Causal judgement from contingency information: Judging interactions between two causal candidates

2002 ◽  
Vol 55 (3) ◽  
pp. 819-838 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter A. White
Keyword(s):  
General Model ◽  
The Other ◽  
Occurrence Rate ◽  
Causal Judgement ◽  
Interaction Interpretation ◽  
Objective Contingency

In two experiments participants judged the extent to which occurrences and non-occurrences of an effect could be attributed to an interaction between two causal candidates A and B. In Experiment 1 judgements were influenced by the proportion of instances normatively evaluated as confirmatory for the interaction interpretation, when the objective contingency was held constant. Information about instances in which both candidates were present and the effect occurred was more influential than information about instances in which both candidates were absent and the effect did not occur. In Experiment 2 the occurrence rate of the effect when both candidates were present, when A alone was present, when B alone was present, and when both were absent was manipulated. Interaction judgements were mainly determined by occurrence rate when both were present. There was also a significant effect of occurrence rate when both were absent, but the other two occurrence rates had no significant effect. These results are interpreted as supporting a general model in which causal judgements are made according to the proportion of instances evaluated as supporting the interpretation being judged.

Causal Judgement as Evaluation of Evidence: The use of Confirmatory and Disconfirmatory Information

2003 ◽  
Vol 56 (3) ◽  
pp. 491-513 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter A. White
Keyword(s):  
Evaluation Model ◽  
The Other ◽  
Presence And Absence ◽  
Extra Weight ◽  
Evaluation Of Evidence ◽  
Stimulus Materials ◽  
Causal Judgement ◽  
Zero Frequency ◽  
Objective Contingency

There are four kinds of contingency information: occurrences and nonoccurrences of an effect in the presence and absence of a cause. In two experiments participants made judgements about sets of stimulus materials in which one of these four kinds had zero frequency. The experiments tested two kinds of predictions derived from the evidential evaluation model of causal judgement, which postulates that causal judgement depends on the proportion of instances evaluated as confirmatory for the cause being judged. The model predicts significant effects of manipulating the frequency of one kind of contingency information in the absence of changes in the objective contingency. The model also predicts that extra weight will be given to one kind of confirmatory information when the other kind has zero frequency, and to one kind of disconfirmatory information when the other kind has zero frequency. Results supported both sets of predictions, and also disconfirmed predictions of the power probabilistic contrast theory of causal judgement. This research therefore favours an account of causal judgement in which contingency information is transformed into evidence, and judgement is based on the net confirmatory or disconfirmatory value of the evidence.

scholarly journals La tarification douanière dans un optimum de compromis

2009 ◽  
Vol 52 (4) ◽  
pp. 421-431
Author(s):  
Camille Bronsard ◽  
F. Kalala Kabuya
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
General Model ◽  
Trade Unions ◽  
Modern Society ◽  
The Other ◽  
Monopoly Power ◽  
General Context ◽  
Transactions Costs ◽  
Optimal Tariffs

Abstract The purpose of this paper is to integrate into a general model of an open economy the study of optimal wedges on domestic and foreign transactions. While it has been customary in the literature to link the analysis of domestic taxes to the provision of public goods, the model presented here views the imposition of taxes and tariffs in the general context of internal and external monopolies. As such, the paper begins with the idea of a compromised optimality. This means essentially that a modern society, while maximizing the welfare of its members, is constrained by other internal objectives such as the fact that the State shares its monopoly power with several other economic entities (for instance employers' federations, trade-unions). Thus, the mere fact of levying taxes gives a State some monopoly power which, in a sense, is similar to that of a Cournot-type monopolist who "imposes" private taxes. On the other hand, given the possibility that a country with some monopoly power in international trade could improve its situation by imposing tariffs, the analysis lends itself to the study of tariffs and taxes in the broad context of optimal wedges. To allow for this characterization, the paper incorporates into the model of normalization. As a by-product of this, a) it establishes, in terms of generalized inverses of the Slutsky matrix, a link between domestic marginal relative revenues and foreign ones; b) it defines two concepts of optimal tariffs evaluated from f.o.b. prices and c.i.f. prices; c) it suggests some further extensions such as the analysis of transactions costs, the incorporation of market retaliations and cultural characteristics of goods.

