Estimating IBNR claim counts using different levels of data aggregation

Author(s):  
Liivika Tee ◽  
Meelis Käärik
Author(s):  
Bernhard Petersch ◽  
Kai Dierkes

AbstractPupillometry - the study of temporal changes in pupil diameter as a function of external light stimuli or cognitive processing - requires the accurate and gaze-angle independent measurement of pupil dilation. Expected response amplitudes often are only a few percent relative to a pre-stimulus baseline, thus demanding for sub-millimeter accuracy. Video-based approaches to pupil-size measurement aim at inferring pupil dilation from eye images alone. Eyeball rotation in relation to the recording camera as well as optical effects due to refraction at corneal interfaces can, however, induce so-called pupil foreshortening errors (PFE), i.e. systematic gaze-angle dependent changes of apparent pupil size that are on a par with typical response amplitudes. While PFE and options for its correction have been discussed for remote eye trackers, for head-mounted eye trackers such an assessment is still lacking. In this work, we therefore gauge the extent of PFE in three measurement techniques, all based on eye images recorded with a single near-eye camera. We present both real world experimental data as well as results obtained on synthetically generated eye images. We discuss PFE effects at three different levels of data aggregation: the sample, subject, and population level. In particular, we show that a recently proposed refraction-aware approach employing a mathematical 3D eye model is successful in providing pupil-size measurements which are gaze-angle independent at the population level.


Author(s):  
Julia Sánchez-García ◽  
Ana Isabel Gil-Lacruz ◽  
Marta Gil-Lacruz

AbstractThis research analyzes how gender equality influences the participation of European senior citizens in a range of volunteering activities (Social Awareness, Professional and Political, Education, and Religion). The main contribution is the simultaneous consideration of different levels of data aggregation: individual, national and welfare system. This allows conclusions to be drawn on the effects of variables linked to sociodemographic characteristics, gender equality and welfare systems. The empirical estimation utilised microdata from the World Values Survey (2005/09 and 2010/14) and the United Nations Development Programme. Results suggest that the European senior citizens appear to believe that they are more equal than the official statistics of their countries indicate. Men are more likely to participate in professional and education activities; women are more likely to be involved in religious organisations. Welfare systems influence volunteering behaviours. The promotion of macro-policies for gender equality could be important for increasing participation in non-profit organisations.


Author(s):  
J. E. Doherty ◽  
A. F. Giamei ◽  
B. H. Kear ◽  
C. W. Steinke

Recently we have been investigating a class of nickel-base superalloys which possess substantial room temperature ductility. This improvement in ductility is directly related to improvements in grain boundary strength due to increased boundary cohesion through control of detrimental impurities and improved boundary shear strength by controlled grain boundary micros true tures.For these investigations an experimental nickel-base superalloy was doped with different levels of sulphur impurity. The micros tructure after a heat treatment of 1360°C for 2 hr, 1200°C for 16 hr consists of coherent precipitates of γ’ Ni3(Al,X) in a nickel solid solution matrix.


Author(s):  
M. Kraemer ◽  
J. Foucrier ◽  
J. Vassy ◽  
M.T. Chalumeau

Some authors using immunofluorescent techniques had already suggested that some hepatocytes are able to synthetize several plasma proteins. In vitro studies on normal cells or on cells issued of murine hepatomas raise the same conclusion. These works could be indications of an hepatocyte functionnal non-specialization, meanwhile the authors never give direct topographic proofs suitable with this hypothesis.The use of immunoenzymatic techniques after obtention of monospecific antisera had seemed to us useful to bring forward a better knowledge of this problem. We have studied three carrier proteins (transferrin = Tf, hemopexin = Hx, albumin = Alb) operating at different levels in iron metabolism by demonstrating and localizing the adult rat hepatocytes involved in their synthesis.Immunological, histological and ultrastructural methods have been described in a previous work.


2006 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 304-311 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lars-Göran Nilsson

This paper presents four domains of markers that have been found to predict later cognitive impairment and neurodegenerative disease. These four domains are (1) data patterns of memory performance, (2) cardiovascular factors, (3) genetic markers, and (4) brain activity. The critical features of each domain are illustrated with data from the longitudinal Betula Study on memory, aging, and health ( Nilsson et al., 1997 ; Nilsson et al., 2004 ). Up to now, early signs regarding these domains have been examined one by one and it has been found that they are associated with later cognitive impairment and neurodegenerative disease. However, it was also found that each marker accounts for only a very small part of the total variance, implying that single markers should not be used as predictors for cognitive decline or neurodegenerative disease. It is discussed whether modeling and simulations should be used as tools to combine markers at different levels to increase the amount of explained variance.


Methodology ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 142-148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pere J. Ferrando

In the IRT person-fluctuation model, the individual trait levels fluctuate within a single test administration whereas the items have fixed locations. This article studies the relations between the person and item parameters of this model and two central properties of item and test scores: temporal stability and external validity. For temporal stability, formulas are derived for predicting and interpreting item response changes in a test-retest situation on the basis of the individual fluctuations. As for validity, formulas are derived for obtaining disattenuated estimates and for predicting changes in validity in groups with different levels of fluctuation. These latter formulas are related to previous research in the person-fit domain. The results obtained and the relations discussed are illustrated with an empirical example.


2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 7-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Silke Astrid Eisenbeiß ◽  
Steffen R. Giessner

The present paper gives a review of empirical research on ethical leadership and shows that still little is known known about the contextual antecedents of ethical leadership. To address this important issue, a conceptual framework is developed that analyzes the embeddedness of organizational ethical leadership. This framework identifies manifest and latent contextual factors on three different levels of analysis – society, industry, and organization – which can affect the development and maintenance of ethical leadership. In particular, propositions are offered about how (1) societal characteristics, notably the implementation and the spirit of human rights in a society and societal cultural values of responsibility, justice, humanity, and transparency; (2) industry characteristics such as environmental complexity, the content of the organizational mandate, and the interests of stakeholder networks; and (3) intra-organizational characteristics, including the organizational ethical infrastructure and the ethical leadership behavior of a leader’s peer group, influence the development and maintenance of ethical leadership in organizations. This list of factors is not exhaustive, but illustrates how the three levels may impact ethical leadership. Implications for managerial practice and future research are discussed.


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