize the most beneficial adaptation measures for their cities. Detailed assessment of multiple measures is resource-consuming and requires specific expertise, which is not always available. To tackle these issues, in the context of the H2020 project RESCCUE (RESilience to cope with Climate Change in Urban arEas), a methodology to effectively prioritize adaptation measures against extreme rainfall-related hazards in urban areas has been developed. It follows a multi-phase structure to progressively narrow down the list of potential measures. It begins using less resource-intensive techniques, to finally focus on the in-depth analysis on a narrower selection of measures. It involves evaluation of risks, costs, and welfare impacts, with strong focus on stakeholders’ participation through the entire process. The methodology is adaptable to different contexts and objectives and has been tested in two case studies across Europe, namely Barcelona and Bristol.

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The motley drivers of heat and cold exposure in 21st century US cities

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ◽

10.1073/pnas.2005492117 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 117 (35) ◽

pp. 21108-21117 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Ashley Mark Broadbent ◽

Eric Scott Krayenhoff ◽

Matei Georgescu

Keyword(s):

Los Angeles ◽

21St Century ◽

Cold Exposure ◽

Climate Adaptation ◽

Urban Climate ◽

Heat Exposure ◽

Ghg Emissions ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

Relative Significance ◽

Metropolitan Regions

We use a suite of decadal-length regional climate simulations to quantify potential changes in population-weighted heat and cold exposure in 47 US metropolitan regions during the 21st century. Our results show that population-weighted exposure to locally defined extreme heat (i.e., “population heat exposure”) would increase by a factor of 12.7–29.5 under a high-intensity greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and urban development pathway. Additionally, end-of-century population cold exposure is projected to rise by a factor of 1.3–2.2, relative to start-of-century population cold exposure. We identify specific metropolitan regions in which population heat exposure would increase most markedly and characterize the relative significance of various drivers responsible for this increase. The largest absolute changes in population heat exposure during the 21st century are projected to occur in major US metropolitan regions like New York City (NY), Los Angeles (CA), Atlanta (GA), and Washington DC. The largest relative changes in population heat exposure (i.e., changes relative to start-of-century) are projected to occur in rapidly growing cities across the US Sunbelt, for example Orlando (FL), Austin (TX), Miami (FL), and Atlanta. The surge in population heat exposure across the Sunbelt is driven by concurrent GHG-induced warming and population growth which, in tandem, could strongly compound population heat exposure. Our simulations provide initial guidance to inform the prioritization of urban climate adaptation measures and policy.

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Climate Change Adaptation Measures for Buildings—A Scoping Review

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su12051721 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (5) ◽

pp. 1721 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Anna Eknes Stagrum ◽

Erlend Andenæs ◽

Tore Kvande ◽

Jardar Lohne

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Built Environment ◽

Climate Adaptation ◽

Empirical Studies ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Successful Operation ◽

Scientific Publications ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

General Studies

As the climate changes globally and locally, the built environment will be subject to different climatic exposure than in the past. Adaptation measures are required to ensure the long-term integrity and successful operation of the built environment. This study examines literature on climate adaptation measures for buildings through a scoping literature review. It is centered around the main journals in the field of climate adaptation of the built environment, then expanded to map the extent of scientific publications about climate adaptation in general. Studies that regard future climate scenarios have been of particular interest. The majority of the identified literature concerns climate change impacts on buildings in warm climates, with overheating being seen as the greatest challenge. Additionally, few empirical studies are found; most identified research is based on computer simulations or literature reviews. The volume of research on the consequences of climate change on buildings in cold regions is surprisingly small, considering the pecuniary stakes involved. The predictions of climate scenarios suggest regulatory/policy measures on climate adaptation should be taken as quickly as possible to avoid greater costs in the future. However, further research into future scenarios is also essential.

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Vulnerability Visualization to Support Adaptation to Heat and Floods: Towards the EXTRA Interactive Tool in Norrköping, Sweden

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su12031179 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (3) ◽

pp. 1179

Author(s):

Tomasz Opach ◽

Erik Glaas ◽

Mattias Hjerpe ◽

Carlo Navarra

Keyword(s):

Primary Schools ◽

Climate Adaptation ◽

Residential Buildings ◽

Strategic Decisions ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

Governance Capacity ◽

Local Climate ◽

Climate Risks ◽

Digital Environments ◽

Adaptation Action

Municipal actors are increasingly expected to consider climate adaptation in operative and strategic work. Here, digital environments can support strategic decisions and planning through visual representations of local climate risks and vulnerabilities. This study targets visualization of vulnerability to heat and floods as a means of supporting adaptation action in preschools, primary schools, caring units, and municipal residential buildings in Norrköping, Sweden. Workshops with sector leaders identified vulnerability indicators used as a basis for collecting, calculating and representing self-assessed vulnerability of individual units and buildings. Informed by user inputs, a map-based interactive visual tool representing resulting vulnerability scores and risk maps was developed to support (1) planners and sector leaders in strategic prioritization and investments, and (2) unit heads in identifying adaptation measures to reduce local flood and heat risks. The tool was tested with adaptation coordinators from targeted sectors. The study finds that the tool made it possible to overview climate risks and adaptation measures, which arguably increases general governance capacity Allowing yearly updates of set scores, the tool was also found to be useful for monitoring how vulnerability in the municipality evolves over time, and for evaluating how adaptive efforts influence calculated risks.

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