The Effect of Proposal Appearance on the Technical Evaluation Scoring of Government Proposals

1977 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 285-293 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert D. Dycus
Keyword(s):  
Factorial Design ◽  
Real World ◽  
General Model ◽  
The Other ◽  
Design Experiment ◽  
Transparent Plastic ◽  
Real World Applications ◽  
Color Printing ◽  
Technical Evaluation ◽  
Factorial Design Experiment

The effect of proposal appearance on technical evaluation scoring was examined experimentally. Two mock proposals were prepared—one from the A Corporation and the other from the B Corporation. Each proposal was prepared in two versions—a “nice” appearing version (stylized “logoed” pages, offset two-color printing, heavy paper stock, plastic 19-ring spiral binding), and a “poor” appearing version (single-spaced typed pages, xerox reproduction, cheap transparent plastic cover, staple binding.) The proposals were scored against a set of eight evaluation questions by twenty-eight experienced government evaluators in a 2 × 2 factorial design experiment. No statistically significant effects of appearance on evaluation scoring were detected. A general model is presented that describes impression in terms of proposal appearance versus proposal thought content. The experiment is interpreted in terms of this model, and “real-world” applications of the model are discussed.

scholarly journals Wastewater Discharge and Reuse Regulation in Costa Rica: An Opportunity for Improvement

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (19) ◽  
pp. 2631
Author(s):  
Jorge Herrera-Murillo ◽  
Diana Mora-Campos ◽  
Pablo Salas-Jimenez ◽  
María Hidalgo-Gutierrez ◽  
Tomás Soto-Murillo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Risk ◽  
National Level ◽  
Physicochemical Analysis ◽  
The Other ◽  
Occurrence Rate ◽  
Wastewater Discharge ◽  
Comprehensive Management ◽  
Pig Farming ◽  
Alternative Scenarios ◽  
Acyclic Directed Graph

A database was built with the results of the physicochemical analysis of 23,435 samples of wastewater discharges obtained from the operational reports presented and the cross-checks carried out by the Ministry of Health to the operating entities, in accordance with the provisions of Decree 30661-MINAE-S, for the period 2016–2020. Using Bayesian networks, the probabilities of compliance with current regulations were estimated by preparing an acyclic directed graph for three alternative scenarios. At the national level, the BOD and the COD are the variables that record the lowest values, showing important differences between the results obtained for the central region of the country with respect to the other regions. Another determining variable turned out to be the type of final disposal, wherein the reuse of wastewater presents important compliance deficiencies for all regions except for Chorotega. In the case of BOD, COD and TSS, the lowest probabilities are recorded for ISIC codes 3821 (treatment of non-hazardous waste), 1040 (manufacture of animal and vegetable fats) and 145 (pig farming). Additionally, the integrated environmental risk was calculated as a product of the discharges, obtaining that for the evaluated parameters, the BOD and COD represent the highest risk values given their probability of occurrence rate, as well as the magnitude of the environmental impact. The Pacifico Central and Brunca regions recorded the highest integrated environmental risk value for BOD, COD and TSS compared to the other areas of the country. Based on the results obtained, proposals for improvement were generated for the control of wastewater discharges carried out by the environmental authorities in search of achieving a better comprehensive management of the water resource.

scholarly journals Impact of treatment with anti-parasitic (Ivermectin) during prepartum period on mastitis and postpartum reproductive efficiency measurements in Egyptian Baladi cows

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Ismail Damarany
Keyword(s):  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Reproductive Performance ◽  
The Other ◽  
Occurrence Rate ◽  
Reproductive Efficiency ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Current Investigation ◽  
Live Body Weight ◽  
Effect Of Treatment ◽  
Incident Rate

Abstract The current investigation was designed to determine the effect of treatment with anti-parasites (Ivermectin) on mastitis and postpartum reproductive efficiency measurements in Egyptian Baladi cows. Twenty-four of the cows included in this study were split into two groups. The first group (n = 12 cows) was injected two months prepartum with two doses (15 days inter-treatment) of IVOMEC® Plus solution subcutaneously behind the shoulder, 1ml/50kg live body weight as prescribed by the manufacturer, whilst the other group (n = 12 cows) was used as a control group. The present results revealed that the incident rate of mastitis in treated cows’ group was significantly (P < 0.05) lower (16.7%) than control cows’ group (41.7%). The conception rate in treated cows’ group was significantly (P < 0.05) higher (66.7%) compared with (33.3%) in control group. The time from calving to conception in treated cows was significantly (P < 0.05) lower 86.5 ± 11.4 days compared to 123.3 ± 13.2 days in the control group. The occurrence rate of anestrous cases was significantly (P < 0.05) lower (8.3%) in treated cows than (control group) (25%). In conclusion, the current study indicates there is an association between treated cows with anti-parasites (Ivermectin) two months prepartum and incidence rate of mastitis addition an improvement in the reproductive performance in treated cows relative to untreated cows. Therefore, the current study recommends the herdsmen treats their cows with anti-parasites (Ivermectin) during the prepartum period for less mastitis incidence rate and better reproductive efficiency.

General Model for Data Warehouses

2011 ◽  
pp. 523-528
Author(s):  
Michel Schneider
Keyword(s):  
Data Warehouse ◽  
General Model ◽  
Mineral Water ◽  
Product Type ◽  
The Other ◽  
Aggregation Function ◽  
Data Warehouses ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
One Year ◽  
Aggregation Operations

Basically, the schema of a data warehouse lies on two kinds of elements: facts and dimensions. Facts are used to memorize measures about situations or events. Dimensions are used to analyse these measures, particularly through aggregation operations (counting, summation, average, etc.). To fix the ideas let us consider the analysis of the sales in a shop according to the product type and to the month in the year. Each sale of a product is a fact. One can characterize it by a quantity. One can calculate an aggregation function on the quantities of several facts. For example, one can make the sum of quantities sold for the product type “mineral water” during January in 2001, 2002 and 2003. Product type is a criterion of the dimension Product. Month and Year are criteria of the dimension Time. A quantity is so connected both with a type of product and with a month of one year. This type of connection concerns the organization of facts with regard to dimensions. On the other hand a month is connected to one year. This type of connection concerns the organization of criteria within a dimension. The possibilities of fact analysis depend on these two forms of connection and on the schema of the warehouse. This schema is chosen by the designer in accordance with the users needs.

BEHAVIORAL DYNAMICS OF TWO INTERACTING HAWK–DOVE POPULATIONS

2001 ◽  
Vol 11 (04) ◽  
pp. 645-661 ◽  
Author(s):  
PIERRE AUGER ◽  
RAFAEL BRAVO DE LA PARRA ◽  
EVA SÁNCHEZ
Keyword(s):  
General Model ◽  
The Other ◽  
Phase Portraits ◽  
Behavioral Dynamics ◽  
Interacting Populations ◽  
Different Populations ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Individual Strategies ◽  
Parameter Values ◽  
Two Populations

We present a model of two interacting populations using two individual strategies, hawk and dove. Individuals encounter each other frequently and can change tactics several times in their life. Conflicts occur between individuals belonging to the same population and to different populations. The general model is based on the replicator equations which are used to describe the variations of the hawk proportions of the two populations. According to parameter values, namely the gain-, the intra- and inter-population costs, and the relative intra-population encounter rates, we classify the different phase portraits. We show that a decrease in the intra-population cost of a population provokes an increase in the hawk proportion in this population and of the dove proportion in the other population. An increase in the inter-population cost favors hawk strategy in the population which causes more injuries and dove strategy in the other. We also study the effects of the relative densities of the two populations on the stability of equilibria. In most cases, an increase in the relative density of a population leads to a decrease in hawk proportion in this population and of dove proportion in the other.

scholarly journals VARIATION OF SPONTANEOUS OCCURRENCE RATES OF CHROMOSOMAL ABERRATIONS IN THE SECOND CHROMOSOMES OF DROSOPHILA MELANOGASTER

Genetics ◽  
1974 ◽  
Vol 78 (4) ◽  
pp. 1209-1221
Author(s):  
Osamu Yamaguchi ◽  
Terumi Mukai
Keyword(s):  
Drosophila Melanogaster ◽  
Salivary Gland ◽  
Structural Change ◽  
Random Distribution ◽  
The Other ◽  
Occurrence Rate ◽  
The Third ◽  
Pericentric Inversions ◽  
Paracentric Inversions ◽  
Spontaneous Occurrence

ABSTRACT After accumulating mutations by the aid of marked inversions, spontaneous occurrence rates of chromosome aberrations were estimated for 1148 chromosome lines that originated from five stem line second chromosomes of Drosophila melanogaster. In chromosome lines originating from three stem chromosomes (CH, PQ, and RT), mutations were accumulated for 7550, 7252, and 7256 chromosome generations, respectively, but no structural change was detected. For the chromosome lines that originated from the other two stem chromosomes, the situation was different: Twenty aberrations (19 paracentric inversions and 1 translocation between the second and the third chromosomes) during 45990 chromosome generations took place in the 500 chromosome lines derived from stem line chromosome (AW), and 92 aberrations (83 paracentric inversions, 6 pericentric inversions, 2 translocations between the second and the third chromosomes and 1 transposition) arose during 45006 chromosome generations in the 500 chromosome lines derived from stem line chromosome (JH). For the AW group the occurrence rate becomes 0.00043 per chromosome per generation for all aberrations and 0.00041 for inversions. For the JH group the corresponding rates are 0.00204 and 0.00198, respectively.—A non-random distribution of the breakpoint on the salivary gland chromosome was observed and the breakpoints were concentrated in the regions 26, 29, 33, and 34.—The cytoplasms and the chromosomes (other than the second chromosomes) were made approximately uniform throughout the experiments. Thus, this remarkable variability in the occurrence rate is most probably due to the differences in one or more chromosomal elements on the original five stem chromosomes. The mutable chromosomes (AW and JH) appear to carry a kind of mutator factor such as hi (Ives 1950).

scholarly journals Modelling perceived syncopation in popular music drum patterns

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 205920431879146
Author(s):  
Florian Hoesl ◽  
Olivier Senn
Keyword(s):  
Popular Music ◽  
Linear Relationship ◽  
General Model ◽  
Limited Range ◽  
The Other ◽  
Reliable Measure ◽  
Professional Musicians ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
Listening Experiment ◽  
Logarithmic Functions

Recent studies suggest that rhythmic syncopation is a relevant predictor for groove. In order to validate these claims, a reliable measure of rhythmic syncopation is required. This article investigates whether a particular notation-based model for estimating syncopation in Western popular music drum patterns adequately predicts perceived syncopation. A listening experiment was carried out with 25 professional musicians. Six popular music drum patterns were presented to the participants in all 15 pairwise combinations, and the participants chose the pattern from each pair that was more syncopated (win), compared to the other pattern (lose). Perceived syncopation was defined as the proportion of wins for each stimulus. The experiment showed that the model works well in general, but that it overemphasises the weight of syncopes on weak metric positions. This exaggerates the syncopation value of one particular drum pattern and generally leads to inflated syncopation values in the upper syncopation range. In consequence, the fit between the model and perceived syncopation was poor, even when flexible logarithmic functions [Formula: see text], p < .001) or exponential approach functions ([Formula: see text], p < .001) were used to link the model predictions to perceived syncopation. The model was revised and a numeric optimisation process was carried out to improve its fit. The revised model produces syncopation estimates that have a linear relationship with the perceived syncopation measures and a good fit with the data ([Formula: see text], p = .469). However, this revised model is based on only six drum patterns that cover a very limited range of rhythmic phenomena. In order to create a general model of syncopation in popular music drum patterns, further modelling work is necessary that involves a larger number and a wider variety of patterns.

scholarly journals Unusual migration of the prominence activities in recent solar cycles

2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (S300) ◽  
pp. 161-167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masumi Shimojo
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Field ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Radial Velocity ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Solar Maximum ◽  
The Other ◽  
Occurrence Rate ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Global Magnetic Field ◽  
Cycle 24

AbstractWe investigated the prominence eruptions and disappearances observed with the Nobeyama Radioheliograph during over 20 years for studying the anomaly of the recent solar cycle. Although the sunspot number of Cycle 24 is smaller than the previous one dramatically, the occurrence rate, size and radial velocity of the prominence activities are not changed significantly. We also found that the occurrence of the prominence activities in the northern hemisphere is normal from the duration of the cycle and the migration of the producing region of the prominence activities. On the other hand, the migration in the southern hemisphere significantly differs from that in the northern hemisphere and the previous cycles. Our results suggest that the anomalies of the global magnetic field distribution started at the solar maximum of Cycle 23.

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